Houston at TCU - 2024 Matchup Preview

Friday, October 4th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
TCU -16.5 (52.0) (-800) Open: -17.0
Houston 30 - TCU: 19 (Big 12)

Cougars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (31 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TCU is playing their 6th straight game
HOU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: TCU -21 (SP+ TCU -19)
Projected Score: HOU: 16 - TCU: 37 (53)
TCU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
HOU Travel: 238 miles

Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HOU Players
TCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Houston's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Houston vs UNLV	-3.0	56.0	L 7 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/7	Houston at Oklahoma	+27.5	48.5	L 12 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Houston vs Rice	-3.5	43.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Houston at Cincinnati	+4.0	47.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/28	Houston vs Iowa State	+16.0	43.0	L 0 - 20	U	N
Fri 10/4	Houston at TCU	+16.5	52.0	W 30 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Houston vs Kansas	+4.5	45.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/26	Houston vs Utah	+4.5	36.0	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Houston vs Kansas State	+12.5	46.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Houston at Arizona	+1.0	46.5	L 3 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	Houston vs Baylor	+7.0	51.0	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Houston at BYU	+9.5	39.5	L 18 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

TCU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	TCU at Stanford	-8.0	58.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/7	TCU vs Long Island University	-45.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/14	TCU vs UCF	-1.5	61.5	L 34 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/21	TCU at SMU	-1.0	58.5	L 42 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/28	TCU vs Kansas	+1.5	58.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Fri 10/4	TCU vs Houston	-16.5	52.0	L 19 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	TCU at Utah	+3.0	52.0	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	TCU vs Texas Tech	-5.0	66.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	TCU at Baylor	+2.5	64.0	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/9	TCU vs Oklahoma State	-10.5	68.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	TCU vs Arizona	-10.5	60.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	TCU at Cincinnati	-2.5	58.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 12/28	TCU vs Louisiana	-9.5	61.0	W 34 - 3	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#104 (.13)	40% (97)	29.1	39% (110)	2.97 (96)	119	41% (75)	241	3.44 (100)	#114 (.26)	47% (126)	22.8	47% (104)	48% (130)	4.26 (111)	49.2	1.3	1.2
TCU	#25 (.28)	47% (16)	30.7	49% (18)	3.35 (23)	155	47% (20)	312	3.91 (69)	#96 (.23)	44% (89)	25.3	43% (70)	45% (112)	3.91 (78)	53.6	1.6	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Offense	12	29.1	31	39.7%	3.44	1.3	19	360	119	241	4	42%	56%	39%	41%	14%	.13
TCU Defense	12	25.3	24.2	43.6%	3.91	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	43%	45%	13%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Defense	12	22.8	19.5	46.7%	4.26	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	47%	48%	13%	.26
TCU Offense	12	30.7	36	47.4%	3.91	1.6	25	467	155	312	4.6	42%	57%	49%	47%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Houston	12	27:56	19.2	36%	26%	5.7	49.2	1.3	1.2	5	1.9	3	28.2
TCU	12	27:21	25	46%	50%	6.2	53.6	1.6	1	5	1.8	2	29.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Offense	12	42% (115)	39% (110)	29.9	118.8	4	10 (124)	.06 (116)	2.97 (96)	59% (129)	9% (57)	0.98 (82)
TCU Defense	12	51% (76)	43% (70)	-	-	-	-	.16 (81)	3.16 (82)	78% (100)	8% (117)	1 (72)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Defense	12	51% (89)	47% (104)	-	-	-	-	.23 (111)	3.24 (101)	75% (79)	8% (110)	1.05 (93)
TCU Offense	12	42% (119)	49% (18)	33.8	154.5	4.6	19 (69)	.22 (29)	3.35 (23)	79% (26)	7% (6)	0.96 (93)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Offense	12	56% (24)	41% (75)	21.7	33.9	241.4	7.1	11.1	24 (41)	13 (97)	.25 (77)	1.5 (86)	34% (94)	25% (111)	.18 (107)	5% (20)	2.1 (56)
TCU Defense	12	49% (59)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.35 (106)	1.6 (86)	31% (95)	35% (122)	.37 (98)	5% (119)	2 (34)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Defense	12	47% (40)	48% (130)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.35 (108)	1.5 (27)	30% (98)	38% (128)	.47 (125)	4% (124)	2.1 (91)
TCU Offense	12	57% (16)	47% (20)	26.6	41.9	312.2	7.5	11.7	27 (25)	15 (116)	.4 (27)	1.6 (63)	31% (54)	42% (4)	.61 (6)	7% (94)	2 (73)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: -5.97 #86
Houston's Offense Rating: 9.85 #129
Houston's Defense Rating: 8.04 #55
2024 Talent Rating: 307.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #62
Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #118
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: -5.97 TCU: 14.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: -8.2 TCU: 10.8

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.1 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 408.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 37
Houston 16

Projected Total Points: 53

TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Houston	14	TCU	17	TCU -1.5	TCU	55.5	Under
2024	10/04	TCU	19	Houston	30	TCU -16.5	Houston	52.0	Under
2023	09/16	Houston	13	TCU	36	TCU -7.5	TCU	64.0	Under
2007	12/28	Houston	13	TCU	20
2004	10/23	TCU	34	Houston	27
2003	10/25	Houston	55	TCU	62
2002	10/05	TCU	34	Houston	17
2001	09/29	Houston	17	TCU	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
TCU	7	2	0 Overs
Houston	1	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 6	0 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 2	3 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0

