Oklahoma State at TCU - 2024 Matchup Preview
Oklahoma State logo Oklahoma State Cowboys at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, November 9th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
TCU -10.5 (68.5) (-500)  Open: -12.0 | 67.0
TCU 38 - Oklahoma State: 13  (Big 12)

 
Cowboys (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (166 - 79)
Avg Score : 27 - 36 (24 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
TCU is playing their 4th straight game
OKST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: TCU -15  (SP+ TCU -13)

Projected Score: OKST: 25 - TCU: 40 (65)
TCU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
OKST Travel: 237 miles
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State-9.554.0W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/7 Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-10.560.5W 39 - 31ON
Sat 9/14 Oklahoma State at Tulsa-17.562.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/21 Oklahoma State vs Utah+1.053.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 9/28 Oklahoma State at Kansas State+6.058.0L 20 - 42ON
Sat 10/5 Oklahoma State vs West Virginia-2.565.0L 14 - 38UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Oklahoma State at BYU+8.553.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 10/26 Oklahoma State at Baylor+7.064.5L 28 - 38ON
Sat 11/2 Oklahoma State vs Arizona State+5.057.0L 21 - 42ON
Sat 11/9 Oklahoma State at TCU+10.568.5L 13 - 38UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech+5.063.5L 48 - 56ON
Fri 11/29 Oklahoma State at Colorado+14.566.5L 0 - 52UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
TCU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 TCU at Stanford-8.058.5W 34 - 27ON
Sat 9/7 TCU vs Long Island University-45.556.5W 45 - 0UN
Sat 9/14 TCU vs UCF-1.561.5L 34 - 35ON
Sat 9/21 TCU at SMU-1.058.5L 42 - 66ON
Sat 9/28 TCU vs Kansas+1.558.5W 38 - 27OY
Fri 10/4 TCU vs Houston-16.552.0L 19 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 TCU at Utah+3.052.0W 13 - 7UY
Sat 10/26 TCU vs Texas Tech-5.066.0W 35 - 34ON
Sat 11/2 TCU at Baylor+2.564.0L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/9 TCU vs Oklahoma State-10.568.5W 38 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 TCU vs Arizona-10.560.0W 49 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 TCU at Cincinnati-2.558.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 12/28 TCU vs Louisiana-9.561.0W 34 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)27.243% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)35.647% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)33.545% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)24.646% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)43% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)47% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKST Offense1227.223.543.1%4.221.8203791142653.942%58%43%44%15%.21
TCU Defense1324.623.341.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKST Defense1235.636.345.6%3.931.3 - - - - - 50%50%47%44%15%.34
TCU Offense1333.536.747.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oklahoma State1227:0320.435%65%543.21.81.35.52.1127.1
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKST Offense1242% (117)43% (86)29.4114.23.918 (78).04 (109)2.79 (107)74% (61)7% (19)0.87 (119)
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKST Defense1250% (65)47% (107) - - - - .31 (133)3.43 (126)73% (68)8% (112)1.25 (133)
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKST Offense1258% (17)44% (47)22.337.5264.77.111.922 (46)17 (127).34 (30)1.6 (67)31% (66)31% (82).32 (77)7% (109)1.9 (99)
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKST Defense1250% (73)44% (108) - - - - - - 12 (39).37 (123)1.8 (124)32% (56)36% (119).46 (120)6% (53)2.1 (88)
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: 0.59  #59
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 25.18  #18
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.51  #105
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #53
Oklahoma State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Oklahoma State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6  #81
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #53
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #102

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: 0.59   TCU: 14.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -2.6   TCU: 10.8




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.1  #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52  #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72  #53
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8  #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8  #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.5
Defense: 35.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Oklahoma State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 40
Oklahoma State 25


Total Points: 65

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 32
Oklahoma State 29

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
TCU 36
Oklahoma State 25

Total Points: 61
TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09TCU38Oklahoma State13TCU -10.5TCU68.5Under
202210/15TCU43Oklahoma State40TCU -5Oklahoma State69.5Over
202111/13Oklahoma State63TCU17Oklahoma State -11Oklahoma State53.5Over
202012/05TCU29Oklahoma State22Oklahoma State -2.5TCU52.5Under
201911/02Oklahoma State34TCU27TCU -1Oklahoma State58.5Over
201811/24TCU31Oklahoma State24Oklahoma State -6TCU52.5Over
201709/23Oklahoma State31TCU44Oklahoma State -10.5TCU68.0Over
201611/19TCU6Oklahoma State31TCU -4.5Oklahoma State68.5Under
201511/07Oklahoma State49TCU29TCU -5Oklahoma State76.0Over
201410/18TCU42Oklahoma State9TCU -10TCU0
201310/19Oklahoma State24TCU10Oklahoma State -7Oklahoma State0
201210/27Oklahoma State36TCU14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU656 Overs
Oklahoma State663 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 28 - 34 - 34 - 0
Road Teams2 - 103 - 80 - 43 - 4

