Western Kentucky at Boston College - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Boston College Eagles

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Boston College -7.5 (48.0) (-285) Open: -11.0
Boston College 21 - Western Kentucky: 20

Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BC 2nd straight Home Game
BC is playing their 5th straight game
WKU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Boston College -9.5 (SP+ BC -3)
Projected Score: WKU: 21 - BC: 30 (51)
BC Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
WKU Travel: 892 miles, 1 hrs behind

Eagles (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bill O'Brien (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 24 (34 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
BC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Western Kentucky at Alabama	+31.0	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/7	Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-18.5	59.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee	-10.5	53.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Western Kentucky vs Toledo	+2.0	60.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Western Kentucky at Boston College	+7.5	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Western Kentucky vs UTEP	-19.0	55.5	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/16	Western Kentucky at Sam Houston	+1.5	55.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/9	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	-18.0	53.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/16	Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech	-11.5	52.5	L 7 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/23	Western Kentucky at Liberty	+1.0	56.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State	+0.5	62.5	W 19 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/6	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	+4.5	58.5	L 12 - 52	O	N
Wed 12/18	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Boston College's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/2	Boston College at Florida State	+16.5	50.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Boston College vs Duquesne	-33.5	52.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Boston College at Missouri	+14.5	51.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Boston College vs Michigan State	-4.5	45.5	W 23 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/28	Boston College vs Western Kentucky	-7.5	48.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Boston College at Virginia	+2.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/17	Boston College at Virginia Tech	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 42	O	N
Fri 10/25	Boston College vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 27 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Boston College vs Syracuse	-5.5	51.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Boston College at SMU	+19.0	54.5	L 28 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boston College vs North Carolina	+2.0	50.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Boston College vs Pittsburgh	-3.5	50.5	W 34 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/28	Boston College vs Nebraska	+3.0	47.5	L 15 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	24.9	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	24.6	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)	28.2	41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)	23.8	40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)		38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)		48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)		41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)		40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	14	24.9	24.9	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19
BC Defense	13	23.8	20.7	42.2%	3.64	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	40%	44%	16%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	14	24.6	33.9	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21
BC Offense	13	28.2	34.1	40.9%	4	1.2	18	340	164	176	4.3	56%	44%	41%	41%	13%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7
Boston College	13	29:25	17.8	43%	50%	4.2	40	1.2	1.8	4.7	2	3	30.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)
BC Defense	13	45% (12)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	.05 (33)	2.84 (43)	82% (120)	9% (96)	0.92 (40)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)
BC Offense	13	56% (26)	41% (96)	38.2	164.2	4.3	22 (55)	.01 (120)	2.87 (99)	72% (79)	9% (53)	0.86 (120)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)
BC Defense	13	55% (123)	44% (104)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.23 (67)	1.4 (12)	32% (71)	29% (43)	.2 (26)	7% (36)	1.8 (22)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)
BC Offense	13	44% (108)	41% (78)	13.9	22.2	176.2	7.9	12.7	24 (38)	7 (26)	.34 (29)	1.9 (7)	30% (50)	32% (68)	.34 (68)	4% (12)	2.3 (11)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -8.09 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -8.09 Boston College: 4.395

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.2 Boston College: 1.2

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: 4.395 #51
Boston College's Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Boston College's Defense Rating: 8.62 #58
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Boston College's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Boston College's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #70
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #62
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #56

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.9
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.9

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Boston College 30
Western Kentucky 21

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Boston College 27
Western Kentucky 26

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Boston College 30
Western Kentucky 23

Total Points: 53

Boston College Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.1
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.7

Boston College's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Boston College	21	Western Kentucky	20	Boston College -7.5	Western Kentucky	48.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boston College	1	0	0 Overs
Western Kentucky	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#92) WKU at (#51) BC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	BC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#51
SP+SP+	#78	#70
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#56
OffenseOff	#60	#64
DefenseDef	#81	#33
Spec TeamsST	#79	#114
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#82

