UCF at West Virginia - 2024 Matchup Preview

UCF Knights at West Virginia Mountaineers

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
UCF -3 (60.0) (-148) Open: -2.5
West Virginia 31 - UCF: 21 (Big 12)

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WVU 2nd straight Home Game
UCF coming off BYE
Our Line: West Virginia -1.5 (SP+ UCF -0.5)
Projected Score: UCF: 30 - WVU: 32 (62)
UCF Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
UCF Travel: 766 miles

Mountaineers (6 - 7) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Neal Brown (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 32 (28 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
WVU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

West Virginia's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	West Virginia vs Penn State	+7.5	48.0	L 12 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/7	West Virginia vs UAlbany	-38.5	53.5	W 49 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/14	West Virginia at Pittsburgh	-2.5	60.5	L 34 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/21	West Virginia vs Kansas	-1.5	56.0	W 32 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	West Virginia at Oklahoma State	+2.5	65.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/12	West Virginia vs Iowa State	+3.0	54.0	L 16 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/19	West Virginia vs Kansas State	+2.5	56.5	L 18 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/26	West Virginia at Arizona	+5.5	51.5	W 31 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	West Virginia at Cincinnati	+5.5	54.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/16	West Virginia vs Baylor	+2.0	60.0	L 35 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/23	West Virginia vs UCF	+3.0	60.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	West Virginia at Texas Tech	+2.5	61.5	L 15 - 52	O	N
Tue 12/17	West Virginia vs Memphis	+5.0	60.0	L 37 - 42	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	30.4	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	26.9	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
WVU	#63 (.2)	43% (69)	29.2	44% (75)	3.05 (64)	196	41% (73)	210	4.6 (16)	#124 (.3)	45% (103)	31.9	41% (46)	49% (128)	4.74 (131)	33.9	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
WVU	#63 (.2)	43% (69)		44% (75)	3.05 (64)	196	41% (73)	210	4.6 (16)	#124 (.3)	45% (103)		41% (46)	49% (128)	4.74 (131)	33.9	1.5	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	12	30.4	27	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21
WVU Defense	13	31.9	31.3	44.8%	4.74	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	49%	13%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	12	26.9	32.4	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16
WVU Offense	13	29.2	27.6	42.5%	4.6	1.5	23	406	196	210	4.9	56%	44%	44%	41%	16%	.2

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6
West Virginia	13	31:36	22.6	42%	62%	4.3	33.9	1.5	1.1	4.8	1.5	1	28.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)
WVU Defense	13	51% (68)	41% (46)	-	-	-	-	.08 (46)	2.83 (41)	64% (21)	9% (97)	1.02 (86)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)
WVU Offense	13	56% (28)	44% (75)	40.1	196	4.9	27 (30)	.16 (52)	3.05 (64)	78% (33)	10% (82)	1.07 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)
WVU Defense	13	49% (68)	49% (128)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.53 (133)	1.8 (127)	31% (84)	38% (128)	.61 (133)	4% (126)	2.3 (123)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)
WVU Offense	13	44% (107)	41% (73)	17.4	28.6	210.3	7.4	12.1	20 (58)	14 (115)	.26 (65)	1.8 (16)	34% (117)	32% (63)	.37 (52)	6% (75)	2.3 (8)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.98 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 0.98 West Virginia: 3.57

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 2.8 West Virginia: 2.1

West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: 3.57 #63
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 23.43 #32
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 16.47 #118
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
West Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
West Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.1 #65
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #46
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #87

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.4

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
West Virginia 32
UCF 30

Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
UCF 38
West Virginia 31

Total Points: 69

Based on Entire Season
UCF 30
West Virginia 29

Total Points: 59

West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 29.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

West Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	UCF	45	West Virginia	13	UCF -6.5	UCF	46.5	Over
2024	11/23	West Virginia	31	UCF	21	UCF -3	West Virginia	60.0	Under
2023	10/28	UCF	28	West Virginia	41	UCF -6.5	West Virginia	59.5	Over
2004	09/11	UCF	20	West Virginia	45
2003	11/01	West Virginia	36	UCF	18

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
West Virginia	4	2	2 Overs
UCF	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1

