BYU at UCF Game Matchup
BYU logo BYU Cougars at UCF KnightsUCF logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -2.5 (53.5) (105)  Open: -1.0 | 54.5
BYU 37 - UCF: 24  (Big 12)

 
Cougars (11 - 2) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (61 - 41)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
UCF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: BYU -8.5   (SP+ BYU -12.5)

Projected Score: BYU: 31 - UCF: 22 (54)
UCF Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BYU Travel: 1901 miles, 2 hrs behind
Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
BYU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 BYU vs Southern Illinois-31
Fri 9/6 BYU at SMU+12.555.5W 18 - 15UY
Sat 9/14 BYU at Wyoming-9.540.5W 34 - 14OY
Sat 9/21 BYU vs Kansas State+7.549.5W 38 - 9UY
Sat 9/28 BYU at Baylor+3.047.0W 34 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 BYU vs Arizona-3.048.5W 41 - 19OY
Fri 10/18 BYU vs Oklahoma State-8.553.0W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/26 BYU at UCF+2.553.5W 37 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 BYU at Utah-3.540.5W 22 - 21ON
Sat 11/16 BYU vs Kansas-3.055.5L 13 - 17UN
Sat 11/23 BYU at Arizona State+3.549.0L 23 - 28ON
Sat 11/30 BYU vs Houston-9.539.5W 30 - 18OY
Sat 12/28 BYU vs Colorado+3.055.5W 36 - 14UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for BYU's Schedule
UCF's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 UCF vs New Hampshire-38.558.5W 57 - 3OY
Sat 9/7 UCF vs Sam Houston-21.553.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 9/14 UCF at TCU+1.561.5W 35 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 UCF vs Colorado-12.560.5L 21 - 48ON
Sat 10/5 UCF at Florida-1.062.0L 13 - 24UN
Sat 10/12 UCF vs Cincinnati-2.058.0L 13 - 19UN
Sat 10/19 UCF at Iowa State+13.049.5L 35 - 38OY
Sat 10/26 UCF vs BYU-2.553.5L 24 - 37ON
Sat 11/2 UCF vs Arizona-6.555.0W 56 - 12OY
Sat 11/9 UCF at Arizona State+2.555.5L 31 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 UCF at West Virginia-3.060.0L 21 - 31UN
Fri 11/29 UCF vs Utah-9.545.5L 14 - 28UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU#120 (.08)36% (125)31.237% (126)2.97 (94)10436% (115)2053.96 (61)#88 (.21)44% (97)19.644% (75)45% (117)3.59 (50)431.61.7
UCF#16 (.31)45% (41)30.447% (27)3.28 (36)22843% (57)2593.76 (80)#58 (.16)47% (125)26.951% (128)43% (80)3.79 (69)50.11.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BYU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Offense1231.22835.9%3.961.6173101042053.545%54%37%36%21%.08
UCF Defense1326.92346.6%3.791.2 - - - - - 56%43%51%43%12%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BYU Defense1219.621.744%3.591.7 - - - - - 49%50%44%45%15%.21
UCF Offense1330.432.944.9%3.761.4234872282595.656%43%47%43%15%.31

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
BYU1228:1916.829%50%5.3431.61.74.20.9229.3
UCF1328:5223.149%57%6.150.11.41.24.21.7026.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Offense1245% (101)37% (126)30104.33.515 (100).06 (115)2.97 (94)76% (49)12% (120)1.05 (42)
UCF Defense1356% (121)51% (128) - - - - .23 (110)3.39 (117)81% (111)7% (127)0.99 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BYU Defense1249% (57)44% (75) - - - - .19 (96)3.35 (114)66% (28)8% (124)1 (70)
UCF Offense1356% (24)47% (27)40.7228.25.628 (25).24 (19)3.28 (36)71% (93)9% (48)1.14 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Offense1254% (30)36% (115)18.333205.46.211.217 (85)9 (40).13 (118)1.7 (45)36% (128)23% (126).13 (123)8% (127)2.2 (29)
UCF Defense1343% (11)43% (80) - - - - - - 12 (37).17 (17)1.4 (4)29% (120)34% (113).23 (33)5% (120)1.7 (1)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BYU Defense1250% (75)45% (117) - - - - - - 14 (21).29 (81)1.5 (44)32% (56)37% (127).56 (131)7% (39)2 (43)
UCF Offense1343% (111)43% (57)17.628.2258.89.214.724 (41)11 (68).48 (12)1.9 (5)30% (30)37% (15).52 (17)6% (51)2.2 (27)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 10.80 #28
BYU's Offense Rating: 20.40 #63
BYU's Defense Rating: 6.88 #42
2024 Talent Rating: 624.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
BYU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
BYU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.3 #17
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #36
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #21

