Jacksonville State at Liberty - 2024 Matchup Preview

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Liberty Flames

Wednesday, October 30th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -2.5 (64.0) (-135) Open: -1.0
Jacksonville State 31 - Liberty: 21 (Conference USA)

Gamecocks (9 - 5) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (18 - 6)
Avg Score : 36 - 26 (34 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Liberty -6.5 (SP+ LIB -1)
Projected Score: JVST: 28 - LIB: 35 (63)
LIB Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
JVST Travel: 443 miles, 1 hrs behind

Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (32 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
JVST Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina	-3.5	54.5	L 27 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/7	Jacksonville State at Louisville	+27.5	56.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan	-2.5	53.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/21	Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss	-6.0	59.5	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/4	Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State	-17.5	49.5	W 63 - 24	O	Y
Wed 10/9	Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State	-21.0	58.5	W 54 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23	Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee	-20.5	64.5	W 42 - 20	U	Y
Wed 10/30	Jacksonville State at Liberty	+2.5	64.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech	-10.0	55.5	W 44 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/16	Jacksonville State vs Florida International	-12.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston	-5.5	57.5	W 21 - 11	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky	-0.5	62.5	L 17 - 19	U	N
Fri 12/6	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	-4.5	58.5	W 52 - 12	O	Y
Fri 12/20	Jacksonville State vs Ohio	+6.5	57.5	L 27 - 30	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule

Liberty's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Liberty vs Campbell	-41.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/7	Liberty at New Mexico State	-22.5	54.5	W 30 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Liberty vs UTEP	-23.5	57.5	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	Liberty vs East Carolina	-7.5	55.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8	Liberty vs Florida International	-15.5	56.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23	Liberty at Kennesaw State	-27.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	N
Wed 10/30	Liberty vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	64.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/9	Liberty at Middle Tennessee	-12.5	54.5	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Liberty at Massachusetts	-17.0	53.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/23	Liberty vs Western Kentucky	-1.0	56.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Liberty at Sam Houston	-2.5	47.5	L 18 - 20	U	N
Sat 1/4	Liberty vs Buffalo	+4.5	50.5	L 7 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#22 (.27)	45% (35)	36	49% (18)	3.36 (17)	254	40% (95)	189	4.85 (3)	#55 (.14)	43% (84)	26.1	44% (79)	43% (85)	3.81 (70)	58.4	1.1	1.6
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)	28.8	54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)	23.5	39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
JVST	#22 (.27)	45% (35)		49% (18)	3.36 (17)	254	40% (95)	189	4.85 (3)	#55 (.14)	43% (84)		44% (79)	43% (85)	3.81 (70)	58.4	1.1	1.6
LIB	#24 (.26)	50% (7)		54% (2)	3.56 (7)	238	43% (60)	161	4.21 (43)	#24 (.1)	39% (39)		39% (30)	40% (66)	3.68 (58)	64.4	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Offense	14	36	33.8	45.2%	4.85	1.1	23	443	254	189	5.5	64%	36%	49%	40%	11%	.27
LIB Defense	12	23.5	22.3	39.4%	3.68	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	39%	40%	16%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
JVST Defense	14	26.1	31.2	43.2%	3.81	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	44%	43%	16%	.14
LIB Offense	12	28.8	32.3	49.9%	4.21	1.3	22	400	238	161	5.7	63%	36%	54%	43%	14%	.26

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Jacksonville State	14	26:57	22.6	41%	54%	6	58.4	1.1	1.6	5.6	1.7	1	28.5
Liberty	12	28:42	22.1	45%	50%	6.7	64.4	1.3	1.3	5	1.6	0	28.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Offense	14	64% (4)	49% (18)	45.9	253.6	5.5	51 (1)	.25 (15)	3.36 (17)	67% (107)	8% (23)	1.07 (32)
LIB Defense	12	55% (115)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	.02 (20)	2.68 (21)	73% (62)	10% (59)	0.99 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
JVST Defense	14	54% (108)	44% (79)	-	-	-	-	.09 (52)	3.01 (72)	63% (20)	10% (59)	0.88 (22)
LIB Offense	12	63% (5)	54% (2)	41.8	238.3	5.7	28 (25)	.25 (16)	3.56 (7)	76% (47)	9% (43)	0.91 (94)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Offense	14	36% (131)	40% (95)	13.4	22.3	189.4	8.5	14.1	14 (108)	7 (26)	.33 (35)	1.9 (5)	27% (10)	32% (65)	.33 (72)	3% (8)	2.1 (51)
LIB Defense	12	45% (19)	40% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.21 (51)	1.6 (77)	32% (73)	31% (81)	.18 (17)	6% (82)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
JVST Defense	14	46% (27)	43% (85)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.21 (55)	1.5 (56)	30% (102)	33% (105)	.36 (92)	6% (63)	2 (45)
LIB Offense	12	36% (130)	43% (60)	12.6	22.3	161.2	7.2	12.8	15 (98)	6 (10)	.27 (56)	1.5 (104)	24% (2)	36% (23)	.43 (26)	5% (36)	1.9 (107)

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -5.79 #85
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 24.74 #21
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 10.35 #76
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Jacksonville State's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Jacksonville State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #57
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -5.79 Liberty: 2.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Jacksonville State: -1.0 Liberty: 0.2

