Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech - 2024 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Thursday, October 10th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Louisiana Tech -5 (48.0) (-218) Open: -3.5
Louisiana Tech 48 - Middle Tennessee: 21 (Conference USA)

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MTSU coming off BYE
LT coming off BYE
Our Line: Louisiana Tech -12 (SP+ LT -13)
Projected Score: MTSU: 19 - LT: 31 (50)
LT Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
MTSU Travel: 426 miles

Bulldogs (5 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (6 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (37 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 8 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
LT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech	-11.5
Sat 9/7	Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss	+42.5	60.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/14	Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky	+10.5	53.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Middle Tennessee vs Duke	+14.5	51.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Memphis	+27.0	62.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech	+5.0	48.0	L 21 - 48	O	N
Tue 10/15	Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State	-8.5	50.0	W 14 - 5	U	Y
Wed 10/23	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+20.5	64.5	L 20 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/2	Middle Tennessee at UTEP	+2.0	48.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Middle Tennessee vs Liberty	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State	-3.5	54.0	L 21 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/30	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+9.5	50.5	L 24 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls	-17.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Louisiana Tech at NC State	+20.5	47.5	L 20 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa	-3.0	56.5	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/28	Louisiana Tech vs Florida International	-2.0	49.0	L 10 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee	-5.0	48.0	W 48 - 21	O	Y
Tue 10/15	Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State	-12.5	49.0	L 30 - 33	O	N
Tue 10/22	Louisiana Tech vs UTEP	-6.5	49.0	W 14 - 10	U	N
Tue 10/29	Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston	+10.5	45.5	L 3 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State	+10.0	55.5	L 37 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky	+11.5	52.5	W 12 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Louisiana Tech at Arkansas	+23.5	48.5	L 14 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State	-13.5	41.5	W 33 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/28	Louisiana Tech vs Army	+15.0	44.5	L 6 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#95 (.14)	39% (104)	22.4	41% (93)	3.08 (74)	126	39% (94)	266	3.2 (115)	#60 (.17)	43% (81)	30.9	45% (88)	42% (78)	4.13 (100)	56.3	1.8	1.3
LT	#91 (.15)	42% (64)	27.3	43% (66)	2.74 (122)	125	42% (63)	261	3.91 (67)	#111 (.25)	43% (78)	20.8	48% (117)	36% (15)	4.63 (128)	62.8	1.5	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	20.8	39.4%	3.2	1.8	19	391	126	266	3.9	42%	57%	41%	39%	17%	.14
LT Defense	12	20.8	17.3	42.8%	4.63	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	58%	41%	48%	36%	15%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	29.3	42.9%	4.13	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	17%	.17
LT Offense	12	27.3	36.5	42.3%	3.91	1.5	20	384	125	261	3.9	45%	54%	43%	42%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	12	28:32	19.3	40%	45%	6.8	56.3	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	0	28.8
Louisiana Tech	12	29:44	20.1	30%	50%	6.8	62.8	1.5	0.8	5.5	1.3	3	29.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	12	42% (117)	41% (93)	32	125.5	3.9	13 (108)	.1 (93)	3.08 (74)	79% (22)	11% (95)	1.08 (28)
LT Defense	12	58% (132)	48% (117)	-	-	-	-	.29 (129)	3.29 (109)	84% (121)	10% (83)	1.15 (119)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	12	47% (30)	45% (88)	-	-	-	-	.06 (24)	2.97 (43)	71% (57)	10% (65)	0.85 (13)
LT Offense	12	45% (102)	43% (66)	31.8	124.6	3.9	20 (61)	.11 (90)	2.74 (122)	74% (73)	12% (107)	0.97 (88)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	12	57% (18)	39% (94)	24.6	36.5	265.6	7.3	10.8	23 (51)	13 (97)	.24 (84)	1.6 (59)	34% (101)	26% (110)	.24 (94)	6% (70)	2.3 (6)
LT Defense	12	41% (2)	36% (15)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.23 (43)	1.9 (132)	32% (71)	31% (83)	.36 (94)	6% (79)	2.3 (125)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	12	52% (104)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (96)	1.5 (47)	30% (104)	32% (90)	.35 (88)	7% (31)	2.2 (100)
LT Offense	12	54% (32)	42% (63)	22.4	35.2	260.9	7.4	11.6	16 (92)	11 (68)	.23 (87)	1.6 (78)	32% (70)	25% (113)	.22 (103)	6% (76)	2.3 (13)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -24.28 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 193.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.28 Louisiana Tech: -12.38

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.4 Louisiana Tech: -11.6

Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -12.38 #119
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 7.48 #133
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 7.55 #49
2024 Talent Rating: 255.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 8.0
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.6 #110
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.9 #128
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Louisiana Tech 31
Middle Tennessee 19

