Middle Tennessee at Memphis - 2024 Matchup Preview
Middle Tennessee logo Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Memphis TigersMemphis logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Memphis -27 (62.0) (-4000)  Open: -23.0
Memphis 24 - Middle Tennessee: 7

 
Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (14 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MEM is playing their 5th straight game
MTSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Memphis -35.5   (SP+ MEM -34)

Projected Score: MTSU: 12 - MEM: 47 (59)
MEM Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
MTSU Travel: 209 miles
Tigers (11 - 2) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (31 - 19)
Avg Score : 36 - 24 (38 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech-11.5
Sat 9/7 Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss+42.560.5L 3 - 52UN
Sat 9/14 Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky+10.553.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 9/21 Middle Tennessee vs Duke+14.551.0L 17 - 45ON
Sat 9/28 Middle Tennessee at Memphis+27.062.0L 7 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10 Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech+5.048.0L 21 - 48ON
Tue 10/15 Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-8.550.0W 14 - 5UY
Wed 10/23 Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State+20.564.5L 20 - 42UN
Sat 11/2 Middle Tennessee at UTEP+2.048.0W 20 - 13UY
Sat 11/9 Middle Tennessee vs Liberty+12.554.5L 17 - 37UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State-3.554.0L 21 - 36ON
Sat 11/30 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+9.550.5L 24 - 35ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Memphis's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Memphis vs North Alabama-38.562.5W 40 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Memphis vs Troy-18.557.5W 38 - 17UY
Sat 9/14 Memphis at Florida State+7.052.0W 20 - 12UY
Sat 9/21 Memphis at Navy-9.547.0L 44 - 56ON
Sat 9/28 Memphis vs Middle Tennessee-27.062.0W 24 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Memphis vs South Florida-10.061.0W 21 - 3UY
Sat 10/19 Memphis vs North Texas-10.567.5W 52 - 44ON
Sat 10/26 Memphis vs Charlotte-17.056.5W 33 - 28ON
Sat 11/2 Memphis at UTSA-7.062.0L 36 - 44ON
Fri 11/8 Memphis vs Rice-7.550.5W 27 - 20UN
Sat 11/16 Memphis vs UAB-16.062.0W 53 - 18OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/28 Memphis at Tulane+12.554.5W 34 - 24OY
Tue 12/17 Memphis vs West Virginia-5.060.0W 42 - 37ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)18.138% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)34.350% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)35.746% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)23.840% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1218.114.239.4%31.618352912613.241%59%38%40%19%.13
MEM Defense1323.819.140%4.051.9 - - - - - 43%56%40%40%20%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1234.335.849.4%4.610.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%49%14%.32
MEM Offense1335.738.143.7%4.660.6234461752705.146%54%46%41%12%.27

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1230:1518.238%48%7.361.31.60.84.61.7125.2
Memphis1333:1423.146%52%5.3480.61.95.81.9032.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1241% (123)38% (114)27.990.53.210 (122).04 (110)2.82 (104)56% (132)11% (100)0.98 (62)
MEM Defense1343% (5)40% (45) - - - - .09 (50)2.64 (20)64% (22)12% (20)1.13 (120)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1254% (104)50% (124) - - - - .19 (107)3.19 (97)72% (61)9% (100)0.97 (59)
MEM Offense1346% (99)46% (40)34.2175.15.133 (12).22 (26)3.27 (31)69% (93)7% (17)1.06 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1259% (11)40% (83)22.835.6261.17.311.516 (87)10 (63).19 (95)1.5 (102)32% (84)25% (123).17 (121)7% (112)1.9 (113)
MEM Defense1356% (130)40% (62) - - - - - - 11 (52).28 (90)1.7 (93)34% (40)30% (70).43 (112)8% (13)2.4 (134)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1246% (33)49% (127) - - - - - - 5 (117).47 (129)1.6 (90)27% (127)34% (109).53 (128)5% (101)2.3 (128)
MEM Offense1354% (33)41% (71)23.836.8270.57.311.325 (31)6 (10).31 (42)1.6 (47)30% (44)34% (40).47 (16)5% (32)2.1 (61)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -24.28 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.28   Memphis: 11.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.4   Memphis: 9.6




Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 11.26 #36
Memphis's Offense Rating: 23.90 #29
Memphis's Defense Rating: 8.77 #61
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Memphis's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
Memphis's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #12
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #80

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 47
Middle Tennessee 12


Total Points: 59

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.1
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.1

