Sam Houston at Jacksonville State - 2024 Matchup Preview
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Sam Houston Bearkats at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

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Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Jacksonville State -5.5 (57.5) (-198)  Open: -6.5
Jacksonville State 21 - Sam Houston: 11  (Conference USA)

 
Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SHSU 2nd straight Road Game
JVST 2nd straight Home Game
JVST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Jacksonville State -6  (SP+ JVST -6)

Projected Score: SHSU: 25 - JVST: 31 (57)
JVST Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
SHSU Travel: 610 miles
Gamecocks (9 - 5) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (18 - 6)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (34 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Sam Houston at Rice+9.549.0W 34 - 14UY
Sat 9/7 Sam Houston at UCF+21.553.5L 14 - 45ON
Sat 9/14 Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.548.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/21 Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.544.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 9/28 Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.055.0W 40 - 39OY
Thu 10/3 Sam Houston at UTEP-10.049.5W 41 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16 Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.555.0L 14 - 31UN
Tue 10/22 Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.047.0W 10 - 7UN
Tue 10/29 Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.545.5W 9 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.042.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 11/23 Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.557.5L 11 - 21UN
Fri 11/29 Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.547.5W 20 - 18UY
Thu 12/19 Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.548.0W 31 - 26OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina-3.554.5L 27 - 55ON
Sat 9/7 Jacksonville State at Louisville+27.556.5L 14 - 49ON
Sat 9/14 Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan-2.553.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 9/21 Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss-6.059.5W 44 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/4 Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State-17.549.5W 63 - 24OY
Wed 10/9 Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State-21.058.5W 54 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23 Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee-20.564.5W 42 - 20UY
Wed 10/30 Jacksonville State at Liberty+2.564.0W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/9 Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech-10.055.5W 44 - 37ON
Sat 11/16 Jacksonville State vs Florida International-12.558.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston-5.557.5W 21 - 11UY
Sat 11/30 Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky-0.562.5L 17 - 19UN
Fri 12/6 Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky-4.558.5W 52 - 12OY
Fri 12/20 Jacksonville State vs Ohio+6.557.5L 27 - 30UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)37% (118)17.834% (130)2.61 (131)8940% (84)2223.47 (97)#69 (.18)41% (58)37.841% (55)42% (75)3.77 (64)42.21.31.7
JVST#103 (.13)42% (65)28.146% (41)3.08 (73)23738% (101)1713.77 (79)#10 (.07)36% (15)25.233% (6)39% (39)3.33 (24)43.41.61.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
JVST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense1217.815.136.9%3.471.318311892222.943%55%34%40%15%.1
JVST Defense1325.22335.9%3.331.9 - - - - - 50%48%33%39%18%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense1237.83941.3%3.771.7 - - - - - 53%47%41%42%14%.18
JVST Offense1328.13442.3%3.771.6224082371714.861%38%46%38%16%.13

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston1229:4118.336%59%5.142.21.31.74.31.4228
Jacksonville State1326:4322.238%52%4.843.41.61.972.9130.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense1243% (110)34% (130)30.789.12.913 (108)-.02 (129)2.61 (131)83% (7)9% (56)0.81 (130)
JVST Defense1350% (66)33% (6) - - - - -.06 (2)2.45 (4)71% (57)12% (28)0.85 (12)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense1253% (104)41% (55) - - - - .16 (80)3.2 (92)79% (104)8% (119)1.02 (82)
JVST Offense1361% (8)46% (41)49.8236.74.835 (5).18 (51)3.08 (73)72% (82)9% (54)0.99 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense1255% (25)40% (84)23.537.3222.369.515 (96)12 (85).24 (81)1.4 (127)34% (105)24% (124).17 (112)6% (55)1.9 (119)
JVST Defense1348% (53)39% (39) - - - - - - 16 (9).27 (69)1.7 (106)35% (30)25% (12).18 (10)6% (68)2 (63)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense1247% (32)42% (75) - - - - - - 13 (26).23 (49)1.5 (24)31% (79)27% (25).26 (41)6% (87)2.1 (88)
JVST Offense1338% (128)38% (101)1426.91716.412.212 (113)12 (85).12 (119)1.6 (75)31% (47)30% (71).15 (119)6% (90)2 (90)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -6.82  #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75  #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81  #54
2024 Talent Rating: 163.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9  #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0  #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8  #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -6.82   Jacksonville State: -0.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -6.9   Jacksonville State: -1.0




Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -0.895  #85
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 24.74  #21
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 10.35  #76
2024 Talent Rating: 149.00  #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #53
Jacksonville State's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Jacksonville State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0  #73
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #57
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #81

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.1
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Jacksonville State 31
Sam Houston 25


Projected Total Points: 57
Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

Jacksonville State's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/09Sam Houston27Jacksonville State29Jacksonville State -7Sam Houston53.5Over
202411/23Jacksonville State21Sam Houston11Jacksonville State -5.5Jacksonville State57.5Under
202309/28Sam Houston28Jacksonville State35Jacksonville State -6.5Jacksonville State36.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Jacksonville State322 Overs
Sam Houston011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 22 - 11 - 01 - 1
Road Teams2 - 11 - 21 - 10 - 1

