Arizona at UCF - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -6.5 (55.0) (-225) Open: -4.0
UCF 56 - Arizona: 12 (Big 12)

Wildcats (4 - 8) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UCF 2nd straight Home Game
UCF is playing their 6th straight game
ARIZ is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: UCF -9.5 (SP+ UCF -6)
Projected Score: ARIZ: 22 - UCF: 31 (53)
UCF Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
ARIZ Travel: 1785 miles, 2 hrs behind

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARIZ Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona vs New Mexico	-28.0	60.0	W 61 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/7	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-43.0	65.0	W 22 - 10	U	N
Fri 9/13	Arizona at Kansas State	+7.0	58.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Arizona at Utah	+7.5	47.0	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Arizona vs Texas Tech	-6.0	64.0	L 22 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/12	Arizona at BYU	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/19	Arizona vs Colorado	-2.5	57.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/26	Arizona vs West Virginia	-5.5	51.5	L 26 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/2	Arizona at UCF	+6.5	55.0	L 12 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Arizona vs Houston	-1.0	46.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona at TCU	+10.5	60.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/30	Arizona vs Arizona State	+7.5	52.5	L 7 - 49	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ	#10 (.34)	51% (6)	31.5	52% (5)	3.26 (40)	140	50% (10)	308	4.42 (29)	#57 (.16)	42% (67)	19.3	43% (71)	41% (62)	3.37 (29)	53	1.1	1.4
UCF	#16 (.31)	45% (41)	24.3	47% (27)	3.28 (36)	228	43% (57)	259	3.76 (80)	#58 (.16)	47% (125)	23.6	51% (128)	43% (80)	3.79 (69)	50.1	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Offense	13	31.5	29.4	50.6%	4.42	1.1	23	448	140	308	4.6	43%	57%	52%	50%	14%	.34
UCF Defense	13	23.6	15.7	46.6%	3.79	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	51%	43%	12%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Defense	13	19.3	23.6	41.9%	3.37	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	41%	17%	.16
UCF Offense	13	24.3	32.6	44.9%	3.76	1.4	23	487	228	259	5.6	56%	43%	47%	43%	15%	.31

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona	13	30:50	23	49%	67%	6.3	53	1.1	1.4	5.3	2.4	1	29.9
UCF	13	28:52	23.1	49%	57%	6.1	50.1	1.4	1.2	4.2	1.7	0	26.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense	13	43% (112)	52% (5)	30.6	139.7	4.6	17 (81)	.21 (34)	3.26 (40)	74% (68)	9% (38)	0.9 (109)
UCF Defense	13	56% (121)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.23 (110)	3.39 (117)	81% (111)	7% (127)	0.99 (62)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense	13	46% (21)	43% (71)	-	-	-	-	.12 (58)	3 (50)	75% (82)	11% (54)	0.97 (51)
UCF Offense	13	56% (24)	47% (27)	40.7	228.2	5.6	28 (25)	.24 (19)	3.28 (36)	71% (93)	9% (48)	1.14 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (10)	25.5	35.7	308.3	8.6	12.1	36 (5)	11 (68)	.47 (15)	1.6 (68)	29% (19)	41% (6)	.54 (13)	6% (69)	2 (103)
UCF Defense	13	43% (11)	43% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.17 (17)	1.4 (4)	29% (120)	34% (113)	.23 (33)	5% (120)	1.7 (1)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense	13	53% (115)	41% (62)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.26 (57)	1.5 (48)	34% (38)	32% (95)	.25 (38)	6% (60)	2 (36)
UCF Offense	13	43% (111)	43% (57)	17.6	28.2	258.8	9.2	14.7	24 (41)	11 (68)	.48 (12)	1.9 (5)	30% (30)	37% (15)	.52 (17)	6% (51)	2.2 (27)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: -7.71 #90
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.72 #87
Arizona's Defense Rating: 14.40 #104
2024 Talent Rating: 335.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Arizona's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Arizona's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.8 #82
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: -7.71 UCF: 4.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: -2.8 UCF: 2.8

