TCU at Cincinnati - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (6:00 PM EST)
TCU -2.5 (58.5) (-140) Open: -3.0 | 58.5
TCU 20 - Cincinnati: 13 (Big 12)

Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.9 MPH
CIN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: TCU -8 (SP+ TCU -11)
Projected Score: TCU: 33 - CIN: 25 (58)
TCU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TCU Travel: 844 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bearcats (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Scott Satterfield (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (27 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TCU Players
CIN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

TCU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	TCU at Stanford	-8.0	58.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/7	TCU vs Long Island University	-45.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/14	TCU vs UCF	-1.5	61.5	L 34 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/21	TCU at SMU	-1.0	58.5	L 42 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/28	TCU vs Kansas	+1.5	58.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Fri 10/4	TCU vs Houston	-16.5	52.0	L 19 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	TCU at Utah	+3.0	52.0	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	TCU vs Texas Tech	-5.0	66.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	TCU at Baylor	+2.5	64.0	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/9	TCU vs Oklahoma State	-10.5	68.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	TCU vs Arizona	-10.5	60.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	TCU at Cincinnati	-2.5	58.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 12/28	TCU vs Louisiana	-9.5	61.0	W 34 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Cincinnati vs Towson	-33.5	56.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/7	Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	62.5	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Cincinnati at Miami (OH)	-3.5	47.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Cincinnati vs Houston	-4.0	47.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Cincinnati at Texas Tech	+3.0	60.0	L 41 - 44	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Cincinnati at UCF	+2.0	58.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Cincinnati vs Arizona State	-5.5	51.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Cincinnati at Colorado	+6.0	57.0	L 23 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Cincinnati vs West Virginia	-5.5	54.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/16	Cincinnati at Iowa State	+7.0	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/23	Cincinnati at Kansas State	+7.5	54.5	L 15 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	Cincinnati vs TCU	+2.5	58.5	L 13 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)	33.5	45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)	24.6	46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)	25.2	44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)	24.6	46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)		45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)		46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)		44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)		46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Offense	13	33.5	28.6	47.1%	4.46	1.6	21	400	106	293	3.9	42%	58%	45%	49%	13%	.3
CIN Defense	12	24.6	18.8	42.2%	3.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	46%	39%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Defense	13	24.6	30	41.5%	3.82	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	46%	36%	14%	.19
CIN Offense	12	25.2	26.7	44.7%	3.33	1.5	22	422	185	237	5.2	50%	50%	44%	45%	16%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
TCU	13	26:11	21	44%	80%	5.2	49.7	1.6	1.1	4.5	1.8	1	31.7
Cincinnati	12	31:42	22.1	42%	55%	5.3	44.4	1.5	1.2	5.4	1.6	0	26.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Offense	13	42% (119)	45% (53)	27.6	106.4	3.9	26 (36)	.08 (95)	2.95 (85)	73% (70)	8% (36)	0.94 (85)
CIN Defense	12	51% (75)	46% (94)	-	-	-	-	.14 (77)	3.19 (98)	73% (63)	11% (51)	0.95 (49)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Defense	13	53% (95)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.22 (118)	3.26 (104)	89% (134)	9% (105)	1.02 (87)
CIN Offense	12	50% (72)	44% (67)	35.3	185	5.2	19 (73)	.15 (59)	3.03 (69)	71% (84)	11% (93)	1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Offense	13	58% (19)	49% (9)	23.5	34.9	293.2	8.4	12.5	25 (31)	10 (63)	.47 (5)	1.6 (75)	31% (57)	33% (47)	.4 (39)	5% (38)	2.1 (55)
CIN Defense	12	49% (63)	39% (43)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.23 (71)	1.7 (108)	31% (93)	31% (79)	.34 (86)	5% (87)	2 (66)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Defense	13	47% (41)	36% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.18 (40)	1.5 (57)	34% (42)	27% (19)	.19 (22)	6% (81)	1.8 (26)
CIN Offense	12	50% (63)	45% (32)	21	32.9	236.5	7.2	11.3	18 (68)	7 (26)	.26 (63)	1.4 (121)	30% (41)	36% (20)	.5 (10)	5% (33)	2.1 (67)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 12.40 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 12.40 Cincinnati: 3.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 10.8 Cincinnati: -0.1

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 3.415 #56
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.64 #44
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 11.67 #85
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Cincinnati's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Cincinnati's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.1 #72
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 33
Cincinnati 25

