Western Kentucky at Sam Houston - 2024 Matchup Preview
Western Kentucky logo Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston BearkatsSam Houston logo
Wednesday, October 16th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Sam Houston -1.5 (55.0) (-118)  Open: -1.0
Western Kentucky 31 - Sam Houston: 14  (Conference USA)

 
Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SHSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Sam Houston -1  (SP+ WKU -4.5)

Projected Score: WKU: 26 - SHSU: 27 (53)
SHSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
WKU Travel: 677 miles
Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Western Kentucky at Alabama+31.060.0L 0 - 63ON
Sat 9/7 Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-18.559.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/14 Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee-10.553.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 9/21 Western Kentucky vs Toledo+2.060.5W 26 - 21UY
Sat 9/28 Western Kentucky at Boston College+7.548.0L 20 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10 Western Kentucky vs UTEP-19.055.5W 44 - 17OY
Wed 10/16 Western Kentucky at Sam Houston+1.555.0W 31 - 14UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30 Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State-24.049.0W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/9 Western Kentucky at New Mexico State-18.053.5W 41 - 28ON
Sat 11/16 Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech-11.552.5L 7 - 12UN
Sat 11/23 Western Kentucky at Liberty+1.056.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 11/30 Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State+0.562.5W 19 - 17UY
Fri 12/6 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State+4.558.5L 12 - 52ON
Wed 12/18 Western Kentucky vs James Madison+7.550.5L 17 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Sam Houston at Rice+9.549.0W 34 - 14UY
Sat 9/7 Sam Houston at UCF+21.553.5L 14 - 45ON
Sat 9/14 Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.548.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.544.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 9/28 Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.055.0W 40 - 39OY
Thu 10/3 Sam Houston at UTEP-10.049.5W 41 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16 Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.555.0L 14 - 31UN
Tue 10/22 Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.047.0W 10 - 7UN
Tue 10/29 Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.545.5W 9 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.042.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 11/23 Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.557.5L 11 - 21UN
Fri 11/29 Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.547.5W 20 - 18UY
Thu 12/19 Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.548.0W 31 - 26OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)24.938% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)24.648% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)23.841% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)20.547% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Offense1424.924.941.8%3.831.7193741102653.545%55%38%45%16%.19
SHSU Defense1320.515.241.8%3.842.1 - - - - - 51%48%47%37%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Defense1424.633.944.7%3.661.5 - - - - - 63%36%48%40%13%.21
SHSU Offense1323.82139.3%2.971.2193491801684.357%43%41%38%15%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Kentucky1427:5219.341%59%4.141.31.71.54.91.6029.7
Sam Houston1332:1018.839%67%4.637.91.22.15.42.2230.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Offense1445% (105)38% (117)31.1109.73.514 (98).01 (121)2.78 (108)69% (100)11% (87)0.95 (75)
SHSU Defense1351% (74)47% (105) - - - - .17 (92)3.37 (119)75% (75)10% (56)0.83 (9)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Defense1463% (134)48% (113) - - - - .19 (103)3.36 (116)77% (93)9% (88)0.9 (35)
SHSU Offense1357% (25)41% (100)42.5180.44.321 (59).1 (83)3.18 (44)68% (104)10% (69)0.9 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Offense1455% (26)45% (33)22.133.5264.67.91228 (15)12 (85).36 (28)1.6 (59)33% (91)30% (91).29 (89)6% (56)1.9 (100)
SHSU Defense1348% (60)37% (27) - - - - - - 16 (10).06 (6)1.4 (9)32% (57)25% (11).21 (32)6% (58)1.8 (12)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Defense1436% (1)40% (60) - - - - - - 10 (66).29 (99)1.8 (128)28% (116)29% (47).23 (37)3% (132)2.1 (92)
SHSU Offense1343% (113)38% (105)16.726.8168.26.310.115 (98)9 (48).13 (114)1.5 (106)30% (51)24% (126).13 (130)5% (47)2 (95)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -8.09  #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32  #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86  #86
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2  #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -8.09   Sam Houston: -4.36

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.2   Sam Houston: -6.9




Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -4.36  #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75  #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81  #54
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9  #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0  #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8  #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.9
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.9

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Sam Houston 27
Western Kentucky 26


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Sam Houston 27
Western Kentucky 26

