Arizona at Kansas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Arizona Wildcats at Kansas State Wildcats

Friday, September 13th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Kansas State -7 (58.0) (-258) Open: -7.5
Kansas State 31 - Arizona: 7

Wildcats (4 - 8) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 32 (18 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Kansas State -21 (SP+ KSU -17)
Projected Score: ARIZ: 20 - KSU: 41 (60)
KSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
ARIZ Travel: 937 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wildcats (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Chris Klieman (39 - 24)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (33 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARIZ Players
KSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona vs New Mexico	-28.0	60.0	W 61 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/7	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-43.0	65.0	W 22 - 10	U	N
Fri 9/13	Arizona at Kansas State	+7.0	58.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Arizona at Utah	+7.5	47.0	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Arizona vs Texas Tech	-6.0	64.0	L 22 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/12	Arizona at BYU	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/19	Arizona vs Colorado	-2.5	57.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/26	Arizona vs West Virginia	-5.5	51.5	L 26 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/2	Arizona at UCF	+6.5	55.0	L 12 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Arizona vs Houston	-1.0	46.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona at TCU	+10.5	60.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/30	Arizona vs Arizona State	+7.5	52.5	L 7 - 49	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule

Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Kansas State vs UT Martin	-36.5	56.5	W 41 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Kansas State at Tulane	-8.5	47.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
Fri 9/13	Kansas State vs Arizona	-7.0	58.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Kansas State at BYU	-7.5	49.5	L 9 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/28	Kansas State vs Oklahoma State	-6.0	58.0	W 42 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Kansas State at Colorado	-3.5	54.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/19	Kansas State at West Virginia	-2.5	56.5	W 45 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Kansas State vs Kansas	-10.0	56.5	W 29 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/2	Kansas State at Houston	-12.5	46.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Kansas State vs Arizona State	-7.5	51.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	Kansas State vs Cincinnati	-7.5	54.5	W 41 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Kansas State at Iowa State	+2.5	51.5	L 21 - 29	U	N
Thu 12/26	Kansas State vs Rutgers	-7.5	51.5	W 44 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)	21.8	37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)	31.8	45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2
KSU	#17 (.3)	44% (55)	30.8	46% (42)	3.37 (14)	190	42% (68)	196	4.08 (53)	#29 (.11)	36% (6)	23.4	34% (4)	38% (32)	3.54 (43)	41.3	1.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)		37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)		45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2
KSU	#17 (.3)	44% (55)		46% (42)	3.37 (14)	190	42% (68)	196	4.08 (53)	#29 (.11)	36% (6)		34% (4)	38% (32)	3.54 (43)	41.3	1.2	1.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Offense	12	21.8	17.8	38.5%	3.53	1.7	19	355	107	248	3.9	39%	61%	37%	40%	16%	.15
KSU Defense	13	23.4	16.5	35.9%	3.54	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	34%	38%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Defense	12	31.8	37.4	44.6%	4.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	45%	44%	14%	.24
KSU Offense	13	30.8	33	44%	4.08	1.2	18	387	190	196	6.1	52%	48%	46%	42%	12%	.3

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona	12	29:45	18.5	43%	42%	6.5	57.6	1.7	1.2	4.8	1.7	0	27.6
Kansas State	13	26:45	18.5	40%	56%	5	41.3	1.2	1.1	5.9	2.4	3	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense	12	39% (127)	37% (126)	27.4	106.7	3.9	11 (116)	.03 (112)	2.64 (123)	55% (134)	9% (59)	1.21 (6)
KSU Defense	13	47% (31)	34% (4)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (10)	2.6 (15)	77% (97)	11% (39)	1.01 (83)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense	12	51% (73)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.18 (100)	3.32 (115)	78% (99)	9% (94)	1.08 (109)
KSU Offense	13	52% (57)	46% (42)	31.5	190.3	6.1	18 (78)	.27 (11)	3.37 (14)	68% (102)	8% (29)	1.14 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense	12	61% (8)	40% (91)	21.8	36.4	247.9	6.8	11.4	18 (68)	13 (103)	.22 (88)	1.6 (44)	36% (124)	31% (70)	.33 (71)	6% (88)	2.1 (35)
KSU Defense	13	53% (104)	38% (32)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.24 (72)	1.8 (130)	39% (2)	30% (52)	.35 (88)	6% (68)	2.2 (119)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense	12	48% (61)	44% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.31 (103)	1.6 (66)	31% (88)	32% (95)	.39 (101)	5% (93)	2.2 (105)
KSU Offense	13	48% (76)	42% (68)	15.9	27	196.4	7.3	12.3	22 (46)	9 (48)	.33 (36)	1.7 (31)	31% (56)	31% (76)	.36 (57)	5% (27)	2 (79)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: -7.71 #90
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.72 #87
Arizona's Defense Rating: 14.40 #104
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Arizona's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Arizona's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.8 #82
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: -7.71 Kansas State: 15.525

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: -2.8 Kansas State: 14.1

Kansas State's Power Ratings
Kansas State's Power Rating: 15.525 #25
Kansas State's Offense Rating: 23.28 #35
Kansas State's Defense Rating: 3.97 #18
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Kansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Kansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.1 #18
Kansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #29
Kansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #25

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

Arizona's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas State 41
Arizona 20

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona 40
Kansas State 31

Total Points: 70

Based on Entire Season
Kansas State 33
Arizona 20

Total Points: 53

Kansas State Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 33
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.5

Kansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/12	Arizona	23	Kansas State	17	Kansas State -1.5	Arizona	55.5	Under
2024	09/13	Kansas State	31	Arizona	7	Kansas State -7	Kansas State	58.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kansas State	1	1	0 Overs
Arizona	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#90) ARIZ at (#25) KSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARIZ	KSU
Power RatePwr	#90	#25
SP+SP+	#82	#18
Perf GradeGrade	#99	#61
OffenseOff	#82	#58
DefenseDef	#118	#80
Spec TeamsST	#53	#77
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#41	#48

