Middle Tennessee at UTEP - 2024 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at UTEP Miners

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
UTEP -2 (48.0) (-122) Open: -2.5
Middle Tennessee 20 - UTEP: 13 (Conference USA)

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (14 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.7 MPH
MTSU 2nd straight Road Game
UTEP is playing their 5th straight game
MTSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UTEP -3.5 (SP+ UTEP -2)
Projected Score: MTSU: 23 - UTEP: 27 (50)
UTEP Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
MTSU Travel: 1188 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Miners (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scotty Walden (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 20 - 32 (26 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
UTEP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech	-11.5
Sat 9/7	Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss	+42.5	60.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/14	Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky	+10.5	53.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Middle Tennessee vs Duke	+14.5	51.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Memphis	+27.0	62.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech	+5.0	48.0	L 21 - 48	O	N
Tue 10/15	Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State	-8.5	50.0	W 14 - 5	U	Y
Wed 10/23	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+20.5	64.5	L 20 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/2	Middle Tennessee at UTEP	+2.0	48.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Middle Tennessee vs Liberty	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State	-3.5	54.0	L 21 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/30	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+9.5	50.5	L 24 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

UTEP's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UTEP at Nebraska	+27.5	49.0	L 7 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/7	UTEP vs Southern Utah	-6.5	54.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	UTEP at Liberty	+23.5	57.5	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	UTEP at Colorado State	+8.5	49.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/3	UTEP vs Sam Houston	+10.0	49.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Thu 10/10	UTEP at Western Kentucky	+19.0	55.5	L 17 - 44	O	N
Wed 10/16	UTEP vs Florida International	+7.0	47.0	W 30 - 21	O	Y
Tue 10/22	UTEP at Louisiana Tech	+6.5	49.0	L 10 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	UTEP vs Middle Tennessee	-2.0	48.0	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	UTEP vs Kennesaw State	-4.5	42.0	W 43 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UTEP at Tennessee	+41.5	54.0	L 0 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/30	UTEP at New Mexico State	+3.5	51.5	W 42 - 35	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)	18.1	38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)	34.3	50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)	19.5	38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)	32.3	40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)		38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)		50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)		38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)		40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	12	18.1	14.2	39.4%	3	1.6	18	352	91	261	3.2	41%	59%	38%	40%	19%	.13
UTEP Defense	12	32.3	28.8	39.7%	3.85	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	40%	39%	18%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	12	34.3	35.8	49.4%	4.61	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	49%	14%	.32
UTEP Offense	12	19.5	26.2	37%	2.81	1.6	17	321	121	200	3.3	52%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.07

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	12	30:15	18.2	38%	48%	7.3	61.3	1.6	0.8	4.6	1.7	1	25.2
UTEP	12	27:57	16.7	33%	30%	5.7	50.9	1.6	1.5	7.1	2.9	2	27.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	12	41% (123)	38% (114)	27.9	90.5	3.2	10 (122)	.04 (110)	2.82 (104)	56% (132)	11% (100)	0.98 (62)
UTEP Defense	12	54% (103)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	.07 (40)	2.85 (44)	59% (7)	12% (18)	1.07 (102)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	12	54% (104)	50% (124)	-	-	-	-	.19 (107)	3.19 (97)	72% (61)	9% (100)	0.97 (59)
UTEP Offense	12	52% (56)	38% (118)	36.4	120.8	3.3	9 (125)	.02 (118)	2.8 (106)	59% (127)	13% (125)	0.88 (114)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	12	59% (11)	40% (83)	22.8	35.6	261.1	7.3	11.5	16 (87)	10 (63)	.19 (95)	1.5 (102)	32% (84)	25% (123)	.17 (121)	7% (112)	1.9 (113)
UTEP Defense	12	46% (36)	39% (46)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.21 (54)	1.7 (115)	34% (34)	30% (56)	.28 (59)	6% (66)	2.1 (75)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	12	46% (33)	49% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.47 (129)	1.6 (90)	27% (127)	34% (109)	.53 (128)	5% (101)	2.3 (128)
UTEP Offense	12	47% (81)	36% (117)	18.6	30.4	200	6.6	10.8	15 (98)	12 (85)	.15 (108)	1.5 (112)	34% (111)	23% (128)	.23 (104)	7% (110)	2.2 (20)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -24.28 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.28 UTEP: -20.745

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.4 UTEP: -22.7

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -20.745 #127
UTEP's Offense Rating: 10.45 #128
UTEP's Defense Rating: 12.53 #95
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
UTEP's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UTEP's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.7 #130
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UTEP 27
Middle Tennessee 23

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
UTEP 28
Middle Tennessee 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
UTEP 29
Middle Tennessee 23

Total Points: 52

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 19.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.2
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

