Colorado at UCF - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -12.5 (60.5) (-455) Open: -11.0
Colorado 48 - UCF: 21 (Big 12)

Buffaloes (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Deion Sanders (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (32 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Light Rain Predicted
UCF coming off BYE
COLO is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Colorado -6.5 (SP+ COLO -5.5)
Projected Score: COLO: 31 - UCF: 25 (56)
UCF Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
COLO Travel: 1576 miles, 2 hrs behind

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
COLO Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Colorado's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Colorado vs North Dakota State	-9.0	59.0	W 31 - 26	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado at Nebraska	+6.5	55.0	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado at Colorado State	-7.5	58.5	W 28 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Colorado vs Baylor	-2.5	52.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Colorado at UCF	+12.5	60.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Colorado vs Kansas State	+3.5	54.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado at Arizona	+2.5	57.5	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado vs Cincinnati	-6.0	57.0	W 34 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Colorado at Texas Tech	-5.0	62.0	W 41 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Colorado vs Utah	-13.5	43.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado vs Kansas	-2.5	59.0	L 21 - 37	U	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado vs Oklahoma State	-14.5	66.5	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/28	Colorado vs BYU	-3.0	55.5	L 14 - 36	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado's Schedule

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
COLO	#35 (.24)	44% (48)	32.9	44% (73)	2.76 (110)	66	45% (34)	302	4.34 (28)	#22 (.09)	38% (30)	23.1	40% (43)	36% (17)	3.3 (21)	62.8	0.9	1.8
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	30.4	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	26.9	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
COLO	#35 (.24)	44% (48)		44% (73)	2.76 (110)	66	45% (34)	302	4.34 (28)	#22 (.09)	38% (30)		40% (43)	36% (17)	3.3 (21)	62.8	0.9	1.8
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
COLO Offense	13	32.9	32.2	44.5%	4.34	0.9	20	368	66	302	2.7	37%	63%	44%	45%	17%	.24
UCF Defense	12	26.9	23	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
COLO Defense	13	23.1	18.4	38.4%	3.3	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	40%	36%	20%	.09
UCF Offense	12	30.4	32.9	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Colorado	13	26:03	19.7	41%	40%	7.1	62.8	0.9	1.8	6.7	2.8	2	31.4
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
COLO Offense	13	37% (133)	44% (73)	24.2	66	2.7	15 (96)	.08 (94)	2.76 (110)	82% (16)	11% (104)	0.86 (121)
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
COLO Defense	13	53% (93)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.06 (37)	2.87 (47)	78% (98)	12% (19)	1.06 (100)
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
COLO Offense	13	63% (2)	45% (34)	25.9	35.2	302	8.6	11.7	35 (3)	8 (40)	.34 (32)	1.6 (53)	33% (96)	35% (27)	.47 (18)	6% (78)	2.1 (54)
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
COLO Defense	13	47% (46)	36% (17)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.13 (24)	1.6 (61)	35% (25)	29% (50)	.24 (41)	8% (18)	1.9 (31)
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)

Colorado's Power Ratings
Colorado's Power Rating: 13.48 #18
Colorado's Offense Rating: 23.21 #36
Colorado's Defense Rating: 3.47 #15
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Colorado's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Colorado's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #39
Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #45

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado: 13.48 UCF: 4.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado: 8.1 UCF: 2.8

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.39 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Colorado Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.4

Colorado's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado 31
UCF 25

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
UCF 32
Colorado 17

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Colorado 29
UCF 26

Total Points: 55

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	UCF	21	Colorado	48	UCF -12.5	Colorado	60.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	0	0	1 Overs
Colorado	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#18) COLO at (#58) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	COLO	UCF
Power RatePwr	#18	#58
SP+SP+	#39	#61
Perf GradeGrade	#27	#54
OffenseOff	#26	#52
DefenseDef	#39	#47
Spec TeamsST	#87	#117
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#35

Colorado Notes(12/18) Signed QB Slater (Liberty)
(11/29) Killed Pokes, Sanders/Hunter great, Def great
(11/23) Run Def mauled by KU, 331, 5.8 ypc. Zero run game
(11/18) Run Def great vs Utah, Sanders great, B12 favs?
(11/13) Sanders great, Def so much better in TT W
(10/28) Buffs fav'd in last 4, can make B12 title game
(10/27) Def good vs Cincy. Quietly a good team? Strange
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 74% (#12), incredible
(10/19) Def held Az 245 yds, Rgame better. Contenders?
(10/14) #2 WR Horn left K St game (inj)
(10/13) Good fight KSt. Rgame -29 yds! Def was Ok
(10/13) Star WR/CB Hunter left K St game (inj)
Colorado Injury Report

UCF Notes(12/17) Hired Alex Grinch as DC? Why?
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost
(10/6) B2B L's (UF). Rgame shut down, Pass O/D awful
UCF Injury Report

Colorado on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#47
SuccessSuc	#48	#45
ExplosiveExp	#31	#95
PPAPPA	#35	#63
PowerPwr	#36	#67
SP+SP+	#27	#61
Pts POPPO	#28	#118
HavocHav	#97	#64

Colorado Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#98	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#73	#12
Run ExplRExp	#121	#90
PPAExp	#94	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#81	-
OL YdsOLY	#110	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#106	#17
TackleTak	-	#55

Colorado Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	COLO Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#3	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#64
PPAExp	#32	#81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#47	#65
F7 HavocF7	#104	#28
DB HavocDB	#78	#118

UCF on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	COLO Def
Perf GradePerf	#52	#39
SuccessSuc	#28	#30
ExplosiveExp	#73	#76
PPAPPA	#58	#22
PowerPwr	#64	#15
SP+SP+	#55	#45
Pts POPPO	#86	#21
HavocHav	#51	#13

UCF Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	COLO Def
Run GameRun	#15	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#43
Run ExplRExp	#11	#100
PPAExp	#7	#37
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#51
TackleTak	-	#72

UCF Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	COLO Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#17
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#61
PPAExp	#123	#24
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#17	#33
F7 HavocF7	#66	#19
DB HavocDB	#48	#18

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

COLO 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 84°( - Hum: 83%)
- Wind: 7 mph
Rain: 0.004

Rematch from Week 5
UCF -12.5 (60.5)
Colorado won at UCF this year (48-21)

Previous Matchups
Colorado beat UCF last year (48-21)

COLO's OC Pat Shurmur (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Shedeur Sanders	353	477	74%	4134	37	10	8.7
Ryan Staub	0	4	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Augustave (Tr)	85	384	4	4.5	37
Dallan Hayden (Tr)	64	196	1	3.1	27
Micah Welch	43	186	4	4.3	25
Charlie Offerdahl	26	119	1	4.6	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Travis Hunter	96	1258	15	13.1	58
LaJohntay Wester (Tr)	74	931	10	12.6	69
Will Sheppard (Tr)	48	621	6	12.9	47
Jimmy Horn Jr.	37	441	1	11.9	69

View Colorado's Full Roster

COLO's DC Robert Livingston (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig	86	10	2	4	3
Nikhai Hill-Green (Tr)	79	12	2	2	4
Shilo Sanders	64	3	1	0	2
Dylahn McKinney	59	3	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
B.J. Green II	32	12	8	5
Arden Walker	33	7	5	2
Taje Mccoy	24	4	4	2
Keaten Wade (Tr)	20	7	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Travis Hunter	35	1	0	11
Dylahn McKinney	59	3	0	8
Carter Stoutmire	42	1	2	7

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Addison Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2