TCU at SMU - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (5:00 PM EDT)
TCU -1 (58.5) (-115) Open: 0.0
SMU 66 - TCU: 42

Horned Frogs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 95.9° (36% Hum)
Wind: 15 MPH
SMU coming off BYE
TCU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: SMU -7.5 (SP+ SMU -7)
Projected Score: TCU: 25 - SMU: 33 (58)
TCU Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
TCU Travel: 35 miles

Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (44 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TCU Players
SMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

TCU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	TCU at Stanford	-8.0	58.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/7	TCU vs Long Island University	-45.5	56.5	W 45 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/14	TCU vs UCF	-1.5	61.5	L 34 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/21	TCU at SMU	-1.0	58.5	L 42 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/28	TCU vs Kansas	+1.5	58.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Fri 10/4	TCU vs Houston	-16.5	52.0	L 19 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	TCU at Utah	+3.0	52.0	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	TCU vs Texas Tech	-5.0	66.0	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	TCU at Baylor	+2.5	64.0	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/9	TCU vs Oklahoma State	-10.5	68.5	W 38 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	TCU vs Arizona	-10.5	60.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	TCU at Cincinnati	-2.5	58.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 12/28	TCU vs Louisiana	-9.5	61.0	W 34 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

SMU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	SMU at Nevada	-28.0	55.5	W 29 - 24	U	N
Sat 8/31	SMU vs Houston Christian	-32.5
Fri 9/6	SMU vs BYU	-12.5	55.5	L 15 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	SMU vs TCU	+1.0	58.5	W 66 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/28	SMU vs Florida State	-6.0	46.0	W 42 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/5	SMU at Louisville	+6.5	55.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	SMU at Stanford	-16.5	52.5	W 40 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	SMU at Duke	-11.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	SMU vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	55.5	W 48 - 25	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	SMU vs Boston College	-19.0	54.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/23	SMU at Virginia	-11.5	54.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/30	SMU vs California	-11.5	54.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/7	SMU vs Clemson	-2.5	56.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/21	SMU at Penn State	+9.0	52.5	L 10 - 38	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)	33.5	45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)	24.6	46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)	36.5	44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)	22.1	39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU	#18 (.3)	47% (20)		45% (53)	2.95 (85)	106	49% (9)	293	4.46 (20)	#82 (.19)	42% (67)		46% (102)	36% (18)	3.82 (72)	49.7	1.6	1.1
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)		44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)		39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Offense	13	33.5	28.6	47.1%	4.46	1.6	21	400	106	293	3.9	42%	58%	45%	49%	13%	.3
SMU Defense	14	22.1	20.3	36.7%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	39%	35%	18%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Defense	13	24.6	30	41.5%	3.82	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	46%	36%	14%	.19
SMU Offense	14	36.5	43.7	44.1%	4.41	1.7	23	432	169	263	4.4	51%	49%	44%	44%	15%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
TCU	13	26:11	21	44%	80%	5.2	49.7	1.6	1.1	4.5	1.8	1	31.7
SMU	14	28:28	22.6	44%	50%	8.1	77.7	1.7	1.6	6.6	3.1	3	31.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Offense	13	42% (119)	45% (53)	27.6	106.4	3.9	26 (36)	.08 (95)	2.95 (85)	73% (70)	8% (36)	0.94 (85)
SMU Defense	14	44% (9)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-.05 (2)	2.72 (25)	60% (10)	11% (36)	0.81 (6)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Defense	13	53% (95)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.22 (118)	3.26 (104)	89% (134)	9% (105)	1.02 (87)
SMU Offense	14	51% (65)	44% (62)	38.3	168.9	4.4	29 (18)	.12 (77)	2.97 (83)	70% (90)	9% (49)	0.93 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Offense	13	58% (19)	49% (9)	23.5	34.9	293.2	8.4	12.5	25 (31)	10 (63)	.47 (5)	1.6 (75)	31% (57)	33% (47)	.4 (39)	5% (38)	2.1 (55)
SMU Defense	14	55% (124)	35% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.11 (17)	1.7 (107)	37% (7)	27% (21)	.16 (12)	7% (30)	2.1 (96)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Defense	13	47% (41)	36% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.18 (40)	1.5 (57)	34% (42)	27% (19)	.19 (22)	6% (81)	1.8 (26)
SMU Offense	14	49% (70)	44% (45)	19.9	31.2	262.9	8.4	13.2	28 (15)	12 (85)	.37 (19)	1.8 (11)	33% (94)	34% (34)	.47 (17)	6% (69)	2.3 (13)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 12.40 #21
TCU's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
TCU's Defense Rating: 7.72 #53
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
TCU's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
TCU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #25
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #19
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #38

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 12.40 SMU: 19.045

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 10.8 SMU: 17.5

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 19.045 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