Memphis's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Memphis24Middle Tennessee7MemphisMemphis -27Middle Tennessee62.0Under
201409/20Memphis36Middle Tennessee17MemphisMemphis -7.5Memphis0
201309/14Middle Tennessee17Memphis15Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee -4Memphis0
201209/15Memphis30Middle Tennessee48Middle Tennessee
201110/01Middle Tennessee38Memphis31Middle Tennessee
201009/18Memphis24Middle Tennessee17Memphis
200909/12Middle Tennessee31Memphis14Middle Tennessee
200710/13Memphis7Middle Tennessee21Middle Tennessee
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Memphis320 Overs
Middle Tennessee511 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 21 - 21 - 20 - 0
Road Teams2 - 62 - 10 - 02 - 1

(#130) Middle Tennessee Info
Power Rating: -24.28 #130
Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Awful OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Middle Tennessee has lost 3 straight
Middle Tennessee has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Middle Tennessee Notes
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)

Middle Tennessee Highlights

Middle Tennessee Deficiencies
Middle Tennessee has a really bad Offense
Middle Tennessee Fumbles a Lot (#1)
Middle Tennessee Can Not Run the Ball (#133)
Middle Tennessee Commits a Lot of Penalties (#49)
Middle Tennessee offense is really bad (#119)
Middle Tennessee Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#125)
Middle Tennessee offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#129)
Middle Tennessee run game is really bad (#88)
Middle Tennessee Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Middle Tennessee has a bad defense (#86)
Middle Tennessee has a bad red zone defense (#109)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMEMMTSU
OverallOver#28#97
OffenseOff#21#101
DefenseDef#50#108
Special TeamsST#55#97
PassingPass#26#27
RushingRush#19#55
Run BlockRBLK#10#98
Pass BlockPBLK#9#119
Route RunningWR Rt#56#87
TacklingTkl#86#72
Run DefenseR Def#24#93
Pass Rush DefPRush#101#110
Coverage DefCov#62#105

Rematch from Week 5
Memphis -27.0 (62.0)
Memphis won vs Middle Tennessee this year (24-7)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Middle Tennessee last year (24-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MTSU | MEM
Depth Chart: MTSU | MEM
Rosters: MTSU | MEM
(#36) Memphis Info
Power Rating: 11.26 #36
Offense Rating: 23.90 #29
Defense Rating: 8.77 #61
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #12
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #80
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.66 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.05 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Memphis has lost 1 straight
Memphis has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 7 - 0 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Memphis Notes
(12/17) DC Jordon Hankins makes zero adjustments
(11/28) Buried Tulane. Hennigan/Rgame good, R D great
(11/18) Off balanced and torched UAB. Still alive in AAC
(11/3) Def torched by UTSA, Henigan great/Rgame awful
(10/20) Def torched by N. Tex, Off was great esp Rgame
(10/13) Def stuff S Fla, 24 rush yds, 1.3 ypc. Off enough
(9/23) Huge L @ Navy. Had 660 yds in L, All. 361 Ryds
(9/15) Big W @ FSU. Henigan good, Run Def great
(8/13) Def should improve w/ P5 portals in (starters in P5)
(8/13) QB Henigan (10K yds), WR's are G5 best & freaks

Memphis Highlights
Memphis is Undefeated at Home

Memphis offense is explosive (#67)
Memphis offense is good in red zone (#27)
Memphis offense is good on 3rd downs
Memphis Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#11)
Memphis Defensive Line is very good (#22)
Memphis Front 7 is disruptive (#7)
Memphis Secondary is very good (#38)
Memphis has a great TO Margin (#28)

Memphis Deficiencies
Memphis gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#94)


  
Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato26941864%309216107.4
Roman Gagliano4944%41004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaiden Credle10947144.366
Jekail Middlebrook6027324.624
Terry Wilkins5421414.023
Nick Vattiato867710.916
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Holden Willis53871616.461
Omari Kelly (Tr)53869416.471
Myles Butler30366312.261
Cam'Ron Lacy2019009.544

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster
Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Williams (Tr)753003
Parker Hughes692010
Anthony Bynum607311
Jalen Davis525201
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner374350
Anthony Bynum607311
Jalen Davis525201
Aidan Butts102202
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyrell Raby160006
Marvae Myers-Glover411004
Xavier Williams (Tr)753003

Memphis's OC Tim Cramsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Seth Henigan30947765%35022567.3
Harris Boyd11100%140014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mario Anderson (Tr)2361362185.853
Brandon Thomas5733595.957
Gregory DeRosiers3122837.446
Seth Henigan8019012.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Roc Taylor66950214.448
DeMeer Blankumsee45677615.089
Kobe Drake39484112.429
Anthony Landphere33379411.531

View Memphis's Full Roster
Memphis's DC Jordon Hankins
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Martin110167104
Gregory Rubin746038
Matt Hudson (Tr)604110
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Martin110167104
William Whitlow Jr.248531
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Kobee Minor (Tr)377206
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davion Ross5120211
Gregory Rubin746038
Kobee Minor (Tr)377206