Sam Houston at UCF Game Matchup

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (6:30 PM EDT)
UCF -21.5 (53.5) (-1600) Open: -22.0 | 57.5
UCF 45 - Sam Houston: 14

Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (25 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Heavy Rain Predicted
SHSU 2nd straight Road Game
UCF 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: UCF -11.5 (SP+ UCF -10)
Projected Score: SHSU: 20 - UCF: 32 (51)
UCF Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
SHSU Travel: 873 miles, 1 hrs behind

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SHSU Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Sam Houston at Rice	+9.5	49.0	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Sam Houston at UCF	+21.5	53.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/14	Sam Houston vs Hawai'i	-3.5	48.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Sam Houston vs New Mexico State	-15.5	44.5	W 31 - 11	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Sam Houston vs Texas State	+11.0	55.0	W 40 - 39	O	Y
Thu 10/3	Sam Houston at UTEP	-10.0	49.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16	Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky	-1.5	55.0	L 14 - 31	U	N
Tue 10/22	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-5.0	47.0	W 10 - 7	U	N
Tue 10/29	Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech	-10.5	45.5	W 9 - 3	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Sam Houston at Kennesaw State	-21.0	42.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/23	Sam Houston at Jacksonville State	+5.5	57.5	L 11 - 21	U	N
Fri 11/29	Sam Houston vs Liberty	+2.5	47.5	W 20 - 18	U	Y
Thu 12/19	Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern	+3.5	48.0	W 31 - 26	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU	#115 (.1)	37% (118)	23.8	34% (130)	2.61 (131)	89	40% (84)	222	3.47 (97)	#69 (.18)	41% (58)	20.5	41% (55)	42% (75)	3.77 (64)	42.2	1.3	1.7
UCF	#16 (.31)	45% (41)	30.4	47% (27)	3.28 (36)	228	43% (57)	259	3.76 (80)	#58 (.16)	47% (125)	26.9	51% (128)	43% (80)	3.79 (69)	50.1	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Offense	12	23.8	24.6	36.9%	3.47	1.3	18	311	89	222	2.9	43%	55%	34%	40%	15%	.1
UCF Defense	13	26.9	23	46.6%	3.79	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	51%	43%	12%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Defense	12	20.5	23.6	41.3%	3.77	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	41%	42%	14%	.18
UCF Offense	13	30.4	32.9	44.9%	3.76	1.4	23	487	228	259	5.6	56%	43%	47%	43%	15%	.31

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sam Houston	12	29:41	18.3	36%	59%	5.1	42.2	1.3	1.7	4.3	1.4	2	28
UCF	13	28:52	23.1	49%	57%	6.1	50.1	1.4	1.2	4.2	1.7	0	26.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense	12	43% (110)	34% (130)	30.7	89.1	2.9	13 (108)	-.02 (129)	2.61 (131)	83% (7)	9% (56)	0.81 (130)
UCF Defense	13	56% (121)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.23 (110)	3.39 (117)	81% (111)	7% (127)	0.99 (62)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense	12	53% (104)	41% (55)	-	-	-	-	.16 (80)	3.2 (92)	79% (104)	8% (119)	1.02 (82)
UCF Offense	13	56% (24)	47% (27)	40.7	228.2	5.6	28 (25)	.24 (19)	3.28 (36)	71% (93)	9% (48)	1.14 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense	12	55% (25)	40% (84)	23.5	37.3	222.3	6	9.5	15 (96)	12 (85)	.24 (81)	1.4 (127)	34% (105)	24% (124)	.17 (112)	6% (55)	1.9 (119)
UCF Defense	13	43% (11)	43% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.17 (17)	1.4 (4)	29% (120)	34% (113)	.23 (33)	5% (120)	1.7 (1)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense	12	47% (32)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.23 (49)	1.5 (24)	31% (79)	27% (25)	.26 (41)	6% (87)	2.1 (88)
UCF Offense	13	43% (111)	43% (57)	17.6	28.2	258.8	9.2	14.7	24 (41)	11 (68)	.48 (12)	1.9 (5)	30% (30)	37% (15)	.52 (17)	6% (51)	2.2 (27)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -6.82 #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
2024 Talent Rating: 330.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -6.82 UCF: 4.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -6.9 UCF: 2.8

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.39 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 796.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 32
Sam Houston 20

Projected Total Points: 51

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	UCF	45	Sam Houston	14	UCF	UCF -21.5	UCF	53.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	1	1	1 Overs
Sam Houston	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#88) Sam Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.82 #88
Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46
Talent Rating: 330.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.97 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Sam Houston Notes
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great
(7/30) 2nd year in FBS/CUSA, started 0-8, won 3/4 late
(7/30) New QB Bauer (CMU starter) should have good WR
(7/30) 4/5 OL and top 2 RB back, improve poor run off LY?

Sam Houston Ratings Matchup UCF

Power #88

#58

Off #110

#64

Def #54

#67

Talent #125

#31

SP+ #98

#61

SP+ Off #117

#55

SP+ Def #46

#61

Rematch from Week 2
UCF -21.5 (53.5)
UCF won vs Sam Houston this year (45-14)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat Sam Houston last year (45-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 79° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.043

Team Information
Injuries: SHSU | UCF
Depth Chart: SHSU | UCF
Rosters: SHSU | UCF

(#58) UCF Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.39 #58
Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61
Talent Rating: 796.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.37 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

UCF Notes
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost

Sam Houston's OC Brad Cornelsen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hunter Watson	152	253	60%	1598	11	8	6.3
Jase Bauer (Tr)	40	65	62%	310	2	1	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevyon Ducker	148	719	7	4.9	86
Hunter Watson	152	623	7	4.1	46
DJ McKinney	95	479	3	5.0	59
Jase Bauer (Tr)	45	195	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Simeon Evans	43	474	5	11.0	64
Qua'Vez Humphreys	18	362	4	20.1	67
Michael Phoenix II	13	205	3	15.8	50
Jevyon Ducker	15	110	0	7.3	31

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

Sam Houston's DC Skyler Cassity

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Weaver	86	3	0	1	6
Trey Fields	72	6	1	2	1
Antavious Fish	67	2	1	1	1
Isaiah Cash	58	2	1	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Murray	34	12	6	2	0
Briceon Hayes	26	7	5	3	2
Richard Outland	15	5	3	3	0
Kendrick DuJour	23	4	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Cash	58	2	1	0	9
Caleb Weaver	86	3	0	1	6
David Fisher	33	2	0	0	6

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr.

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	61	193	2	3.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
Chauncey Magwood	5	102	0	20.4	34
Xavier Townsend	10	69	1	6.9	22

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Addison Williams

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Lee Hunter	44	10	1	6	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2