Houston at Arizona - 2024 Matchup Preview

Friday, November 15th 2024 (10:15 PM EST)
Arizona -1 (46.5) (-115) Open: -2.0
Arizona 27 - Houston: 3 (Big 12)

Cougars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 14 - 23 (13 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

HOU coming off BYE
ARIZ coming off BYE
Our Line: Arizona -4.5 (SP+ ARIZ -5)
Projected Score: HOU: 21 - ARIZ: 26 (47)
ARIZ Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
HOU Travel: 939 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (4 - 8) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 32 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HOU Players
ARIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Houston's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Houston vs UNLV	-3.0	56.0	L 7 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/7	Houston at Oklahoma	+27.5	48.5	L 12 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Houston vs Rice	-3.5	43.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Houston at Cincinnati	+4.0	47.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/28	Houston vs Iowa State	+16.0	43.0	L 0 - 20	U	N
Fri 10/4	Houston at TCU	+16.5	52.0	W 30 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Houston vs Kansas	+4.5	45.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/26	Houston vs Utah	+4.5	36.0	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Houston vs Kansas State	+12.5	46.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Houston at Arizona	+1.0	46.5	L 3 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	Houston vs Baylor	+7.0	51.0	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Houston at BYU	+9.5	39.5	L 18 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

Arizona's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona vs New Mexico	-28.0	60.0	W 61 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/7	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-43.0	65.0	W 22 - 10	U	N
Fri 9/13	Arizona at Kansas State	+7.0	58.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Arizona at Utah	+7.5	47.0	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Arizona vs Texas Tech	-6.0	64.0	L 22 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/12	Arizona at BYU	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/19	Arizona vs Colorado	-2.5	57.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/26	Arizona vs West Virginia	-5.5	51.5	L 26 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/2	Arizona at UCF	+6.5	55.0	L 12 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Arizona vs Houston	-1.0	46.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona at TCU	+10.5	60.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/30	Arizona vs Arizona State	+7.5	52.5	L 7 - 49	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)	14	35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)	22.9	40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)	21.8	37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)	31.8	45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	#133 (-)	35% (129)		35% (130)	2.52 (129)	137	37% (115)	153	2.57 (134)	#51 (.14)	40% (41)		40% (41)	39% (49)	3.52 (41)	51.9	2.3	1.6
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)		37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)		45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Offense	12	14	12.6	35.3%	2.57	2.3	15	289	137	153	3.9	57%	42%	35%	37%	21%	-
ARIZ Defense	12	31.8	27.7	44.6%	4.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	45%	44%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Defense	12	22.9	25.2	39.6%	3.52	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	39%	18%	.14
ARIZ Offense	12	21.8	24.6	38.5%	3.53	1.7	19	355	107	248	3.9	39%	61%	37%	40%	16%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Houston	12	30:10	15.1	28%	38%	5.5	51.9	2.3	1.6	5.6	1.8	2	27.7
Arizona	12	29:45	18.5	43%	42%	6.5	57.6	1.7	1.2	4.8	1.7	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Offense	12	57% (22)	35% (130)	35.5	136.6	3.9	9 (125)	(122)	2.52 (129)	64% (119)	16% (132)	1.01 (49)
ARIZ Defense	12	51% (73)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.18 (100)	3.32 (115)	78% (99)	9% (94)	1.08 (109)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Defense	12	51% (76)	40% (41)	-	-	-	-	.06 (34)	2.8 (35)	69% (41)	12% (27)	1 (75)
ARIZ Offense	12	39% (127)	37% (126)	27.4	106.7	3.9	11 (116)	.03 (112)	2.64 (123)	55% (134)	9% (59)	1.21 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Offense	12	42% (114)	37% (115)	15.2	23.3	152.7	6.5	10.1	9 (128)	17 (127)	.02 (131)	1.4 (122)	35% (120)	20% (133)	-.04 (134)	5% (45)	1.7 (130)
ARIZ Defense	12	48% (61)	44% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.31 (103)	1.6 (66)	31% (88)	32% (95)	.39 (101)	5% (93)	2.2 (105)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Defense	12	49% (62)	39% (49)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.23 (68)	1.7 (95)	33% (54)	32% (96)	.32 (79)	6% (71)	2 (55)
ARIZ Offense	12	61% (8)	40% (91)	21.8	36.4	247.9	6.8	11.4	18 (68)	13 (103)	.22 (88)	1.6 (44)	36% (124)	31% (70)	.33 (71)	6% (88)	2.1 (35)

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: -5.97 #86
Houston's Offense Rating: 9.85 #129
Houston's Defense Rating: 8.04 #55
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #62
Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #118
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: -5.97 Arizona: -2.755

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: -8.2 Arizona: -2.8

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: -2.755 #90
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.72 #87
Arizona's Defense Rating: 14.40 #104
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Arizona's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Arizona's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.8 #82
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Houston Scoring
Offense: 14 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona 26
Houston 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Houston 31
Arizona 19

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Arizona 23
Houston 22

Total Points: 45

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.7

Arizona's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Houston	31	Arizona	28	Arizona -1.5	Houston	47.5	Over
2024	11/15	Arizona	27	Houston	3	Arizona -1	Arizona	46.5	Under
2018	09/08	Houston	45	Arizona	18	Houston -3	Houston	71.0	Under
2017	09/09	Arizona	16	Houston	19	Houston -1.5	Houston	66.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona	1	1	1 Overs
Houston	3	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	3 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 3	1 - 3	1 - 1	0 - 2

