UTEP at New Mexico State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (4:00 PM EST)
New Mexico State -3.5 (51.5) (-170) Open: -2.5 | 51.5
UTEP 42 - New Mexico State: 35 (Conference USA)

Miners (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (20 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UTEP 2nd straight Road Game
NMSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico State -4 (SP+ NMSU -4)
Projected Score: UTEP: 24 - NMSU: 28 (51)
NMSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UTEP Travel: 38 miles

Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UTEP Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTEP's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UTEP at Nebraska	+27.5	49.0	L 7 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/7	UTEP vs Southern Utah	-6.5	54.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	UTEP at Liberty	+23.5	57.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	UTEP at Colorado State	+8.5	49.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/3	UTEP vs Sam Houston	+10.0	49.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/10	UTEP at Western Kentucky	+19.0	55.5	L 17 - 44	O	N
Wed 10/16	UTEP vs Florida International	+7.0	47.0	W 30 - 21	O	Y
Tue 10/22	UTEP at Louisiana Tech	+6.5	49.0	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	UTEP vs Middle Tennessee	-2.0	48.0	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	UTEP vs Kennesaw State	-4.5	42.0	W 43 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UTEP at Tennessee	+41.5	54.0	L 0 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/30	UTEP at New Mexico State	+3.5	51.5	W 42 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State	-9.5	52.5	W 23 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/7	New Mexico State vs Liberty	+22.5	54.5	L 24 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/14	New Mexico State at Fresno State	+19.5	48.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
Sat 9/21	New Mexico State at Sam Houston	+15.5	44.5	L 11 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/28	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+9.5	54.0	L 40 - 50	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9	New Mexico State at Jacksonville State	+21.0	58.5	L 13 - 54	O	N
Tue 10/15	New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech	+12.5	49.0	W 33 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	New Mexico State vs Florida International	+7.0	43.5	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/9	New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky	+18.0	53.5	L 28 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/16	New Mexico State at Texas A&M	+38.5	54.5	L 3 - 38	U	Y
Sat 11/23	New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5	54.0	W 36 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/30	New Mexico State vs UTEP	-3.5	51.5	L 35 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#80 (.17)	39% (103)	23.3	43% (62)	3.05 (83)	144	36% (113)	218	3.59 (93)	#109 (.25)	43% (88)	30.4	48% (122)	38% (23)	4.62 (127)	58.8	1.5	1
NMSU	#29 (.28)	47% (17)	21.6	52% (7)	3.57 (5)	199	42% (61)	214	3.98 (59)	#91 (.22)	45% (103)	27.6	46% (96)	44% (96)	3.73 (63)	58.3	1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Offense	12	23.3	20.2	39.5%	3.59	1.5	18	362	144	218	3.9	53%	46%	43%	36%	16%	.17
NMSU Defense	15	27.6	17.7	44.5%	3.73	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	44%	16%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Defense	12	30.4	37.4	43.4%	4.62	1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	48%	38%	15%	.25
NMSU Offense	15	21.6	23.2	47.3%	3.98	1	20	412	199	214	5.7	55%	45%	52%	42%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTEP	12	31:25	18.3	33%	45%	6.8	58.8	1.5	1	4.3	2	1	26.1
New Mexico State	15	31:28	20.5	43%	58%	6.2	58.3	1	0.9	5.5	2.1	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense	12	53% (42)	43% (62)	37.3	144.3	3.9	16 (89)	.09 (105)	3.05 (83)	76% (44)	9% (51)	0.89 (119)
NMSU Defense	15	47% (33)	46% (96)	-	-	-	-	.2 (103)	3.21 (95)	74% (73)	10% (70)	1.02 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense	12	57% (126)	48% (122)	-	-	-	-	.28 (127)	3.35 (113)	76% (89)	9% (106)	1.1 (112)
NMSU Offense	15	55% (31)	52% (7)	35.1	198.6	5.7	22 (51)	.27 (11)	3.57 (5)	81% (17)	8% (35)	0.96 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense	12	46% (94)	36% (113)	14.8	27.5	217.7	7.9	14.7	13 (111)	12 (85)	.29 (68)	1.9 (6)	32% (82)	29% (82)	.34 (65)	7% (104)	2.1 (37)
NMSU Defense	15	52% (108)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.25 (53)	1.5 (20)	29% (114)	30% (67)	.38 (102)	6% (83)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense	12	43% (8)	38% (23)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.26 (61)	1.7 (104)	32% (67)	31% (87)	.48 (126)	7% (50)	2.3 (128)
NMSU Offense	15	45% (100)	42% (61)	15.7	26.2	213.7	8.2	13.6	28 (23)	10 (56)	.33 (52)	1.7 (32)	29% (15)	34% (40)	.42 (41)	6% (61)	2 (68)