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.39 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 409.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Arizona's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 31
Arizona 22

Projected Total Points: 53

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	UCF	56	Arizona	12	UCF -6.5	UCF	55.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	1	1	1 Overs
Arizona	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#90) ARIZ at (#58) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARIZ	UCF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#90	#58
SP+SP+	#82	#61
Perf GradeGrade	#99	#54
OffenseOff	#82	#52
DefenseDef	#118	#47
Spec TeamsST	#53	#117
TalentTal	#62	#32
Blue ChipsBC%	#41	#35

Arizona Notes(12/13) Hired OC Seth Doege (Marsh/Purdue/USC)
(12/13) OC Babers lost playcalling in Nov/not renewed
(12/1) 1-7 finish, killed by ASU, Off was awful, Def worse
(11/25) Killed by TCU, Rgame/Def abysmal, Fifita meh
(11/18) Off the mat W vs Hou, stats even but forced 3 TOs
(11/2) 5 Straight L's, Off awful, Def awful. Sinking
(10/28) -6.25 pgg via TOs, bottom 10 in CFB thru 8 gms
(10/27) Four straight L's, Rgame awful, D bad vs WVU
(10/19) Unserious FB team. Just 245 yds vs Colorado?
(10/12) 4 TOs and bad defense = killed by BYU
(10/7) Scoring Opp Off/Def awful. 6 FG att @ TT (L)
(10/1) Great W (Utah), Rgame was good, Run D was great
Arizona Injury Report

UCF Notes(12/17) Hired Alex Grinch as DC? Why?
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost
(10/6) B2B L's (UF). Rgame shut down, Pass O/D awful
UCF Injury Report

Arizona on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	UCF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#47
SuccessSuc	#6	#125
ExplosiveExp	#76	#7
PPAPPA	#10	#58
PowerPwr	#87	#67
SP+SP+	#90	#61
Pts POPPO	#29	#69
HavocHav	#44	#128

Arizona Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#92	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#5	#128
Run ExplRExp	#109	#62
PPAExp	#34	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	#40	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#78
TackleTak	-	#55

Arizona Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#10	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#68	#4
PPAExp	#15	#17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#16	#65
F7 HavocF7	#38	#127
DB HavocDB	#69	#120

UCF on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	ARIZ Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#52	#118
SuccessSuc	#41	#67
ExplosiveExp	#3	#58
PPAPPA	#16	#57
PowerPwr	#64	#104
SP+SP+	#55	#84
Pts POPPO	#80	#29
HavocHav	#47	#50

UCF Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#15	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#71
Run ExplRExp	#10	#51
PPAExp	#19	#58
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#50
Stuff RateStuff	#102	#37
TackleTak	-	#127

UCF Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#62
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#48
PPAExp	#12	#57
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#17	#75
F7 HavocF7	#48	#54
DB HavocDB	#51	#60

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
UCF -6.5 (55.0)
UCF won vs Arizona this year (56-12)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat Arizona in 2024 (56-12)

ARIZ's OC Dino Babers (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	260	430	61%	2958	18	12	6.9
Cole Tannenbaum	1	5	20%	3	0	1	0.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quali Conley (Tr)	150	745	8	5.0	58
Kedrick Reescano (Tr)	78	359	1	4.6	56
Jacory Merritt	13	106	1	8.2	36
Kayden Luke	5	20	0	4.0	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	84	1319	8	15.7	78
Chris Hunter	35	323	3	9.2	45
Quali Conley (Tr)	39	245	1	6.3	16
Keyan Burnett	18	217	1	12.1	35

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Duane Akina (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dalton Johnson	78	5	0	0	2
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	0	6
Owen Goss (Tr)	49	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Smith (Tr)	48	7	5	2	0
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei	33	7	3	3	1
Chase Kennedy (Tr)	17	4	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	6
Tacario Davis	39	2	1	6
Emmanuel Karnley	14	0	0	5

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Ted Roof (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2