Cincinnati at UCF - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -2 (58.0) (-125) Open: -7.5
Cincinnati 19 - UCF: 13 (Big 12)

Bearcats (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Scott Satterfield (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (31 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CIN coming off BYE
Our Line: UCF -3.5 (SP+ UCF -3)
Projected Score: CIN: 27 - UCF: 30 (57)
UCF Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
CIN Travel: 752 miles

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CIN Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Cincinnati vs Towson	-33.5	56.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/7	Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	62.5	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Cincinnati at Miami (OH)	-3.5	47.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Cincinnati vs Houston	-4.0	47.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Cincinnati at Texas Tech	+3.0	60.0	L 41 - 44	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Cincinnati at UCF	+2.0	58.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Cincinnati vs Arizona State	-5.5	51.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Cincinnati at Colorado	+6.0	57.0	L 23 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Cincinnati vs West Virginia	-5.5	54.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/16	Cincinnati at Iowa State	+7.0	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/23	Cincinnati at Kansas State	+7.5	54.5	L 15 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	Cincinnati vs TCU	+2.5	58.5	L 13 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CIN	#63 (.2)	43% (51)	30.3	46% (40)	3.36 (18)	217	41% (73)	209	3.91 (68)	#129 (.32)	41% (56)	25.6	42% (56)	41% (66)	4.03 (89)	52.6	1.4	1.1
UCF	#16 (.31)	45% (41)	24.3	47% (27)	3.28 (36)	228	43% (57)	259	3.76 (80)	#58 (.16)	47% (125)	23.6	51% (128)	43% (80)	3.79 (69)	50.1	1.4	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CIN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CIN Offense	12	30.3	30.8	43.4%	3.91	1.4	22	426	217	209	5	56%	43%	46%	41%	15%	.2
UCF Defense	13	23.6	15.7	46.6%	3.79	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	51%	43%	12%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CIN Defense	12	25.6	35.3	41.2%	4.03	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	42%	41%	19%	.32
UCF Offense	13	24.3	32.6	44.9%	3.76	1.4	23	487	228	259	5.6	56%	43%	47%	43%	15%	.31

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Cincinnati	12	31:58	22.3	42%	45%	5.7	52.6	1.4	1.1	5.7	1.5	0	25.8
UCF	13	28:52	23.1	49%	57%	6.1	50.1	1.4	1.2	4.2	1.7	0	26.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CIN Offense	12	56% (26)	46% (40)	43.1	217.1	5	14 (106)	.24 (24)	3.36 (18)	63% (124)	10% (60)	1.08 (26)
UCF Defense	13	56% (121)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.23 (110)	3.39 (117)	81% (111)	7% (127)	0.99 (62)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CIN Defense	12	50% (68)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.26 (125)	2.99 (47)	75% (82)	12% (25)	1.38 (133)
UCF Offense	13	56% (24)	47% (27)	40.7	228.2	5.6	28 (25)	.24 (19)	3.28 (36)	71% (93)	9% (48)	1.14 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CIN Offense	12	43% (108)	41% (73)	18.2	30	209	7	11.5	21 (65)	11 (68)	.2 (93)	1.5 (94)	30% (35)	34% (41)	.46 (30)	5% (45)	2.1 (61)
UCF Defense	13	43% (11)	43% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.17 (17)	1.4 (4)	29% (120)	34% (113)	.23 (33)	5% (120)	1.7 (1)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CIN Defense	12	49% (66)	41% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.41 (121)	1.8 (120)	35% (26)	34% (118)	.42 (115)	7% (34)	2 (42)
UCF Offense	13	43% (111)	43% (57)	17.6	28.2	258.8	9.2	14.7	24 (41)	11 (68)	.48 (12)	1.9 (5)	30% (30)	37% (15)	.52 (17)	6% (51)	2.2 (27)

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 1.93 #56
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.64 #44
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 11.67 #85
2024 Talent Rating: 364.00 #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Cincinnati's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Cincinnati's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.1 #72
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: 1.93 UCF: 4.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: -0.1 UCF: 2.8

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.39 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 409.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Cincinnati's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 30
Cincinnati 27

