UCF at TCU - 2024 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
TCU -1.5 (61.5) (-148)  Open: -3.0
UCF 35 - TCU: 34  (Big 12)

 
Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TCU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: TCU -12   (SP+ TCU -8)

Projected Score: UCF: 24 - TCU: 36 (60)
TCU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
UCF Travel: 1001 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
UCF's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 UCF vs New Hampshire-38.558.5W 57 - 3OY
Sat 9/7 UCF vs Sam Houston-21.553.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 9/14 UCF at TCU+1.561.5W 35 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 UCF vs Colorado-12.560.5L 21 - 48ON
Sat 10/5 UCF at Florida-1.062.0L 13 - 24UN
Sat 10/12 UCF vs Cincinnati-2.058.0L 13 - 19UN
Sat 10/19 UCF at Iowa State+13.049.5L 35 - 38OY
Sat 10/26 UCF vs BYU-2.553.5L 24 - 37ON
Sat 11/2 UCF vs Arizona-6.555.0W 56 - 12OY
Sat 11/9 UCF at Arizona State+2.555.5L 31 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 UCF at West Virginia-3.060.0L 21 - 31UN
Fri 11/29 UCF vs Utah-9.545.5L 14 - 28UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
TCU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 TCU at Stanford-8.058.5W 34 - 27ON
Sat 9/7 TCU vs Long Island University-45.556.5W 45 - 0UN
Sat 9/14 TCU vs UCF-1.561.5L 34 - 35ON
Sat 9/21 TCU at SMU-1.058.5L 42 - 66ON
Sat 9/28 TCU vs Kansas+1.558.5W 38 - 27OY
Fri 10/4 TCU vs Houston-16.552.0L 19 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 TCU at Utah+3.052.0W 13 - 7UY
Sat 10/26 TCU vs Texas Tech-5.066.0W 35 - 34ON
Sat 11/2 TCU at Baylor+2.564.0L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/9 TCU vs Oklahoma State-10.568.5W 38 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 TCU vs Arizona-10.560.0W 49 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 TCU at Cincinnati-2.558.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 12/28 TCU vs Louisiana-9.561.0W 34 - 3UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)30.452% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)26.937% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)33.545% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)24.646% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1230.42746.1%3.751.6244482482005.858%41%52%38%15%.21
TCU Defense1324.623.341.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1226.932.439.9%4.370.9 - - - - - 50%50%37%42%16%.16
TCU Offense1333.536.747.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1228:1923.642%54%6.554.41.60.96.91.8130.6
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1258% (16)52% (8)43248.15.833 (12).31 (7)3.62 (2)72% (80)10% (66)1.13 (11)
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1250% (54)37% (12) - - - - .07 (39)2.57 (13)79% (106)12% (28)1.03 (90)
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1241% (121)38% (103)15.125.8199.77.713.214 (108)11 (72).1 (123)1.6 (76)29% (33)33% (53).16 (122)5% (48)1.8 (126)
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1250% (82)42% (84) - - - - - - 9 (76).26 (81)1.6 (64)36% (16)30% (67).38 (99)5% (118)2.2 (117)
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.98 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 0.98   TCU: 14.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 2.8   TCU: 10.8




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.1 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.4

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 36
UCF 24


Total Points: 60

TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14TCU34UCF35UCFTCU -1.5UCF61.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU001 Overs
UCF110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#58) UCF Info
Power Rating: 0.98 #58
Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.37 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

UCF has won 2 straight
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

UCF Notes
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost

UCF Highlights
UCF has Really Good Running Game (#68)
UCF offense is efficent (#90)
UCF has a top Offensive Line (#111)
UCF does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#108)

UCF has a good run defense (#70)
UCF Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#34)
UCF Defensive Line is very good (#59)
UCF Front 7 is disruptive (#12)

UCF Deficiencies
UCF pass game is really bad (#68)
UCF has a bad red zone defense (#18)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTCUUCF
OverallOver#25#38
OffenseOff#27#45
DefenseDef#40#35
Special TeamsST#13#94
PassingPass#15#95
RushingRush#68#13
Run BlockRBLK#62#30
Pass BlockPBLK#48#17
Route RunningWR Rt#8#74
TacklingTkl#20#50
Run DefenseR Def#53#30
Pass Rush DefPRush#104#57
Coverage DefCov#12#54

Rematch from Week 3
TCU -1.5 (61.5)
UCF won at TCU this year (35-34)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat TCU last year (35-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UCF | TCU
Depth Chart: UCF | TCU
Rosters: UCF | TCU
(#21) TCU Info
Power Rating: 14.1 #21
Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Great Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.82 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

TCU has won 2 straight
TCU has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

TCU Notes
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)

TCU Highlights
TCU offense is efficent (#9)
TCU offense is good in red zone (#29)
TCU has a good pass defense (#104)

TCU Deficiencies
TCU has a bad TO Margin (#28)
TCU Fumbles a Lot (#1)
TCU Can Not Run the Ball (#97)
TCU has a bad defensive line (#106)


  
UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Rizk7311862%915527.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)6410859%1012749.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
RJ Harvey2321577226.880
Jacurri Brown (Tr)5340147.667
Myles Montgomery (Tr)5129335.725
Peny Boone (Tr)3420826.159
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kobe Hudson47770416.453
Randy Pittman32416213.048
Jacoby Jones (Tr)22327214.940
RJ Harvey20267313.475

View UCF's Full Roster
UCF's DC Addison Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Barr723022
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)686032
Quadric Bullard613112
Deshawn Pace (Tr)614001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)5310611
Malachi Lawrence156541
Daylan Dotson (Tr)3110451
Ricky Barber345380
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antoine Jackson131003
Braeden Marshall223003
Ethan Barr723022

TCU's OC Kendal Briles
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover31347167%394927118.4
Ken Seals (Tr)101377%97107.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Cook11946093.919
Savion Williams5132266.335
Jeremy Payne5423934.432
Trent Battle4418624.224
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jack Bech621034916.752
Eric McAlister (Tr)39762519.584
John Paul Richardson57733212.938
Savion Williams60611610.275

View TCU's Full Roster
TCU's DC Andy Avalos
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Johnny Hodges895120
Namdi Obiazor817321
Jamel Johnson722003
Bud Clark680003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devean Deal (Tr)4610631
Cooper McDonald (Tr)255321
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)389351
Zachary Chapman243310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lamareon James (Tr)3400012
Abraham Camara556016
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)120004