Liberty at Sam Houston Game Matchup
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at Sam Houston BearkatsSam Houston logo
Friday, November 29th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Liberty -2.5 (47.5) (-140)  Open: -2.5 | 47.5
Sam Houston 20 - Liberty: 18  (Conference USA)

 
Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
LIB is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -5   (SP+ LIB -7)

Projected Score: LIB: 26 - SHSU: 21 (49)
LIB Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
LIB Travel: 1041 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Liberty vs Campbell-41.558.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/7 Liberty at New Mexico State-22.554.5W 30 - 24UN
Sat 9/14 Liberty vs UTEP-23.557.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/21 Liberty vs East Carolina-7.555.0W 35 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8 Liberty vs Florida International-15.556.0W 31 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23 Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.048.0L 24 - 27ON
Wed 10/30 Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.564.0L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/9 Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.554.5W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/16 Liberty at Massachusetts-17.053.0W 35 - 34ON
Sat 11/23 Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.056.5W 38 - 21OY
Fri 11/29 Liberty at Sam Houston-2.547.5L 18 - 20UN
Sat 1/4 Liberty vs Buffalo+4.550.5L 7 - 26UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Sam Houston at Rice+9.549.0W 34 - 14UY
Sat 9/7 Sam Houston at UCF+21.553.5L 14 - 45ON
Sat 9/14 Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.548.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.544.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 9/28 Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.055.0W 40 - 39OY
Thu 10/3 Sam Houston at UTEP-10.049.5W 41 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16 Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.555.0L 14 - 31UN
Tue 10/22 Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.047.0W 10 - 7UN
Tue 10/29 Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.545.5W 9 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.042.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 11/23 Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.557.5L 11 - 21UN
Fri 11/29 Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.547.5W 20 - 18UY
Thu 12/19 Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.548.0W 31 - 26OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 7
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#3 (.43)54% (3)28.856% (3)3.77 (2)28151% (8)1974.54 (20)#59 (.17)42% (73)23.547% (111)40% (49)3.63 (54)591.11.7
SHSU#115 (.1)37% (118)23.834% (130)2.61 (131)8940% (84)2223.47 (97)#69 (.18)41% (58)20.541% (55)42% (75)3.77 (64)42.21.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SHSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1428.828.854.2%4.541.1244782811976.168%32%56%51%7%.43
SHSU Defense1220.515.241.3%3.771.7 - - - - - 53%47%41%42%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1423.524.442.3%3.631.7 - - - - - 43%55%47%40%18%.17
SHSU Offense1223.82136.9%3.471.318311892222.943%55%34%40%15%.1

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1431:1823.650%55%5.9591.11.74.91.7230.4
Sam Houston1229:4118.336%59%5.142.21.31.74.31.4228
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1468% (4)56% (3)45.9281.36.139 (2).35 (3)3.77 (2)85% (4)5% (1)0.98 (81)
SHSU Defense1253% (104)41% (55) - - - - .16 (80)3.2 (92)79% (104)8% (119)1.02 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1443% (9)47% (111) - - - - .19 (94)3.14 (77)75% (86)10% (84)0.97 (49)
SHSU Offense1243% (110)34% (130)30.789.12.913 (108)-.02 (129)2.61 (131)83% (7)9% (56)0.81 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1432% (130)51% (8)11.619.9196.99.916.931 (14)5 (6).65 (2)1.9 (9)23% (2)38% (13).59 (8)2% (2)2.3 (18)
SHSU Defense1247% (32)42% (75) - - - - - - 13 (26).23 (49)1.5 (24)31% (79)27% (25).26 (41)6% (87)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1455% (125)40% (49) - - - - - - 21 (1).23 (48)1.6 (84)31% (77)29% (48).17 (9)9% (6)2.1 (94)
SHSU Offense1255% (25)40% (84)23.537.3222.369.515 (96)12 (85).24 (81)1.4 (127)34% (105)24% (124).17 (112)6% (55)1.9 (119)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.58 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 550.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.58   Sam Houston: -4.36

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.2   Sam Houston: -6.9




Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -4.36 #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
2024 Talent Rating: 330.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 26
Sam Houston 21


Projected Total Points: 49
Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/29Sam Houston20Liberty18Sam HoustonLiberty -2.5Sam Houston47.5Under
202310/05Liberty21Sam Houston16LibertyLiberty -21Sam Houston46.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Sam Houston120 Overs
Liberty102 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#60) Liberty Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.58 #60
Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Talent Rating: 550.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.21 PPO
Great Run Success 54%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Liberty Notes
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.  
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
Liberty     Ratings Matchup     Sam Houston
Power #60
#88
Off #17
#110
Def #38
#54
Talent #84
#125
SP+ #71
#98
SP+ Off #60
#117
SP+ Def #70
#46

Rematch from Week 14
Liberty 2.5 (47.5)
Sam Houston won vs Liberty this year (20-18)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Liberty last year (20-18)
Liberty beat Sam Houston in 2023 (21-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bowers Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56° - Wind: 10 mph


Team Information
Injuries: LIB | SHSU
Depth Chart: LIB | SHSU
Rosters: LIB | SHSU
(#88) Sam Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.36 #88
Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46
Talent Rating: 330.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.97 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Sam Houston Notes
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great
(7/30) 2nd year in FBS/CUSA, started 0-8, won 3/4 late
(7/30) New QB Bauer (CMU starter) should have good WR
(7/30) 4/5 OL and top 2 RB back, improve poor run off LY?


  
Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter14726156%18861567.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)81942%88004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaidon Salter11458775.141
Vaughn Blue3520715.945
Ryan Burger (Tr)177014.157
Julian Gray (Tr)106216.241
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Canion (Tr)25354314.250
Reese Smith18277415.444
Tyson Mobley (Tr)2927619.525
Donte Lee Jr10148114.824

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter885203
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
A'Khori Jones535003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
Joseph Carter885203
Eliyt Nairne252110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
Joseph Carter885203
A'Khori Jones535003

Sam Houston's OC Brad Cornelsen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson15225360%15981186.3
Jase Bauer (Tr)406562%310214.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jevyon Ducker14871974.986
Hunter Watson15262374.146
DJ McKinney9547935.059
Jase Bauer (Tr)4519504.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Simeon Evans43474511.064
Qua'Vez Humphreys18362420.167
Michael Phoenix II13205315.850
Jevyon Ducker1511007.331

View Sam Houston's Full Roster
Sam Houston's DC Skyler Cassity
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver863016
Trey Fields726121
Antavious Fish672111
Isaiah Cash582109
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Murray3412620
Briceon Hayes267532
Richard Outland155330
Kendrick DuJour234310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Cash582109
Caleb Weaver863016
David Fisher332006