UCF at TCU - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
TCU -1.5 (61.5) (-148) Open: -3.0
UCF 35 - TCU: 34 (Big 12)

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 91.4° (54% Hum)
TCU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: TCU -12 (SP+ TCU -8)
Projected Score: UCF: 23 - TCU: 35 (58)
TCU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
UCF Travel: 1001 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
TCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

TCU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	TCU at Stanford	-8.0	58.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/7	TCU vs Long Island University	-45.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/14	TCU vs UCF	-1.5	61.5	L 34 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/21	TCU at SMU	-1.0	58.5	L 42 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/28	TCU vs Kansas	+1.5	58.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Fri 10/4	TCU vs Houston	-16.5	52.0	L 19 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	TCU at Utah	+3.0	52.0	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	TCU vs Texas Tech	-5.0	66.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	TCU at Baylor	+2.5	64.0	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/9	TCU vs Oklahoma State	-10.5	68.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	TCU vs Arizona	-10.5	60.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	TCU at Cincinnati	-2.5	58.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 12/28	TCU vs Louisiana	-9.5	61.0	W 34 - 3	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	30.4	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	26.9	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)	33.5	45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)	24.6	46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)		45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)		46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	12	30.4	27	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21
TCU Defense	13	24.6	23.3	41.5%	3.82	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	46%	36%	14%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	12	26.9	32.4	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16
TCU Offense	13	33.5	36.7	47.1%	4.46	1.6	21	400	106	293	3.9	42%	58%	45%	49%	13%	.3

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6
TCU	13	26:11	21	44%	80%	5.2	49.7	1.6	1.1	4.5	1.8	1	31.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)
TCU Defense	13	53% (95)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.22 (118)	3.26 (104)	89% (134)	9% (105)	1.02 (87)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)
TCU Offense	13	42% (119)	45% (53)	27.6	106.4	3.9	26 (36)	.08 (95)	2.95 (85)	73% (70)	8% (36)	0.94 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)
TCU Defense	13	47% (41)	36% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.18 (40)	1.5 (57)	34% (42)	27% (19)	.19 (22)	6% (81)	1.8 (26)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)
TCU Offense	13	58% (19)	49% (9)	23.5	34.9	293.2	8.4	12.5	25 (31)	10 (63)	.47 (5)	1.6 (75)	31% (57)	33% (47)	.4 (39)	5% (38)	2.1 (55)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.98 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 0.98 TCU: 14.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 2.8 TCU: 10.8

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.1 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.4

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 35
UCF 23

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 31
UCF 21

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
TCU 32
UCF 27

Total Points: 59

TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	TCU	34	UCF	35	TCU -1.5	UCF	61.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
TCU	0	0	1 Overs
UCF	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#58) UCF at (#21) TCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	TCU
Power RatePwr	#58	#21
SP+SP+	#61	#25
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#32
OffenseOff	#52	#31
DefenseDef	#47	#55
Spec TeamsST	#117	#14
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#38

UCF Notes(12/17) Hired Alex Grinch as DC? Why?
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost
(10/6) B2B L's (UF). Rgame shut down, Pass O/D awful
UCF Injury Report

TCU Notes(11/25) 2 str W's, Rgame good, Hoover good vs TCU
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
(7/30) Briles 2nd yr at OC, New DC Avalos (Boise HC)
TCU Injury Report

UCF on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	TCU Def
Perf GradePerf	#52	#55
SuccessSuc	#28	#67
ExplosiveExp	#73	#52
PPAPPA	#58	#82
PowerPwr	#64	#53
SP+SP+	#55	#38
Pts POPPO	#86	#72
HavocHav	#51	#102

UCF Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#102
Run ExplRExp	#11	#87
PPAExp	#7	#118
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#87
TackleTak	-	#22

UCF Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#14
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#57
PPAExp	#123	#40
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#17	#124
F7 HavocF7	#66	#105
DB HavocDB	#48	#81

TCU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#31	#47
SuccessSuc	#20	#45
ExplosiveExp	#45	#95
PPAPPA	#18	#63
PowerPwr	#24	#67
SP+SP+	#19	#61
Pts POPPO	#20	#118
HavocHav	#28	#64

TCU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#97	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#12
Run ExplRExp	#85	#90
PPAExp	#95	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	#85	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#17
TackleTak	-	#55

TCU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#9	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#64
PPAExp	#5	#81
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#51	#65
F7 HavocF7	#36	#28
DB HavocDB	#38	#118

Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 91°

Rematch from Week 3
TCU -1.5 (61.5)
UCF won at TCU this year (35-34)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat TCU last year (35-34)

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Addison Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	313	471	67%	3949	27	11	8.4
Ken Seals (Tr)	10	13	77%	97	1	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Cook	119	460	9	3.9	19
Savion Williams	51	322	6	6.3	35
Jeremy Payne	54	239	3	4.4	32
Trent Battle	44	186	2	4.2	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Bech	62	1034	9	16.7	52
Eric McAlister (Tr)	39	762	5	19.5	84
John Paul Richardson	57	733	2	12.9	38
Savion Williams	60	611	6	10.2	75

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Hodges	89	5	1	2	0
Namdi Obiazor	81	7	3	2	1
Jamel Johnson	72	2	0	0	3
Bud Clark	68	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devean Deal (Tr)	46	10	6	3	1
Cooper McDonald (Tr)	25	5	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)	38	9	3	5	1
Zachary Chapman	24	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Lamareon James (Tr)	34	0	0	12
Abraham Camara	55	6	1	6
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)	12	0	0	4