Arizona at TCU - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:00 PM EST)
TCU -10.5 (60.0) (-425) Open: -9.5
TCU 49 - Arizona: 28 (Big 12)

Wildcats (4 - 8) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TCU coming off BYE
Our Line: TCU -19.5 (SP+ TCU -14)
Projected Score: ARIZ: 19 - TCU: 38 (57)
TCU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
ARIZ Travel: 792 miles, 1 hrs behind

Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARIZ Players
TCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona vs New Mexico	-28.0	60.0	W 61 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/7	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-43.0	65.0	W 22 - 10	U	N
Fri 9/13	Arizona at Kansas State	+7.0	58.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Arizona at Utah	+7.5	47.0	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Arizona vs Texas Tech	-6.0	64.0	L 22 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/12	Arizona at BYU	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/19	Arizona vs Colorado	-2.5	57.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/26	Arizona vs West Virginia	-5.5	51.5	L 26 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/2	Arizona at UCF	+6.5	55.0	L 12 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Arizona vs Houston	-1.0	46.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona at TCU	+10.5	60.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/30	Arizona vs Arizona State	+7.5	52.5	L 7 - 49	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule

TCU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	TCU at Stanford	-8.0	58.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/7	TCU vs Long Island University	-45.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/14	TCU vs UCF	-1.5	61.5	L 34 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/21	TCU at SMU	-1.0	58.5	L 42 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/28	TCU vs Kansas	+1.5	58.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Fri 10/4	TCU vs Houston	-16.5	52.0	L 19 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	TCU at Utah	+3.0	52.0	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	TCU vs Texas Tech	-5.0	66.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	TCU at Baylor	+2.5	64.0	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/9	TCU vs Oklahoma State	-10.5	68.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	TCU vs Arizona	-10.5	60.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	TCU at Cincinnati	-2.5	58.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 12/28	TCU vs Louisiana	-9.5	61.0	W 34 - 3	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ	#10 (.34)	51% (6)	31.5	52% (5)	3.26 (40)	140	50% (10)	308	4.42 (29)	#57 (.16)	42% (67)	19.3	43% (71)	41% (62)	3.37 (29)	53	1.1	1.4
TCU	#25 (.28)	47% (16)	30.7	49% (18)	3.35 (23)	155	47% (20)	312	3.91 (69)	#96 (.23)	44% (89)	25.3	43% (70)	45% (112)	3.91 (78)	53.6	1.6	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Offense	13	31.5	29.4	50.6%	4.42	1.1	23	448	140	308	4.6	43%	57%	52%	50%	14%	.34
TCU Defense	12	25.3	24.2	43.6%	3.91	1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	43%	45%	13%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Defense	13	19.3	23.6	41.9%	3.37	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	41%	17%	.16
TCU Offense	12	30.7	36	47.4%	3.91	1.6	25	467	155	312	4.6	42%	57%	49%	47%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona	13	30:50	23	49%	67%	6.3	53	1.1	1.4	5.3	2.4	1	29.9
TCU	12	27:21	25	46%	50%	6.2	53.6	1.6	1	5	1.8	2	29.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense	13	43% (112)	52% (5)	30.6	139.7	4.6	17 (81)	.21 (34)	3.26 (40)	74% (68)	9% (38)	0.9 (109)
TCU Defense	12	51% (76)	43% (70)	-	-	-	-	.16 (81)	3.16 (82)	78% (100)	8% (117)	1 (72)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense	13	46% (21)	43% (71)	-	-	-	-	.12 (58)	3 (50)	75% (82)	11% (54)	0.97 (51)
TCU Offense	12	42% (119)	49% (18)	33.8	154.5	4.6	19 (69)	.22 (29)	3.35 (23)	79% (26)	7% (6)	0.96 (93)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (10)	25.5	35.7	308.3	8.6	12.1	36 (5)	11 (68)	.47 (15)	1.6 (68)	29% (19)	41% (6)	.54 (13)	6% (69)	2 (103)
TCU Defense	12	49% (59)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.35 (106)	1.6 (86)	31% (95)	35% (122)	.37 (98)	5% (119)	2 (34)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense	13	53% (115)	41% (62)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.26 (57)	1.5 (48)	34% (38)	32% (95)	.25 (38)	6% (60)	2 (36)
TCU Offense	12	57% (16)	47% (20)	26.6	41.9	312.2	7.5	11.7	27 (25)	15 (116)	.4 (27)	1.6 (63)	31% (54)	42% (4)	.61 (6)	7% (94)	2 (73)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: -7.71 #90
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.72 #87
Arizona's Defense Rating: 14.40 #104
2024 Talent Rating: 335.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Arizona's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Arizona's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.8 #82
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: -7.71 TCU: 14.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: -2.8 TCU: 10.8

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 14.1 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 408.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Arizona's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 38
Arizona 19