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -23.79 #127
UTEP's Offense Rating: 10.45 #128
UTEP's Defense Rating: 12.53 #95
2024 Talent Rating: 195.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
UTEP's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UTEP's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.7 #130
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -23.79 New Mexico State: -19.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -22.7 New Mexico State: -19.0

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -19.115 #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52 #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79 #119
2024 Talent Rating: 127.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.2
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

UTEP's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 28
UTEP 24

Projected Total Points: 51

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UTEP	31	New Mexico State	34	UTEP -4	New Mexico State	44.5	Over
2024	11/30	New Mexico State	35	UTEP	42	New Mexico State -3.5	UTEP	51.5	Over
2023	10/18	UTEP	7	New Mexico State	28	New Mexico State -3	New Mexico State	48.5	Under
2022	09/10	UTEP	20	New Mexico State	13	UTEP -17	New Mexico State	46.5	Under
2021	08/28	New Mexico State	3	UTEP	30	UTEP -9.5	UTEP	59.0	Under
2019	11/23	New Mexico State	44	UTEP	35	New Mexico State -8	New Mexico State	56.0	Over
2018	09/22	UTEP	20	New Mexico State	27	New Mexico State -4.5	New Mexico State	50.5	Under
2017	09/23	New Mexico State	41	UTEP	14	New Mexico State -17.5	New Mexico State	59.0	Under
2016	09/03	UTEP	38	New Mexico State	22	UTEP -3.5	UTEP	58.0	Over
2015	09/19	New Mexico State	47	UTEP	50	UTEP -4	New Mexico State	59.5	Over
2014	09/13	UTEP	42	New Mexico State	24	UTEP -11	UTEP	0
2013	09/14	New Mexico State	21	UTEP	42	UTEP -6.5	UTEP	0
2012	09/15	UTEP	41	New Mexico State	28
2011	09/17	New Mexico State	10	UTEP	16
2010	09/18	UTEP	42	New Mexico State	10
2009	09/19	New Mexico State	12	UTEP	38
2008	09/20	UTEP	33	New Mexico State	34
2007	09/15	New Mexico State	29	UTEP	24
2006	09/30	UTEP	44	New Mexico State	38
2005	09/03	New Mexico State	17	UTEP	34
2004	10/02	UTEP	45	New Mexico State	0
2002	10/05	New Mexico State	49	UTEP	14
2000	09/29	UTEP	41	New Mexico State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	8	7	5 Overs
UTEP	15	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 11	5 - 7	4 - 3	1 - 4
Road Teams	11 - 12	7 - 5	4 - 1	3 - 4

(#127) UTEP at (#129) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTEP	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#127	#129
SP+SP+	#130	#125
Perf GradeGrade	#130	#126
OffenseOff	#127	#130
DefenseDef	#105	#108
Spec TeamsST	#136	#72
TalentTal	#118	#128
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#53