Western Kentucky Notes(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Boston College Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled NC, James OK, Def great in W
(11/18) Good fight @ SMU, QB James/Rgame meh, Def OK
(11/14) QB Castellanos entering the portal
(11/13) Rgame 321 yds, 6.7 ypc, att only 13 pass in Cuse W
(11/12) QB Cast. benched, James to start vs SMU
(11/8) No Kicking game, att only 1 FG, missed XPs
(10/17) Run D mauled by VT 368 yds, 9.2 ypc. Rgame bad
(10/6) Off bad, Rgame awful, 3 TO's in L @ UVA
(9/28) OG by WKU, Off awful w/ QB James. 3 TOs to W
(9/27) QB Castellanos out vs WKU (und inj)
(9/23) QB Cast. much improved. 10 TDs, 2 Ints so far
(9/23) Outgained by MSU but 4 TOs in big W
Boston College Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	BC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#33
SuccessSuc	#83	#74
ExplosiveExp	#33	#30
PPAPPA	#66	#56
PowerPwr	#71	#58
SP+SP+	#101	#56
Pts POPPO	#78	#51
HavocHav	#73	#72

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	BC Def
Run GameRun	#114	#30
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#40
Run ExplRExp	#75	#40
PPAExp	#121	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#67
TackleTak	-	#39

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	BC Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	#33	#104
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#12
PPAExp	#28	#67
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#62
F7 HavocF7	#87	#96
DB HavocDB	#56	#36

Boston College on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#81
SuccessSuc	#93	#102
ExplosiveExp	#42	#36
PPAPPA	#89	#95
PowerPwr	#75	#86
SP+SP+	#62	#62
Pts POPPO	#58	#54
HavocHav	#24	#122

Boston College Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#104	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#96	#113
Run ExplRExp	#120	#35
PPAExp	#120	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#64	#128
TackleTak	-	#6

Boston College Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#7	#128
PPAExp	#29	#99
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#35	#42
F7 HavocF7	#53	#88
DB HavocDB	#12	#132

Program Comparison
BC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alumni Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 67° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Boston College -7.5 (48.0)
Boston College won vs Western Kentucky this year (21-20)

Previous Matchups
Boston College beat Western Kentucky last year (21-20)

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Veltkamp	258	389	66%	3108	25	10	8.0
TJ Finley (Tr)	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	201	883	3	4.4	30
George Hart III (Tr)	44	204	2	4.6	30
Caden Veltkamp	113	150	7	1.3	25
LT Sanders	21	103	1	4.9	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)	75	925	7	12.3	51
Easton Messer	55	793	4	14.4	64
Dalvin Smith	30	397	4	13.2	65
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)	99	2	0	0	0
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2
Hosea Wheeler	62	4	2	2	0
Chandler Matthews (Tr)	59	3	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Thomas	54	7	4	3	0
Sebastian Benjamin	56	6	4	5	0
Kylan Guidry	45	7	3	0	1
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Johnson Jr.	48	5	0	1	6
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2

BC's OC Will Lawing (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Grayson James (Tr)	106	166	64%	1202	6	2	7.2
Thomas Castellanos	99	161	62%	1366	18	5	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kye Robichaux	175	744	10	4.3	41
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	77	406	2	5.3	36
Jordan Mcdonald (Tr)	53	361	3	6.8	41
Turbo Richard	55	278	2	5.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lewis Bond	67	689	3	10.3	49
Reed Harris	17	486	4	28.6	72
Kamari Morales (Tr)	28	325	6	11.6	54
Jeremiah Franklin	27	311	3	11.5	34

View Boston College's Full Roster

BC's DC Tim Lewis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3
Carter Davis	43	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Quintayvious Hutchins	29	6	4	8	0
Owen Stoudmire	29	4	3	2	0
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Ryan Turner (Tr)	13	2	1	0	4
Amari Jackson	18	0	0	0	4