Northern Arizona at Arizona - 2024 Matchup Preview
Northern Arizona logo Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona WildcatsArizona logo
Saturday, September 7th 2024 (10:00 PM EDT)
Arizona -43 (65.0) (0)  Open: -43.0 | 65.0
Arizona 22 - Northern Arizona: 10

 
Lumberjacks (0 - 1) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 10 - 22 (10 - 22 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 92.1° (21% Hum)
ARIZ 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -3  (SP+ ARIZ -3)
ARIZ Win prob: 100% | Cover: 30%
Wildcats (4 - 8) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 32 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Northern Arizona's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7 Northern Arizona at Arizona+43.065.0L 10 - 22UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Arizona's Schedule
Arizona's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Arizona vs New Mexico-28.060.0W 61 - 39ON
Sat 9/7 Arizona vs Northern Arizona-43.065.0W 22 - 10UN
Fri 9/13 Arizona at Kansas State+7.058.0L 7 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Arizona at Utah+7.547.0W 23 - 10UY
Sat 10/5 Arizona vs Texas Tech-6.064.0L 22 - 28UN
Sat 10/12 Arizona at BYU+3.048.5L 19 - 41ON
Sat 10/19 Arizona vs Colorado-2.557.5L 7 - 34UN
Sat 10/26 Arizona vs West Virginia-5.551.5L 26 - 31ON
Sat 11/2 Arizona at UCF+6.555.0L 12 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15 Arizona vs Houston-1.046.5W 27 - 3UY
Sat 11/23 Arizona at TCU+10.560.0L 28 - 49ON
Sat 11/30 Arizona vs Arizona State+7.552.5L 7 - 49ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAU0%100%000%000%220%0%0000
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)21.837% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)31.845% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARIZ#93 (.15)39% (117)37% (126)2.64 (123)10740% (91)2483.53 (101)#109 (.24)45% (100)45% (90)44% (109)4.55 (125)57.61.71.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAU Offense110100%00000000%0%0%0%0%
ARIZ Defense1231.827.744.6%4.551.2 - - - - - 51%48%45%44%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAU Defense122220%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
ARIZ Offense1221.824.638.5%3.531.7193551072483.939%61%37%40%16%.15

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northern Arizona10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Arizona1229:4518.543%42%6.557.61.71.24.81.7027.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAU Offense10%0%000000%0%0
ARIZ Defense1251% (73)45% (90) - - - - .18 (100)3.32 (115)78% (99)9% (94)1.08 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAU Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
ARIZ Offense1239% (127)37% (126)27.4106.73.911 (116).03 (112)2.64 (123)55% (134)9% (59)1.21 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAU Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
ARIZ Defense1248% (61)44% (109) - - - - - - 6 (109).31 (103)1.6 (66)31% (88)32% (95).39 (101)5% (93)2.2 (105)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAU Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
ARIZ Offense1261% (8)40% (91)21.836.4247.96.811.418 (68)13 (103).22 (88)1.6 (44)36% (124)31% (70).33 (71)6% (88)2.1 (35)

Northern Arizona's Power Ratings
Northern Arizona's Power Rating: NR
Northern Arizona's Offense Rating: NR
Northern Arizona's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northern Arizona's 2024 Expected Record: -
Northern Arizona's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Northern Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Northern Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Big Sky Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Arizona:    Arizona: -2.755

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Arizona:    Arizona: -2.8




Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: -2.755  #90
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.72  #87
Arizona's Defense Rating: 14.40  #104
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #41
Arizona's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Arizona's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.8  #82
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Northern Arizona Scoring
Offense: 10 PPG
Offense on Road: 10
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

Northern Arizona's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arizona 34
Northern Arizona 21

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona 45
Northern Arizona 23

Total Points: 68

Based on Entire Season
Arizona 23
Northern Arizona 20

Total Points: 43
Arizona Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.7

Arizona's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Arizona22Northern Arizona10Arizona -43Northern Arizona65.0Under
202309/02Arizona38Northern Arizona3Arizona -28.5Arizona61.0Under
202109/18Arizona19Northern Arizona21Arizona -26.5Northern Arizona53.5Under
201909/07Arizona65Northern Arizona41Arizona -28Northern Arizona63.5Over
201709/02Arizona62Northern Arizona24Arizona -26.5Arizona0
201509/19Arizona77Northern Arizona13Arizona -35Arizona0
201308/30Arizona35Northern Arizona0Arizona -35Push0
201109/03Arizona41Northern Arizona10
200909/12Arizona34Northern Arizona17
200709/08Arizona45Northern Arizona24
200509/10Arizona31Northern Arizona12
200409/04Arizona21Northern Arizona3
200208/31Arizona37Northern Arizona3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arizona1231 Overs
Northern Arizona133 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 13 - 33 - 30 - 0
Road Teams1 - 123 - 30 - 03 - 3

