Liberty at Massachusetts Game Matchup
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at Massachusetts MinutemenMassachusetts logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Liberty -17 (53.0) (-850)  Open: -12.5
Liberty 35 - Massachusetts: 34

 
Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Wind: 19.9 MPH
LIB 2nd straight Road Game
UMASS coming off BYE
LIB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -17   (SP+ LIB -22)

Projected Score: LIB: 36 - UMASS: 19 (55)
LIB Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
LIB Travel: 494 miles
Minutemen (2 - 10) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Shane Montgomery (Int) (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (27 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Liberty vs Campbell-41.558.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/7 Liberty at New Mexico State-22.554.5W 30 - 24UN
Sat 9/14 Liberty vs UTEP-23.557.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/21 Liberty vs East Carolina-7.555.0W 35 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8 Liberty vs Florida International-15.556.0W 31 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23 Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.048.0L 24 - 27ON
Wed 10/30 Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.564.0L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/9 Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.554.5W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/16 Liberty at Massachusetts-17.053.0W 35 - 34ON
Sat 11/23 Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.056.5W 38 - 21OY
Fri 11/29 Liberty at Sam Houston-2.547.5L 18 - 20UN
Sat 1/4 Liberty vs Buffalo+4.550.5L 7 - 26UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan-2.549.0L 14 - 28UN
Sat 9/7 Massachusetts at Toledo+17.550.5L 23 - 38OY
Sat 9/14 Massachusetts at Buffalo+3.545.5L 3 - 34UN
Sat 9/21 Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut-19.552.0W 35 - 31ON
Sat 9/28 Massachusetts at Miami (OH)+15.544.5L 20 - 23UY
Sat 10/5 Massachusetts at Northern Illinois+14.041.0L 20 - 34OY
Sat 10/12 Massachusetts vs Missouri+27.054.0L 3 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Massachusetts vs Wagner-23.048.0W 35 - 7UY
Sat 11/2 Massachusetts at Mississippi State+19.559.5L 20 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Massachusetts vs Liberty+17.053.0L 34 - 35OY
Sat 11/23 Massachusetts at Georgia+42.555.5L 21 - 59OY
Sat 11/30 Massachusetts vs UConn+9.549.5L 42 - 47OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#3 (.43)54% (3)28.856% (3)3.77 (2)28151% (8)1974.54 (20)#59 (.17)42% (73)23.547% (111)40% (49)3.63 (54)591.11.7
UMASS#72 (.18)42% (68)22.545% (47)3.35 (21)14240% (86)2143.73 (82)#124 (.31)49% (132)35.553% (131)43% (92)4.31 (114)70.91.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1428.828.854.2%4.541.1244782811976.168%32%56%51%7%.43
UMASS Defense1235.532.248.5%4.311.2 - - - - - 58%42%53%43%15%.31
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1423.524.442.3%3.631.7 - - - - - 43%55%47%40%18%.17
UMASS Offense1222.527.242%3.731.4183561422144.451%48%45%40%21%.18

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1431:1823.650%55%5.9591.11.74.91.7230.4
Massachusetts1229:4517.836%23%870.91.41.24.51.5226.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1468% (4)56% (3)45.9281.36.139 (2).35 (3)3.77 (2)85% (4)5% (1)0.98 (81)
UMASS Defense1258% (130)53% (131) - - - - .34 (131)3.83 (133)85% (123)9% (89)1 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1443% (9)47% (111) - - - - .19 (94)3.14 (77)75% (86)10% (84)0.97 (49)
UMASS Offense1251% (59)45% (47)32.5142.24.419 (69).25 (18)3.35 (21)62% (125)14% (127)1.14 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1432% (130)51% (8)11.619.9196.99.916.931 (14)5 (6).65 (2)1.9 (9)23% (2)38% (13).59 (8)2% (2)2.3 (18)
UMASS Defense1242% (4)43% (92) - - - - - - 8 (100).31 (94)1.8 (122)29% (121)37% (125).47 (124)6% (90)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1455% (125)40% (49) - - - - - - 21 (1).23 (48)1.6 (84)31% (77)29% (48).17 (9)9% (6)2.1 (94)
UMASS Offense1248% (76)40% (86)17.729214.17.412.114 (106)11 (68).18 (99)1.5 (85)32% (62)33% (50).43 (35)7% (109)2.2 (36)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.58 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 550.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.58   Massachusetts: -16.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.2   Massachusetts: -21.9




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.56 #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
2024 Talent Rating: 496.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 36
Massachusetts 19


Projected Total Points: 55
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.2

Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Massachusetts34Liberty35LibertyLiberty -17Massachusetts53.0Over
202311/18Liberty49Massachusetts25LibertyLiberty -26.5Massachusetts64.5Over
202210/08Massachusetts24Liberty42LibertyLiberty -22.5Massachusetts45.5Over
202110/30Liberty62Massachusetts17LibertyLiberty -35.5Liberty56.0Over
202011/27Liberty45Massachusetts0LibertyLiberty -35Liberty57.5Under
201911/02Massachusetts21Liberty63LibertyLiberty -23.5Liberty72.0Over
201811/03Massachusetts62Liberty59MassachusettsLiberty -1.5Massachusetts66.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts146 Overs
Liberty631 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 35 - 22 - 13 - 1
Road Teams3 - 42 - 51 - 31 - 2

(#60) Liberty Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.58 #60
Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Talent Rating: 550.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.21 PPO
Great Run Success 54%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Liberty Notes
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.  
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
Liberty     Ratings Matchup     Massachusetts
Power #60
#115
Off #17
#69
Def #38
#122
Talent #84
#100
SP+ #71
#129
SP+ Off #60
#110
SP+ Def #70
#129

Rematch from Week 12
Liberty 17.0 (53.0)
Liberty won at Massachusetts this year (35-34)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Massachusetts last year (35-34)
Liberty beat Massachusetts in 2023 (49-25)
Liberty beat Massachusetts in 2022 (42-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 61° - Wind: 20 mph


Team Information
Injuries: LIB | UMASS
Depth Chart: LIB | UMASS
Rosters: LIB | UMASS
(#115) Massachusetts Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.56 #115
Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129
Talent Rating: 496.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Massachusetts Notes
(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
(7/30) QB Phommachanh bad, WR mostly portal adds
(7/30) Run D nearly last in CFB LY, doesn't look much better


  
Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter14726156%18861567.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)81942%88004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaidon Salter11458775.141
Vaughn Blue3520715.945
Ryan Burger (Tr)177014.157
Julian Gray (Tr)106216.241
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Canion (Tr)25354314.250
Reese Smith18277415.444
Tyson Mobley (Tr)2927619.525
Donte Lee Jr10148114.824

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter885203
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
A'Khori Jones535003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
Joseph Carter885203
Eliyt Nairne252110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
Joseph Carter885203
A'Khori Jones535003

Massachusetts's OC Shane Montgomery
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Hairston407355%480506.6
Will Perry71164%72106.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen John11158355.368
C.J. Hester (Tr)11952944.424
Brandon Campbell (Tr)6123333.821
Ahmad Haston1817419.738
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jakobie Keeney-James (Tr)51870617.175
Ty Harding18303516.858
Jacquon Gibson23270111.739
Sterling Galban (Tr)2521008.421

View Massachusetts's Full Roster
Massachusetts's DC Keith Dudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Stewart773312
Gerrell Johnson743122
Te'Rai Powell522001
Derrieon Craig433011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Louce Julien437411
Kofi Asare306311
Jalen Stewart773312
Christian Lebrun222200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lake Ellis (Tr)293005
Tim Grant-Randall (Tr)272003
Jalen Stewart773312