Utah at UCF - 2024 Matchup Preview
Utah logo (#16)Utah Utes at UCF KnightsUCF logo
Friday, November 29th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
UCF -9.5 (45.5) (-360)  Open: -9.0 | 49.5
Utah 28 - UCF: 14  (Big 12)

 
Utes (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kyle Whittingham (162 - 79)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (24 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
UTAH is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Utah -1   (SP+ UTAH -5)

Projected Score: UTAH: 25 - UCF: 24 (48)
UCF Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
UTAH Travel: 1920 miles, 2 hrs behind
Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Utah's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Utah vs Southern Utah-37.555.5W 49 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Utah vs Baylor-14.552.5W 23 - 12UN
Sat 9/14 Utah at Utah State-20.543.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Utah at Oklahoma State-1.053.5W 22 - 19UY
Sat 9/28 Utah vs Arizona-7.547.0L 10 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/11 Utah at Arizona State-6.046.5L 19 - 27UN
Sat 10/19 Utah vs TCU-3.052.0L 7 - 13UN
Sat 10/26 Utah at Houston-4.536.0L 14 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Utah vs BYU+3.540.5L 21 - 22OY
Sat 11/16 Utah at Colorado+13.543.5L 24 - 49ON
Sat 11/23 Utah vs Iowa State+6.542.5L 28 - 31OY
Fri 11/29 Utah at UCF+9.545.5W 28 - 14UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah's Schedule
UCF's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 UCF vs New Hampshire-38.558.5W 57 - 3OY
Sat 9/7 UCF vs Sam Houston-21.553.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 9/14 UCF at TCU+1.561.5W 35 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 UCF vs Colorado-12.560.5L 21 - 48ON
Sat 10/5 UCF at Florida-1.062.0L 13 - 24UN
Sat 10/12 UCF vs Cincinnati-2.058.0L 13 - 19UN
Sat 10/19 UCF at Iowa State+13.049.5L 35 - 38OY
Sat 10/26 UCF vs BYU-2.553.5L 24 - 37ON
Sat 11/2 UCF vs Arizona-6.555.0W 56 - 12OY
Sat 11/9 UCF at Arizona State+2.555.5L 31 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 UCF at West Virginia-3.060.0L 21 - 31UN
Fri 11/29 UCF vs Utah-9.545.5L 14 - 28UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTAH#120 (.08)37% (125)23.638% (116)2.73 (114)13035% (119)1993.4 (111)#7 (.05)35% (4)20.737% (10)34% (6)3.13 (15)46.31.81.5
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)30.452% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)26.937% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTAH#120 (.08)37% (125)38% (116)2.73 (114)13035% (119)1993.4 (111)#7 (.05)35% (4)37% (10)34% (6)3.13 (15)46.31.81.5
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTAH Offense1223.624.236.7%3.41.8173301301993.949%51%38%35%19%.08
UCF Defense1226.92339.9%4.370.9 - - - - - 50%50%37%42%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTAH Defense1220.724.535.3%3.131.5 - - - - - 48%51%37%34%20%.05
UCF Offense1230.432.946.1%3.751.6244482482005.858%41%52%38%15%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah1232:0616.633%45%5.446.31.81.56.41.9430.7
UCF1228:1923.642%54%6.554.41.60.96.91.8130.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTAH Offense1249% (76)38% (116)33.6130.43.97 (131) (123)2.73 (114)66% (113)12% (117)0.88 (111)
UCF Defense1250% (54)37% (12) - - - - .07 (39)2.57 (13)79% (106)12% (28)1.03 (90)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTAH Defense1248% (41)37% (10) - - - - .04 (25)2.53 (9)64% (22)12% (34)1.07 (105)
UCF Offense1258% (16)52% (8)43248.15.833 (12).31 (7)3.62 (2)72% (80)10% (66)1.13 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTAH Offense1251% (58)35% (119)16.629.8199.46.71220 (58)17 (127).16 (106)1.7 (23)36% (127)24% (127).2 (110)7% (107)2.2 (22)
UCF Defense1250% (82)42% (84) - - - - - - 9 (76).26 (81)1.6 (64)36% (16)30% (67).38 (99)5% (118)2.2 (117)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTAH Defense1251% (92)34% (6) - - - - - - 12 (39).09 (15)1.6 (74)37% (4)25% (8).09 (1)8% (4)2 (59)
UCF Offense1241% (121)38% (103)15.125.8199.77.713.214 (108)11 (72).1 (123)1.6 (76)29% (33)33% (53).16 (122)5% (48)1.8 (126)

Utah's Power Ratings
Utah's Power Rating: 3.37 #48
Utah's Offense Rating: 10.54 #127
Utah's Defense Rating: 1.59 #8
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 22% #25
Utah's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Utah's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.7 #40
Utah's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #96
Utah's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #16