(#NR) NAU at (#90) ARIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAUARIZ
Power RatePwrNR #90
SP+SP+NR #82
Perf GradeGradeNR #99
OffenseOffNR #82
DefenseDefNR #118
Spec TeamsSTNR #53
TalentTalNR #1
Blue ChipsBC%NR #41
Arizona Notes
(12/13) Hired OC Seth Doege (Marsh/Purdue/USC)
(12/13) OC Babers lost playcalling in Nov/not renewed
(12/1) 1-7 finish, killed by ASU, Off was awful, Def worse
(11/25) Killed by TCU, Rgame/Def abysmal, Fifita meh
(11/18) Off the mat W vs Hou, stats even but forced 3 TOs
(11/2) 5 Straight L's, Off awful, Def awful. Sinking
(10/28) -6.25 pgg via TOs, bottom 10 in CFB thru 8 gms
(10/27) Four straight L's, Rgame awful, D bad vs WVU
(10/19) Unserious FB team. Just 245 yds vs Colorado?
(10/12) 4 TOs and bad defense = killed by BYU
(10/7) Scoring Opp Off/Def awful. 6 FG att @ TT (L)
(10/1) Great W (Utah), Rgame was good, Run D was great
Arizona Injury Report
Northern Arizona on Offense
CategoryCat
NAU OffARIZ Def
Perf GradePerfNR #118
SuccessSucNR #100
ExplosiveExpNR #96
PPAPPANR #109
PowerPwrNR #104
SP+SP+NR #84
Pts POPPONR #125
HavocHavNR #99
Northern Arizona Run Game
CategoryCat
NAU OffARIZ Def
Run GameRunNR #114
Run SuccessRSucNR #90
Run ExplRExpNR #109
PPAExpNR #100
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #115
Stuff RateStuffNR #102
TackleTak -  #127
Northern Arizona Pass Game
CategoryCat
NAU OffARIZ Def
Pass GamePassNR #114
Pass SuccessPSucNR #109
Pass ExplPExlNR #66
PPAExpNR #103
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #75
F7 HavocF7NR #94
DB HavocDBNR #93
Arizona on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatARIZ OffNAU Def
Perf GradePerf #82NR
SuccessSuc #117NR
ExplosiveExp #3NR
PPAPPA #93NR
PowerPwr #87NR
SP+SP+ #90NR
Pts POPPO #101NR
HavocHav #65NR
Arizona Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
ARIZ OffNAU Def
Run GameRun #92NR
Run SuccessRSuc #126NR
Run ExplRExp #6NR
PPAExp #112NR
Run BlockR Blk #100 -
OL YdsOLY #123NR
Stuff RateStuff #133NR
TackleTak - NR
Arizona Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatARIZ OffNAU Def
Pass GamePass #56NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #91NR
Pass ExplPExl #44NR
PPAExp #88NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #16NR
F7 HavocF7 #59NR
DB HavocDB #88NR
Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

NAU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 92° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Arizona -43.0 (65.0)
Arizona won vs Northern Arizona this year (22-10)

Previous Matchups
Arizona beat Northern Arizona last year (22-10)
Arizona beat Northern Arizona in 2023 (38-3)

  
NAU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ty Pennington18728665%22551327.9
PJ London223858%261136.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth Cromwell12568195.431
Ty Pennington10443774.275
Darvon Hubbard9843644.455
J'Wan Evans (Tr)5231026.060
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryzai White42579413.850
Kolbe Katsis35498214.288
Tay Lanier27457416.952
Ta'ir Brooks (Tr)22367416.768

View Northern Arizona's Full Roster

NAU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alex McLaughlin111100
Micah Carreon92000
Ammon Allen (Tr)91000
Tommy Ellis92100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alex McLaughlin111100
Tommy Ellis92100
Davis Burns (Tr)10000
Braeden Kaczmarek10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Lewis31001
Christopher Smith51011
Canyon Moses (Tr)30011

ARIZ's OC Dino Babers (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Noah Fifita26043061%295818126.9
Cole Tannenbaum1520%3010.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quali Conley (Tr)15074585.058
Kedrick Reescano (Tr)7835914.656
Jacory Merritt1310618.236
Kayden Luke52004.011
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan841319815.778
Chris Hunter3532339.245
Quali Conley (Tr)3924516.316
Keyan Burnett18217112.135

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Duane Akina (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalton Johnson785002
Taye Brown644312
Genesis Smith604006
Owen Goss (Tr)494112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre Smith (Tr)487520
Taye Brown644312
Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei337331
Chase Kennedy (Tr)174221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Genesis Smith604006
Tacario Davis392016
Emmanuel Karnley140005