Liberty at Middle Tennessee - 2024 Matchup Preview

Liberty Flames at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (1:00 PM EST)
Liberty -12.5 (54.5) (-500) Open: -10.5 | 54.5
Liberty 37 - Middle Tennessee: 17 (Conference USA)

Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MTSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Liberty -22 (SP+ LIB -24.5)
Projected Score: LIB: 37 - MTSU: 15 (51)
LIB Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
LIB Travel: 412 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LIB Players
MTSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Liberty vs Campbell	-41.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/7	Liberty at New Mexico State	-22.5	54.5	W 30 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Liberty vs UTEP	-23.5	57.5	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	Liberty vs East Carolina	-7.5	55.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8	Liberty vs Florida International	-15.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23	Liberty at Kennesaw State	-27.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Wed 10/30	Liberty vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	64.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/9	Liberty at Middle Tennessee	-12.5	54.5	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Liberty at Massachusetts	-17.0	53.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/23	Liberty vs Western Kentucky	-1.0	56.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Liberty at Sam Houston	-2.5	47.5	L 18 - 20	U	N
Sat 1/4	Liberty vs Buffalo	+4.5	50.5	L 7 - 26	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech	-11.5
Sat 9/7	Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss	+42.5	60.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/14	Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky	+10.5	53.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Middle Tennessee vs Duke	+14.5	51.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Memphis	+27.0	62.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech	+5.0	48.0	L 21 - 48	O	N
Tue 10/15	Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State	-8.5	50.0	W 14 - 5	U	Y
Wed 10/23	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+20.5	64.5	L 20 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/2	Middle Tennessee at UTEP	+2.0	48.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Middle Tennessee vs Liberty	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State	-3.5	54.0	L 21 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/30	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+9.5	50.5	L 24 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)	28.8	54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)	23.5	39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)	18.1	38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)	34.3	50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)		54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)		39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)		38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)		50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	12	28.8	28.8	49.9%	4.21	1.3	22	400	238	161	5.7	63%	36%	54%	43%	14%	.26
MTSU Defense	12	34.3	32.8	49.4%	4.61	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	49%	14%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	12	23.5	24.4	39.4%	3.68	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	39%	40%	16%	.1
MTSU Offense	12	18.1	20.3	39.4%	3	1.6	18	352	91	261	3.2	41%	59%	38%	40%	19%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	12	28:42	22.1	45%	50%	6.7	64.4	1.3	1.3	5	1.6	0	28.5
Middle Tennessee	12	30:15	18.2	38%	48%	7.3	61.3	1.6	0.8	4.6	1.7	1	25.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	12	63% (5)	54% (2)	41.8	238.3	5.7	28 (25)	.25 (16)	3.56 (7)	76% (47)	9% (43)	0.91 (94)
MTSU Defense	12	54% (104)	50% (124)	-	-	-	-	.19 (107)	3.19 (97)	72% (61)	9% (100)	0.97 (59)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	12	55% (115)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	.02 (20)	2.68 (21)	73% (62)	10% (59)	0.99 (68)
MTSU Offense	12	41% (123)	38% (114)	27.9	90.5	3.2	10 (122)	.04 (110)	2.82 (104)	56% (132)	11% (100)	0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	12	36% (130)	43% (60)	12.6	22.3	161.2	7.2	12.8	15 (98)	6 (10)	.27 (56)	1.5 (104)	24% (2)	36% (23)	.43 (26)	5% (36)	1.9 (107)
MTSU Defense	12	46% (33)	49% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.47 (129)	1.6 (90)	27% (127)	34% (109)	.53 (128)	5% (101)	2.3 (128)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	12	45% (19)	40% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.21 (51)	1.6 (77)	32% (73)	31% (81)	.18 (17)	6% (82)	1.8 (9)
MTSU Offense	12	59% (11)	40% (83)	22.8	35.6	261.1	7.3	11.5	16 (87)	10 (63)	.19 (95)	1.5 (102)	32% (84)	25% (123)	.17 (121)	7% (112)	1.9 (113)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.58 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.58 Middle Tennessee: -21.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.2 Middle Tennessee: -24.4

