TCU at Stanford - 2024 Matchup Preview

Friday, August 30th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
TCU -8.0 (58.5) (-300) Open: -8.5 | 58.5
TCU 34 - Stanford: 27

Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.9 MPH
Our Line: TCU -15.5 (SP+ TCU -19)
Projected Score: TCU: 38 - STAN: 23 (61)
TCU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
TCU Travel: 1435 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Cardinal (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Troy Taylor (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 23 - 34 (25 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TCU Players
STAN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

TCU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	TCU at Stanford	-8.0	58.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/7	TCU vs Long Island University	-45.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/14	TCU vs UCF	-1.5	61.5	L 34 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/21	TCU at SMU	-1.0	58.5	L 42 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/28	TCU vs Kansas	+1.5	58.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Fri 10/4	TCU vs Houston	-16.5	52.0	L 19 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	TCU at Utah	+3.0	52.0	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	TCU vs Texas Tech	-5.0	66.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	TCU at Baylor	+2.5	64.0	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/9	TCU vs Oklahoma State	-10.5	68.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	TCU vs Arizona	-10.5	60.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	TCU at Cincinnati	-2.5	58.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 12/28	TCU vs Louisiana	-9.5	61.0	W 34 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Stanford's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Stanford vs TCU	+8.0	58.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Stanford vs Cal Poly	-33.5	59.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/20	Stanford at Syracuse	+9.5	56.5	W 26 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Stanford at Clemson	+24.0	58.0	L 14 - 40	U	N
Sat 10/5	Stanford vs Virginia Tech	+9.5	50.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/12	Stanford at Notre Dame	+22.5	45.5	L 7 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/19	Stanford vs SMU	+16.5	52.5	L 10 - 40	U	N
Sat 10/26	Stanford vs Wake Forest	+3.0	53.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Stanford at NC State	+10.0	46.5	L 28 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Stanford vs Louisville	+21.0	57.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Stanford at California	+15.0	53.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Stanford at San José State	+2.5	54.5	L 31 - 34	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)	33.5	45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)	24.6	46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1
STAN	#114 (.1)	40% (101)	22.8	41% (95)	2.72 (116)	134	39% (98)	191	3.67 (92)	#120 (.27)	47% (119)	33.7	45% (92)	48% (124)	4.53 (124)	49	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)		45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)		46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1
STAN	#114 (.1)	40% (101)		41% (95)	2.72 (116)	134	39% (98)	191	3.67 (92)	#120 (.27)	47% (119)		45% (92)	48% (124)	4.53 (124)	49	1.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Offense	13	33.5	28.6	47.1%	4.46	1.6	21	400	106	293	3.9	42%	58%	45%	49%	13%	.3
STAN Defense	12	33.7	29	46.6%	4.53	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	45%	48%	14%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Defense	13	24.6	30	41.5%	3.82	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	46%	36%	14%	.19
STAN Offense	12	22.8	24.5	40.1%	3.67	1.8	19	325	134	191	3.7	50%	50%	41%	39%	22%	.1

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
TCU	13	26:11	21	44%	80%	5.2	49.7	1.6	1.1	4.5	1.8	1	31.7
Stanford	12	31:41	18.5	35%	56%	5.4	49	1.8	1.3	5.3	2.1	2	28.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Offense	13	42% (119)	45% (53)	27.6	106.4	3.9	26 (36)	.08 (95)	2.95 (85)	73% (70)	8% (36)	0.94 (85)
STAN Defense	12	43% (4)	45% (92)	-	-	-	-	.11 (62)	2.92 (53)	68% (39)	10% (58)	0.99 (70)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Defense	13	53% (95)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.22 (118)	3.26 (104)	89% (134)	9% (105)	1.02 (87)
STAN Offense	12	50% (71)	41% (95)	36.3	133.8	3.7	11 (116)	.08 (97)	2.72 (116)	66% (111)	15% (131)	1.01 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Offense	13	58% (19)	49% (9)	23.5	34.9	293.2	8.4	12.5	25 (31)	10 (63)	.47 (5)	1.6 (75)	31% (57)	33% (47)	.4 (39)	5% (38)	2.1 (55)
STAN Defense	12	57% (131)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.4 (125)	1.6 (69)	30% (96)	34% (113)	.33 (85)	4% (129)	2 (51)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Defense	13	47% (41)	36% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.18 (40)	1.5 (57)	34% (42)	27% (19)	.19 (22)	6% (81)	1.8 (26)
STAN Offense	12	50% (64)	39% (98)	18.7	30.8	191.3	6.2	10.3	18 (68)	17 (127)	.13 (111)	1.5 (120)	32% (82)	26% (116)	.22 (106)	7% (102)	2.1 (29)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 12.40 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 12.40 Stanford: -3.79

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 10.8 Stanford: -8.2

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -3.79 #79
Stanford's Offense Rating: 18.63 #80
Stanford's Defense Rating: 15.49 #112
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
Stanford's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Stanford's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #112

