TCU at Cincinnati - 2024 Matchup Preview
TCU logo TCU Horned Frogs at Cincinnati BearcatsCincinnati logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (6:00 PM EST)
TCU -2.5 (58.5) (-140)  Open: -3.0 | 58.5
TCU 20 - Cincinnati: 13  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
CIN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: TCU -8   (SP+ TCU -11)

Projected Score: TCU: 32 - CIN: 24 (56)
TCU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TCU Travel: 844 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bearcats (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Scott Satterfield (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (27 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 TCU at Stanford-8.058.5W 34 - 27ON
Sat 9/7 TCU vs Long Island University-45.556.5W 45 - 0UN
Sat 9/14 TCU vs UCF-1.561.5L 34 - 35ON
Sat 9/21 TCU at SMU-1.058.5L 42 - 66ON
Sat 9/28 TCU vs Kansas+1.558.5W 38 - 27OY
Fri 10/4 TCU vs Houston-16.552.0L 19 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 TCU at Utah+3.052.0W 13 - 7UY
Sat 10/26 TCU vs Texas Tech-5.066.0W 35 - 34ON
Sat 11/2 TCU at Baylor+2.564.0L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/9 TCU vs Oklahoma State-10.568.5W 38 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 TCU vs Arizona-10.560.0W 49 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 TCU at Cincinnati-2.558.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 12/28 TCU vs Louisiana-9.561.0W 34 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 4, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 3, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Cincinnati vs Towson-33.556.5W 38 - 20ON
Sat 9/7 Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh+2.562.5L 27 - 28UY
Sat 9/14 Cincinnati at Miami (OH)-3.547.5W 27 - 16UY
Sat 9/21 Cincinnati vs Houston-4.047.5W 34 - 0UY
Sat 9/28 Cincinnati at Texas Tech+3.060.0L 41 - 44OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Cincinnati at UCF+2.058.0W 19 - 13UY
Sat 10/19 Cincinnati vs Arizona State-5.551.0W 24 - 14UY
Sat 10/26 Cincinnati at Colorado+6.057.0L 23 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Cincinnati vs West Virginia-5.554.5L 24 - 31ON
Sat 11/16 Cincinnati at Iowa State+7.052.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 11/23 Cincinnati at Kansas State+7.554.5L 15 - 41ON
Sat 11/30 Cincinnati vs TCU+2.558.5L 13 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)33.545% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)24.646% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)25.244% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)24.646% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)44% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)46% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1333.528.647.1%4.461.6214001062933.942%58%45%49%13%.3
CIN Defense1224.618.842.2%3.511.2 - - - - - 51%49%46%39%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1324.63041.5%3.821.1 - - - - - 53%47%46%36%14%.19
CIN Offense1225.226.744.7%3.331.5224221852375.250%50%44%45%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1326:112144%80%5.249.71.61.14.51.8131.7
Cincinnati1231:4222.142%55%5.344.41.51.25.41.6026.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1342% (119)45% (53)27.6106.43.926 (36).08 (95)2.95 (85)73% (70)8% (36)0.94 (85)
CIN Defense1251% (75)46% (94) - - - - .14 (77)3.19 (98)73% (63)11% (51)0.95 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1353% (95)46% (102) - - - - .22 (118)3.26 (104)89% (134)9% (105)1.02 (87)
CIN Offense1250% (72)44% (67)35.31855.219 (73).15 (59)3.03 (69)71% (84)11% (93)1.07 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1358% (19)49% (9)23.534.9293.28.412.525 (31)10 (63).47 (5)1.6 (75)31% (57)33% (47).4 (39)5% (38)2.1 (55)
CIN Defense1249% (63)39% (43) - - - - - - 5 (117).23 (71)1.7 (108)31% (93)31% (79).34 (86)5% (87)2 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1347% (41)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (93).18 (40)1.5 (57)34% (42)27% (19).19 (22)6% (81)1.8 (26)
CIN Offense1250% (63)45% (32)2132.9236.57.211.318 (68)7 (26).26 (63)1.4 (121)30% (41)36% (20).5 (10)5% (33)2.1 (67)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 12.40 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 12.40   Cincinnati: 3.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 10.8   Cincinnati: -0.1




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 3.415 #56
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.64 #44
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 11.67 #85
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Cincinnati's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Cincinnati's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.1 #72
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 32
Cincinnati 24


