Houston at TCU - 2024 Matchup Preview
Houston logo Houston Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Friday, October 4th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
TCU -16.5 (52.0) (-800)  Open: -17.0
Houston 30 - TCU: 19  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 23 (13 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
TCU is playing their 6th straight game
HOU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: TCU -21   (SP+ TCU -19)

Projected Score: HOU: 15 - TCU: 36 (47)
TCU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
HOU Travel: 238 miles
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Houston vs UNLV-3.056.0L 7 - 27UN
Sat 9/7 Houston at Oklahoma+27.548.5L 12 - 16UY
Sat 9/14 Houston vs Rice-3.543.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 9/21 Houston at Cincinnati+4.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/28 Houston vs Iowa State+16.043.0L 0 - 20UN
Fri 10/4 Houston at TCU+16.552.0W 30 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Houston vs Kansas+4.545.5L 14 - 42ON
Sat 10/26 Houston vs Utah+4.536.0W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/2 Houston vs Kansas State+12.546.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15 Houston at Arizona+1.046.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 11/23 Houston vs Baylor+7.051.0L 10 - 20UN
Sat 11/30 Houston at BYU+9.539.5L 18 - 30ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 8, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
TCU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 TCU at Stanford-8.058.5W 34 - 27ON
Sat 9/7 TCU vs Long Island University-45.556.5W 45 - 0UN
Sat 9/14 TCU vs UCF-1.561.5L 34 - 35ON
Sat 9/21 TCU at SMU-1.058.5L 42 - 66ON
Sat 9/28 TCU vs Kansas+1.558.5W 38 - 27OY
Fri 10/4 TCU vs Houston-16.552.0L 19 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 TCU at Utah+3.052.0W 13 - 7UY
Sat 10/26 TCU vs Texas Tech-5.066.0W 35 - 34ON
Sat 11/2 TCU at Baylor+2.564.0L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/9 TCU vs Oklahoma State-10.568.5W 38 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 TCU vs Arizona-10.560.0W 49 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 TCU at Cincinnati-2.558.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 12/28 TCU vs Louisiana-9.561.0W 34 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU#104 (.13)40% (97)1439% (110)2.97 (96)11941% (75)2413.44 (100)#114 (.26)47% (126)22.947% (104)48% (130)4.26 (111)49.21.31.2
TCU#25 (.28)47% (16)33.549% (18)3.35 (23)15547% (20)3123.91 (69)#96 (.23)44% (89)24.643% (70)45% (112)3.91 (78)53.61.61
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Offense121412.639.7%3.441.319360119241442%56%39%41%14%.13
TCU Defense1224.623.343.6%3.911 - - - - - 51%49%43%45%13%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HOU Defense1222.925.246.7%4.261.2 - - - - - 51%47%47%48%13%.26
TCU Offense1233.536.747.4%3.911.6254671553124.642%57%49%47%13%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Houston1227:5619.236%26%5.749.21.31.251.9328.2
TCU1227:212546%50%6.253.61.6151.8229.9
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Offense1242% (115)39% (110)29.9118.8410 (124).06 (116)2.97 (96)59% (129)9% (57)0.98 (82)
TCU Defense1251% (76)43% (70) - - - - .16 (81)3.16 (82)78% (100)8% (117)1 (72)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HOU Defense1251% (89)47% (104) - - - - .23 (111)3.24 (101)75% (79)8% (110)1.05 (93)
TCU Offense1242% (119)49% (18)33.8154.54.619 (69).22 (29)3.35 (23)79% (26)7% (6)0.96 (93)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Offense1256% (24)41% (75)21.733.9241.47.111.124 (41)13 (97).25 (77)1.5 (86)34% (94)25% (111).18 (107)5% (20)2.1 (56)
TCU Defense1249% (59)45% (112) - - - - - - 8 (100).35 (106)1.6 (86)31% (95)35% (122).37 (98)5% (119)2 (34)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HOU Defense1247% (40)48% (130) - - - - - - 9 (87).35 (108)1.5 (27)30% (98)38% (128).47 (125)4% (124)2.1 (91)
TCU Offense1257% (16)47% (20)26.641.9312.27.511.727 (25)15 (116).4 (27)1.6 (63)31% (54)42% (4).61 (6)7% (94)2 (73)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: -5.97 #86
Houston's Offense Rating: 9.85 #129
Houston's Defense Rating: 8.04 #55
2024 Talent Rating: 608.00 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #62
Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #118
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: -5.97   TCU: 14.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: -8.2   TCU: 10.8




