Liberty at New Mexico State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo Liberty Flames at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State logo
Saturday, September 7th 2024 (10:15 PM EDT)
Liberty -22.5 (54.5) (-2000)  Open: -22.5 | 56.5
Liberty 30 - New Mexico State: 24  (Conference USA)

 
Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NMSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Liberty -19.5  (SP+ LIB -19)

Projected Score: LIB: 38 - NMSU: 18 (56)
LIB Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
LIB Travel: 1597 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Liberty vs Campbell-41.558.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/7 Liberty at New Mexico State-22.554.5W 30 - 24UN
Sat 9/14 Liberty vs UTEP-23.557.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/21 Liberty vs East Carolina-7.555.0W 35 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8 Liberty vs Florida International-15.556.0W 31 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23 Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.048.0L 24 - 27ON
Wed 10/30 Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.564.0L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/9 Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.554.5W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/16 Liberty at Massachusetts-17.053.0W 35 - 34ON
Sat 11/23 Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.056.5W 38 - 21OY
Fri 11/29 Liberty at Sam Houston-2.547.5L 18 - 20UN
Sat 1/4 Liberty vs Buffalo+4.550.5L 7 - 26UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.552.5W 23 - 16UN
Sat 9/7 New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.554.5L 24 - 30UY
Sat 9/14 New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.548.5L 0 - 48UN
Sat 9/21 New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.544.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 9/28 New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.554.0L 40 - 50ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9 New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.058.5L 13 - 54ON
Tue 10/15 New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.549.0W 33 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.043.5L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/9 New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.053.5L 28 - 41OY
Sat 11/16 New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.554.5L 3 - 38UY
Sat 11/23 New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.554.0W 36 - 21OY
Sat 11/30 New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.551.5L 35 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)28.854% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)23.539% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)36.343% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1228.828.849.9%4.211.3224002381615.763%36%54%43%14%.26
NMSU Defense1236.334.841.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1223.524.439.4%3.681.3 - - - - - 55%45%39%40%16%.1
NMSU Offense1221.630.539.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1228:4222.145%50%6.764.41.31.351.6028.5
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1263% (5)54% (2)41.8238.35.728 (25).25 (16)3.56 (7)76% (47)9% (43)0.91 (94)
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1255% (115)39% (30) - - - - .02 (20)2.68 (21)73% (62)10% (59)0.99 (68)
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1236% (130)43% (60)12.622.3161.27.212.815 (98)6 (10).27 (56)1.5 (104)24% (2)36% (23).43 (26)5% (36)1.9 (107)
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1245% (19)40% (66) - - - - - - 8 (93).21 (51)1.6 (77)32% (73)31% (81).18 (17)6% (82)1.8 (9)
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 0.58  #60
Liberty's Offense Rating: 25.37  #17
Liberty's Defense Rating: 6.21  #38
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #82
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2  #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2  #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.58   New Mexico State: -19.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 0.2   New Mexico State: -19.0




New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -19.115  #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52  #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79  #119
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0  #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8  #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1  #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 38
New Mexico State 18


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Liberty 29
New Mexico State 26

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Liberty 32
New Mexico State 25

Total Points: 57
New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/14Liberty30New Mexico State27Liberty -10.5New Mexico State48.5Over
202409/07New Mexico State24Liberty30Liberty -22.5New Mexico State54.5Under
202309/09Liberty33New Mexico State17Liberty -9Liberty54.5Under
202312/01Liberty49New Mexico State35Liberty -10.5Liberty54.0Over
202211/26Liberty14New Mexico State49Liberty -24.0New Mexico State51.0Over
201910/05New Mexico State13Liberty20Liberty -4.5Liberty62.5Under
201911/30Liberty49New Mexico State28Liberty -14.5Liberty68.0Over
201810/06New Mexico State49Liberty41Liberty -3New Mexico State64.0Over
201811/24Liberty28New Mexico State21Liberty -7Push72.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico State245 Overs
Liberty744 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 35 - 33 - 22 - 1
Road Teams3 - 63 - 51 - 22 - 3

(#60) LIB at (#129) NMSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLIBNMSU
Power RatePwr #60 #129
SP+SP+ #71 #125
Perf GradeGrade #36 #126
OffenseOff #21 #130
DefenseDef #73 #108
Spec TeamsST #98 #72
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #82 #53
Liberty Notes
(11/25) Rgame 400+ yds (WKU), W vs SHSU=CUSA title gm
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back
(9/8) Dogfight/Comeback W @ NMSU? 1-11 on 3rd down
(8/3) Roster/Talent vs who they play is a joke.  
(7/30) 2nd Easiest sched, fav'd in all, need 13-0 for CFP
(7/30) QB Salter is v good & mobile. Best backfield in G5?
Liberty Injury Report
New Mexico State Notes
(10/29) QBs 7-19, 30 yds, 2 INT vs FIU. Pass Off #132
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?
(7/30) New HC Sanchez an awful hire, disaster at UNLV
New Mexico State Injury Report
Liberty on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat
LIB OffNMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #21 #108
SuccessSuc #7 #64
ExplosiveExp #131 #127
PPAPPA #24 #115
PowerPwr #17 #119
SP+SP+ #60 #127
Pts POPPO #43 #60
HavocHav #33 #128
Liberty Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat
LIB OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #39 #103
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #69
Run ExplRExp #94 #95
PPAExp #16 #98
Run BlockR Blk #4 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #93
Stuff RateStuff #9 #66
TackleTak -  #68
Liberty Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat
LIB OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #38 #96
Pass SuccessPSuc #60 #68
Pass ExplPExl #104 #132
PPAExp #56 #118
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #102 #130
F7 HavocF7 #43 #134
DB HavocDB #36 #78
New Mexico State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNMSU OffLIB Def
Perf GradePerf #130 #73
SuccessSuc #106 #39
ExplosiveExp #95 #67
PPAPPA #119 #24
PowerPwr #111 #38
SP+SP+ #120 #70
Pts POPPO #82 #58
HavocHav #112 #71
New Mexico State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #102 #73
Run SuccessRSuc #41 #30
Run ExplRExp #61 #68
PPAExp #81 #20
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #21
Stuff RateStuff #28 #28
TackleTak -  #71
New Mexico State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNMSU OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #133 #62
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #66
Pass ExplPExl #17 #77
PPAExp #128 #51
Pass Block/RushP Blk #103 #67
F7 HavocF7 #103 #59
DB HavocDB #104 #82
Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78°
Rematch from Week 2
Liberty 22.5 (54.5)
Liberty won at New Mexico State this year (30-24)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat New Mexico State last year (30-24)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2023 (49-35)
New Mexico State beat Liberty in 2022 (49-14)

  
LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter14726156%18861567.2
Ryan Burger (Tr)81942%88004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Cooley2051254136.144
Billy Lucas12372055.955
Kaidon Salter11458775.141
Vaughn Blue3520715.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Treon Sibley28510218.270
Elijah Canion (Tr)25354314.250
Reese Smith18277415.444
Tyson Mobley (Tr)2927619.525

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter885203
T.J. Bush5810614
Jerome Jolly Jr.555111
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
Quinton Reese405210
Joseph Carter885203
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
Joseph Carter885203
A'Khori Jones535003

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)4911244%519354.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan15381335.338
Michael Washington15871384.547
Santino Marucci (Tr)3713113.538
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Seth McGowan23277312.043
Kordell David18191010.638

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Da'Marcus Crosby812003
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Buddha Peleti206461
Kale Edwards (Tr)367440
Noah Arinze165310
Tyler Martinez943101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)363016
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025