Arizona Notes(12/13) Hired OC Seth Doege (Marsh/Purdue/USC)
(12/13) OC Babers lost playcalling in Nov/not renewed
(12/1) 1-7 finish, killed by ASU, Off was awful, Def worse
(11/25) Killed by TCU, Rgame/Def abysmal, Fifita meh
(11/18) Off the mat W vs Hou, stats even but forced 3 TOs
(11/2) 5 Straight L's, Off awful, Def awful. Sinking
(10/28) -6.25 pgg via TOs, bottom 10 in CFB thru 8 gms
(10/27) Four straight L's, Rgame awful, D bad vs WVU
(10/19) Unserious FB team. Just 245 yds vs Colorado?
(10/12) 4 TOs and bad defense = killed by BYU
(10/7) Scoring Opp Off/Def awful. 6 FG att @ TT (L)
(10/1) Great W (Utah), Rgame was good, Run D was great
Arizona Injury Report

Kansas State Notes(11/30) 1-3 finish. QB Johnson 12/28, KSU 2 TOs, 3-13 3rd
(11/25) Rgame mauled Cincy, Johnson OK, Def good
(11/18) 2 straight L's w/ Bad Off, Rgame OK but 3 TOs
(11/2) Rgame awful vs Hou, 89 yds, 2.6 ypc. Horrible L
(10/19) Best of B12? Johnson 298 yds, 3 TD @ WVU
(10/13) Rgame not great vs Col, QB Johnson sacked a lot
(9/28) Great W over OK St. Rgame 300 yds (8.8 ypc)
(9/23) Shocking L @ BYU. QB Johnson was awful, 3 TOs
(9/13) Bullied Az. Johnson great runner, still meh passer
(9/11) WR are JAGs, OL meh. QB/RB run game good.
(9/8) Lucky W Tulane, Pass D torched, good Rgame
(7/30) Johnson now QB, WR has vets but playmakers?
Kansas State Injury Report

Arizona on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	KSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#82	#80
SuccessSuc	#117	#6
ExplosiveExp	#3	#129
PPAPPA	#93	#29
PowerPwr	#87	#18
SP+SP+	#90	#25
Pts POPPO	#101	#43
HavocHav	#65	#50

Arizona Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	KSU Def
Run GameRun	#92	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#126	#4
Run ExplRExp	#6	#83
PPAExp	#112	#10
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	#123	#15
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#12
TackleTak	-	#77

Arizona Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	KSU Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#91	#32
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#130
PPAExp	#88	#72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#16	#114
F7 HavocF7	#59	#39
DB HavocDB	#88	#68

Kansas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	KSU Off	ARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#58	#118
SuccessSuc	#55	#100
ExplosiveExp	#9	#96
PPAPPA	#17	#109
PowerPwr	#35	#104
SP+SP+	#29	#84
Pts POPPO	#53	#125
HavocHav	#21	#99

Kansas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	KSU Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#25	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#42	#90
Run ExplRExp	#10	#109
PPAExp	#11	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#48	-
OL YdsOLY	#14	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#102
TackleTak	-	#127

Kansas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	KSU Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#42	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#68	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#66
PPAExp	#36	#103
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#31	#75
F7 HavocF7	#29	#94
DB HavocDB	#27	#93

Program Comparison
KSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Kansas State -7.0 (58.0)
Kansas State won vs Arizona this year (31-7)

Previous Matchups
Kansas State beat Arizona last year (31-7)

ARIZ's OC Dino Babers (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	260	430	61%	2958	18	12	6.9
Cole Tannenbaum	1	5	20%	3	0	1	0.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quali Conley (Tr)	150	745	8	5.0	58
Kedrick Reescano (Tr)	78	359	1	4.6	56
Jacory Merritt	13	106	1	8.2	36
Kayden Luke	5	20	0	4.0	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	84	1319	8	15.7	78
Chris Hunter	35	323	3	9.2	45
Quali Conley (Tr)	39	245	1	6.3	16
Keyan Burnett	18	217	1	12.1	35

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Duane Akina (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dalton Johnson	78	5	0	0	2
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	0	6
Owen Goss (Tr)	49	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Smith (Tr)	48	7	5	2	0
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei	33	7	3	3	1
Chase Kennedy (Tr)	17	4	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	6
Tacario Davis	39	2	1	6
Emmanuel Karnley	14	0	0	5

KSU's OC Conor Riley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Avery Johnson	217	372	58%	2712	25	10	7.3
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)	3	7	43%	18	0	0	2.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DJ Giddens	205	1343	7	6.6	66
Avery Johnson	113	605	7	5.4	33
Dylan Edwards (Tr)	74	546	5	7.4	65
Joe Jackson	39	227	1	5.8	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayce Brown	47	823	5	17.5	65
Keagan Johnson	29	359	1	12.4	35
DJ Giddens	21	258	1	12.3	53
Garrett Oakley	22	236	5	10.7	28

View Kansas State's Full Roster

KSU's DC Joe Klanderman (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Austin Romaine	96	8	2	4	2
VJ Payne	64	4	0	0	3
Marques Sigle	60	7	0	0	3
Austin Moore	59	7	2	6	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brendan Mott	45	11	8	5	0
Desmond Purnell	46	10	4	6	1
Tobi Osunsanmi	19	6	4	4	0
Chiddi Obiazor	17	5	4	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Parrish	50	3	0	4	7
Keenan Garber	29	1	0	0	5
Chiddi Obiazor	17	5	4	3	3