Projected Total Points: 57

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Cincinnati	20	UCF	11	Cincinnati -10	UCF	55.5	Under
2024	10/12	UCF	13	Cincinnati	19	UCF -2	Cincinnati	58.0	Under
2023	11/04	Cincinnati	26	UCF	28	UCF -3.5	Cincinnati	59.5	Under
2022	10/29	UCF	25	Cincinnati	21	UCF -1.5	UCF	55.5	Under
2021	10/16	Cincinnati	56	UCF	21	Cincinnati -21.5	Cincinnati	56.0	Over
2020	11/21	UCF	33	Cincinnati	36	Cincinnati -4.5	UCF	66.0	Over
2019	10/04	Cincinnati	27	UCF	24	UCF -3.5	Cincinnati	64.0	Under
2018	11/17	UCF	38	Cincinnati	13	UCF -7.5	UCF	60.0	Under
2017	10/07	Cincinnati	23	UCF	51	UCF -15	UCF	52.5	Over
2016	11/12	UCF	24	Cincinnati	3	UCF -10	UCF	55.0	Under
2015	10/31	Cincinnati	52	UCF	7	Cincinnati -20.5	Cincinnati	61.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	5	6	3 Overs
Cincinnati	6	5	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	8 - 3	5 - 2	3 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	3 - 8	1 - 3	2 - 5

(#56) CIN at (#58) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CIN	UCF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#56	#58
SP+SP+	#72	#61
Perf GradeGrade	#70	#54
OffenseOff	#56	#52
DefenseDef	#69	#47
Spec TeamsST	#90	#117
TalentTal	#55	#32
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#35

Cincinnati Notes(11/25) 4 str L's, down 27-3 at H, Def killed by K St
(11/18) 3 str L's, Sorsby awful pass, good run, Rgame good
(11/13) 2 awful L's, outplayed WVU, 3 TO's cost, fading
(10/27) Big L vs Buffs, Off bad, 3-10 on 3rd, 9 flags
(10/19) Sorsby, Rgame enough vs ASU. Def held 4 big W
(10/12) Sorsby meh, Rgame awful, Def Ok in W (UCF)
(9/26) QB Sorsby a revelation. Top 3 QB in B12
(9/15) Pass heavy team, awful Red Zone, Def Rzone good
(9/8) Gagged vs Pitt. Had 36+ mins Off but Def torched
(9/1) Def gave up 438 yds to Towson? Rgame good
(8/3) New DC Fuqua will run 3-3-5, DT loss huge
(7/30) All B12 DT Corleone out indefintely (7/3)
Cincinnati Injury Report

UCF Notes(12/17) Hired Alex Grinch as DC? Why?
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost
(10/6) B2B L's (UF). Rgame shut down, Pass O/D awful
UCF Injury Report

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	UCF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#56	#47
SuccessSuc	#51	#125
ExplosiveExp	#85	#7
PPAPPA	#63	#58
PowerPwr	#44	#67
SP+SP+	#79	#61
Pts POPPO	#68	#69
HavocHav	#58	#128

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#34	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#128
Run ExplRExp	#26	#62
PPAExp	#24	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#41	#78
TackleTak	-	#55

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#73	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#94	#4
PPAExp	#93	#17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#65
F7 HavocF7	#60	#127
DB HavocDB	#45	#120

UCF on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	CIN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#52	#69
SuccessSuc	#41	#56
ExplosiveExp	#3	#132
PPAPPA	#16	#129
PowerPwr	#64	#85
SP+SP+	#55	#57
Pts POPPO	#80	#89
HavocHav	#47	#20

UCF Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#15	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#56
Run ExplRExp	#10	#133
PPAExp	#19	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#102	#5
TackleTak	-	#69

UCF Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#66
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#120
PPAExp	#12	#121
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#17	#111
F7 HavocF7	#48	#25
DB HavocDB	#51	#34

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
UCF -2.0 (58.0)
Cincinnati won at UCF this year (19-13)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat UCF last year (20-11)
Cincinnati beat UCF in 2024 (19-13)
UCF beat Cincinnati in 2023 (28-26)

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	249	389	64%	2813	18	7	7.2
Brady Lichtenberg	3	5	60%	25	0	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Kiner	204	1153	4	5.7	46
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	106	445	9	4.2	41
Evan Pryor (Tr)	56	418	6	7.5	65
Chance Williams (Tr)	15	67	0	4.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xzavier Henderson	58	735	4	12.7	42
Joe Royer (Tr)	51	532	3	10.4	38
Tony Johnson (Tr)	49	452	6	9.2	23
Jamoi Mayes	29	349	1	12.0	52

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Nate Fuqua (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Jake Golday (Tr)	57	7	1	0	2
Antwan Peek Jr.	54	1	0	0	1
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Eric Phillips	19	5	3	6	0
Dontay Corleone	26	5	3	4	0
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jordan Young	35	1	5
Derrick Canteen (Tr)	44	3	5
Josh Minkins (Tr)	45	2	4

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Ted Roof (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2