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
TCU 35
Cincinnati 27

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Cincinnati 27
TCU 26

Total Points: 53

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Cincinnati's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	TCU	45	Cincinnati	23	TCU -3.0	TCU	58.5	Over
2024	11/30	Cincinnati	13	TCU	20	TCU -2.5	TCU	58.5	Under
2004	10/30	Cincinnati	21	TCU	10
2003	11/15	TCU	43	Cincinnati	10
2002	09/02	Cincinnati	36	TCU	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Cincinnati	2	0	1 Overs
TCU	3	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 4	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#21) TCU at (#56) CIN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TCU	CIN
Power RatePwr	#21	#56
SP+SP+	#25	#72
Perf GradeGrade	#32	#70
OffenseOff	#31	#56
DefenseDef	#55	#69
Spec TeamsST	#14	#90
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#53

TCU Notes(11/25) 2 str W's, Rgame good, Hoover good vs TCU
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
(7/30) Briles 2nd yr at OC, New DC Avalos (Boise HC)
TCU Injury Report

Cincinnati Notes(11/25) 4 str L's, down 27-3 at H, Def killed by K St
(11/18) 3 str L's, Sorsby awful pass, good run, Rgame good
(11/13) 2 awful L's, outplayed WVU, 3 TO's cost, fading
(10/27) Big L vs Buffs, Off bad, 3-10 on 3rd, 9 flags
(10/19) Sorsby, Rgame enough vs ASU. Def held 4 big W
(10/12) Sorsby meh, Rgame awful, Def Ok in W (UCF)
(9/26) QB Sorsby a revelation. Top 3 QB in B12
(9/15) Pass heavy team, awful Red Zone, Def Rzone good
(9/8) Gagged vs Pitt. Had 36+ mins Off but Def torched
(9/1) Def gave up 438 yds to Towson? Rgame good
(8/3) New DC Fuqua will run 3-3-5, DT loss huge
(7/30) All B12 DT Corleone out indefintely (7/3)
Cincinnati Injury Report

TCU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	CIN Def
Perf GradePerf	#31	#69
SuccessSuc	#20	#76
ExplosiveExp	#45	#75
PPAPPA	#18	#75
PowerPwr	#24	#85
SP+SP+	#19	#57
Pts POPPO	#20	#40
HavocHav	#28	#67

TCU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#97	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#94
Run ExplRExp	#85	#49
PPAExp	#95	#77
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	#85	#98
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#56
TackleTak	-	#69

TCU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#9	#43
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#108
PPAExp	#5	#71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#51	#111
F7 HavocF7	#36	#51
DB HavocDB	#38	#87

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	TCU Def
Perf GradePerf	#56	#55
SuccessSuc	#43	#67
ExplosiveExp	#79	#52
PPAPPA	#59	#82
PowerPwr	#44	#53
SP+SP+	#79	#38
Pts POPPO	#118	#72
HavocHav	#69	#102

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#34	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#102
Run ExplRExp	#34	#87
PPAExp	#59	#118
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#69	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#105	#87
TackleTak	-	#22

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#14
Pass SuccessPSuc	#32	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#121	#57
PPAExp	#63	#40
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#124
F7 HavocF7	#93	#105
DB HavocDB	#33	#81

Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 33° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 14
TCU 2.5 (58.5)
TCU won at Cincinnati this year (20-13)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Cincinnati last year (20-13)

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	313	471	67%	3949	27	11	8.4
Ken Seals (Tr)	10	13	77%	97	1	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Cook	119	460	9	3.9	19
Savion Williams	51	322	6	6.3	35
Jeremy Payne	54	239	3	4.4	32
Trent Battle	44	186	2	4.2	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Bech	62	1034	9	16.7	52
Eric McAlister (Tr)	39	762	5	19.5	84
John Paul Richardson	57	733	2	12.9	38
Savion Williams	60	611	6	10.2	75

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Hodges	89	5	1	2	0
Namdi Obiazor	81	7	3	2	1
Jamel Johnson	72	2	0	0	3
Bud Clark	68	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devean Deal (Tr)	46	10	6	3	1
Cooper McDonald (Tr)	25	5	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)	38	9	3	5	1
Zachary Chapman	24	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Lamareon James (Tr)	34	0	0	12
Abraham Camara	55	6	1	6
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)	12	0	0	4

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	249	389	64%	2813	18	7	7.2
Brady Lichtenberg	3	5	60%	25	0	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Kiner	204	1153	4	5.7	46
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	106	445	9	4.2	41
Evan Pryor (Tr)	56	418	6	7.5	65
Chance Williams (Tr)	15	67	0	4.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xzavier Henderson	58	735	4	12.7	42
Joe Royer (Tr)	51	532	3	10.4	38
Tony Johnson (Tr)	49	452	6	9.2	23
Jamoi Mayes	29	349	1	12.0	52

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Tyson Veidt (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Jake Golday (Tr)	57	7	1	0	2
Antwan Peek Jr.	54	1	0	0	1
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Eric Phillips	19	5	3	6	0
Dontay Corleone	26	5	3	4	0
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jordan Young	35	1	5
Derrick Canteen (Tr)	44	3	5
Josh Minkins (Tr)	45	2	4