(#88) SHSU at (#85) JVST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSHSUJVST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #88 #85
SP+SP+ #98 #73
Perf GradeGrade #95 #68
OffenseOff #104 #33
DefenseDef #75 #84
Spec TeamsST #105 #132
TalentTal #125 #127
Blue ChipsBC% #102 #53
Sam Houston Notes
(12/1) HC Keeler left for Temple? From PA but why?
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great
(7/30) 2nd year in FBS/CUSA, started 0-8, won 3/4 late
(7/30) New QB Bauer (CMU starter) should have good WR
(7/30) 4/5 OL and top 2 RB back, improve poor run off LY?
(7/30) Def returns but new DC. Roster most CUSA exp'd
Sam Houston Injury Report
Jacksonville State Notes
(12/21) Hired HC C Kelly (Aub Co-DC, 1st time HC)
(12/2) Rgame good, Pass bad, 2-13 on 3rd, QB Huff hurt
(12/2) L to WKU, held to 13 1st downs (season low)
(12/1) QB Huff inj (ankle) in finale. ? in CUSA title gm
(11/25) Rgame mauled Sam H, clinched CUSA title game
(11/18) Fight w/ FIU? Def awful esp Run, Rgame great
(11/1) 4-0, avg 28 ppg margin in Oct, although lowering
(10/30) RB Steward 232 yds, 8.6, 4 TD in Liberty upset
(10/30) Won five straight after bad 0-3 start to '24
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/4) Killed S Miss. Off improving, QB Huff dual threat
(9/23) Rough start, Def awful. QB Huff is good though
Jacksonville State Injury Report
Sam Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffJVST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #104 #84
SuccessSuc #118 #15
ExplosiveExp #120 #80
PPAPPA #115 #10
PowerPwr #110 #76
SP+SP+ #117 #81
Pts POPPO #97 #24
HavocHav #56 #37
Sam Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffJVST Def
Run GameRun #103 #60
Run SuccessRSuc #130 #6
Run ExplRExp #130 #12
PPAExp #129 #2
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #4
Stuff RateStuff #55 #13
TackleTak -  #24
Sam Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffJVST Def
Pass GamePass #97 #70
Pass SuccessPSuc #84 #39
Pass ExplPExl #127 #106
PPAExp #81 #69
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #71 #121
F7 HavocF7 #56 #28
DB HavocDB #55 #68
Jacksonville State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCatJVST OffSHSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #33 #75
SuccessSuc #65 #58
ExplosiveExp #117 #39
PPAPPA #103 #69
PowerPwr #21 #54
SP+SP+ #57 #46
Pts POPPO #79 #64
HavocHav #66 #117
Jacksonville State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat
JVST OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #11 #121
Run SuccessRSuc #41 #55
Run ExplRExp #73 #82
PPAExp #51 #80
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLY #73 #92
Stuff RateStuff #75 #112
TackleTak -  #48
Jacksonville State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCatJVST OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #53 #40
Pass SuccessPSuc #101 #75
Pass ExplPExl #75 #24
PPAExp #119 #49
Pass Block/RushP Blk #93 #34
F7 HavocF7 #54 #119
DB HavocDB #90 #87
Program Comparison
JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in JSU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Jacksonville State -5.5 (57.5)
Jacksonville State won vs Sam Houston this year (21-11)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Sam Houston last year (29-27)
Jacksonville State beat Sam Houston in 2024 (21-11)
Jacksonville State beat Sam Houston in 2023 (35-28)

  
SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson15225360%15981186.3
Jase Bauer (Tr)406562%310214.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jevyon Ducker14871974.986
Hunter Watson15262374.146
DJ McKinney9547935.059
Jase Bauer (Tr)4519504.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Simeon Evans43474511.064
Qua'Vez Humphreys18362420.167
Noah Smith3528508.122
Ife Adeyi2623819.232

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver863016
Kavian Gaither848052
Trey Fields726121
Isaiah Cash582109
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Murray3412620
Briceon Hayes267532
Isaiah Nixon196450
Richard Outland155330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Cash582109
Caleb Weaver863016
David Fisher332006

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Huff (Tr)17829361%25431478.7
Logan Smothers111958%123006.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Stewart2791636255.975
Tyler Huff (Tr)2271344155.951
Logan Smothers2217538.072
Andrew Paul (Tr)3816644.428
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Vaughn49804516.475
Michael Pettway25454318.292
Brock Rechsteiner16241215.185
Tre Stewart17233113.750

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Luke Olson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fred Perry10910322
Antonio Carter II (Tr)1033013
Reginald Hughes (Tr)8310460
Laletia Hale808423
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reginald Hughes (Tr)8310460
Laletia Hale808423
Jaylen Swain4411420
Fred Perry10910322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jabari Mack3220011
Zechariah Poyser773008
Geimere Latimer460005