(#59) OKST at (#21) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOKSTTCU
Power RatePwr #59 #21
SP+SP+ #81 #25
Perf GradeGrade #103 #32
OffenseOff #65 #31
DefenseDef #128 #55
Spec TeamsST #49 #14
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #53 #38

Oklahoma State Notes
(12/10) Hired DC Todd Grantham (NFL, Florida)
(11/29) What does Gundy do to reset? Or does he?
(11/29) Killed by Buffs 52-0. OG'd 471-147. QB/RB awful
(11/29) 18 yr bowl streak over, was 2nd longest in CFB
(11/23) Fight w/ TT, QB Smith great, Def abysmal
(11/13) Quit. Awful vs TCU, Def is shockingly awful
(11/3) Pokes Def is worst in P4 and near worst in CFB
(11/2) Team has Quit. Have all 40 ppg in B12 play.
(10/19) Rangel inj vs BYU, out 'a while'. Bowman back
(10/19) Monitor for quit watch after BYU collapse
(10/18) QB Bowman benched, SO Rangel (FR Flores?)

TCU Notes
(11/25) 2 str W's, Rgame good, Hoover good vs TCU
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
Oklahoma State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
OKST OffTCU Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #55
SuccessSuc #63 #67
ExplosiveExp #69 #52
PPAPPA #52 #82
PowerPwr #18 #53
SP+SP+ #53 #38
Pts POPPO #42 #72
HavocHav #45 #102
Oklahoma State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
OKST OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #92 #68
Run SuccessRSuc #86 #102
Run ExplRExp #119 #87
PPAExp #109 #118
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #107 #104
Stuff RateStuff #80 #87
TackleTak -  #22
Oklahoma State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
OKST OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #101 #14
Pass SuccessPSuc #47 #18
Pass ExplPExl #67 #57
PPAExp #30 #40
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #4 #124
F7 HavocF7 #19 #105
DB HavocDB #109 #81
TCU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatTCU OffOKST Def
Perf GradePerf #31 #128
SuccessSuc #20 #109
ExplosiveExp #45 #132
PPAPPA #18 #131
PowerPwr #24 #105
SP+SP+ #19 #102
Pts POPPO #20 #82
HavocHav #28 #89
TCU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
TCU OffOKST Def
Run GameRun #97 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #107
Run ExplRExp #85 #133
PPAExp #95 #133
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #85 #126
Stuff RateStuff #82 #119
TackleTak -  #122
TCU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatTCU OffOKST Def
Pass GamePass #17 #119
Pass SuccessPSuc #9 #108
Pass ExplPExl #75 #124
PPAExp #5 #123
Pass Block/RushP Blk #51 #126
F7 HavocF7 #36 #112
DB HavocDB #38 #53
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
TCU -10.5 (68.5)
TCU won vs Oklahoma State this year (38-13)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Oklahoma State last year (38-13)
TCU beat Oklahoma State in 2022 (43-40)

  
OKST's OC Kasey Dunn (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alan Bowman20434060%244217127.2
Maealiuaki Smith447559%499246.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ollie Gordon189858124.568
Trenten Howland4123015.623
Sesi Vailahi429922.411
Rodney Fields Jr.219914.722
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
De'Zhaun Stribling52892617.277
Brennan Presley8976478.636
Rashod Owens32515416.158
Talyn Shettron12245120.478

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Bryan Nardo (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Rucker841001
Kendal Daniels6411637
Jeff Roberson589370
Parker Robertson492001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendal Daniels6411637
Jeff Roberson589370
Obi Ezeigbo (Tr)429340
Xavier Ross123311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korie Black360009
Kendal Daniels6411637
Cam Smith341007

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover31347167%394927118.4
Ken Seals (Tr)101377%97107.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Cook11946093.919
Savion Williams5132266.335
Jeremy Payne5423934.432
Trent Battle4418624.224
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jack Bech621034916.752
Eric McAlister (Tr)39762519.584
John Paul Richardson57733212.938
Savion Williams60611610.275

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Johnny Hodges895120
Namdi Obiazor817321
Jamel Johnson722003
Bud Clark680003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devean Deal (Tr)4610631
Cooper McDonald (Tr)255321
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)389351
Zachary Chapman243310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lamareon James (Tr)3400012
Abraham Camara556016
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)120004