Middle Tennessee at Memphis - 2024 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Memphis Tigers

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Memphis -27 (62.0) (-4000) Open: -23.0
Memphis 24 - Middle Tennessee: 7

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (14 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MEM is playing their 5th straight game
MTSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Memphis -35.5 (SP+ MEM -34)
Projected Score: MTSU: 12 - MEM: 48 (60)
MEM Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
MTSU Travel: 209 miles

Tigers (11 - 2) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (31 - 19)
Avg Score : 36 - 24 (38 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
MEM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech	-11.5
Sat 9/7	Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss	+42.5	60.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/14	Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky	+10.5	53.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Middle Tennessee vs Duke	+14.5	51.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Memphis	+27.0	62.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech	+5.0	48.0	L 21 - 48	O	N
Tue 10/15	Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State	-8.5	50.0	W 14 - 5	U	Y
Wed 10/23	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+20.5	64.5	L 20 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/2	Middle Tennessee at UTEP	+2.0	48.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Middle Tennessee vs Liberty	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State	-3.5	54.0	L 21 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/30	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+9.5	50.5	L 24 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Memphis's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Memphis vs North Alabama	-38.5	62.5	W 40 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Memphis vs Troy	-18.5	57.5	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Memphis at Florida State	+7.0	52.0	W 20 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Memphis at Navy	-9.5	47.0	L 44 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/28	Memphis vs Middle Tennessee	-27.0	62.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Memphis vs South Florida	-10.0	61.0	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Memphis vs North Texas	-10.5	67.5	W 52 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/26	Memphis vs Charlotte	-17.0	56.5	W 33 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/2	Memphis at UTSA	-7.0	62.0	L 36 - 44	O	N
Fri 11/8	Memphis vs Rice	-7.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/16	Memphis vs UAB	-16.0	62.0	W 53 - 18	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/28	Memphis at Tulane	+12.5	54.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Tue 12/17	Memphis vs West Virginia	-5.0	60.0	W 42 - 37	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)	18.1	38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)	34.3	50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8
MEM	#23 (.27)	44% (57)	35.7	46% (40)	3.27 (31)	175	41% (71)	270	4.66 (14)	#87 (.19)	40% (47)	23.8	40% (45)	40% (62)	4.05 (96)	48	0.6	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)		38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)		50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8
MEM	#23 (.27)	44% (57)		46% (40)	3.27 (31)	175	41% (71)	270	4.66 (14)	#87 (.19)	40% (47)		40% (45)	40% (62)	4.05 (96)	48	0.6	1.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	12	18.1	14.2	39.4%	3	1.6	18	352	91	261	3.2	41%	59%	38%	40%	19%	.13
MEM Defense	13	23.8	19.1	40%	4.05	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	40%	40%	20%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	12	34.3	35.8	49.4%	4.61	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	49%	14%	.32
MEM Offense	13	35.7	38.1	43.7%	4.66	0.6	23	446	175	270	5.1	46%	54%	46%	41%	12%	.27

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	12	30:15	18.2	38%	48%	7.3	61.3	1.6	0.8	4.6	1.7	1	25.2
Memphis	13	33:14	23.1	46%	52%	5.3	48	0.6	1.9	5.8	1.9	0	32.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	12	41% (123)	38% (114)	27.9	90.5	3.2	10 (122)	.04 (110)	2.82 (104)	56% (132)	11% (100)	0.98 (62)
MEM Defense	13	43% (5)	40% (45)	-	-	-	-	.09 (50)	2.64 (20)	64% (22)	12% (20)	1.13 (120)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	12	54% (104)	50% (124)	-	-	-	-	.19 (107)	3.19 (97)	72% (61)	9% (100)	0.97 (59)
MEM Offense	13	46% (99)	46% (40)	34.2	175.1	5.1	33 (12)	.22 (26)	3.27 (31)	69% (93)	7% (17)	1.06 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	12	59% (11)	40% (83)	22.8	35.6	261.1	7.3	11.5	16 (87)	10 (63)	.19 (95)	1.5 (102)	32% (84)	25% (123)	.17 (121)	7% (112)	1.9 (113)
MEM Defense	13	56% (130)	40% (62)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.28 (90)	1.7 (93)	34% (40)	30% (70)	.43 (112)	8% (13)	2.4 (134)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	12	46% (33)	49% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.47 (129)	1.6 (90)	27% (127)	34% (109)	.53 (128)	5% (101)	2.3 (128)
MEM Offense	13	54% (33)	41% (71)	23.8	36.8	270.5	7.3	11.3	25 (31)	6 (10)	.31 (42)	1.6 (47)	30% (44)	34% (40)	.47 (16)	5% (32)	2.1 (61)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -24.28 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.28 Memphis: 11.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.4 Memphis: 9.6

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 11.26 #36
Memphis's Offense Rating: 23.90 #29
Memphis's Defense Rating: 8.77 #61
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Memphis's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
Memphis's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #12
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #80

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Memphis 48
Middle Tennessee 12

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Memphis 42
Middle Tennessee 17

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 36
Middle Tennessee 19

Total Points: 55

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.1
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.1

