Liberty at Middle Tennessee Game Matchup
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMiddle Tennessee logo
Saturday, November 9th 2024 (1:00 PM EST)
Liberty -12.5 (54.5) (-500)  Open: -10.5 | 54.5
Liberty 37 - Middle Tennessee: 17  (Conference USA)

 
Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
MTSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -22   (SP+ LIB -24.5)

Projected Score: LIB: 38 - MTSU: 16 (53)
LIB Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
LIB Travel: 412 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Liberty vs Campbell-41.558.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/7 Liberty at New Mexico State-22.554.5W 30 - 24UN
Sat 9/14 Liberty vs UTEP-23.557.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/21 Liberty vs East Carolina-7.555.0W 35 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8 Liberty vs Florida International-15.556.0W 31 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23 Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.048.0L 24 - 27ON
Wed 10/30 Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.564.0L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/9 Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.554.5W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/16 Liberty at Massachusetts-17.053.0W 35 - 34ON
Sat 11/23 Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.056.5W 38 - 21OY
Fri 11/29 Liberty at Sam Houston-2.547.5L 18 - 20UN
Sat 1/4 Liberty vs Buffalo+4.550.5L 7 - 26UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech-11.5
Sat 9/7 Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss+42.560.5L 3 - 52UN
Sat 9/14 Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky+10.553.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 9/21 Middle Tennessee vs Duke+14.551.0L 17 - 45ON
Sat 9/28 Middle Tennessee at Memphis+27.062.0L 7 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10 Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech+5.048.0L 21 - 48ON
Tue 10/15 Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-8.550.0W 14 - 5UY
Wed 10/23 Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State+20.564.5L 20 - 42UN
Sat 11/2 Middle Tennessee at UTEP+2.048.0W 20 - 13UY
Sat 11/9 Middle Tennessee vs Liberty+12.554.5L 17 - 37UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State-3.554.0L 21 - 36ON
Sat 11/30 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+9.550.5L 24 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#3 (.43)54% (3)28.856% (3)3.77 (2)28151% (8)1974.54 (20)#59 (.17)42% (73)23.547% (111)40% (49)3.63 (54)591.11.7
MTSU#95 (.14)39% (104)18.141% (93)3.08 (74)12639% (94)2663.2 (115)#60 (.17)43% (81)34.345% (88)42% (78)4.13 (100)56.31.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1428.828.854.2%4.541.1244782811976.168%32%56%51%7%.43
MTSU Defense1234.332.842.9%4.131.3 - - - - - 47%52%45%42%17%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1423.524.442.3%3.631.7 - - - - - 43%55%47%40%18%.17
MTSU Offense1218.120.339.4%3.21.8193911262663.942%57%41%39%17%.14

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1431:1823.650%55%5.9591.11.74.91.7230.4
Middle Tennessee1228:3219.340%45%6.856.31.81.35.81.9028.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1468% (4)56% (3)45.9281.36.139 (2).35 (3)3.77 (2)85% (4)5% (1)0.98 (81)
MTSU Defense1247% (30)45% (88) - - - - .06 (24)2.97 (43)71% (57)10% (65)0.85 (13)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1443% (9)47% (111) - - - - .19 (94)3.14 (77)75% (86)10% (84)0.97 (49)
MTSU Offense1242% (117)41% (93)32125.53.913 (108).1 (93)3.08 (74)79% (22)11% (95)1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1432% (130)51% (8)11.619.9196.99.916.931 (14)5 (6).65 (2)1.9 (9)23% (2)38% (13).59 (8)2% (2)2.3 (18)
MTSU Defense1252% (104)42% (78) - - - - - - 8 (100).31 (96)1.5 (47)30% (104)32% (90).35 (88)7% (31)2.2 (100)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1455% (125)40% (49) - - - - - - 21 (1).23 (48)1.6 (84)31% (77)29% (48).17 (9)9% (6)2.1 (94)
MTSU Offense1257% (18)39% (94)24.636.5265.67.310.823 (51)13 (97).24 (84)1.6 (59)34% (101)26% (110).24 (94)6% (70)2.3 (6)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.58 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 550.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.58   Middle Tennessee: -21.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.2   Middle Tennessee: -24.4




Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -21.84 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 394.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 38
Middle Tennessee 16


Projected Total Points: 53
Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.3
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.8

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Middle Tennessee17Liberty37LibertyLiberty -12.5Liberty54.5Under
202310/17Liberty42Middle Tennessee35LibertyLiberty -16Middle Tennessee56.5Over
202110/09Liberty41Middle Tennessee13LibertyLiberty -20Liberty59.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Middle Tennessee011 Overs
Liberty322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 21 - 10 - 1
Road Teams1 - 22 - 11 - 01 - 1

(#60) Liberty Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.58 #60
Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Talent Rating: 550.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.21 PPO
Great Run Success 54%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Liberty Notes
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.  
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
Liberty     Ratings Matchup     Middle Tennessee
Power #60
#130
Off #17
#105
Def #38
#131
Talent #84
#119
SP+ #71
#131
SP+ Off #60
#131
SP+ Def #70
#122

Rematch from Week 11
Liberty 12.5 (54.5)
Liberty won at Middle Tennessee this year (37-17)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Middle Tennessee last year (37-17)
Liberty beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (42-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68°

Team Information
Injuries: LIB | MTSU
Depth Chart: LIB | MTSU
Rosters: LIB | MTSU
(#130) Middle Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -21.84 #130
Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122
Talent Rating: 394.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Awful OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Middle Tennessee Notes
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)


  
Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter14726156%18861567.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)81942%88004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaidon Salter11458775.141
Vaughn Blue3520715.945
Ryan Burger (Tr)177014.157
Julian Gray (Tr)106216.241
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Canion (Tr)25354314.250
Reese Smith18277415.444
Tyson Mobley (Tr)2927619.525
Donte Lee Jr10148114.824

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter885203
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
A'Khori Jones535003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
Joseph Carter885203
Eliyt Nairne252110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
Joseph Carter885203
A'Khori Jones535003

Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato26941864%309216107.4
Roman Gagliano4944%41004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook6027324.624
Terry Wilkins5421414.023
Nick Vattiato867710.916
Frank Peasant104924.930
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Omari Kelly (Tr)53869416.471
Myles Butler30366312.261
Cam'Ron Lacy2019009.544
Jekail Middlebrook2216317.424

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster
Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Williams (Tr)753003
Parker Hughes692010
Anthony Bynum607311
John Howse IV (Tr)514101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner374350
Anthony Bynum607311
James Gillespie102200
Damonte Smith254231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyrell Raby160006
Marvae Myers-Glover411004
Xavier Williams (Tr)753003