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 2.89 #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37 #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21 #38
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 36 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Jacksonville State's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 35
Jacksonville State 28

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Jacksonville State 39
Liberty 25

Total Points: 64

Based on Entire Season
Liberty 30
Jacksonville State 29

Total Points: 59

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Jacksonville State	34	Liberty	24	Liberty -6.0	Jacksonville State	50.5	Over
2024	10/30	Liberty	21	Jacksonville State	31	Liberty -2.5	Jacksonville State	64.0	Under
2023	10/10	Jacksonville State	13	Liberty	31	Liberty -7	Liberty	59.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	1	1	1 Overs
Jacksonville State	2	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#85) JVST at (#60) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	JVST	LIB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#85	#60
SP+SP+	#73	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#68	#36
OffenseOff	#33	#21
DefenseDef	#84	#73
Spec TeamsST	#132	#98
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#82

Jacksonville State Notes(12/21) Hired HC C Kelly (Aub Co-DC, 1st time HC)
(12/2) Rgame good, Pass bad, 2-13 on 3rd, QB Huff hurt
(12/2) L to WKU, held to 13 1st downs (season low)
(12/1) QB Huff inj (ankle) in finale. ? in CUSA title gm
(11/25) Rgame mauled Sam H, clinched CUSA title game
(11/18) Fight w/ FIU? Def awful esp Run, Rgame great
(11/1) 4-0, avg 28 ppg margin in Oct, although lowering
(10/30) RB Steward 232 yds, 8.6, 4 TD in Liberty upset
(10/30) Won five straight after bad 0-3 start to '24
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/4) Killed S Miss. Off improving, QB Huff dual threat
(9/23) Rough start, Def awful. QB Huff is good though
Jacksonville State Injury Report

Liberty Notes(11/25) Rgame 400+ yds (WKU), W vs SHSU=CUSA title gm
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
(7/30) QB Salter is v good & mobile. Best backfield in G5?
Liberty Injury Report

Jacksonville State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	LIB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#33	#73
SuccessSuc	#35	#39
ExplosiveExp	#30	#67
PPAPPA	#22	#24
PowerPwr	#21	#38
SP+SP+	#57	#70
Pts POPPO	#3	#58
HavocHav	#7	#71

Jacksonville State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#11	#73
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#30
Run ExplRExp	#32	#68
PPAExp	#15	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#17	#21
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#28
TackleTak	-	#71

Jacksonville State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#53	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	#95	#66
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#77
PPAExp	#35	#51
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#93	#67
F7 HavocF7	#23	#59
DB HavocDB	#8	#82

Liberty on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	JVST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#84
SuccessSuc	#7	#84
ExplosiveExp	#131	#27
PPAPPA	#24	#55
PowerPwr	#17	#76
SP+SP+	#60	#81
Pts POPPO	#43	#70
HavocHav	#33	#66

Liberty Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#39	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	#79
Run ExplRExp	#94	#22
PPAExp	#16	#52
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#7	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#9	#63
TackleTak	-	#24

Liberty Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#60	#85
Pass ExplPExl	#104	#56
PPAExp	#56	#55
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#121
F7 HavocF7	#43	#59
DB HavocDB	#36	#63

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 63°

Rematch from Week 10
Liberty -2.5 (64.0)
Jacksonville State won at Liberty this year (31-21)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Liberty last year (31-21)
Liberty beat Jacksonville State in 2023 (31-13)

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Huff (Tr)	178	293	61%	2543	14	7	8.7
Logan Smothers	11	19	58%	123	0	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Stewart	279	1636	25	5.9	75
Tyler Huff (Tr)	227	1344	15	5.9	51
Logan Smothers	22	175	3	8.0	72
Andrew Paul (Tr)	38	166	4	4.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Vaughn	49	804	5	16.4	75
Michael Pettway	25	454	3	18.2	92
Brock Rechsteiner	16	241	2	15.1	85
Tre Stewart	17	233	1	13.7	50

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Luke Olson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fred Perry	109	10	3	2	2
Antonio Carter II (Tr)	103	3	0	1	3
Reginald Hughes (Tr)	83	10	4	6	0
Laletia Hale	80	8	4	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reginald Hughes (Tr)	83	10	4	6	0
Laletia Hale	80	8	4	2	3
Jaylen Swain	44	11	4	2	0
Fred Perry	109	10	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jabari Mack	32	2	11
Zechariah Poyser	77	3	8
Geimere Latimer	46	0	5

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	147	261	56%	1886	15	6	7.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)	8	19	42%	88	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley	205	1254	13	6.1	44
Billy Lucas	123	720	5	5.9	55
Kaidon Salter	114	587	7	5.1	41
Vaughn Blue	35	207	1	5.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Treon Sibley	28	510	2	18.2	70
Elijah Canion (Tr)	25	354	3	14.2	50
Reese Smith	18	277	4	15.4	44
Tyson Mobley (Tr)	29	276	1	9.5	25

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Jerome Jolly Jr.	55	5	1	1	1
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
CJ Bazile Jr.	54	5	2	2	0
Quinton Reese	40	5	2	1	0
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Bush	58	10	6	1	4
Joseph Carter	88	5	2	0	3
A'Khori Jones	53	5	0	0	3