Memphis's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Memphis	24	Middle Tennessee	7	Memphis -27	Middle Tennessee	62.0	Under
2014	09/20	Memphis	36	Middle Tennessee	17	Memphis -7.5	Memphis	0
2013	09/14	Middle Tennessee	17	Memphis	15	Middle Tennessee -4	Memphis	0
2012	09/15	Memphis	30	Middle Tennessee	48
2011	10/01	Middle Tennessee	38	Memphis	31
2010	09/18	Memphis	24	Middle Tennessee	17
2009	09/12	Middle Tennessee	31	Memphis	14
2007	10/13	Memphis	7	Middle Tennessee	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Memphis	3	2	0 Overs
Middle Tennessee	5	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 6	2 - 1	0 - 0	2 - 1

(#130) MTSU at (#36) MEM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	MEM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#130	#36
SP+SP+	#131	#31
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#37
OffenseOff	#125	#23
DefenseDef	#129	#67
Spec TeamsST	#120	#66
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#74

Middle Tennessee Notes(8/3) Will start 1-4, watch after bye on Oct 3
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)
(7/30) A D Mason team has to win with Off? Sept rough
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Memphis Notes(12/18) Dumb, poorly coached football team
(12/17) DC Jordon Hankins makes zero adjustments
(11/28) Buried Tulane. Hennigan/Rgame good, R D great
(11/18) Off balanced and torched UAB. Still alive in AAC
(11/3) Def torched by UTSA, Henigan great/Rgame awful
(10/20) Def torched by N. Tex, Off was great esp Rgame
(10/13) Def stuff S Fla, 24 rush yds, 1.3 ypc. Off enough
(9/23) Huge L @ Navy. Had 660 yds in L, All. 361 Ryds
(9/15) Big W @ FSU. Henigan good, Run Def great
(8/13) Def should improve w/ P5 portals in (starters in P5)
(8/13) QB Henigan (10K yds), WR's are G5 best & freaks
(8/3) Fav'd in every game but FSU. USF/UTSA bigs
Memphis Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MEM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#67
SuccessSuc	#105	#47
ExplosiveExp	#53	#123
PPAPPA	#107	#87
PowerPwr	#105	#61
SP+SP+	#131	#80
Pts POPPO	#128	#96
HavocHav	#113	#11

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#77	#31
Run SuccessRSuc	#114	#45
Run ExplRExp	#62	#120
PPAExp	#110	#50
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#104	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#125	#14
TackleTak	-	#100

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#33	#76
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#62
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#93
PPAExp	#95	#90
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#136	#119
F7 HavocF7	#100	#20
DB HavocDB	#112	#13

Memphis on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#23	#129
SuccessSuc	#57	#130
ExplosiveExp	#26	#71
PPAPPA	#23	#129
PowerPwr	#29	#131
SP+SP+	#12	#122
Pts POPPO	#14	#126
HavocHav	#18	#108

Memphis Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#29	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#124
Run ExplRExp	#38	#59
PPAExp	#26	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#11	-
OL YdsOLY	#31	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#49	#62
TackleTak	-	#83

Memphis Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	#71	#127
Pass ExplPExl	#47	#90
PPAExp	#42	#129
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#9	#131
F7 HavocF7	#17	#100
DB HavocDB	#32	#101

Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 68°

Rematch from Week 5
Memphis -27.0 (62.0)
Memphis won vs Middle Tennessee this year (24-7)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Middle Tennessee last year (24-7)

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	269	418	64%	3092	16	10	7.4
Roman Gagliano	4	9	44%	41	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle	109	471	4	4.3	66
Jekail Middlebrook	60	273	2	4.6	24
Terry Wilkins	54	214	1	4.0	23
Nick Vattiato	86	77	1	0.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis	53	871	6	16.4	61
Omari Kelly (Tr)	53	869	4	16.4	71
Myles Butler	30	366	3	12.2	61
Cam'Ron Lacy	20	190	0	9.5	44

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	0	0	3
Parker Hughes	69	2	0	1	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrell Raby	16	0	6
Marvae Myers-Glover	41	1	4
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	3

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Seth Henigan	309	477	65%	3502	25	6	7.3
Harris Boyd	1	1	100%	14	0	0	14.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mario Anderson (Tr)	236	1362	18	5.8	53
Brandon Thomas	57	335	9	5.9	57
Gregory DeRosiers	31	228	3	7.4	46
Seth Henigan	80	190	1	2.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roc Taylor	66	950	2	14.4	48
DeMeer Blankumsee	45	677	6	15.0	89
Kobe Drake	39	484	1	12.4	29
Anthony Landphere	33	379	4	11.5	31

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin	110	16	7	10	4
Gregory Rubin	74	6	0	3	8
Matt Hudson (Tr)	60	4	1	1	0
Elijah Herring (Tr)	59	8	4	3	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin	110	16	7	10	4
William Whitlow Jr.	24	8	5	3	1
Elijah Herring (Tr)	59	8	4	3	4
Kobee Minor (Tr)	37	7	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davion Ross	51	2	0	2	11
Gregory Rubin	74	6	0	3	8
Kobee Minor (Tr)	37	7	2	0	6