Liberty at Massachusetts - 2024 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo   Liberty Flames at Massachusetts Minutemen  Massachusetts logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Liberty -17 (53.0) (-850)  Open: -12.5
Liberty 35 - Massachusetts: 34

 
Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
LIB 2nd straight Road Game
UMASS coming off BYE
LIB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -17  (SP+ LIB -22)

Projected Score: LIB: 34 - UMASS: 17 (51)
LIB Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
LIB Travel: 494 miles
Minutemen (2 - 10) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Don Brown (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Liberty vs Campbell-41.558.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/7 Liberty at New Mexico State-22.554.5W 30 - 24UN
Sat 9/14 Liberty vs UTEP-23.557.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/21 Liberty vs East Carolina-7.555.0W 35 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8 Liberty vs Florida International-15.556.0W 31 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23 Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.048.0L 24 - 27ON
Wed 10/30 Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.564.0L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/9 Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.554.5W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/16 Liberty at Massachusetts-17.053.0W 35 - 34ON
Sat 11/23 Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.056.5W 38 - 21OY
Fri 11/29 Liberty at Sam Houston-2.547.5L 18 - 20UN
Sat 1/4 Liberty vs Buffalo+4.550.5L 7 - 26UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan-2.549.0L 14 - 28UN
Sat 9/7 Massachusetts at Toledo+17.550.5L 23 - 38OY
Sat 9/14 Massachusetts at Buffalo+3.545.5L 3 - 34UN
Sat 9/21 Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut-19.552.0W 35 - 31ON
Sat 9/28 Massachusetts at Miami (OH)+15.544.5L 20 - 23UY
Sat 10/5 Massachusetts at Northern Illinois+14.041.0L 20 - 34OY
Sat 10/12 Massachusetts vs Missouri+27.054.0L 3 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Massachusetts vs Wagner-23.048.0W 35 - 7UY
Sat 11/2 Massachusetts at Mississippi State+19.559.5L 20 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Massachusetts vs Liberty+17.053.0L 34 - 35OY
Sat 11/23 Massachusetts at Georgia+42.555.5L 21 - 59OY
Sat 11/30 Massachusetts vs UConn+9.549.5L 42 - 47OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#3 (.43)54% (3)25.656% (3)3.77 (2)28151% (8)1974.54 (20)#59 (.17)42% (73)26.547% (111)40% (49)3.63 (54)591.11.7
UMASS#72 (.18)42% (68)11.145% (47)3.35 (21)14240% (86)2143.73 (82)#124 (.31)49% (132)38.653% (131)43% (92)4.31 (114)70.91.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1425.619.754.2%4.541.1244782811976.168%32%56%51%7%.43
UMASS Defense1238.634.748.5%4.311.2 - - - - - 58%42%53%43%15%.31
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1426.525.742.3%3.631.7 - - - - - 43%55%47%40%18%.17
UMASS Offense1211.112.842%3.731.4183561422144.451%48%45%40%21%.18

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1431:1823.650%55%5.9591.11.74.91.7230.4
Massachusetts1229:4517.836%23%870.91.41.24.51.5226.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1468% (4)56% (3)45.9281.36.139 (2).35 (3)3.77 (2)85% (4)5% (1)0.98 (81)
UMASS Defense1258% (130)53% (131) - - - - .34 (131)3.83 (133)85% (123)9% (89)1 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1443% (9)47% (111) - - - - .19 (94)3.14 (77)75% (86)10% (84)0.97 (49)
UMASS Offense1251% (59)45% (47)32.5142.24.419 (69).25 (18)3.35 (21)62% (125)14% (127)1.14 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1432% (130)51% (8)11.619.9196.99.916.931 (14)5 (6).65 (2)1.9 (9)23% (2)38% (13).59 (8)2% (2)2.3 (18)
UMASS Defense1242% (4)43% (92) - - - - - - 8 (100).31 (94)1.8 (122)29% (121)37% (125).47 (124)6% (90)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1455% (125)40% (49) - - - - - - 21 (1).23 (48)1.6 (84)31% (77)29% (48).17 (9)9% (6)2.1 (94)
UMASS Offense1248% (76)40% (86)17.729214.17.412.114 (106)11 (68).18 (99)1.5 (85)32% (62)33% (50).43 (35)7% (109)2.2 (36)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.58  #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37  #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21  #38
2024 Talent Rating: 274.00  #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2  #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2  #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.58   Massachusetts: -16.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.2   Massachusetts: -21.9




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.56  #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80  #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13  #122
2024 Talent Rating: 245.00  #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9  #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #129

