Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky

Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky - 2024 Matchup Preview

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (4:00 PM EST)
Jacksonville State -0.5 (62.5) (-110) Open: -1.5 | 60.5
Western Kentucky 19 - Jacksonville State: 17 (Conference USA)

Gamecocks (9 - 5) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (18 - 6)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WKU is playing their 5th straight game
JVST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -1 (SP+ JVST -1)
Projected Score: JVST: 29 - WKU: 30 (58)
JVST Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
JVST Travel: 222 miles

Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
JVST Players
WKU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina	-3.5	54.5	L 27 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/7	Jacksonville State at Louisville	+27.5	56.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan	-2.5	53.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/21	Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss	-6.0	59.5	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/4	Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State	-17.5	49.5	W 63 - 24	O	Y
Wed 10/9	Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State	-21.0	58.5	W 54 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23	Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee	-20.5	64.5	W 42 - 20	U	Y
Wed 10/30	Jacksonville State at Liberty	+2.5	64.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech	-10.0	55.5	W 44 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/16	Jacksonville State vs Florida International	-12.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston	-5.5	57.5	W 21 - 11	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky	-0.5	62.5	L 17 - 19	U	N
Fri 12/6	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	-4.5	58.5	W 52 - 12	O	Y
Fri 12/20	Jacksonville State vs Ohio	+6.5	57.5	L 27 - 30	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule

Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Western Kentucky at Alabama	+31.0	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/7	Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-18.5	59.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee	-10.5	53.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Western Kentucky vs Toledo	+2.0	60.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Western Kentucky at Boston College	+7.5	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Western Kentucky vs UTEP	-19.0	55.5	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/16	Western Kentucky at Sam Houston	+1.5	55.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/9	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	-18.0	53.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/16	Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech	-11.5	52.5	L 7 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/23	Western Kentucky at Liberty	+1.0	56.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State	+0.5	62.5	W 19 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/6	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	+4.5	58.5	L 12 - 52	O	N
Wed 12/18	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#103 (.13)	42% (65)	28.1	46% (41)	3.08 (73)	237	38% (101)	171	3.77 (79)	#10 (.07)	36% (15)	25.2	33% (6)	39% (39)	3.33 (24)	43.4	1.6	1.9
WKU	#47 (.22)	40% (92)	29.5	38% (119)	3.07 (78)	107	41% (70)	295	4.95 (6)	#81 (.2)	44% (98)	22.8	48% (121)	41% (53)	4 (87)	36.8	1.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Offense	13	28.1	24	42.3%	3.77	1.6	22	408	237	171	4.8	61%	38%	46%	38%	16%	.13
WKU Defense	13	22.8	18.8	44%	4	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	48%	41%	14%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Defense	13	25.2	29.2	35.9%	3.33	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	33%	39%	18%	.07
WKU Offense	13	29.5	35	40%	4.95	1.8	20	402	107	295	3.9	38%	61%	38%	41%	16%	.22

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Jacksonville State	13	26:43	22.2	38%	52%	4.8	43.4	1.6	1.9	7	2.9	1	30.6
Western Kentucky	13	29:32	20.2	43%	62%	4.5	36.8	1.8	1.8	4.4	2	1	28.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Offense	13	61% (8)	46% (41)	49.8	236.7	4.8	35 (5)	.18 (51)	3.08 (73)	72% (82)	9% (54)	0.99 (73)
WKU Defense	13	52% (94)	48% (121)	-	-	-	-	.19 (98)	3.47 (125)	73% (65)	9% (109)	0.96 (45)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Defense	13	50% (66)	33% (6)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (2)	2.45 (4)	71% (57)	12% (28)	0.85 (12)
WKU Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (119)	27.5	106.6	3.9	12 (116)	.06 (117)	3.07 (78)	76% (45)	8% (23)	0.93 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (101)	14	26.9	171	6.4	12.2	12 (113)	12 (85)	.12 (119)	1.6 (75)	31% (47)	30% (71)	.15 (119)	6% (90)	2 (90)
WKU Defense	13	47% (37)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.27 (64)	1.6 (69)	31% (80)	32% (99)	.37 (97)	6% (81)	1.9 (26)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Defense	13	48% (53)	39% (39)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.27 (69)	1.7 (106)	35% (30)	25% (12)	.18 (10)	6% (68)	2 (63)
WKU Offense	13	61% (6)	41% (70)	26.4	41.5	295.2	7.1	11.2	38 (3)	14 (107)	.35 (42)	1.7 (29)	33% (90)	31% (69)	.39 (46)	9% (128)	2.4 (4)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -5.79 #85
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 24.74 #21
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 10.35 #76
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Jacksonville State's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Jacksonville State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #57
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -5.79 Western Kentucky: -2.645

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -1.0 Western Kentucky: -2.2

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -2.645 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.2

Jacksonville State's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 30
Jacksonville State 29

