New Mexico State at Sam Houston - 2024 Matchup Preview
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New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston Bearkats

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Saturday, September 21st 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Sam Houston -15.5 (44.5) (-750)  Open: 0.0
Sam Houston 31 - New Mexico State: 11  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NMSU 2nd straight Road Game
SHSU 2nd straight Home Game
SHSU is playing their 4th straight game
NMSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Sam Houston -17.5  (SP+ SHSU -12)

Projected Score: NMSU: 16 - SHSU: 33 (49)
SHSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
NMSU Travel: 668 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (18 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.552.5W 23 - 16UN
Sat 9/7 New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.554.5L 24 - 30UY
Sat 9/14 New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.548.5L 0 - 48UN
Sat 9/21 New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.544.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 9/28 New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.554.0L 40 - 50ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9 New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.058.5L 13 - 54ON
Tue 10/15 New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.549.0W 33 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.043.5L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/9 New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.053.5L 28 - 41OY
Sat 11/16 New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.554.5L 3 - 38UY
Sat 11/23 New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.554.0W 36 - 21OY
Sat 11/30 New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.551.5L 35 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Sam Houston at Rice+9.549.0W 34 - 14UY
Sat 9/7 Sam Houston at UCF+21.553.5L 14 - 45ON
Sat 9/14 Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.548.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.544.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 9/28 Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.055.0W 40 - 39OY
Thu 10/3 Sam Houston at UTEP-10.049.5W 41 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16 Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.555.0L 14 - 31UN
Tue 10/22 Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.047.0W 10 - 7UN
Tue 10/29 Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.545.5W 9 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.042.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 11/23 Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.557.5L 11 - 21UN
Fri 11/29 Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.547.5W 20 - 18UY
Thu 12/19 Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.548.0W 31 - 26OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#29 (.28)47% (17)21.652% (7)3.57 (5)19942% (61)2143.98 (59)#91 (.22)45% (103)27.646% (96)44% (96)3.73 (63)58.310.9
SHSU#115 (.1)37% (118)17.834% (130)2.61 (131)8940% (84)2223.47 (97)#69 (.18)41% (58)37.841% (55)42% (75)3.77 (64)42.21.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SHSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1521.62047.3%3.981204121992145.755%45%52%42%14%.28
SHSU Defense1237.837.841.3%3.771.7 - - - - - 53%47%41%42%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1527.637.544.5%3.730.9 - - - - - 47%52%46%44%16%.22
SHSU Offense1217.817.836.9%3.471.318311892222.943%55%34%40%15%.1

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1531:2820.543%58%6.258.310.95.52.1128.2
Sam Houston1229:4118.336%59%5.142.21.31.74.31.4228
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1555% (31)52% (7)35.1198.65.722 (51).27 (11)3.57 (5)81% (17)8% (35)0.96 (92)
SHSU Defense1253% (104)41% (55) - - - - .16 (80)3.2 (92)79% (104)8% (119)1.02 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1547% (33)46% (96) - - - - .2 (103)3.21 (95)74% (73)10% (70)1.02 (80)
SHSU Offense1243% (110)34% (130)30.789.12.913 (108)-.02 (129)2.61 (131)83% (7)9% (56)0.81 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1545% (100)42% (61)15.726.2213.78.213.628 (23)10 (56).33 (52)1.7 (32)29% (15)34% (40).42 (41)6% (61)2 (68)
SHSU Defense1247% (32)42% (75) - - - - - - 13 (26).23 (49)1.5 (24)31% (79)27% (25).26 (41)6% (87)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1552% (108)44% (96) - - - - - - 7 (111).25 (53)1.5 (20)29% (114)30% (67).38 (102)6% (83)2.3 (121)
SHSU Offense1255% (25)40% (84)23.537.3222.369.515 (96)12 (85).24 (81)1.4 (127)34% (105)24% (124).17 (112)6% (55)1.9 (119)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -24.23  #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52  #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79  #119
2024 Talent Rating: 127.00  #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0  #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8  #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1  #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -24.23   Sam Houston: -4.36

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -19.0   Sam Houston: -6.9




Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -4.36  #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75  #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81  #54
2024 Talent Rating: 163.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9  #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0  #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8  #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Sam Houston 33
New Mexico State 16


