BYU at UCF - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -2.5 (53.5) (105) Open: -1.0 | 54.5
BYU 37 - UCF: 24 (Big 12)

Cougars (11 - 2) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (61 - 41)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UCF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: BYU -8.5 (SP+ BYU -12.5)
Projected Score: BYU: 31 - UCF: 23 (54)
UCF Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
BYU Travel: 1901 miles, 2 hrs behind

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BYU Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

BYU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	BYU vs Southern Illinois	-31
Fri 9/6	BYU at SMU	+12.5	55.5	W 18 - 15	U	Y
Sat 9/14	BYU at Wyoming	-9.5	40.5	W 34 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/21	BYU vs Kansas State	+7.5	49.5	W 38 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/28	BYU at Baylor	+3.0	47.0	W 34 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	BYU vs Arizona	-3.0	48.5	W 41 - 19	O	Y
Fri 10/18	BYU vs Oklahoma State	-8.5	53.0	W 38 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/26	BYU at UCF	+2.5	53.5	W 37 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	BYU at Utah	-3.5	40.5	W 22 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/16	BYU vs Kansas	-3.0	55.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/23	BYU at Arizona State	+3.5	49.0	L 23 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/30	BYU vs Houston	-9.5	39.5	W 30 - 18	O	Y
Sat 12/28	BYU vs Colorado	+3.0	55.5	W 36 - 14	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for BYU's Schedule

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BYU	#51 (.22)	45% (44)	31.2	47% (30)	3.23 (37)	148	43% (59)	216	3.73 (88)	#41 (.13)	41% (65)	19.6	46% (99)	37% (28)	3.79 (68)	37	1.4	2.1
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)	30.4	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)	26.9	37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BYU	#51 (.22)	45% (44)		47% (30)	3.23 (37)	148	43% (59)	216	3.73 (88)	#41 (.13)	41% (65)		46% (99)	37% (28)	3.79 (68)	37	1.4	2.1
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BYU Offense	13	31.2	28	44.7%	3.73	1.4	20	363	148	216	4.7	52%	48%	47%	43%	16%	.22
UCF Defense	12	26.9	23	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BYU Defense	13	19.6	21.7	41.4%	3.79	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	46%	37%	17%	.13
UCF Offense	12	30.4	32.9	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
BYU	13	28:32	20.5	35%	75%	4.4	37	1.4	2.1	4.5	1.2	5	31.7
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BYU Offense	13	52% (62)	47% (30)	31.6	147.7	4.7	18 (78)	.2 (36)	3.23 (37)	75% (60)	9% (44)	0.99 (56)
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (12)	-	-	-	-	.07 (39)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BYU Defense	13	51% (70)	46% (99)	-	-	-	-	.14 (78)	2.8 (36)	72% (59)	9% (86)	0.97 (61)
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (66)	1.13 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BYU Offense	13	48% (74)	43% (59)	15.6	27.3	215.8	7.9	13.8	20 (58)	11 (72)	.27 (60)	1.7 (33)	32% (83)	33% (49)	.34 (65)	7% (101)	2 (96)
UCF Defense	12	50% (82)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (81)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (99)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BYU Defense	13	49% (65)	37% (28)	-	-	-	-	-	-	20 (2)	.12 (21)	1.5 (24)	31% (83)	31% (73)	.27 (52)	8% (11)	2 (49)
UCF Offense	12	41% (121)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (76)	29% (33)	33% (53)	.16 (122)	5% (48)	1.8 (126)

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: 10.80 #28
BYU's Offense Rating: 20.40 #63
BYU's Defense Rating: 6.88 #42
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
BYU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
BYU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.3 #17
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #36
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #21

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: 10.80 UCF: 4.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: 15.3 UCF: 2.8

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 4.39 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 28
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

BYU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
BYU 31
UCF 23

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
BYU 34
UCF 22

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
BYU 27
UCF 26

Total Points: 53

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	BYU	41	UCF	21	BYU -17.5	BYU	46.5	Over
2024	10/26	UCF	24	BYU	37	UCF -2.5	BYU	53.5	Over
2020	12/22	BYU	49	UCF	23	BYU -6	BYU	80.0	Under
2014	10/09	UCF	31	BYU	24	UCF -3	UCF	0
2011	09/23	BYU	24	UCF	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	1	1	2 Overs
BYU	4	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	3 - 1	3 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 4	1 - 3	0 - 0	1 - 3