Projected Total Points: 57

TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	TCU	49	Arizona	28	TCU -10.5	TCU	60.0	Over
2003	09/27	Arizona	10	TCU	13

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
TCU	2	1	1 Overs
Arizona	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#90) ARIZ at (#21) TCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARIZ	TCU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#90	#21
SP+SP+	#82	#25
Perf GradeGrade	#99	#32
OffenseOff	#82	#31
DefenseDef	#118	#55
Spec TeamsST	#53	#14
TalentTal	#62	#33
Blue ChipsBC%	#41	#38

Arizona Notes(12/13) Hired OC Seth Doege (Marsh/Purdue/USC)
(12/13) OC Babers lost playcalling in Nov/not renewed
(12/1) 1-7 finish, killed by ASU, Off was awful, Def worse
(11/25) Killed by TCU, Rgame/Def abysmal, Fifita meh
(11/18) Off the mat W vs Hou, stats even but forced 3 TOs
(11/2) 5 Straight L's, Off awful, Def awful. Sinking
(10/28) -6.25 pgg via TOs, bottom 10 in CFB thru 8 gms
(10/27) Four straight L's, Rgame awful, D bad vs WVU
(10/19) Unserious FB team. Just 245 yds vs Colorado?
(10/12) 4 TOs and bad defense = killed by BYU
(10/7) Scoring Opp Off/Def awful. 6 FG att @ TT (L)
(10/1) Great W (Utah), Rgame was good, Run D was great
Arizona Injury Report

TCU Notes(11/25) 2 str W's, Rgame good, Hoover good vs TCU
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
(7/30) Briles 2nd yr at OC, New DC Avalos (Boise HC)
TCU Injury Report

Arizona on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	TCU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#55
SuccessSuc	#6	#89
ExplosiveExp	#76	#89
PPAPPA	#10	#96
PowerPwr	#87	#53
SP+SP+	#90	#38
Pts POPPO	#29	#78
HavocHav	#44	#123

Arizona Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#92	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	#5	#70
Run ExplRExp	#109	#72
PPAExp	#34	#81
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	#40	#82
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#80
TackleTak	-	#22

Arizona Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#14
Pass SuccessPSuc	#10	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#68	#86
PPAExp	#15	#106
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#16	#124
F7 HavocF7	#38	#117
DB HavocDB	#69	#119

TCU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	ARIZ Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#31	#118
SuccessSuc	#16	#67
ExplosiveExp	#51	#58
PPAPPA	#25	#57
PowerPwr	#24	#104
SP+SP+	#19	#84
Pts POPPO	#69	#29
HavocHav	#19	#50

TCU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#97	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#18	#71
Run ExplRExp	#93	#51
PPAExp	#29	#58
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#50
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#37
TackleTak	-	#127

TCU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#62
Pass ExplPExl	#63	#48
PPAExp	#27	#57
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#51	#75
F7 HavocF7	#6	#54
DB HavocDB	#94	#60

Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
TCU -10.5 (60.0)
TCU won vs Arizona this year (49-28)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Arizona in 2024 (49-28)

ARIZ's OC Dino Babers (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	260	430	61%	2958	18	12	6.9
Cole Tannenbaum	1	5	20%	3	0	1	0.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quali Conley (Tr)	150	745	8	5.0	58
Kedrick Reescano (Tr)	78	359	1	4.6	56
Jacory Merritt	13	106	1	8.2	36
Kayden Luke	5	20	0	4.0	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	84	1319	8	15.7	78
Chris Hunter	35	323	3	9.2	45
Quali Conley (Tr)	39	245	1	6.3	16
Keyan Burnett	18	217	1	12.1	35

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Duane Akina (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dalton Johnson	78	5	0	0	2
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	0	6
Owen Goss (Tr)	49	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Smith (Tr)	48	7	5	2	0
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei	33	7	3	3	1
Chase Kennedy (Tr)	17	4	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	6
Tacario Davis	39	2	1	6
Emmanuel Karnley	14	0	0	5

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	313	471	67%	3949	27	11	8.4
Ken Seals (Tr)	10	13	77%	97	1	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Cook	119	460	9	3.9	19
Savion Williams	51	322	6	6.3	35
Jeremy Payne	54	239	3	4.4	32
Trent Battle	44	186	2	4.2	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Bech	62	1034	9	16.7	52
Eric McAlister (Tr)	39	762	5	19.5	84
John Paul Richardson	57	733	2	12.9	38
Savion Williams	60	611	6	10.2	75

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Hodges	89	5	1	2	0
Namdi Obiazor	81	7	3	2	1
Jamel Johnson	72	2	0	0	3
Bud Clark	68	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devean Deal (Tr)	46	10	6	3	1
Cooper McDonald (Tr)	25	5	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)	38	9	3	5	1
Zachary Chapman	24	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Lamareon James (Tr)	34	0	0	12
Abraham Camara	55	6	1	6
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)	12	0	0	4