Projected Total Points: 49
Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.8

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/02New Mexico State37Sam Houston10Sam Houston -1.5New Mexico State53.5Under
202409/21Sam Houston31New Mexico State11Sam Houston -15.5Sam Houston44.5Under
202310/11New Mexico State27Sam Houston13New Mexico State -4.5New Mexico State43.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Sam Houston110 Overs
New Mexico State223 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 03 - 02 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 30 - 10 - 2

(#129) NMSU at (#88) SHSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSUSHSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #129 #88
SP+SP+ #125 #98
Perf GradeGrade #126 #95
OffenseOff #130 #104
DefenseDef #108 #75
Spec TeamsST #72 #105
TalentTal #128 #125
Blue ChipsBC% #53 #102
New Mexico State Notes
(10/29) QBs 7-19, 30 yds, 2 INT vs FIU. Pass Off #132
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?
(7/30) New HC Sanchez an awful hire, disaster at UNLV
New Mexico State Injury Report
Sam Houston Notes
(12/1) HC Keeler left for Temple? From PA but why?
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great
(7/30) 2nd year in FBS/CUSA, started 0-8, won 3/4 late
(7/30) New QB Bauer (CMU starter) should have good WR
(7/30) 4/5 OL and top 2 RB back, improve poor run off LY?
(7/30) Def returns but new DC. Roster most CUSA exp'd
Sam Houston Injury Report
New Mexico State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffSHSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #130 #75
SuccessSuc #17 #58
ExplosiveExp #88 #39
PPAPPA #29 #69
PowerPwr #111 #54
SP+SP+ #120 #46
Pts POPPO #59 #64
HavocHav #34 #117
New Mexico State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #102 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #7 #55
Run ExplRExp #92 #82
PPAExp #11 #80
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #5 #92
Stuff RateStuff #51 #112
TackleTak -  #48
New Mexico State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #133 #40
Pass SuccessPSuc #61 #75
Pass ExplPExl #32 #24
PPAExp #52 #49
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #103 #34
F7 HavocF7 #35 #119
DB HavocDB #61 #87
Sam Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatSHSU OffNMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #104 #108
SuccessSuc #118 #103
ExplosiveExp #120 #44
PPAPPA #115 #91
PowerPwr #110 #119
SP+SP+ #117 #127
Pts POPPO #97 #63
HavocHav #56 #83
Sam Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #103 #103
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #96
Run ExplRExp #130 #80
PPAExp #129 #103
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #95
Stuff RateStuff #55 #87
TackleTak -  #68
Sam Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatSHSU OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #97 #96
Pass SuccessPSuc #84 #96
Pass ExplPExl #127 #20
PPAExp #81 #53
Pass Block/RushP Blk #71 #130
F7 HavocF7 #56 #70
DB HavocDB #55 #83
Program Comparison
SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bowers Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Sam Houston -15.5 (44.5)
Sam Houston won vs New Mexico State this year (31-11)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston last year (37-10)
Sam Houston beat New Mexico State in 2024 (31-11)
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston in 2023 (27-13)

  
NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)4911244%519354.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan15381335.338
Michael Washington15871384.547
Santino Marucci (Tr)3713113.538
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Seth McGowan23277312.043
Kordell David18191010.638

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Da'Marcus Crosby812003
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Buddha Peleti206461
Kale Edwards (Tr)367440
Noah Arinze165310
Tyler Martinez943101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)363016
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025

SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson15225360%15981186.3
Jase Bauer (Tr)406562%310214.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jevyon Ducker14871974.986
Hunter Watson15262374.146
DJ McKinney9547935.059
Jase Bauer (Tr)4519504.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Simeon Evans43474511.064
Qua'Vez Humphreys18362420.167
Noah Smith3528508.122
Ife Adeyi2623819.232

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver863016
Kavian Gaither848052
Trey Fields726121
Isaiah Cash582109
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Murray3412620
Briceon Hayes267532
Isaiah Nixon196450
Richard Outland155330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Cash582109
Caleb Weaver863016
David Fisher332006