(#58) UCF at (#63) WVU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	WVU
Power RatePwr	#58	#63
SP+SP+	#61	#65
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#70
OffenseOff	#52	#35
DefenseDef	#47	#114
Spec TeamsST	#117	#20
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#62

UCF Notes(12/17) Hired Alex Grinch as DC? Why?
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost
(10/6) B2B L's (UF). Rgame shut down, Pass O/D awful
UCF Injury Report

West Virginia Notes(12/29) Hired DC Z Alley (Okl, Jax St DC)
(12/11) Hired HC Rodriguez (Former HC, Jax St 3 yrs)
(12/1) HC Brown fired after 37-35 in 6 years
(11/23) Rgame 200 yds, 3.7 ypc, Greene meh in UCF W
(11/18) Bad L vs Baylor, Def torched, QB Green was bad
(11/16) QB Greene back for Baylor, Marchiol was better
(11/13) 2 cons road W's, lucky vs Cincy, OG's by 180 yds
(11/7) QB change: Marchiol takes over for Greene full time
(10/29) DC Lesley fired, LB/ST Koonz will take over
(10/27) QB Marhiol good vs Az, 18/22, 2 TDs. Rgame good
(10/19) Killed by K St pass game (300 yds)? Bad team
(10/13) Even w/ ISU, 3 TO's, Greene just not good enough
West Virginia Injury Report

UCF on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	WVU Def
Perf GradePerf	#52	#114
SuccessSuc	#28	#103
ExplosiveExp	#73	#128
PPAPPA	#58	#124
PowerPwr	#64	#118
SP+SP+	#55	#87
Pts POPPO	#86	#131
HavocHav	#51	#119

UCF Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	WVU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#48
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#46
Run ExplRExp	#11	#86
PPAExp	#7	#46
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#53
TackleTak	-	#11

UCF Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	WVU Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#132
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#128
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#127
PPAExp	#123	#133
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#17	#102
F7 HavocF7	#66	#97
DB HavocDB	#48	#126

West Virginia on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	WVU Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#35	#47
SuccessSuc	#69	#45
ExplosiveExp	#13	#95
PPAPPA	#63	#63
PowerPwr	#32	#67
SP+SP+	#46	#61
Pts POPPO	#16	#118
HavocHav	#79	#64

West Virginia Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	WVU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#66	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#75	#12
Run ExplRExp	#35	#90
PPAExp	#52	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#9	-
OL YdsOLY	#64	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#74	#17
TackleTak	-	#55

West Virginia Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	WVU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#74	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#73	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#16	#64
PPAExp	#65	#81
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#11	#65
F7 HavocF7	#82	#28
DB HavocDB	#75	#118

Program Comparison
WVU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 43° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 13
UCF 3.0 (60.0)
West Virginia won vs UCF this year (31-21)

Previous Matchups
West Virginia beat UCF last year (31-21)
West Virginia beat UCF in 2023 (41-28)

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Addison Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2

WVU's OC Chad Scott (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Garrett Greene	189	316	60%	2300	15	12	7.3
Nicco Marchiol	37	56	66%	434	5	2	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jahiem White	149	845	7	5.7	55
Garrett Greene	133	751	6	5.6	56
CJ Donaldson	163	734	11	4.5	48
Nicco Marchiol	40	120	2	3.0	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hudson Clement	51	741	5	14.5	44
Kole Taylor	43	448	3	10.4	39
Traylon Ray	28	426	4	15.2	54
Rodney Gallagher	26	288	3	11.1	33

View West Virginia's Full Roster

WVU's DC Jeff Koonz (Int) (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Wilson	102	0	0	0	3
Josiah Trotter	93	4	1	5	2
Trey Lathan	79	9	2	3	0
Tyrin Bradley	56	8	2	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Jackson (Tr)	40	14	7	1	0
Sean Martin	23	6	4	5	1
Hammond Russell IV	17	4	3	3	0
Trey Lathan	79	9	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garnett Hollis Jr. (Tr)	46	1	0	0	6
Tyrin Bradley	56	8	2	2	4
Anthony Wilson	102	0	0	0	3