Projected Total Points: 58

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Jacksonville State	37	Western Kentucky	34	Western Kentucky -1.5	Jacksonville State	56.5	Over
2024	11/30	Western Kentucky	19	Jacksonville State	17	Jacksonville State -0.5	Western Kentucky	62.5	Under
2024	12/06	Jacksonville State	52	Western Kentucky	12	Jacksonville State -4.5	Jacksonville State	58.5	Over
2023	10/17	Jacksonville State	20	Western Kentucky	17	Western Kentucky -7.5	Jacksonville State	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Kentucky	1	1	2 Overs
Jacksonville State	3	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	4 - 0	1 - 0	3 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	0 - 4	0 - 3	0 - 1

(#85) JVST at (#92) WKU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	JVST	WKU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#85	#92
SP+SP+	#73	#78
Perf GradeGrade	#68	#64
OffenseOff	#33	#60
DefenseDef	#84	#81
Spec TeamsST	#132	#79
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#82

Jacksonville State Notes(12/21) Hired HC C Kelly (Aub Co-DC, 1st time HC)
(12/2) Rgame good, Pass bad, 2-13 on 3rd, QB Huff hurt
(12/2) L to WKU, held to 13 1st downs (season low)
(12/1) QB Huff inj (ankle) in finale. ? in CUSA title gm
(11/25) Rgame mauled Sam H, clinched CUSA title game
(11/18) Fight w/ FIU? Def awful esp Run, Rgame great
(11/1) 4-0, avg 28 ppg margin in Oct, although lowering
(10/30) RB Steward 232 yds, 8.6, 4 TD in Liberty upset
(10/30) Won five straight after bad 0-3 start to '24
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/4) Killed S Miss. Off improving, QB Huff dual threat
(9/23) Rough start, Def awful. QB Huff is good though
Jacksonville State Injury Report

Western Kentucky Notes(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Jacksonville State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	WKU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#33	#81
SuccessSuc	#65	#98
ExplosiveExp	#117	#41
PPAPPA	#103	#81
PowerPwr	#21	#86
SP+SP+	#57	#62
Pts POPPO	#79	#87
HavocHav	#66	#114

Jacksonville State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#11	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	#121
Run ExplRExp	#73	#45
PPAExp	#51	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#73	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#118
TackleTak	-	#6

Jacksonville State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#53	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#53
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#69
PPAExp	#119	#64
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#93	#42
F7 HavocF7	#54	#109
DB HavocDB	#90	#81

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	JVST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#84
SuccessSuc	#92	#15
ExplosiveExp	#8	#80
PPAPPA	#47	#10
PowerPwr	#71	#76
SP+SP+	#101	#81
Pts POPPO	#6	#24
HavocHav	#74	#37

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#114	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#6
Run ExplRExp	#99	#12
PPAExp	#117	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#4
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#13
TackleTak	-	#24

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#39
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#106
PPAExp	#42	#69
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#5	#121
F7 HavocF7	#23	#28
DB HavocDB	#128	#68

Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 40° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 15
Jacksonville State -4.5 (58.5)
Jacksonville State won at Western Kentucky this year (52-12)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky last year (37-34)
Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky in 2024 (52-12)
Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (20-17)

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Huff (Tr)	178	293	61%	2543	14	7	8.7
Logan Smothers	11	19	58%	123	0	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Stewart	279	1636	25	5.9	75
Tyler Huff (Tr)	227	1344	15	5.9	51
Logan Smothers	22	175	3	8.0	72
Andrew Paul (Tr)	38	166	4	4.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Vaughn	49	804	5	16.4	75
Michael Pettway	25	454	3	18.2	92
Brock Rechsteiner	16	241	2	15.1	85
Tre Stewart	17	233	1	13.7	50

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Luke Olson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fred Perry	109	10	3	2	2
Antonio Carter II (Tr)	103	3	0	1	3
Reginald Hughes (Tr)	83	10	4	6	0
Laletia Hale	80	8	4	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reginald Hughes (Tr)	83	10	4	6	0
Laletia Hale	80	8	4	2	3
Jaylen Swain	44	11	4	2	0
Fred Perry	109	10	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jabari Mack	32	2	11
Zechariah Poyser	77	3	8
Geimere Latimer	46	0	5

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Veltkamp	258	389	66%	3108	25	10	8.0
TJ Finley (Tr)	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	201	883	3	4.4	30
George Hart III (Tr)	44	204	2	4.6	30
Caden Veltkamp	113	150	7	1.3	25
LT Sanders	21	103	1	4.9	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)	75	925	7	12.3	51
Easton Messer	55	793	4	14.4	64
Dalvin Smith	30	397	4	13.2	65
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)	99	2	0	0	0
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2
Hosea Wheeler	62	4	2	2	0
Chandler Matthews (Tr)	59	3	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Thomas	54	7	4	3	0
Sebastian Benjamin	56	6	4	5	0
Kylan Guidry	45	7	3	0	1
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Johnson Jr.	48	5	0	1	6
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2