Western Kentucky at Sam Houston - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats

Wednesday, October 16th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Sam Houston -1.5 (55.0) (-118) Open: -1.0
Western Kentucky 31 - Sam Houston: 14 (Conference USA)

Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SHSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Sam Houston -1 (SP+ WKU -4.5)
Projected Score: WKU: 27 - SHSU: 28 (55)
SHSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
WKU Travel: 677 miles

Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (18 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
SHSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Western Kentucky at Alabama	+31.0	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/7	Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-18.5	59.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee	-10.5	53.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Western Kentucky vs Toledo	+2.0	60.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Western Kentucky at Boston College	+7.5	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Western Kentucky vs UTEP	-19.0	55.5	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/16	Western Kentucky at Sam Houston	+1.5	55.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/9	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	-18.0	53.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/16	Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech	-11.5	52.5	L 7 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/23	Western Kentucky at Liberty	+1.0	56.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State	+0.5	62.5	W 19 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/6	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	+4.5	58.5	L 12 - 52	O	N
Wed 12/18	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Sam Houston at Rice	+9.5	49.0	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Sam Houston at UCF	+21.5	53.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/14	Sam Houston vs Hawai'i	-3.5	48.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Sam Houston vs New Mexico State	-15.5	44.5	W 31 - 11	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Sam Houston vs Texas State	+11.0	55.0	W 40 - 39	O	Y
Thu 10/3	Sam Houston at UTEP	-10.0	49.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16	Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky	-1.5	55.0	L 14 - 31	U	N
Tue 10/22	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-5.0	47.0	W 10 - 7	U	N
Tue 10/29	Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech	-10.5	45.5	W 9 - 3	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Sam Houston at Kennesaw State	-21.0	42.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/23	Sam Houston at Jacksonville State	+5.5	57.5	L 11 - 21	U	N
Fri 11/29	Sam Houston vs Liberty	+2.5	47.5	W 20 - 18	U	Y
Thu 12/19	Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern	+3.5	48.0	W 31 - 26	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#47 (.22)	40% (92)	29.5	38% (119)	3.07 (78)	107	41% (70)	295	4.95 (6)	#81 (.2)	44% (98)	22.8	48% (121)	41% (53)	4 (87)	36.8	1.8	1.8
SHSU	#115 (.1)	37% (118)	17.8	34% (130)	2.61 (131)	89	40% (84)	222	3.47 (97)	#69 (.18)	41% (58)	37.8	41% (55)	42% (75)	3.77 (64)	42.2	1.3	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	13	29.5	24.5	40%	4.95	1.8	20	402	107	295	3.9	38%	61%	38%	41%	16%	.22
SHSU Defense	12	37.8	37.8	41.3%	3.77	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	41%	42%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	13	22.8	28	44%	4	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	48%	41%	14%	.2
SHSU Offense	12	17.8	17.8	36.9%	3.47	1.3	18	311	89	222	2.9	43%	55%	34%	40%	15%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	13	29:32	20.2	43%	62%	4.5	36.8	1.8	1.8	4.4	2	1	28.2
Sam Houston	12	29:41	18.3	36%	59%	5.1	42.2	1.3	1.7	4.3	1.4	2	28

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (119)	27.5	106.6	3.9	12 (116)	.06 (117)	3.07 (78)	76% (45)	8% (23)	0.93 (99)
SHSU Defense	12	53% (104)	41% (55)	-	-	-	-	.16 (80)	3.2 (92)	79% (104)	8% (119)	1.02 (82)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	13	52% (94)	48% (121)	-	-	-	-	.19 (98)	3.47 (125)	73% (65)	9% (109)	0.96 (45)
SHSU Offense	12	43% (110)	34% (130)	30.7	89.1	2.9	13 (108)	-.02 (129)	2.61 (131)	83% (7)	9% (56)	0.81 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	13	61% (6)	41% (70)	26.4	41.5	295.2	7.1	11.2	38 (3)	14 (107)	.35 (42)	1.7 (29)	33% (90)	31% (69)	.39 (46)	9% (128)	2.4 (4)
SHSU Defense	12	47% (32)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.23 (49)	1.5 (24)	31% (79)	27% (25)	.26 (41)	6% (87)	2.1 (88)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	13	47% (37)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.27 (64)	1.6 (69)	31% (80)	32% (99)	.37 (97)	6% (81)	1.9 (26)
SHSU Offense	12	55% (25)	40% (84)	23.5	37.3	222.3	6	9.5	15 (96)	12 (85)	.24 (81)	1.4 (127)	34% (105)	24% (124)	.17 (112)	6% (55)	1.9 (119)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -8.09 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 203.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -8.09 Sam Houston: -4.36