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Sam Houston 26
Western Kentucky 22

Total Points: 48
Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/23Western Kentucky41Sam Houston24Western Kentucky -9.5Western Kentucky60.5Over
202410/16Sam Houston14Western Kentucky31Sam Houston -1.5Western Kentucky55.0Under
202311/18Western Kentucky28Sam Houston23Western Kentucky -12.5Sam Houston52.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Sam Houston011 Overs
Western Kentucky322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 21 - 20 - 0
Road Teams1 - 22 - 10 - 02 - 1

(#92) WKU at (#88) SHSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWKUSHSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #92 #88
SP+SP+ #78 #98
Perf GradeGrade #64 #95
OffenseOff #60 #104
DefenseDef #81 #75
Spec TeamsST #79 #105
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #82 #102
Western Kentucky Notes
(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report
Sam Houston Notes
(12/1) HC Keeler left for Temple? From PA but why?
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great
(7/30) 2nd year in FBS/CUSA, started 0-8, won 3/4 late
(7/30) New QB Bauer (CMU starter) should have good WR
(7/30) 4/5 OL and top 2 RB back, improve poor run off LY?
(7/30) Def returns but new DC. Roster most CUSA exp'd
Sam Houston Injury Report
Western Kentucky on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
WKU OffSHSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #60 #75
SuccessSuc #83 #70
ExplosiveExp #33 #3
PPAPPA #66 #31
PowerPwr #71 #54
SP+SP+ #101 #46
Pts POPPO #78 #75
HavocHav #73 #58
Western Kentucky Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
WKU OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #114 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #117 #105
Run ExplRExp #75 #9
PPAExp #121 #92
Run BlockR Blk #82 -
OL YdsOLY #108 #119
Stuff RateStuff #103 #129
TackleTak -  #48
Western Kentucky Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
WKU OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #26 #40
Pass SuccessPSuc #33 #27
Pass ExplPExl #59 #9
PPAExp #28 #6
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #5 #34
F7 HavocF7 #87 #56
DB HavocDB #56 #58
Sam Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatSHSU OffWKU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #104 #81
SuccessSuc #107 #102
ExplosiveExp #127 #36
PPAPPA #115 #95
PowerPwr #110 #86
SP+SP+ #117 #62
Pts POPPO #129 #54
HavocHav #53 #122
Sam Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffWKU Def
Run GameRun #103 #98
Run SuccessRSuc #100 #113
Run ExplRExp #98 #35
PPAExp #83 #103
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #44 #116
Stuff RateStuff #34 #128
TackleTak -  #6
Sam Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatSHSU OffWKU Def
Pass GamePass #97 #90
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #60
Pass ExplPExl #106 #128
PPAExp #114 #99
Pass Block/RushP Blk #71 #42
F7 HavocF7 #69 #88
DB HavocDB #47 #132
Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bowers Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 64° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Sam Houston -1.5 (55.0)
Western Kentucky won at Sam Houston this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston last year (31-14)
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston in 2023 (28-23)

  
WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Veltkamp25838966%310825108.0
TJ Finley (Tr)487564%490126.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Young20188334.430
George Hart III (Tr)4420424.630
Caden Veltkamp11315071.325
LT Sanders2110314.931
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)75925712.351
Easton Messer55793414.464
Dalvin Smith30397413.265
K.D. Hutchinson26392315.174

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)992000
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)632002
Hosea Wheeler624220
Chandler Matthews (Tr)593031
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius Thomas547430
Sebastian Benjamin566450
Kylan Guidry457301
Kent Robinson (Tr)334204
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Johnson Jr.485016
Kent Robinson (Tr)334204
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)632002

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson15225360%15981186.3
Jase Bauer (Tr)406562%310214.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jevyon Ducker14871974.986
Hunter Watson15262374.146
DJ McKinney9547935.059
Jase Bauer (Tr)4519504.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Simeon Evans43474511.064
Qua'Vez Humphreys18362420.167
Noah Smith3528508.122
Ife Adeyi2623819.232

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver863016
Kavian Gaither848052
Trey Fields726121
Isaiah Cash582109
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Murray3412620
Briceon Hayes267532
Isaiah Nixon196450
Richard Outland155330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Cash582109
Caleb Weaver863016
David Fisher332006