Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Wednesday, October 23rd 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Jacksonville State -20.5 (64.5) (-1600) Open: -21.0 | 63.5
Jacksonville State 42 - Middle Tennessee: 20 (Conference USA)

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

JVST coming off BYE
Our Line: Jacksonville State -23.5 (SP+ JVST -23)
Projected Score: MTSU: 18 - JVST: 41 (59)
JVST Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
MTSU Travel: 144 miles

Gamecocks (9 - 5) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (18 - 6)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (34 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
JVST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech	-11.5
Sat 9/7	Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss	+42.5	60.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/14	Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky	+10.5	53.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Middle Tennessee vs Duke	+14.5	51.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Memphis	+27.0	62.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech	+5.0	48.0	L 21 - 48	O	N
Tue 10/15	Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State	-8.5	50.0	W 14 - 5	U	Y
Wed 10/23	Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	+20.5	64.5	L 20 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/2	Middle Tennessee at UTEP	+2.0	48.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Middle Tennessee vs Liberty	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State	-3.5	54.0	L 21 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/30	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	+9.5	50.5	L 24 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina	-3.5	54.5	L 27 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/7	Jacksonville State at Louisville	+27.5	56.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan	-2.5	53.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/21	Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss	-6.0	59.5	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/4	Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State	-17.5	49.5	W 63 - 24	O	Y
Wed 10/9	Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State	-21.0	58.5	W 54 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23	Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee	-20.5	64.5	W 42 - 20	U	Y
Wed 10/30	Jacksonville State at Liberty	+2.5	64.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech	-10.0	55.5	W 44 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/16	Jacksonville State vs Florida International	-12.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston	-5.5	57.5	W 21 - 11	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky	-0.5	62.5	L 17 - 19	U	N
Fri 12/6	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	-4.5	58.5	W 52 - 12	O	Y
Fri 12/20	Jacksonville State vs Ohio	+6.5	57.5	L 27 - 30	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#95 (.14)	39% (104)	22.4	41% (93)	3.08 (74)	126	39% (94)	266	3.2 (115)	#60 (.17)	43% (81)	30.9	45% (88)	42% (78)	4.13 (100)	56.3	1.8	1.3
JVST	#103 (.13)	42% (65)	28.1	46% (41)	3.08 (73)	237	38% (101)	171	3.77 (79)	#10 (.07)	36% (15)	25.2	33% (6)	39% (39)	3.33 (24)	43.4	1.6	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
JVST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	20.8	39.4%	3.2	1.8	19	391	126	266	3.9	42%	57%	41%	39%	17%	.14
JVST Defense	13	25.2	23	35.9%	3.33	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	33%	39%	18%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	29.3	42.9%	4.13	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	45%	42%	17%	.17
JVST Offense	13	28.1	34	42.3%	3.77	1.6	22	408	237	171	4.8	61%	38%	46%	38%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	12	28:32	19.3	40%	45%	6.8	56.3	1.8	1.3	5.8	1.9	0	28.8
Jacksonville State	13	26:43	22.2	38%	52%	4.8	43.4	1.6	1.9	7	2.9	1	30.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	12	42% (117)	41% (93)	32	125.5	3.9	13 (108)	.1 (93)	3.08 (74)	79% (22)	11% (95)	1.08 (28)
JVST Defense	13	50% (66)	33% (6)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (2)	2.45 (4)	71% (57)	12% (28)	0.85 (12)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	12	47% (30)	45% (88)	-	-	-	-	.06 (24)	2.97 (43)	71% (57)	10% (65)	0.85 (13)
JVST Offense	13	61% (8)	46% (41)	49.8	236.7	4.8	35 (5)	.18 (51)	3.08 (73)	72% (82)	9% (54)	0.99 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	12	57% (18)	39% (94)	24.6	36.5	265.6	7.3	10.8	23 (51)	13 (97)	.24 (84)	1.6 (59)	34% (101)	26% (110)	.24 (94)	6% (70)	2.3 (6)
JVST Defense	13	48% (53)	39% (39)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.27 (69)	1.7 (106)	35% (30)	25% (12)	.18 (10)	6% (68)	2 (63)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	12	52% (104)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (96)	1.5 (47)	30% (104)	32% (90)	.35 (88)	7% (31)	2.2 (100)
JVST Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (101)	14	26.9	171	6.4	12.2	12 (113)	12 (85)	.12 (119)	1.6 (75)	31% (47)	30% (71)	.15 (119)	6% (90)	2 (90)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -24.28 #130
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 15.21 #105
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 21.66 #131
2024 Talent Rating: 193.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.4 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #131
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #122

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.28 Jacksonville State: -0.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -24.4 Jacksonville State: -1.0

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -0.895 #85
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 24.74 #21
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 10.35 #76
2024 Talent Rating: 149.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Jacksonville State's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Jacksonville State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #57
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Jacksonville State 41
Middle Tennessee 18

Projected Total Points: 59

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

Jacksonville State's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/29	Middle Tennessee	21	Jacksonville State	24	Jacksonville State -4.5	Middle Tennessee	54.0	Under
2024	10/23	Jacksonville State	42	Middle Tennessee	20	Jacksonville State -20.5	Jacksonville State	64.5	Under
2023	10/04	Middle Tennessee	30	Jacksonville State	45	Middle Tennessee -2.5	Jacksonville State	52.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Jacksonville State	3	2	1 Overs
Middle Tennessee	0	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#130) MTSU at (#85) JVST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	JVST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#130	#85
SP+SP+	#131	#73
Perf GradeGrade	#132	#68
OffenseOff	#125	#33
DefenseDef	#129	#84
Spec TeamsST	#120	#132
TalentTal	#119	#127
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#53