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 34
Massachusetts 17


Projected Total Points: 51
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Massachusetts34Liberty35Liberty -17Massachusetts53.0Over
202311/18Liberty49Massachusetts25Liberty -26.5Massachusetts64.5Over
202210/08Massachusetts24Liberty42Liberty -22.5Massachusetts45.5Over
202110/30Liberty62Massachusetts17Liberty -35.5Liberty56.0Over
202011/27Liberty45Massachusetts0Liberty -35Liberty57.5Under
201911/02Massachusetts21Liberty63Liberty -23.5Liberty72.0Over
201811/03Massachusetts62Liberty59Liberty -1.5Massachusetts66.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts146 Overs
Liberty631 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 35 - 22 - 13 - 1
Road Teams3 - 42 - 51 - 31 - 2

(#60) LIB at (#115) UMASS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLIBUMASS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #60 #115
SP+SP+ #71 #129
Perf GradeGrade #36 #128
OffenseOff #21 #114
DefenseDef #73 #117
Spec TeamsST #98 #126
TalentTal #84 #98
Blue ChipsBC% #82 #82
Liberty Notes
(11/25) Rgame 400+ yds (WKU), W vs SHSU=CUSA title gm
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.  
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
(7/30) QB Salter is v good & mobile. Best backfield in G5?
Liberty Injury Report
Massachusetts Notes
(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
(7/30) QB Phommachanh bad, WR mostly portal adds
(7/30) Run D nearly last in CFB LY, doesn't look much better
Massachusetts Injury Report
Liberty on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat
LIB OffUMASS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #21 #117
SuccessSuc #3 #132
ExplosiveExp #94 #66
PPAPPA #3 #124
PowerPwr #17 #122
SP+SP+ #60 #129
Pts POPPO #20 #114
HavocHav #1 #97
Liberty Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat
LIB OffUMASS Def
Run GameRun #39 #119
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #131
Run ExplRExp #81 #69
PPAExp #3 #131
Run BlockR Blk #4 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #133
Stuff RateStuff #12 #133
TackleTak -  #14
Liberty Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat
LIB OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePass #38 #104
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #92
Pass ExplPExl #9 #122
PPAExp #2 #94
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #102 #86
F7 HavocF7 #1 #89
DB HavocDB #2 #90
Massachusetts on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatUMASS OffLIB Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #114 #73
SuccessSuc #68 #73
ExplosiveExp #48 #85
PPAPPA #72 #59
PowerPwr #69 #38
SP+SP+ #110 #70
Pts POPPO #82 #54
HavocHav #129 #30
Massachusetts Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #119 #73
Run SuccessRSuc #47 #111
Run ExplRExp #11 #49
PPAExp #18 #94
Run BlockR Blk #94 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #77
Stuff RateStuff #29 #59
TackleTak -  #71
Massachusetts Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatUMASS OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #115 #62
Pass SuccessPSuc #86 #49
Pass ExplPExl #85 #84
PPAExp #99 #48
Pass Block/RushP Blk #57 #67
F7 HavocF7 #127 #84
DB HavocDB #109 #6
Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Liberty 17.0 (53.0)
Liberty won at Massachusetts this year (35-34)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Massachusetts in 2024 (35-34)
Liberty beat Massachusetts in 2023 (49-25)

  
LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter14726156%18861567.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)81942%88004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Cooley2051254136.144
Billy Lucas12372055.955
Kaidon Salter11458775.141
Vaughn Blue3520715.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Treon Sibley28510218.270
Elijah Canion (Tr)25354314.250
Reese Smith18277415.444
Tyson Mobley (Tr)2927619.525

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter885203
T.J. Bush5810614
Jerome Jolly Jr.555111
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
Quinton Reese405210
Joseph Carter885203
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
Joseph Carter885203
A'Khori Jones535003

UMASS's OC Shane Montgomery (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taisun Phommachanh13223456%1590866.8
AJ Hairston407355%480506.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen John11158355.368
C.J. Hester (Tr)11952944.424
Taisun Phommachanh10731733.033
Brandon Campbell (Tr)6123333.821
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jakobie Keeney-James (Tr)51870617.175
Ty Harding18303516.858
Jacquon Gibson23270111.739
Sterling Galban (Tr)2521008.421

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Stewart773312
Gerrell Johnson743122
Tyler Rudolph612003
Te'Rai Powell522001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Louce Julien437411
Kofi Asare306311
Jalen Stewart773312
Christian Lebrun222200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lake Ellis (Tr)293005
Isaiah Rutherford81004
Tim Grant-Randall (Tr)272003