Total Points: 56

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Cincinnati's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Cincinnati13TCU20TCUTCU -2.5TCU58.5Under
200410/30Cincinnati21TCU10Cincinnati
200311/15TCU43Cincinnati10TCU
200209/02Cincinnati36TCU29Cincinnati
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati200 Overs
TCU211 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 31 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#21) TCU Info
Power Rating: 12.40 #21
Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Great Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.82 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Great Pass Def Success 36%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

TCU has won 2 straight
TCU has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

TCU Notes
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)

TCU Highlights
TCU offense is efficent (#9)
TCU offense is good in red zone (#29)
TCU has a good pass defense (#104)

TCU Deficiencies
TCU has a bad TO Margin (#28)
TCU Fumbles a Lot (#1)
TCU Can Not Run the Ball (#97)
TCU has a bad defensive line (#106)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCINTCU
OverallOver#48#25
OffenseOff#47#27
DefenseDef#52#40
Special TeamsST#75#13
PassingPass#50#15
RushingRush#23#68
Run BlockRBLK#42#62
Pass BlockPBLK#34#48
Route RunningWR Rt#54#8
TacklingTkl#60#20
Run DefenseR Def#49#53
Pass Rush DefPRush#95#104
Coverage DefCov#35#12

Rematch from Week 14
TCU 2.5 (58.5)
TCU won at Cincinnati this year (20-13)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Cincinnati last year (20-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TCU | CIN
Depth Chart: TCU | CIN
Rosters: TCU | CIN
(#56) Cincinnati Info
Power Rating: 3.415 #56
Offense Rating: 22.64 #44
Defense Rating: 11.67 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.1 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #57
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Good in Scoring Position 3.51 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Cincinnati has lost 4 straight
Cincinnati has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 3 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Cincinnati Notes
(11/18) 3 str L's, Sorsby awful pass, good run, Rgame good
(11/13) 2 awful L's, outplayed WVU, 3 TO's cost, fading
(10/27) Big L vs Buffs, Off bad, 3-10 on 3rd, 9 flags
(10/19) Sorsby, Rgame enough vs ASU. Def held 4 big W
(10/12) Sorsby meh, Rgame awful, Def Ok in W (UCF)
(9/26) QB Sorsby a revelation. Top 3 QB in B12
(9/15) Pass heavy team, awful Red Zone, Def Rzone good
(9/8) Gagged vs Pitt. Had 36+ mins Off but Def torched
(9/1) Def gave up 438 yds to Towson? Rgame good
(8/3) New DC Fuqua will run 3-3-5, DT loss huge

Cincinnati Highlights

Cincinnati Deficiencies
Cincinnati Fumbles a Lot (#89)
Cincinnati Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#43)
Cincinnati offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#10)


  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover31347167%394927118.4
Ken Seals (Tr)101377%97107.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Cook11946093.919
Savion Williams5132266.335
Jeremy Payne5423934.432
Trent Battle4418624.224
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jack Bech621034916.752
Eric McAlister (Tr)39762519.584
John Paul Richardson57733212.938
Savion Williams60611610.275

View TCU's Full Roster
TCU's DC Andy Avalos
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Johnny Hodges895120
Namdi Obiazor817321
Jamel Johnson722003
Bud Clark680003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devean Deal (Tr)4610631
Cooper McDonald (Tr)255321
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)389351
Zachary Chapman243310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lamareon James (Tr)3400012
Abraham Camara556016
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)120004

Cincinnati's OC Brad Glenn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)24938964%28131877.2
Brady Lichtenberg3560%25005.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Kiner204115345.746
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)10644594.241
Evan Pryor (Tr)5641867.565
Chance Williams (Tr)156704.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xzavier Henderson58735412.742
Joe Royer (Tr)51532310.438
Tony Johnson (Tr)4945269.223
Jamoi Mayes29349112.052

View Cincinnati's Full Roster
Cincinnati's DC Tyson Veidt
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)7012823
Jake Golday (Tr)577102
Antwan Peek Jr.541001
Jonathan Thompson495213
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)7012823
Eric Phillips195360
Dontay Corleone265340
Jonathan Thompson495213
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Young351005
Derrick Canteen (Tr)443005
Josh Minkins (Tr)452004