Middle Tennessee Notes(8/3) Will start 1-4, watch after bye on Oct 3
(10/22) Def stop rate 49% (#120) into week 9
(10/16) #3 Worst Rgame/OL in CFB. Ken St. dominated
(10/15) Given up 19 sacks, most in CUSA through week 8
(10/10) Killed by L.Tech, Def shreaded, Rgame awful
(10/4) Sched been brutal but Run Off/Def near bottom
(9/5) Lost best OL C Pierce (leg) for the season
(8/3) Def will be near last vs run, DL just poor
(7/30) QB Vattiato good dual threat has WR/TE weapons
(7/30) OL a huge ? but RB room is good/deep.
(7/30) Def portaled out, will take lumps early (often?)
(7/30) A D Mason team has to win with Off? Sept rough
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Jacksonville State Notes(12/21) Hired HC C Kelly (Aub Co-DC, 1st time HC)
(12/2) Rgame good, Pass bad, 2-13 on 3rd, QB Huff hurt
(12/2) L to WKU, held to 13 1st downs (season low)
(12/1) QB Huff inj (ankle) in finale. ? in CUSA title gm
(11/25) Rgame mauled Sam H, clinched CUSA title game
(11/18) Fight w/ FIU? Def awful esp Run, Rgame great
(11/1) 4-0, avg 28 ppg margin in Oct, although lowering
(10/30) RB Steward 232 yds, 8.6, 4 TD in Liberty upset
(10/30) Won five straight after bad 0-3 start to '24
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/4) Killed S Miss. Off improving, QB Huff dual threat
(9/23) Rough start, Def awful. QB Huff is good though
Jacksonville State Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	JVST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#84
SuccessSuc	#104	#15
ExplosiveExp	#14	#80
PPAPPA	#95	#10
PowerPwr	#105	#76
SP+SP+	#131	#81
Pts POPPO	#115	#24
HavocHav	#89	#37

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#77	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#6
Run ExplRExp	#28	#12
PPAExp	#93	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#4
Stuff RateStuff	#87	#13
TackleTak	-	#24

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#33	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#39
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#106
PPAExp	#84	#69
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#136	#121
F7 HavocF7	#95	#28
DB HavocDB	#70	#68

Jacksonville State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#33	#129
SuccessSuc	#65	#81
ExplosiveExp	#117	#23
PPAPPA	#103	#60
PowerPwr	#21	#131
SP+SP+	#57	#122
Pts POPPO	#79	#100
HavocHav	#66	#49

Jacksonville State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#11	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	#88
Run ExplRExp	#73	#13
PPAExp	#51	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#73	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#31
TackleTak	-	#83

Jacksonville State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
CategoryCat	JVST Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#53	#128
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#47
PPAExp	#119	#96
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#93	#131
F7 HavocF7	#54	#65
DB HavocDB	#90	#31

Program Comparison
JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in JSU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Jacksonville State -20.5 (64.5)
Jacksonville State won vs Middle Tennessee this year (42-20)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee last year (24-21)
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee in 2024 (42-20)
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (45-30)

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	269	418	64%	3092	16	10	7.4
Roman Gagliano	4	9	44%	41	0	0	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle	109	471	4	4.3	66
Jekail Middlebrook	60	273	2	4.6	24
Terry Wilkins	54	214	1	4.0	23
Nick Vattiato	86	77	1	0.9	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis	53	871	6	16.4	61
Omari Kelly (Tr)	53	869	4	16.4	71
Myles Butler	30	366	3	12.2	61
Cam'Ron Lacy	20	190	0	9.5	44

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	0	0	3
Parker Hughes	69	2	0	1	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	37	4	3	5	0
Anthony Bynum	60	7	3	1	1
Jalen Davis	52	5	2	0	1
Aidan Butts	10	2	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Tyrell Raby	16	0	6
Marvae Myers-Glover	41	1	4
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	3

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Huff (Tr)	178	293	61%	2543	14	7	8.7
Logan Smothers	11	19	58%	123	0	0	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Stewart	279	1636	25	5.9	75
Tyler Huff (Tr)	227	1344	15	5.9	51
Logan Smothers	22	175	3	8.0	72
Andrew Paul (Tr)	38	166	4	4.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Vaughn	49	804	5	16.4	75
Michael Pettway	25	454	3	18.2	92
Brock Rechsteiner	16	241	2	15.1	85
Tre Stewart	17	233	1	13.7	50

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Luke Olson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fred Perry	109	10	3	2	2
Antonio Carter II (Tr)	103	3	0	1	3
Reginald Hughes (Tr)	83	10	4	6	0
Laletia Hale	80	8	4	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reginald Hughes (Tr)	83	10	4	6	0
Laletia Hale	80	8	4	2	3
Jaylen Swain	44	11	4	2	0
Fred Perry	109	10	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jabari Mack	32	2	11
Zechariah Poyser	77	3	8
Geimere Latimer	46	0	5