(#86) HOU at (#21) TCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HOU	TCU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#86	#21
SP+SP+	#101	#25
Perf GradeGrade	#125	#32
OffenseOff	#128	#31
DefenseDef	#99	#55
Spec TeamsST	#109	#14
TalentTal	#72	#33
Blue ChipsBC%	#62	#38

Houston Notes(12/27) Signed QB Weigman (A&M) & more
(12/14) Hired DC A. Armstrong (UF DC 23-24)
(12/5) Fired OC Kevin Barbay
(12/5) Hired OC Slade Nagle, ST/TE coach @ LSU
(11/25) 4 TOs, 3-10 on 3rd, 239 total yards in bad Bay L
(11/25) Def played great vs Bay, forced 3 INTs, Off sucks
(11/18) Regress vs Zona, Off abysmal, 3 TOs, Def OK
(11/2) Huge W over K St. Chris 11-11, Run D great
(10/27) 13 Passes, 230 ryds (4.7 ypc) in Utah upset. Big W
(10/18) QB Criss replacing Smith (should be an upgrade)
(9/22) Off abysmal. Can't run/pass. Def can't overcome
(9/8) Close L @ OU. Run: D great, O bad, QB Smith good.
Houston Injury Report

TCU Notes(11/25) 2 str W's, Rgame good, Hoover good vs TCU
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
(7/30) Briles 2nd yr at OC, New DC Avalos (Boise HC)
TCU Injury Report

Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	TCU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#128	#55
SuccessSuc	#97	#89
ExplosiveExp	#60	#89
PPAPPA	#104	#96
PowerPwr	#129	#53
SP+SP+	#118	#38
Pts POPPO	#100	#78
HavocHav	#41	#123

Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#133	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	#110	#70
Run ExplRExp	#82	#72
PPAExp	#116	#81
Run BlockR Blk	#101	-
OL YdsOLY	#96	#82
Stuff RateStuff	#116	#80
TackleTak	-	#22

Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#128	#14
Pass SuccessPSuc	#75	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#86	#86
PPAExp	#77	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#42	#124
F7 HavocF7	#57	#117
DB HavocDB	#20	#119

TCU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	HOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#31	#99
SuccessSuc	#16	#126
ExplosiveExp	#51	#51
PPAPPA	#25	#114
PowerPwr	#24	#55
SP+SP+	#19	#54
Pts POPPO	#69	#111
HavocHav	#19	#121

TCU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	#97	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#104
Run ExplRExp	#93	#93
PPAExp	#29	#111
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#101
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#74
TackleTak	-	#73

TCU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#94
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#130
Pass ExplPExl	#63	#27
PPAExp	#27	#108
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#51	#132
F7 HavocF7	#6	#110
DB HavocDB	#94	#124

Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

HOU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
TCU -16.5 (52.0)
Houston won at TCU this year (30-19)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Houston last year (17-14)
Houston beat TCU in 2024 (30-19)
TCU beat Houston in 2023 (36-13)

HOU's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Donovan Smith	87	133	65%	867	4	8	6.5
Zeon Chriss	83	130	64%	824	4	8	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Re'Shaun Sanford II	94	444	1	4.7	38
Zeon Chriss	113	381	4	3.4	71
Stacy Sneed	60	308	1	5.1	65
J'Marion Burnette	43	182	0	4.2	54

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Stephon Johnson Jr.	32	402	2	12.6	44
Joseph Manjack	22	351	3	16.0	57
Mekhi Mews (Tr)	29	253	1	8.7	57
Maliq Carr (Tr)	19	186	1	9.8	23

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Batton (Tr)	94	8	3	3	0
A.J. Haulcy	74	0	0	0	7
Jamal Morris	63	5	1	0	0
Kentrell Webb (Tr)	54	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keith Cooper Jr.	46	9	4	7	2
Michael Batton (Tr)	94	8	3	3	0
Brandon Mack	39	5	3	2	0
Anthony Holmes Jr.	35	9	3	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
A.J. Haulcy	74	0	0	7
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)	24	4	0	4
Ajani Carter	22	1	1	3

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	313	471	67%	3949	27	11	8.4
Ken Seals (Tr)	10	13	77%	97	1	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Cook	119	460	9	3.9	19
Savion Williams	51	322	6	6.3	35
Jeremy Payne	54	239	3	4.4	32
Trent Battle	44	186	2	4.2	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Bech	62	1034	9	16.7	52
Eric McAlister (Tr)	39	762	5	19.5	84
John Paul Richardson	57	733	2	12.9	38
Savion Williams	60	611	6	10.2	75

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Hodges	89	5	1	2	0
Namdi Obiazor	81	7	3	2	1
Jamel Johnson	72	2	0	0	3
Bud Clark	68	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devean Deal (Tr)	46	10	6	3	1
Cooper McDonald (Tr)	25	5	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)	38	9	3	5	1
Zachary Chapman	24	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Lamareon James (Tr)	34	0	0	12
Abraham Camara	55	6	1	6
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)	12	0	0	4