(#86) HOU at (#90) ARIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HOU	ARIZ
Power RatePwr	#86	#90
SP+SP+	#101	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#125	#99
OffenseOff	#128	#82
DefenseDef	#99	#118
Spec TeamsST	#109	#53
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#62	#41

Houston Notes(12/27) Signed QB Weigman (A&M) & more
(12/14) Hired DC A. Armstrong (UF DC 23-24)
(12/5) Fired OC Kevin Barbay
(12/5) Hired OC Slade Nagle, ST/TE coach @ LSU
(11/25) 4 TOs, 3-10 on 3rd, 239 total yards in bad Bay L
(11/25) Def played great vs Bay, forced 3 INTs, Off sucks
(11/18) Regress vs Zona, Off abysmal, 3 TOs, Def OK
(11/2) Huge W over K St. Chris 11-11, Run D great
(10/27) 13 Passes, 230 ryds (4.7 ypc) in Utah upset. Big W
(10/18) QB Criss replacing Smith (should be an upgrade)
(9/22) Off abysmal. Can't run/pass. Def can't overcome
(9/8) Close L @ OU. Run: D great, O bad, QB Smith good.
Houston Injury Report

Arizona Notes(12/13) Hired OC Seth Doege (Marsh/Purdue/USC)
(12/13) OC Babers lost playcalling in Nov/not renewed
(12/1) 1-7 finish, killed by ASU, Off was awful, Def worse
(11/25) Killed by TCU, Rgame/Def abysmal, Fifita meh
(11/18) Off the mat W vs Hou, stats even but forced 3 TOs
(11/2) 5 Straight L's, Off awful, Def awful. Sinking
(10/28) -6.25 pgg via TOs, bottom 10 in CFB thru 8 gms
(10/27) Four straight L's, Rgame awful, D bad vs WVU
(10/19) Unserious FB team. Just 245 yds vs Colorado?
(10/12) 4 TOs and bad defense = killed by BYU
(10/7) Scoring Opp Off/Def awful. 6 FG att @ TT (L)
(10/1) Great W (Utah), Rgame was good, Run D was great
Arizona Injury Report

Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	ARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#128	#118
SuccessSuc	#129	#100
ExplosiveExp	#109	#96
PPAPPA	#133	#109
PowerPwr	#129	#104
SP+SP+	#118	#84
Pts POPPO	#134	#125
HavocHav	#130	#99

Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#133	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#130	#90
Run ExplRExp	#49	#109
PPAExp	#122	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#101	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#116	#102
TackleTak	-	#127

Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#128	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#115	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#66
PPAExp	#131	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#42	#75
F7 HavocF7	#132	#94
DB HavocDB	#45	#93

Arizona on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	HOU Def
Perf GradePerf	#82	#99
SuccessSuc	#117	#41
ExplosiveExp	#3	#94
PPAPPA	#93	#51
PowerPwr	#87	#55
SP+SP+	#90	#54
Pts POPPO	#101	#41
HavocHav	#65	#46

Arizona Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	#92	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	#126	#41
Run ExplRExp	#6	#75
PPAExp	#112	#34
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	#123	#35
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#38
TackleTak	-	#73

Arizona Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#94
Pass SuccessPSuc	#91	#49
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#95
PPAExp	#88	#68
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#16	#132
F7 HavocF7	#59	#27
DB HavocDB	#88	#71

Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

HOU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 58°

Rematch from Week 12
Arizona -1.0 (46.5)
Arizona won vs Houston this year (27-3)

Previous Matchups
Arizona beat Houston last year (27-3)

HOU's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Donovan Smith	87	133	65%	867	4	8	6.5
Zeon Chriss (Tr)	83	130	64%	824	4	8	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Re'Shaun Sanford II	94	444	1	4.7	38
Zeon Chriss (Tr)	113	381	4	3.4	71
Stacy Sneed	60	308	1	5.1	65
J'Marion Burnette	43	182	0	4.2	54

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Stephon Johnson Jr.	32	402	2	12.6	44
Joseph Manjack	22	351	3	16.0	57
Mekhi Mews (Tr)	29	253	1	8.7	57
Maliq Carr (Tr)	19	186	1	9.8	23

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Batton (Tr)	94	8	3	3	0
A.J. Haulcy	74	0	0	0	7
Jamal Morris	63	5	1	0	0
Kentrell Webb (Tr)	54	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keith Cooper Jr.	46	9	4	7	2
Michael Batton (Tr)	94	8	3	3	0
Brandon Mack	39	5	3	2	0
Anthony Holmes Jr.	35	9	3	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
A.J. Haulcy	74	0	0	7
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)	24	4	0	4
Ajani Carter	22	1	1	3

ARIZ's OC Dino Babers (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	260	430	61%	2958	18	12	6.9
Cole Tannenbaum	1	5	20%	3	0	1	0.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quali Conley (Tr)	150	745	8	5.0	58
Kedrick Reescano (Tr)	78	359	1	4.6	56
Jacory Merritt	13	106	1	8.2	36
Kayden Luke	5	20	0	4.0	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	84	1319	8	15.7	78
Chris Hunter	35	323	3	9.2	45
Quali Conley (Tr)	39	245	1	6.3	16
Keyan Burnett	18	217	1	12.1	35

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Duane Akina (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dalton Johnson	78	5	0	0	2
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	0	6
Owen Goss (Tr)	49	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Smith (Tr)	48	7	5	2	0
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei	33	7	3	3	1
Chase Kennedy (Tr)	17	4	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	6
Tacario Davis	39	2	1	6
Emmanuel Karnley	14	0	0	5