UTEP Notes(12/11) Joining MWC on July 1, 2026
(10/23) Locklear benched in La Tech, Fr JD Pickles no arm
(10/18) QB Locklear #1 (benched earlier) w/ McConnell out
(10/17) Def 4 TOs, 3 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 FIU QBs knocked out
(10/16) Every Defensive starter listed as SR or GR
(10/10) Better vs WKU, expl plays. Def just can't hold up
(10/3) Off a mess, TO's, flags, drops. Def plays hard
(10/2) Def better than #'s, Off is awful. WR worst
(9/8) Outrushed 268-124 by S. Utah? Run D awful
(8/3) Front 7 decimated, will be bad vs run TY
(7/30) Portal 27 in/38 out, took 11 portals from A Peay
(7/30) QB Battle Locklear(A.P.)/McConnell some PT LY
UTEP Injury Report

New Mexico State Notes(10/29) QBs 7-19, 30 yds, 2 INT vs FIU. Pass Off #132
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?
(7/30) New HC Sanchez an awful hire, disaster at UNLV
New Mexico State Injury Report

UTEP on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#127	#108
SuccessSuc	#103	#103
ExplosiveExp	#49	#44
PPAPPA	#80	#91
PowerPwr	#128	#119
SP+SP+	#131	#127
Pts POPPO	#93	#63
HavocHav	#72	#83

UTEP Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#121	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#96
Run ExplRExp	#119	#80
PPAExp	#105	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#83	#95
Stuff RateStuff	#98	#87
TackleTak	-	#68

UTEP Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#96
Pass SuccessPSuc	#113	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#6	#20
PPAExp	#68	#53
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#130
F7 HavocF7	#51	#70
DB HavocDB	#104	#83

New Mexico State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UTEP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#130	#105
SuccessSuc	#17	#88
ExplosiveExp	#88	#90
PPAPPA	#29	#109
PowerPwr	#111	#95
SP+SP+	#120	#113
Pts POPPO	#59	#127
HavocHav	#34	#88

New Mexico State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#102	#86
Run SuccessRSuc	#7	#122
Run ExplRExp	#92	#112
PPAExp	#11	#127
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#5	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#72
TackleTak	-	#51

New Mexico State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#118
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	#23
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#104
PPAExp	#52	#61
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#103	#81
F7 HavocF7	#35	#106
DB HavocDB	#61	#50

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

UTEP 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
New Mexico State -3.5 (51.5)
UTEP won at New Mexico State this year (42-35)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat UTEP last year (34-31)
UTEP beat New Mexico State in 2024 (42-35)
New Mexico State beat UTEP in 2023 (28-7)

UTEP's OC Jake Brown (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	149	236	63%	1591	10	6	6.7
Cade McConnell	40	71	56%	540	4	3	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevon Jackson (Tr)	191	754	4	3.9	42
Ezell Jolly	64	248	1	3.9	14
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	80	237	2	3.0	18
JP Pickles	39	133	1	3.4	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenny Odom (Tr)	47	761	8	16.2	76
Kam Thomas (Tr)	46	512	2	11.1	69
Trey Goodman (Tr)	47	469	0	10.0	37
Jaden Smith (Tr)	21	177	0	8.4	41

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC J. J. Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Hopkins (Tr)	87	8	1	0	1
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurice Westmoreland	45	9	8	6	1
Kyran Duhon	43	7	7	0	2
Kadarion Johnson	39	8	4	1	1
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Josiah Allen	61	5	2	0	5
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Awad	74	159	47%	1079	7	4	6.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)	49	112	44%	519	3	5	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Seth McGowan	153	813	3	5.3	38
Michael Washington	158	713	8	4.5	47
Santino Marucci (Tr)	37	131	1	3.5	38
Larenzo McMillan	7	111	1	15.9	84

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Pride	34	374	2	11.0	53
Glynn Johnson Jr	19	346	2	18.2	54
Seth McGowan	23	277	3	12.0	43
Kordell David	18	191	0	10.6	38

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Da'Marcus Crosby	81	2	0	0	3
Tayden Barnes	57	2	0	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buddha Peleti	20	6	4	6	1
Kale Edwards (Tr)	36	7	4	4	0
Noah Arinze	16	5	3	1	0
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)	36	3	1	6
Tayden Barnes	57	2	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	2	5