Projected Total Points: 50

Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Louisiana Tech's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/10	Louisiana Tech	48	Middle Tennessee	21	Louisiana Tech -5	Louisiana Tech	48.0	Over
2023	10/10	Middle Tennessee	31	Louisiana Tech	23	Middle Tennessee -3	Middle Tennessee	53.5	Over
2022	11/05	Louisiana Tech	40	Middle Tennessee	24	Middle Tennessee -2.5	Louisiana Tech	64.0	Push
2016	09/24	Middle Tennessee	38	Louisiana Tech	34	Middle Tennessee -4	Push	69.5	Over
2015	10/24	Louisiana Tech	45	Middle Tennessee	16	Louisiana Tech -8.5	Louisiana Tech	63.0	Under
2000	10/06	Middle Tennessee	49	Louisiana Tech	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisiana Tech	3	3	3 Overs
Middle Tennessee	3	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 0	4 - 0	3 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 6	0 - 4	0 - 1	0 - 3

(#130) MTSU at (#119) LT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	LT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#130	#119
SP+SP+	#131	#110
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#113
OffenseOff	#125	#113
DefenseDef	#129	#94
Spec TeamsST	#120	#93
TalentTal	#119	#93
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#82

Middle Tennessee Notes(8/3) Will start 1-4, watch after bye on Oct 3
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)
(7/30) A D Mason team has to win with Off? Sept rough
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Louisiana Tech Notes(11/18) Upset WKU, Rgame 200+, Run Def great.
(10/23) Lucky W (UTEP), Rgame abysmal, QB Bullock OK
(10/16) Horrible loss @ NMSU. Rgame awful, QB bad TW
(10/10) Cumbie taking over playcalling duties (10/10)
(10/10) QB Bullock/Run game better-Cumbie playcalling
(10/4) Bottom 10 Off both Pass/Run. Def shockingly good
(10/4) Avg nearly 3 TO's per game, & can't move the ball
(9/25) Even w/ Tulsa, but 3 TOs cost them in OT loss
(9/15) Played w/ NC St. Off succ #130, near worst
(9/1) Dog fight W over Nicholls? Rgame awful, QBs meh
(8/17) Cumbie-reporter incident LY says all about him
(8/3) This is a roster that gets coaches fired
Louisiana Tech Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	LT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#94
SuccessSuc	#104	#78
ExplosiveExp	#14	#118
PPAPPA	#95	#111
PowerPwr	#105	#49
SP+SP+	#131	#64
Pts POPPO	#115	#128
HavocHav	#89	#86

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	LT Def
Run GameRun	#77	#56
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#117
Run ExplRExp	#28	#119
PPAExp	#93	#129
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#109
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#85
TackleTak	-	#96

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	LT Def
Pass GamePass	#33	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#15
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#132
PPAExp	#84	#43
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#136	#118
F7 HavocF7	#95	#83
DB HavocDB	#70	#79

Louisiana Tech on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	LT Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#113	#129
SuccessSuc	#64	#81
ExplosiveExp	#69	#23
PPAPPA	#91	#60
PowerPwr	#133	#131
SP+SP+	#128	#122
Pts POPPO	#67	#100
HavocHav	#100	#49

Louisiana Tech Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	LT Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#107	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#66	#88
Run ExplRExp	#88	#13
PPAExp	#90	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#129	-
OL YdsOLY	#122	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#108	#31
TackleTak	-	#83

Louisiana Tech Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	LT Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	#63	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#78	#47
PPAExp	#87	#96
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#53	#131
F7 HavocF7	#107	#65
DB HavocDB	#76	#31

Program Comparison
LT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Louisiana Tech -5.0 (48.0)
Louisiana Tech won vs Middle Tennessee this year (48-21)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana Tech beat Middle Tennessee in 2024 (48-21)
Middle Tennessee beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (31-23)

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	269	418	64%	3092	16	10	7.4
Roman Gagliano	4	9	44%	41	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle	109	471	4	4.3	66
Jekail Middlebrook	60	273	2	4.6	24
Terry Wilkins	54	214	1	4.0	23
Nick Vattiato	86	77	1	0.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis	53	871	6	16.4	61
Omari Kelly (Tr)	53	869	4	16.4	71
Myles Butler	30	366	3	12.2	61
Cam'Ron Lacy	20	190	0	9.5	44

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	0	0	3
Parker Hughes	69	2	0	1	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrell Raby	16	0	6
Marvae Myers-Glover	41	1	4
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	3

LT's OC Scott Parr (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Evan Bullock	199	302	66%	2107	14	3	7.0
Jack Turner	40	76	53%	471	2	2	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omiri Wiggins	111	527	4	4.7	35
Amani Givens	75	319	2	4.3	20
Marquis Crosby	57	224	1	3.9	31
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)	48	182	4	3.8	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tru Edwards	85	989	6	11.6	86
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)	39	476	2	12.2	32
Eli Finley	25	314	2	12.6	53
Jay Wilkerson	13	262	2	20.2	55

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Jeremiah Johnson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zach Zimos	84	6	1	5	1
Kolbe Fields	71	9	2	3	1
Blake Thompson (Tr)	60	3	0	0	3
Jacob Fields	54	6	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Blay	45	10	6	2	0
Sifa Leota (Tr)	42	6	4	1	1
Jessie Evans	40	6	3	4	0
J'Dan Burnett	21	3	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Cedric Woods	30	0	5
Demarcus Griffin-Taylor	53	2	5
Jacob Fields	54	6	4