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 10.80   UCF: 4.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 15.3   UCF: 2.8




UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.39 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 796.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 28
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

BYU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
BYU 31
UCF 22


Projected Total Points: 54
UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26UCF24BYU37BYUUCF -2.5BYU53.5Over
202012/22BYU49UCF23BYUBYU -6BYU80.0Under
201410/09UCF31BYU24UCFUCF -3UCF0
201109/23BYU24UCF17BYU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCF111 Overs
BYU321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 31 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#28) BYU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 10.80 #28
Offense Rating: 20.40 #63
Defense Rating: 6.88 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 15.3 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #21
Talent Rating: 624.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


BYU Notes
(11/18) Outplayed KU but lost, Retzlaff awful, Rgame avg
(11/10) B12 refs handed BYU W. Miracle team will end
(10/28) 7.8 ppg via TO's, near top of CFB thru 8 games
(10/19) Gutty W (Ok St). Rgame great. QB meh, had 3 TOs
(10/12) Killed AZ, forced 4 TOs. Rgame/Retzlaff good
(9/28) Run Def great vs Bay. Rgame better, 5-0
(9/26) New DC Jay Hill proving he can really coach
(9/23) Blitzed K St with TOs. Rgame bad, 3.4 ypc
(9/20) QB Retzlaff has been good but TO prone
(9/20) Def has been great, esp vs pass so far (#6)
BYU     Ratings Matchup     UCF
Power #28
#58
Off #63
#64
Def #42
#67
Talent #70
#31
SP+ #17
#61
SP+ Off #36
#55
SP+ Def #21
#61

Rematch from Week 9
UCF -2.5 (53.5)
BYU won at UCF this year (37-24)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat UCF last year (37-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 83° - Wind: 11 mph


Team Information
Injuries: BYU | UCF
Depth Chart: BYU | UCF
Rosters: BYU | UCF
(#58) UCF Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.39 #58
Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61
Talent Rating: 796.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.37 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


UCF Notes
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost


  
BYU's OC Aaron Roderick
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jake Retzlaff21136758%289619127.9
Gerry Bohannon3475%27016.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
LJ Martin13872375.239
Jake Retzlaff10041764.229
Sione I Moa2312735.524
Keelan Marion219624.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chase Roberts50803316.162
Keelan Marion24346114.452
Jojo Phillips10211221.157
Parker Kingston13196115.136

View BYU's Full Roster
BYU's DC Jay Hill
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Glasker7015424
Harrison Taggart693143
Tanner Wall530001
Jack Kelly (Tr)50105131
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kelly (Tr)50105131
Isaiah Glasker7015424
Logan Lutui134132
Harrison Taggart693143
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marque Collins (Tr)251018
Isaiah Glasker7015424
Mory Bamba170004

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Rizk7311862%915527.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)6410859%1012749.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacurri Brown (Tr)5340147.667
Myles Montgomery (Tr)5129335.725
Peny Boone (Tr)3420826.159
KJ Jefferson (Tr)6119323.223
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randy Pittman32416213.048
Jacoby Jones (Tr)22327214.940
Chauncey Magwood5102020.434
Xavier Townsend106916.922

View UCF's Full Roster
UCF's DC Addison Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Barr723022
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)686032
Deshawn Pace (Tr)614001
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)5310611
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)5310611
Malachi Lawrence156541
Daylan Dotson (Tr)3110451
Lee Hunter4410160
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antoine Jackson131003
Braeden Marshall223003
Ethan Barr723022