Western Kentucky at Sam Houston Game Matchup
Western Kentucky logo Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston BearkatsSam Houston logo
Wednesday, October 16th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Sam Houston -1.5 (55.0) (-118)  Open: -1.0
Western Kentucky 31 - Sam Houston: 14  (Conference USA)

 
Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
SHSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Sam Houston -1   (SP+ WKU -4.5)

Projected Score: WKU: 25 - SHSU: 26 (47)
SHSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
WKU Travel: 677 miles
Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Western Kentucky at Alabama+31.060.0L 0 - 63ON
Sat 9/7 Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-18.559.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/14 Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee-10.553.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 9/21 Western Kentucky vs Toledo+2.060.5W 26 - 21UY
Sat 9/28 Western Kentucky at Boston College+7.548.0L 20 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10 Western Kentucky vs UTEP-19.055.5W 44 - 17OY
Wed 10/16 Western Kentucky at Sam Houston+1.555.0W 31 - 14UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30 Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State-24.049.0W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/9 Western Kentucky at New Mexico State-18.053.5W 41 - 28ON
Sat 11/16 Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech-11.552.5L 7 - 12UN
Sat 11/23 Western Kentucky at Liberty+1.056.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 11/30 Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State+0.562.5W 19 - 17UY
Fri 12/6 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State+4.558.5L 12 - 52ON
Wed 12/18 Western Kentucky vs James Madison+7.550.5L 17 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Sam Houston at Rice+9.549.0W 34 - 14UY
Sat 9/7 Sam Houston at UCF+21.553.5L 14 - 45ON
Sat 9/14 Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.548.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.544.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 9/28 Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.055.0W 40 - 39OY
Thu 10/3 Sam Houston at UTEP-10.049.5W 41 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16 Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.555.0L 14 - 31UN
Tue 10/22 Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.047.0W 10 - 7UN
Tue 10/29 Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.545.5W 9 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.042.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 11/23 Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.557.5L 11 - 21UN
Fri 11/29 Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.547.5W 20 - 18UY
Thu 12/19 Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.548.0W 31 - 26OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#47 (.22)40% (92)24.938% (119)3.07 (78)10741% (70)2954.95 (6)#81 (.2)44% (98)24.648% (121)41% (53)4 (87)36.81.81.8
SHSU#115 (.1)37% (118)23.834% (130)2.61 (131)8940% (84)2223.47 (97)#69 (.18)41% (58)20.541% (55)42% (75)3.77 (64)42.21.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SHSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Offense1324.924.940%4.951.8204021072953.938%61%38%41%16%.22
SHSU Defense1220.515.241.3%3.771.7 - - - - - 53%47%41%42%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Defense1324.633.944%41.8 - - - - - 52%47%48%41%14%.2
SHSU Offense1223.82136.9%3.471.318311892222.943%55%34%40%15%.1

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Kentucky1329:3220.243%62%4.536.81.81.84.42128.2
Sam Houston1229:4118.336%59%5.142.21.31.74.31.4228
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Offense1338% (128)38% (119)27.5106.63.912 (116).06 (117)3.07 (78)76% (45)8% (23)0.93 (99)
SHSU Defense1253% (104)41% (55) - - - - .16 (80)3.2 (92)79% (104)8% (119)1.02 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Defense1352% (94)48% (121) - - - - .19 (98)3.47 (125)73% (65)9% (109)0.96 (45)
SHSU Offense1243% (110)34% (130)30.789.12.913 (108)-.02 (129)2.61 (131)83% (7)9% (56)0.81 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Offense1361% (6)41% (70)26.441.5295.27.111.238 (3)14 (107).35 (42)1.7 (29)33% (90)31% (69).39 (46)9% (128)2.4 (4)
SHSU Defense1247% (32)42% (75) - - - - - - 13 (26).23 (49)1.5 (24)31% (79)27% (25).26 (41)6% (87)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Defense1347% (37)41% (53) - - - - - - 15 (15).27 (64)1.6 (69)31% (80)32% (99).37 (97)6% (81)1.9 (26)
SHSU Offense1255% (25)40% (84)23.537.3222.369.515 (96)12 (85).24 (81)1.4 (127)34% (105)24% (124).17 (112)6% (55)1.9 (119)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -8.09 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 406.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -8.09   Sam Houston: -4.36

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.2   Sam Houston: -6.9




Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -4.36 #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
2024 Talent Rating: 330.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.9
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.9

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Sam Houston 26
Western Kentucky 25


Projected Total Points: 47
Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/16Sam Houston14Western Kentucky31Western KentuckySam Houston -1.5Western Kentucky55.0Under
202311/18Western Kentucky28Sam Houston23Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -12.5Sam Houston52.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Sam Houston010 Overs
Western Kentucky212 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 12 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#92) Western Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.09 #92
Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62
Talent Rating: 406.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Western Kentucky Notes
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
Western Kentucky     Ratings Matchup     Sam Houston
Power #92
#88
Off #71
#110
Def #86
#54
Talent #116
#125
SP+ #78
#98
SP+ Off #101
#117
SP+ Def #62
#46

Rematch from Week 8
Sam Houston -1.5 (55.0)
Western Kentucky won at Sam Houston this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston last year (31-14)
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston in 2023 (28-23)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bowers Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 64° - Wind: 6 mph


Team Information
Injuries: WKU | SHSU
Depth Chart: WKU | SHSU
Rosters: WKU | SHSU
(#88) Sam Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.36 #88
Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46
Talent Rating: 330.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.97 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Sam Houston Notes
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great
(7/30) 2nd year in FBS/CUSA, started 0-8, won 3/4 late
(7/30) New QB Bauer (CMU starter) should have good WR
(7/30) 4/5 OL and top 2 RB back, improve poor run off LY?


  
Western Kentucky's OC Will Friend
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Veltkamp25838966%310825108.0
TJ Finley (Tr)487564%490126.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
George Hart III (Tr)4420424.630
Caden Veltkamp11315071.325
LT Sanders2110314.931
Jalen Hampton (Tr)115705.214
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)75925712.351
Easton Messer55793414.464
K.D. Hutchinson26392315.174
River Helms19228212.033

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster
Western Kentucky's DC Tyson Summers
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)992000
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)632002
Hosea Wheeler624220
Chandler Matthews (Tr)593031
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius Thomas547430
Kylan Guidry457301
Hosea Wheeler624220
Deante McCray553220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Johnson Jr.485016
Kent Robinson (Tr)334204
Zach Edwards (Tr)112122

Sam Houston's OC Brad Cornelsen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson15225360%15981186.3
Jase Bauer (Tr)406562%310214.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jevyon Ducker14871974.986
Hunter Watson15262374.146
DJ McKinney9547935.059
Jase Bauer (Tr)4519504.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Simeon Evans43474511.064
Qua'Vez Humphreys18362420.167
Michael Phoenix II13205315.850
Jevyon Ducker1511007.331

View Sam Houston's Full Roster
Sam Houston's DC Skyler Cassity
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver863016
Trey Fields726121
Antavious Fish672111
Isaiah Cash582109
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Murray3412620
Briceon Hayes267532
Richard Outland155330
Kendrick DuJour234310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Cash582109
Caleb Weaver863016
David Fisher332006