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -21.84 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 37
Middle Tennessee 15

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Middle Tennessee 22
Liberty 21

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Liberty 31
Middle Tennessee 22

Total Points: 53

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.3
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.8

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	Middle Tennessee	17	Liberty	37	Liberty -12.5	Liberty	54.5	Under
2023	10/17	Liberty	42	Middle Tennessee	35	Liberty -16	Middle Tennessee	56.5	Over
2021	10/09	Liberty	41	Middle Tennessee	13	Liberty -20	Liberty	59.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Middle Tennessee	0	1	1 Overs
Liberty	3	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#60) LIB at (#130) MTSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	MTSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#60	#130
SP+SP+	#71	#131
Perf GradeGrade	#36	#132
OffenseOff	#21	#125
DefenseDef	#73	#129
Spec TeamsST	#98	#120
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#102

Liberty Notes(11/25) Rgame 400+ yds (WKU), W vs SHSU=CUSA title gm
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
(7/30) QB Salter is v good & mobile. Best backfield in G5?
Liberty Injury Report

Middle Tennessee Notes(8/3) Will start 1-4, watch after bye on Oct 3
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)
(7/30) A D Mason team has to win with Off? Sept rough
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Liberty on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	MTSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#129
SuccessSuc	#7	#130
ExplosiveExp	#131	#71
PPAPPA	#24	#129
PowerPwr	#17	#131
SP+SP+	#60	#122
Pts POPPO	#43	#126
HavocHav	#33	#108

Liberty Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#39	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	#124
Run ExplRExp	#94	#59
PPAExp	#16	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#7	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#9	#62
TackleTak	-	#83

Liberty Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	#60	#127
Pass ExplPExl	#104	#90
PPAExp	#56	#129
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#102	#131
F7 HavocF7	#43	#100
DB HavocDB	#36	#101

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	LIB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#73
SuccessSuc	#105	#39
ExplosiveExp	#53	#67
PPAPPA	#107	#24
PowerPwr	#105	#38
SP+SP+	#131	#70
Pts POPPO	#128	#58
HavocHav	#113	#71

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#77	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	#114	#30
Run ExplRExp	#62	#68
PPAExp	#110	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#104	#21
Stuff RateStuff	#125	#28
TackleTak	-	#71

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#33	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#66
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#77
PPAExp	#95	#51
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#136	#67
F7 HavocF7	#100	#59
DB HavocDB	#112	#82

Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68°

Rematch from Week 11
Liberty 12.5 (54.5)
Liberty won at Middle Tennessee this year (37-17)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat Middle Tennessee last year (37-17)
Liberty beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (42-35)

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	147	261	56%	1886	15	6	7.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)	8	19	42%	88	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley	205	1254	13	6.1	44
Billy Lucas	123	720	5	5.9	55
Kaidon Salter	114	587	7	5.1	41
Vaughn Blue	35	207	1	5.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Treon Sibley	28	510	2	18.2	70
Elijah Canion (Tr)	25	354	3	14.2	50
Reese Smith	18	277	4	15.4	44
Tyson Mobley (Tr)	29	276	1	9.5	25

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Jerome Jolly Jr.	55	5	1	1	1
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0
Quinton Reese	40	5	2	1	0
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
A'Khori Jones	53	5	0	0	3

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	269	418	64%	3092	16	10	7.4
Roman Gagliano	4	9	44%	41	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle	109	471	4	4.3	66
Jekail Middlebrook	60	273	2	4.6	24
Terry Wilkins	54	214	1	4.0	23
Nick Vattiato	86	77	1	0.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis	53	871	6	16.4	61
Omari Kelly (Tr)	53	869	4	16.4	71
Myles Butler	30	366	3	12.2	61
Cam'Ron Lacy	20	190	0	9.5	44

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	0	0	3
Parker Hughes	69	2	0	1	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrell Raby	16	0	6
Marvae Myers-Glover	41	1	4
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	3