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.1 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 794.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Houston Scoring
Offense: 14 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 36
Houston 15


Projected Total Points: 47
TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/04TCU19Houston30HoustonTCU -16.5Houston52.0Under
202309/16Houston13TCU36TCUTCU -7.5TCU64.0Under
200712/28Houston13TCU20TCU
200410/23TCU34Houston27TCU
200310/25Houston55TCU62TCU
200210/05TCU34Houston17TCU
200109/29Houston17TCU34TCU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU610 Overs
Houston112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 50 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams5 - 22 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#86) Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.97 #86
Offense Rating: 9.85 #129
Defense Rating: 8.04 #55
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #118
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #54
Talent Rating: 608.00 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #62
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.57 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Good in Scoring Position 3.52 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Houston Notes
(12/14) Hired DC A. Armstrong (UF DC 23-24)
(12/5) Fired OC Kevin Barbay
(12/5) Hired OC Slade Nagle, ST/TE coach @ LSU
(11/25) 4 TOs, 3-10 on 3rd, 239 total yards in bad Bay L
(11/25) Def played great vs Bay, forced 3 INTs, Off sucks
(11/18) Regress vs Zona, Off abysmal, 3 TOs, Def OK
(11/2) Huge W over K St. Chris 11-11, Run D great
(10/27) 13 Passes, 230 ryds (4.7 ypc) in Utah upset. Big W
(10/18) QB Criss replacing Smith (should be an upgrade)
(9/22) Off abysmal. Can't run/pass. Def can't overcome
Houston     Ratings Matchup     TCU
Power #86
#21
Off #129
#24
Def #55
#53
Talent #74
#32
SP+ #101
#25
SP+ Off #118
#19
SP+ Def #54
#38

Rematch from Week 6
TCU -16.5 (52.0)
Houston won at TCU this year (30-19)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat TCU last year (30-19)
TCU beat Houston in 2023 (36-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 86° - Wind: 11 mph


Team Information
Injuries: HOU | TCU
Depth Chart: HOU | TCU
Rosters: HOU | TCU
(#21) TCU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 14.1 #21
Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38
Talent Rating: 794.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Great Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.82 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


TCU Notes
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)


  
Houston's OC Kevin Barbay
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zeon Chriss (Tr)8313064%824486.3
Ui Ale101377%112108.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Re'Shaun Sanford II9444414.738
Zeon Chriss (Tr)11338143.471
Stacy Sneed6030815.165
J'Marion Burnette4318204.254
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Stephon Johnson Jr.32402212.644
Joseph Manjack22351316.057
Mekhi Mews (Tr)2925318.757
Maliq Carr (Tr)1918619.823

View Houston's Full Roster
Houston's DC Shiel Wood
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Batton (Tr)948330
A.J. Haulcy740007
Kentrell Webb (Tr)541003
Hershey McLaurin (Tr)508113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Cooper Jr.469472
Michael Batton (Tr)948330
Brandon Mack395320
Anthony Holmes Jr.359350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Haulcy740007
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)244004
Ajani Carter221103

TCU's OC Kendal Briles
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover31347167%394927118.4
Ken Seals (Tr)101377%97107.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Cook11946093.919
Jeremy Payne5423934.432
Trent Battle4418624.224
Jordyn Bailey374124.759
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric McAlister (Tr)39762519.584
Drake Dabney (Tr)19193010.244
D'Andre Rogers12142211.840
Jeremy Payne129908.321

View TCU's Full Roster
TCU's DC Andy Avalos
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Namdi Obiazor817321
Jamel Johnson722003
Bud Clark680003
Kaleb Elarms-Orr (Tr)545220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devean Deal (Tr)4610631
Cooper McDonald (Tr)255321
Zachary Chapman243310
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)389351
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lamareon James (Tr)3400012
Jamel Johnson473009
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)120004