TCU Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

TCU's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 33
TCU 25

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 27
TCU 26

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
SMU 34
TCU 26

Total Points: 60

SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	TCU	35	SMU	24	TCU -6.5	TCU	63.5	Under
2024	09/21	SMU	66	TCU	42	TCU -1	SMU	58.5	Over
2023	09/23	TCU	34	SMU	17	TCU -7	TCU	63.5	Under
2022	09/24	SMU	34	TCU	42	TCU -2.5	TCU	72.0	Over
2021	09/25	TCU	34	SMU	42	TCU -8	SMU	66.0	Over
2019	09/21	TCU	38	SMU	41	TCU -7.5	SMU	54.5	Over
2018	09/07	SMU	12	TCU	42	TCU -23.5	TCU	59.5	Under
2017	09/16	TCU	56	SMU	36	TCU -22	SMU	64.5	Over
2016	09/23	SMU	3	TCU	33	TCU -24	TCU	68.0	Under
2015	09/19	TCU	56	SMU	37	TCU -38	SMU	68.5	Over
2014	09/27	SMU	0	TCU	56	TCU -31	TCU	0
2013	09/28	TCU	48	SMU	17	TCU -19.5	TCU	0
2012	09/29	SMU	16	TCU	24
2011	10/01	TCU	33	SMU	40
2010	09/24	SMU	24	TCU	41
2009	10/03	TCU	39	SMU	14
2008	09/20	SMU	7	TCU	48
2007	09/22	TCU	21	SMU	7
2005	09/10	SMU	21	TCU	10
2004	09/11	TCU	44	SMU	0
2003	11/29	SMU	13	TCU	20
2002	09/14	TCU	17	SMU	6
2001	09/08	SMU	10	TCU	38
2000	11/23	SMU	7	TCU	62

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
SMU	5	5	6 Overs
TCU	19	7	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 13	4 - 8	3 - 4	1 - 4
Road Teams	13 - 11	8 - 4	4 - 1	4 - 3

(#21) TCU at (#13) SMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TCU	SMU
Power RatePwr	#21	#13
SP+SP+	#25	#12
Perf GradeGrade	#32	#14
OffenseOff	#31	#30
DefenseDef	#55	#13
Spec TeamsST	#14	#84
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#47

TCU Notes(11/25) 2 str W's, Rgame good, Hoover good vs TCU
(11/13) Killed quit Pokes, Hoover good, Rgame good
(11/3) Even w/ Baylor, Hoover great, Def torched 500+
(10/28) -6.9 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 8 weeks
(10/27) QB Hoover torched T Tech, 3 TOs nearly cost them
(10/16) Into Utah wk, Dykes 5-8 in last 13 games
(10/4) Off good/Def bad. Red Zone awful hurts Overs
(9/28) Good W over KU, Hoover great, Pass Def great
(9/23) Rgame awful vs SMU, 2.0 ypc. Off 5 TOs
(8/31) Hoover is non-mobile JAG, run game poor vs Stan
(8/30) D moved to 4-2-5 then best NT portaled (OU)
(7/30) Briles 2nd yr at OC, New DC Avalos (Boise HC)
TCU Injury Report

SMU Injury Report

TCU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	SMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#31	#13
SuccessSuc	#20	#9
ExplosiveExp	#45	#69
PPAPPA	#18	#5
PowerPwr	#24	#5
SP+SP+	#19	#30
Pts POPPO	#20	#13
HavocHav	#28	#29

TCU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#97	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#35
Run ExplRExp	#85	#6
PPAExp	#95	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	#85	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#27
TackleTak	-	#43

TCU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#9	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#75	#107
PPAExp	#5	#17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#51	#15
F7 HavocF7	#36	#36
DB HavocDB	#38	#30

SMU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	TCU Def
Perf GradePerf	#30	#55
SuccessSuc	#53	#67
ExplosiveExp	#21	#52
PPAPPA	#38	#82
PowerPwr	#28	#53
SP+SP+	#5	#38
Pts POPPO	#25	#72
HavocHav	#46	#102

SMU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#74	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#102
Run ExplRExp	#86	#87
PPAExp	#77	#118
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	#83	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#57	#87
TackleTak	-	#22

SMU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#14
Pass SuccessPSuc	#45	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#57
PPAExp	#19	#40
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#33	#124
F7 HavocF7	#49	#105
DB HavocDB	#69	#81

Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 96° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 4
TCU 1.0 (58.5)
SMU won vs TCU this year (66-42)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat TCU last year (66-42)
TCU beat SMU in 2023 (34-17)
TCU beat SMU in 2022 (42-34)

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	313	471	67%	3949	27	11	8.4
Ken Seals (Tr)	10	13	77%	97	1	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Cook	119	460	9	3.9	19
Savion Williams	51	322	6	6.3	35
Jeremy Payne	54	239	3	4.4	32
Trent Battle	44	186	2	4.2	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Bech	62	1034	9	16.7	52
Eric McAlister (Tr)	39	762	5	19.5	84
John Paul Richardson	57	733	2	12.9	38
Savion Williams	60	611	6	10.2	75

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Hodges	89	5	1	2	0
Namdi Obiazor	81	7	3	2	1
Jamel Johnson	72	2	0	0	3
Bud Clark	68	0	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devean Deal (Tr)	46	10	6	3	1
Cooper McDonald (Tr)	25	5	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah (Tr)	38	9	3	5	1
Zachary Chapman	24	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Lamareon James (Tr)	34	0	0	12
Abraham Camara	55	6	1	6
Jevon McIver Jr. (Tr)	12	0	0	4

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	248	381	65%	3189	23	11	8.4
Preston Stone	30	51	59%	421	5	1	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)	234	1330	14	5.7	71
Kevin Jennings	101	354	5	3.5	59
LJ Johnson Jr.	74	303	5	4.1	35
Roderick Daniels	44	160	3	3.6	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roderick Daniels	42	601	4	14.3	81
Keyshawn Smith	33	527	5	16.0	45
Jordan Hudson	39	422	5	10.8	42
Kelvontay Dixon	21	386	1	18.4	87

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson	102	6	3	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	95	3	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker	88	8	1	4	3
Ahmaad Moses	64	6	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)	30	13	8	9	1
Isaiah Smith	31	9	7	6	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)	40	8	7	5	0
Elijah Roberts	32	10	7	10	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonathan McGill	52	2	1	6
Brandon Crossley	30	1	1	6
Deuce Harmon (Tr)	28	2	0	6