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah: 3.37   UCF: 4.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah: 7.7   UCF: 2.8




UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.39 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Utah Scoring
Offense: 23.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.2
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.5

Utah's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Utah 25
UCF 24


Total Points: 48

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/29UCF14Utah28UtahUCF -9.5Utah45.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCF000 Overs
Utah111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#48) Utah Info
Power Rating: 3.37 #48
Offense Rating: 10.54 #127
Defense Rating: 1.59 #8
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.7 #40
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.6 #96
Defense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #16
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 22% #25
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 35%
Great in Scoring Position 3.13 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Utah has lost 7 straight
Utah has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 3 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

Utah Notes
(11/24) Fight w/ ISU, OG'd by 180+, pick 6, PR TD
(11/24) Only 9 1st D, 3-10 on 3rd, Rgame/Wilson bad
(11/18) Wilson better but 3 INTs, Pass D torched by Buffs
(11/13) Fr QB Rose out for season, only Wilson left
(11/10) TE Kuithe lost for season (inj vs BYU)
(10/31) QB Wilson split reps w/ So. Rose for being awful
(10/27) Off still awful, BAD L vs Houston, Run D mauled
(10/21) 3 bad L's, Avg'd 12 PPG. Def is great, Off is poor
(10/21) New OC Bajakian led awful NW Off, < 120 ypp
(10/20) OC Ludwig steps down, near last Off 2 yrs

Utah Highlights
Utah has a really good defense (#14)
Utah defense is really good in red zone (#41)
Utah has a good run defense (#19)
Utah has a good pass defense (#16)
Utah Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#16)
Utah Defensive Line is very good (#43)
Utah Secondary is very good (#34)

Utah Deficiencies
Utah has a bad TO Margin (#11)
Utah Can Not Run the Ball (#14)
Utah throws a Lot of Interceptions (#1)
Utah offense is really bad (#8)
Utah Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#12)
Utah offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#45)
Utah run game is really bad (#5)
Utah pass game is really bad (#19)
Utah offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Utah gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#62)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUCFUTAH
OverallOver#38#54
OffenseOff#45#79
DefenseDef#35#38
Special TeamsST#94#27
PassingPass#95#106
RushingRush#13#91
Run BlockRBLK#30#13
Pass BlockPBLK#17#47
Route RunningWR Rt#74#70
TacklingTkl#50#113
Run DefenseR Def#30#40
Pass Rush DefPRush#57#71
Coverage DefCov#54#34

Rematch from Week 14
UCF -9.5 (45.5)
Utah won at UCF this year (28-14)

Previous Matchups
Utah beat UCF last year (28-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UTAH | UCF
Depth Chart: UTAH | UCF
Rosters: UTAH | UCF
(#58) UCF Info
Power Rating: 4.39 #58
Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.37 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

UCF has lost 2 straight
UCF has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 4 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

UCF Notes
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost

UCF Highlights
UCF has Really Good Running Game (#68)
UCF offense is efficent (#90)
UCF has a top Offensive Line (#111)
UCF does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#108)

UCF has a good run defense (#70)
UCF Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#34)
UCF Defensive Line is very good (#59)
UCF Front 7 is disruptive (#12)

UCF Deficiencies
UCF pass game is really bad (#68)
UCF has a bad red zone defense (#18)


  
Utah's OC Mike Bajakian (Int)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Isaac Wilson12722556%151010116.7
Cameron Rising346652%555738.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Bernard197100945.164
Mike Mitchell4715813.418
Dijon Stanley206603.314
Brandon Rose116606.027
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dorian Singer (Tr)53702113.240
Brant Kuithe35505614.471
Money Parks21294314.071
Dijon Stanley7166223.779

View Utah's Full Roster
Utah's DC Morgan Scalley
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lander Barton725214
Tao Johnson702004
Karene Reid546311
Smith Snowden484008
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Van Fillinger438515
Karene Reid546311
Logan Fano357341
Connor O'Toole225300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cameron Calhoun (Tr)211009
Smith Snowden484008
Van Fillinger438515

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Rizk7311862%915527.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)6410859%1012749.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
RJ Harvey2321577226.880
Jacurri Brown (Tr)5340147.667
Myles Montgomery (Tr)5129335.725
Peny Boone (Tr)3420826.159
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kobe Hudson47770416.453
Randy Pittman32416213.048
Jacoby Jones (Tr)22327214.940
RJ Harvey20267313.475

View UCF's Full Roster
UCF's DC Addison Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Barr723022
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)686032
Quadric Bullard613112
Deshawn Pace (Tr)614001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)5310611
Malachi Lawrence156541
Daylan Dotson (Tr)3110451
Ricky Barber345380
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antoine Jackson131003
Braeden Marshall223003
Ethan Barr723022