UTEP's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	UTEP	13	Middle Tennessee	20	UTEP -2	Middle Tennessee	48.0	Under
2023	11/18	Middle Tennessee	34	UTEP	30	Middle Tennessee -8.5	UTEP	48.5	Over
2022	10/29	UTEP	13	Middle Tennessee	24	UTEP -2.5	Middle Tennessee	52.0	Under
2018	11/10	UTEP	32	Middle Tennessee	48	Middle Tennessee -13.5	Middle Tennessee	49.0	Over
2017	11/04	Middle Tennessee	30	UTEP	3	Middle Tennessee -20	Middle Tennessee	50.0	Under
2014	11/29	UTEP	24	Middle Tennessee	21	UTEP -3	Push	0
2013	11/30	Middle Tennessee	48	UTEP	17	Middle Tennessee -21	Middle Tennessee	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTEP	1	1	2 Overs
Middle Tennessee	6	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 3	2 - 4	2 - 3	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 4	4 - 2	1 - 0	3 - 2

(#130) MTSU at (#127) UTEP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	UTEP
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#130	#127
SP+SP+	#131	#130
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#130
OffenseOff	#125	#127
DefenseDef	#129	#105
Spec TeamsST	#120	#136
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Middle Tennessee Notes(8/3) Will start 1-4, watch after bye on Oct 3
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)
(7/30) A D Mason team has to win with Off? Sept rough
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

UTEP Notes(12/11) Joining MWC on July 1, 2026
(10/23) Locklear benched in La Tech, Fr JD Pickles no arm
(10/18) QB Locklear #1 (benched earlier) w/ McConnell out
(10/17) Def 4 TOs, 3 sacks, 7 TFL, 2 FIU QBs knocked out
(10/16) Every Defensive starter listed as SR or GR
(10/10) Better vs WKU, expl plays. Def just can't hold up
(10/3) Off a mess, TO's, flags, drops. Def plays hard
(10/2) Def better than #'s, Off is awful. WR worst
(9/8) Outrushed 268-124 by S. Utah? Run D awful
(8/3) Front 7 decimated, will be bad vs run TY
(7/30) Portal 27 in/38 out, took 11 portals from A Peay
(7/30) QB Battle Locklear(A.P.)/McConnell some PT LY
UTEP Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	UTEP Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#105
SuccessSuc	#105	#42
ExplosiveExp	#53	#111
PPAPPA	#107	#46
PowerPwr	#105	#95
SP+SP+	#131	#113
Pts POPPO	#128	#78
HavocHav	#113	#34

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#77	#86
Run SuccessRSuc	#114	#42
Run ExplRExp	#62	#102
PPAExp	#110	#40
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#104	#44
Stuff RateStuff	#125	#34
TackleTak	-	#51

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#33	#118
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#46
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#115
PPAExp	#95	#54
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#136	#81
F7 HavocF7	#100	#18
DB HavocDB	#112	#66

UTEP on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#127	#129
SuccessSuc	#124	#130
ExplosiveExp	#125	#71
PPAPPA	#121	#129
PowerPwr	#128	#131
SP+SP+	#131	#122
Pts POPPO	#132	#126
HavocHav	#126	#108

UTEP Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#121	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#124
Run ExplRExp	#114	#59
PPAExp	#118	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#106	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#118	#62
TackleTak	-	#83

UTEP Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	UTEP Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#127
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#90
PPAExp	#108	#129
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#100	#131
F7 HavocF7	#125	#100
DB HavocDB	#110	#101

Program Comparison
UTEP 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 80° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 10
UTEP -2.0 (48.0)
Middle Tennessee won at UTEP this year (20-13)

Previous Matchups
Middle Tennessee beat UTEP last year (20-13)
Middle Tennessee beat UTEP in 2023 (34-30)
Middle Tennessee beat UTEP in 2022 (24-13)

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	269	418	64%	3092	16	10	7.4
Roman Gagliano	4	9	44%	41	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle	109	471	4	4.3	66
Jekail Middlebrook	60	273	2	4.6	24
Terry Wilkins	54	214	1	4.0	23
Nick Vattiato	86	77	1	0.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis	53	871	6	16.4	61
Omari Kelly (Tr)	53	869	4	16.4	71
Myles Butler	30	366	3	12.2	61
Cam'Ron Lacy	20	190	0	9.5	44

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	0	0	3
Parker Hughes	69	2	0	1	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrell Raby	16	0	6
Marvae Myers-Glover	41	1	4
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	3

UTEP's OC Jake Brown (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	149	236	63%	1591	10	6	6.7
Cade McConnell	40	71	56%	540	4	3	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevon Jackson (Tr)	191	754	4	3.9	42
Ezell Jolly	64	248	1	3.9	14
Skyler Locklear (Tr)	80	237	2	3.0	18
JP Pickles	39	133	1	3.4	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kenny Odom (Tr)	47	761	8	16.2	76
Kam Thomas (Tr)	46	512	2	11.1	69
Trey Goodman (Tr)	47	469	0	10.0	37
Jaden Smith (Tr)	21	177	0	8.4	41

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC J. J. Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Hopkins (Tr)	87	8	1	0	1
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurice Westmoreland	45	9	8	6	1
Kyran Duhon	43	7	7	0	2
Kadarion Johnson	39	8	4	1	1
Kory Chapman (Tr)	76	13	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Smith (Tr)	78	1	0	0	5
Josiah Allen	61	5	2	0	5
Nate Dyman	84	10	2	3	4