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 38
Stanford 23

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 38
Stanford 31

Total Points: 69

Based on Entire Season
TCU 31
Stanford 26

Total Points: 57

Stanford Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.5
Defense: 33.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Stanford's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/30	Stanford	27	TCU	34	TCU -8.0	Stanford	58.5	Over
2017	12/28	TCU	39	Stanford	37	TCU -3	Stanford	49.5	Over
2008	09/13	TCU	31	Stanford	14
2007	10/13	Stanford	36	TCU	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Stanford	0	2	2 Overs
TCU	4	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#21) TCU at (#79) STAN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TCU	STAN
Power RatePwr	#21	#79
SP+SP+	#25	#101
Perf GradeGrade	#32	#112
OffenseOff	#31	#121
DefenseDef	#55	#106
Spec TeamsST	#14	#6
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#35

TCU Notes(11/25) 2 str W's, Rgame good, Hoover good vs TCU
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
(7/30) Briles 2nd yr at OC, New DC Avalos (Boise HC)
TCU Injury Report

Stanford Notes(11/29) Def torched by SJSU, Daniels 3 Int, Rgame meh
(11/29) Taylor 6-18 in 2 years, but is Stan serious?
(11/23) Daniels awful vs Cal, Rgame bad. Rough L
(11/18) At this pt why is 4 star QB Brown not playing?
(11/18) QB Daniels torched L'ville, Rgame awful, D held on
(11/18) Mosley V emerging top WR. 13/168/3 TD vs L'ville
(10/21) QB Daniels inj in SMU game, looks out for Wake
(10/20) Lost 11 straight at home vs FBS into Wake game
(10/12) 3 straight routs, Off v limited, Def wilts eventually
(9/23) QB Daniels limited but mobile QB. Rgame better?
(8/31) Def looked improved vs TCU, opportunistic
(8/19) WR Ayomanor who abused T. Hunter back (1K yds)
Stanford Injury Report

TCU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	STAN Def
Perf GradePerf	#31	#106
SuccessSuc	#20	#119
ExplosiveExp	#45	#103
PPAPPA	#18	#120
PowerPwr	#24	#112
SP+SP+	#19	#112
Pts POPPO	#20	#124
HavocHav	#28	#94

TCU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	STAN Def
Run GameRun	#97	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#92
Run ExplRExp	#85	#70
PPAExp	#95	#62
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	#85	#53
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#29
TackleTak	-	#98

TCU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	STAN Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#117
Pass SuccessPSuc	#9	#124
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#69
PPAExp	#5	#125
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#51	#53
F7 HavocF7	#36	#58
DB HavocDB	#38	#129

Stanford on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	STAN Off	TCU Def
Perf GradePerf	#121	#55
SuccessSuc	#101	#67
ExplosiveExp	#98	#52
PPAPPA	#114	#82
PowerPwr	#80	#53
SP+SP+	#90	#38
Pts POPPO	#92	#72
HavocHav	#132	#102

Stanford Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	STAN Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#127	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	#95	#102
Run ExplRExp	#52	#87
PPAExp	#97	#118
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	#116	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#127	#87
TackleTak	-	#22

Stanford Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	STAN Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#119	#14
Pass SuccessPSuc	#98	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#120	#57
PPAExp	#111	#40
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#94	#124
F7 HavocF7	#131	#105
DB HavocDB	#102	#81

Program Comparison
STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stanford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 73° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 1
TCU 8.0 (58.5)
TCU won at Stanford this year (34-27)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Stanford last year (34-27)

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	313	471	67%	3949	27	11	8.4
Ken Seals (Tr)	10	13	77%	97	1	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Cook	119	460	9	3.9	19
Savion Williams	51	322	6	6.3	35
Jeremy Payne	54	239	3	4.4	32
Trent Battle	44	186	2	4.2	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Bech	62	1034	9	16.7	52
Eric McAlister (Tr)	39	762	5	19.5	84
John Paul Richardson	57	733	2	12.9	38
Savion Williams	60	611	6	10.2	75

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Hodges	89	5	1	2	0
Namdi Obiazor	81	7	3	2	1
Jamel Johnson	72	2	0	0	3
Bud Clark	68	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devean Deal (Tr)	46	10	6	3	1
Cooper McDonald (Tr)	25	5	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)	38	9	3	5	1
Zachary Chapman	24	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Lamareon James (Tr)	34	0	0	12
Abraham Camara	55	6	1	6
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)	12	0	0	4

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ashton Daniels	170	271	63%	1700	10	12	6.3
Elijah Brown	28	48	58%	274	2	3	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Daniels	148	669	3	4.5	67
Micah Ford	76	309	0	4.1	26
Chris Davis Jr.	54	288	0	5.3	47
Cole Tabb	27	130	0	4.8	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elic Ayomanor	63	831	6	13.2	60
Emmett Mosley V	48	525	6	10.9	62
Sam Roush	40	334	2	8.4	28
Ismael Cisse	26	241	2	9.3	25

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gaethan Bernadel	86	6	1	2	1
Scotty Edwards	80	2	0	0	2
Tristan Sinclair	77	7	2	5	1
Mitch Leigber	54	4	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Bailey	31	8	6	8	0
Tevarua Tafiti	41	7	4	3	0
Tobin Phillips	16	5	4	1	0
Zach Buckey	11	6	3	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Collin Wright	45	3	5
Aaron Morris	32	0	4
Zahran Manley	12	0	3