(#28) BYU at (#58) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BYU	UCF
Power RatePwr	#28	#58
SP+SP+	#17	#61
Perf GradeGrade	#30	#54
OffenseOff	#52	#52
DefenseDef	#33	#47
Spec TeamsST	#29	#117
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#35

BYU Notes(11/23) 2 str L's, Rgame meh, 2 INTs in L to ASU
(11/18) Outplayed KU but lost, Retzlaff awful, Rgame avg
(11/10) B12 refs handed BYU W. Miracle team will end
(10/28) 7.8 ppg via TO's, near top of CFB thru 8 games
(10/19) Gutty W (Ok St). Rgame great. QB meh, had 3 TOs
(10/12) Killed AZ, forced 4 TOs. Rgame/Retzlaff good
(9/28) Run Def great vs Bay. Rgame better, 5-0
(9/26) New DC Jay Hill proving he can really coach
(9/23) Blitzed K St with TOs. Rgame bad, 3.4 ypc
(9/20) QB Retzlaff has been good but TO prone
(9/20) Def has been great, esp vs pass so far (#6)
(9/8) Great W, outgained SMU 336-261. Great Def
BYU Injury Report

UCF Notes(12/17) Hired Alex Grinch as DC? Why?
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost
(10/6) B2B L's (UF). Rgame shut down, Pass O/D awful
UCF Injury Report

BYU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BYU Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#52	#47
SuccessSuc	#44	#45
ExplosiveExp	#48	#95
PPAPPA	#51	#63
PowerPwr	#63	#67
SP+SP+	#36	#61
Pts POPPO	#88	#118
HavocHav	#64	#64

BYU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BYU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#71	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#30	#12
Run ExplRExp	#56	#90
PPAExp	#36	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#64	-
OL YdsOLY	#37	#13
Stuff RateStuff	#89	#17
TackleTak	-	#55

BYU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	BYU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#44	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#59	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#64
PPAExp	#60	#81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#54	#65
F7 HavocF7	#44	#28
DB HavocDB	#101	#118

UCF on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	BYU Def
Perf GradePerf	#52	#33
SuccessSuc	#28	#65
ExplosiveExp	#73	#34
PPAPPA	#58	#41
PowerPwr	#64	#42
SP+SP+	#55	#21
Pts POPPO	#86	#68
HavocHav	#51	#49

UCF Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	BYU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#99
Run ExplRExp	#11	#61
PPAExp	#7	#78
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#2	#36
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#76
TackleTak	-	#90

UCF Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	BYU Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#66
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#28
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#24
PPAExp	#123	#21
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#17	#70
F7 HavocF7	#66	#86
DB HavocDB	#48	#11

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

BYU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 83° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 9
UCF -2.5 (53.5)
BYU won at UCF this year (37-24)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat UCF last year (37-24)

BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jake Retzlaff	211	367	58%	2896	19	12	7.9
Gerry Bohannon	3	4	75%	27	0	1	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
LJ Martin	138	723	7	5.2	39
Jake Retzlaff	100	417	6	4.2	29
Hinckley Ropati	68	360	1	5.3	26
Sione I Moa	23	127	3	5.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Roberts	50	803	3	16.1	62
Darius Lassiter	45	703	4	15.6	57
Keelan Marion	24	346	1	14.4	52
Jojo Phillips	10	211	2	21.1	57

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Glasker	70	15	4	2	4
Harrison Taggart	69	3	1	4	3
Tyler Batty	57	7	2	8	2
Tanner Wall	53	0	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Kelly (Tr)	50	10	5	13	1
Isaiah Glasker	70	15	4	2	4
Blake Mangelson	37	6	2	3	1
Tyler Batty	57	7	2	8	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marque Collins (Tr)	25	1	0	1	8
John Nelson	23	2	1	3	5
Jakob Robinson	43	5	0	2	5

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Addison Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2