Western Kentucky at Liberty - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Liberty Flames

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (1:00 PM EST)
Liberty -1 (56.5) (-112) Open: -1.0
Liberty 38 - Western Kentucky: 21 (Conference USA)

Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.4 MPH
LIB is playing their 5th straight game
WKU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -8 (SP+ LIB -2)
Projected Score: WKU: 23 - LIB: 31 (55)
LIB Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
WKU Travel: 402 miles, 1 hrs behind

Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (32 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Western Kentucky at Alabama	+31.0	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/7	Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-18.5	59.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee	-10.5	53.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Western Kentucky vs Toledo	+2.0	60.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Western Kentucky at Boston College	+7.5	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Western Kentucky vs UTEP	-19.0	55.5	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/16	Western Kentucky at Sam Houston	+1.5	55.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/9	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	-18.0	53.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/16	Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech	-11.5	52.5	L 7 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/23	Western Kentucky at Liberty	+1.0	56.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State	+0.5	62.5	W 19 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/6	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	+4.5	58.5	L 12 - 52	O	N
Wed 12/18	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Liberty's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Liberty vs Campbell	-41.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/7	Liberty at New Mexico State	-22.5	54.5	W 30 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Liberty vs UTEP	-23.5	57.5	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	Liberty vs East Carolina	-7.5	55.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8	Liberty vs Florida International	-15.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23	Liberty at Kennesaw State	-27.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Wed 10/30	Liberty vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	64.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/9	Liberty at Middle Tennessee	-12.5	54.5	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Liberty at Massachusetts	-17.0	53.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/23	Liberty vs Western Kentucky	-1.0	56.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Liberty at Sam Houston	-2.5	47.5	L 18 - 20	U	N
Sat 1/4	Liberty vs Buffalo	+4.5	50.5	L 7 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	24.9	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	24.6	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)	28.8	54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)	23.5	39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)		38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)		48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)		54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)		39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	14	24.9	24.9	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19
LIB Defense	12	23.5	22.3	39.4%	3.68	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	39%	40%	16%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	14	24.6	33.9	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21
LIB Offense	12	28.8	32.3	49.9%	4.21	1.3	22	400	238	161	5.7	63%	36%	54%	43%	14%	.26

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7
Liberty	12	28:42	22.1	45%	50%	6.7	64.4	1.3	1.3	5	1.6	0	28.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)
LIB Defense	12	55% (115)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	.02 (20)	2.68 (21)	73% (62)	10% (59)	0.99 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)
LIB Offense	12	63% (5)	54% (2)	41.8	238.3	5.7	28 (25)	.25 (16)	3.56 (7)	76% (47)	9% (43)	0.91 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)
LIB Defense	12	45% (19)	40% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.21 (51)	1.6 (77)	32% (73)	31% (81)	.18 (17)	6% (82)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)
LIB Offense	12	36% (130)	43% (60)	12.6	22.3	161.2	7.2	12.8	15 (98)	6 (10)	.27 (56)	1.5 (104)	24% (2)	36% (23)	.43 (26)	5% (36)	1.9 (107)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -8.09 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -8.09 Liberty: 2.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.2 Liberty: 0.2

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 2.89 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.9
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.9

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 31
Western Kentucky 23

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Kentucky 30
Liberty 22

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Liberty 30
Western Kentucky 24

Total Points: 54

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Liberty	38	Western Kentucky	21	Liberty -1	Liberty	56.5	Over
2023	10/24	Western Kentucky	29	Liberty	42	Liberty -4	Liberty	61.5	Over
2020	09/19	Western Kentucky	24	Liberty	30	Western Kentucky -15.5	Liberty	52.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	3	3	3 Overs
Western Kentucky	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#92) WKU at (#60) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	LIB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#60
SP+SP+	#78	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#36
OffenseOff	#60	#21
DefenseDef	#81	#73
Spec TeamsST	#79	#98
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#82

Western Kentucky Notes(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Liberty Notes(11/25) Rgame 400+ yds (WKU), W vs SHSU=CUSA title gm
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
(7/30) QB Salter is v good & mobile. Best backfield in G5?
Liberty Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	LIB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#73
SuccessSuc	#83	#39
ExplosiveExp	#33	#67
PPAPPA	#66	#24
PowerPwr	#71	#38
SP+SP+	#101	#70
Pts POPPO	#78	#58
HavocHav	#73	#71

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#114	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#30
Run ExplRExp	#75	#68
PPAExp	#121	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#21
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#28
TackleTak	-	#71

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#33	#66
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#77
PPAExp	#28	#51
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#67
F7 HavocF7	#87	#59
DB HavocDB	#56	#82

Liberty on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#81
SuccessSuc	#7	#102
ExplosiveExp	#131	#36
PPAPPA	#24	#95
PowerPwr	#17	#86
SP+SP+	#60	#62
Pts POPPO	#43	#54
HavocHav	#33	#122

Liberty Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#39	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	#113
Run ExplRExp	#94	#35
PPAExp	#16	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#7	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#9	#128
TackleTak	-	#6

Liberty Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#60	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#104	#128
PPAExp	#56	#99
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#42
F7 HavocF7	#43	#88
DB HavocDB	#36	#132

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 13
Liberty -1.0 (56.5)
Liberty won vs Western Kentucky this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Western Kentucky last year (38-21)
Liberty beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (42-29)

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Veltkamp	258	389	66%	3108	25	10	8.0
TJ Finley (Tr)	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	201	883	3	4.4	30
George Hart III (Tr)	44	204	2	4.6	30
Caden Veltkamp	113	150	7	1.3	25
LT Sanders	21	103	1	4.9	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)	75	925	7	12.3	51
Easton Messer	55	793	4	14.4	64
Dalvin Smith	30	397	4	13.2	65
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)	99	2	0	0	0
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2
Hosea Wheeler	62	4	2	2	0
Chandler Matthews (Tr)	59	3	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Thomas	54	7	4	3	0
Sebastian Benjamin	56	6	4	5	0
Kylan Guidry	45	7	3	0	1
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Johnson Jr.	48	5	0	1	6
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	147	261	56%	1886	15	6	7.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)	8	19	42%	88	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley	205	1254	13	6.1	44
Billy Lucas	123	720	5	5.9	55
Kaidon Salter	114	587	7	5.1	41
Vaughn Blue	35	207	1	5.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Treon Sibley	28	510	2	18.2	70
Elijah Canion (Tr)	25	354	3	14.2	50
Reese Smith	18	277	4	15.4	44
Tyson Mobley (Tr)	29	276	1	9.5	25

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Jerome Jolly Jr.	55	5	1	1	1
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0
Quinton Reese	40	5	2	1	0
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
A'Khori Jones	53	5	0	0	3