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.2 Sam Houston: -6.9

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -4.36 #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
2024 Talent Rating: 163.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Sam Houston 28
Western Kentucky 27

Projected Total Points: 55

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.8

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/23	Western Kentucky	41	Sam Houston	24	Western Kentucky -9.5	Western Kentucky	60.5	Over
2024	10/16	Sam Houston	14	Western Kentucky	31	Sam Houston -1.5	Western Kentucky	55.0	Under
2023	11/18	Western Kentucky	28	Sam Houston	23	Western Kentucky -12.5	Sam Houston	52.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sam Houston	0	1	1 Overs
Western Kentucky	3	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 0	2 - 1

(#92) WKU at (#88) SHSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	SHSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#88
SP+SP+	#78	#98
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#95
OffenseOff	#60	#104
DefenseDef	#81	#75
Spec TeamsST	#79	#105
TalentTal	#114	#125
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#102

Western Kentucky Notes(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Sam Houston Notes(12/1) HC Keeler left for Temple? From PA but why?
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great
(7/30) 2nd year in FBS/CUSA, started 0-8, won 3/4 late
(7/30) New QB Bauer (CMU starter) should have good WR
(7/30) 4/5 OL and top 2 RB back, improve poor run off LY?
(7/30) Def returns but new DC. Roster most CUSA exp'd
Sam Houston Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	SHSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#75
SuccessSuc	#92	#58
ExplosiveExp	#8	#39
PPAPPA	#47	#69
PowerPwr	#71	#54
SP+SP+	#101	#46
Pts POPPO	#6	#64
HavocHav	#74	#117

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#114	#121
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#55
Run ExplRExp	#99	#82
PPAExp	#117	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#112
TackleTak	-	#48

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#75
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#24
PPAExp	#42	#49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#34
F7 HavocF7	#23	#119
DB HavocDB	#128	#87

Sam Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#81
SuccessSuc	#118	#98
ExplosiveExp	#120	#41
PPAPPA	#115	#81
PowerPwr	#110	#86
SP+SP+	#117	#62
Pts POPPO	#97	#87
HavocHav	#56	#114

Sam Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#103	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#130	#121
Run ExplRExp	#130	#45
PPAExp	#129	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#111	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#55	#118
TackleTak	-	#6

Sam Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#97	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#84	#53
Pass ExplPExl	#127	#69
PPAExp	#81	#64
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#71	#42
F7 HavocF7	#56	#109
DB HavocDB	#55	#81

Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bowers Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Sam Houston -1.5 (55.0)
Western Kentucky won at Sam Houston this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston last year (41-24)
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston in 2024 (31-14)
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston in 2023 (28-23)

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Veltkamp	258	389	66%	3108	25	10	8.0
TJ Finley (Tr)	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	201	883	3	4.4	30
George Hart III (Tr)	44	204	2	4.6	30
Caden Veltkamp	113	150	7	1.3	25
LT Sanders	21	103	1	4.9	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)	75	925	7	12.3	51
Easton Messer	55	793	4	14.4	64
Dalvin Smith	30	397	4	13.2	65
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)	99	2	0	0	0
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2
Hosea Wheeler	62	4	2	2	0
Chandler Matthews (Tr)	59	3	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Thomas	54	7	4	3	0
Sebastian Benjamin	56	6	4	5	0
Kylan Guidry	45	7	3	0	1
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Johnson Jr.	48	5	0	1	6
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hunter Watson	152	253	60%	1598	11	8	6.3
Jase Bauer (Tr)	40	65	62%	310	2	1	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevyon Ducker	148	719	7	4.9	86
Hunter Watson	152	623	7	4.1	46
DJ McKinney	95	479	3	5.0	59
Jase Bauer (Tr)	45	195	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Simeon Evans	43	474	5	11.0	64
Qua'Vez Humphreys	18	362	4	20.1	67
Noah Smith	35	285	0	8.1	22
Ife Adeyi	26	238	1	9.2	32

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Weaver	86	3	0	1	6
Kavian Gaither	84	8	0	5	2
Trey Fields	72	6	1	2	1
Isaiah Cash	58	2	1	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Murray	34	12	6	2	0
Briceon Hayes	26	7	5	3	2
Isaiah Nixon	19	6	4	5	0
Richard Outland	15	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Cash	58	2	1	0	9
Caleb Weaver	86	3	0	1	6
David Fisher	33	2	0	0	6