Texas Tech at Arizona - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#11)Texas Tech Red Raiders at Arizona Wildcats

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (11:00 PM EDT)
Arizona -6 (64.0) (-218) Open: -5.0
Texas Tech 28 - Arizona: 22 (Big 12)

Red Raiders (8 - 5) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Joey McGuire (15 - 11)
Avg Score : 38 - 35 (31 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TTU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -6 (SP+ TTU -7)
Projected Score: TTU: 34 - ARIZ: 28 (62)
ARIZ Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
TTU Travel: 535 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (4 - 8) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 32 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TTU Players
ARIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian	-34.5	58.5	W 52 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/7	Texas Tech at Washington State	-2.5	64.5	L 16 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/14	Texas Tech vs North Texas	-10.5	70.5	W 66 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas Tech vs Arizona State	-4.5	58.5	W 30 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Texas Tech vs Cincinnati	-3.0	60.0	W 44 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	Texas Tech at Arizona	+6.0	64.0	W 28 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Texas Tech vs Baylor	-4.5	56.0	L 35 - 59	O	N
Sat 10/26	Texas Tech at TCU	+5.0	66.0	L 34 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Texas Tech at Iowa State	+13.5	55.0	W 23 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Texas Tech vs Colorado	+5.0	62.0	L 27 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Texas Tech at Oklahoma State	-5.0	63.5	W 56 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Texas Tech vs West Virginia	-2.5	61.5	W 52 - 15	O	Y
Fri 12/27	Texas Tech vs Arkansas	-3.5	52.5	L 26 - 39	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule

Arizona's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona vs New Mexico	-28.0	60.0	W 61 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/7	Arizona vs Northern Arizona	-43.0	65.0	W 22 - 10	U	N
Fri 9/13	Arizona at Kansas State	+7.0	58.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Arizona at Utah	+7.5	47.0	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Arizona vs Texas Tech	-6.0	64.0	L 22 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/12	Arizona at BYU	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/19	Arizona vs Colorado	-2.5	57.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/26	Arizona vs West Virginia	-5.5	51.5	L 26 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/2	Arizona at UCF	+6.5	55.0	L 12 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Arizona vs Houston	-1.0	46.5	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona at TCU	+10.5	60.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/30	Arizona vs Arizona State	+7.5	52.5	L 7 - 49	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)	37.6	45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)	34.8	44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)	21.8	37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)	31.8	45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)		45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)		44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)		37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)		45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TTU Offense	13	37.6	31.4	44.2%	4.73	1.5	23	425	150	275	4.5	45%	55%	45%	43%	14%	.25
ARIZ Defense	12	31.8	27.7	44.6%	4.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	45%	44%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TTU Defense	13	34.8	32.8	43.6%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	44%	44%	13%	.23
ARIZ Offense	12	21.8	24.6	38.5%	3.53	1.7	19	355	107	248	3.9	39%	61%	37%	40%	16%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas Tech	13	27:50	22.8	49%	52%	7	59.4	1.5	1.6	4.6	1.5	2	31
Arizona	12	29:45	18.5	43%	42%	6.5	57.6	1.7	1.2	4.8	1.7	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TTU Offense	13	45% (104)	45% (49)	33.2	149.6	4.5	24 (45)	.17 (46)	3.17 (45)	72% (81)	8% (38)	1.05 (42)
ARIZ Defense	12	51% (73)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.18 (100)	3.32 (115)	78% (99)	9% (94)	1.08 (109)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TTU Defense	13	45% (16)	44% (76)	-	-	-	-	.12 (69)	2.75 (30)	62% (14)	8% (108)	1.08 (111)
ARIZ Offense	12	39% (127)	37% (126)	27.4	106.7	3.9	11 (116)	.03 (112)	2.64 (123)	55% (134)	9% (59)	1.21 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TTU Offense	13	55% (27)	43% (51)	24.3	38.6	275.4	7.1	11.3	30 (9)	9 (48)	.31 (44)	1.6 (77)	32% (81)	34% (39)	.39 (45)	6% (66)	2 (89)
ARIZ Defense	12	48% (61)	44% (109)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.31 (103)	1.6 (66)	31% (88)	32% (95)	.39 (101)	5% (93)	2.2 (105)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TTU Defense	13	54% (120)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.33 (108)	1.7 (106)	31% (91)	36% (120)	.45 (116)	4% (124)	2.1 (94)
ARIZ Offense	12	61% (8)	40% (91)	21.8	36.4	247.9	6.8	11.4	18 (68)	13 (103)	.22 (88)	1.6 (44)	36% (124)	31% (70)	.33 (71)	6% (88)	2.1 (35)

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 2.09 #55
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 22.17 #49
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 13.59 #99
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Texas Tech's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas Tech's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #54
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 2.09 Arizona: -2.755

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas Tech: 4.3 Arizona: -2.8

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: -2.755 #90
Arizona's Offense Rating: 17.72 #87
Arizona's Defense Rating: 14.40 #104
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Arizona's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Arizona's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.8 #82
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 37.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.4
Defense: 34.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas Tech's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas Tech 34
Arizona 28

Total Points: 62

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona 34
Texas Tech 26

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 32
Arizona 28

Total Points: 60

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.7

Arizona's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Arizona	22	Texas Tech	28	Arizona -6	Texas Tech	64.0	Under
2019	09/14	Arizona	28	Texas Tech	14	Texas Tech -1	Arizona	75.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona	1	1	0 Overs
Texas Tech	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#55) TTU at (#90) ARIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TTU	ARIZ
Power RatePwr	#55	#90
SP+SP+	#54	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#84	#99
OffenseOff	#40	#82
DefenseDef	#122	#118
Spec TeamsST	#24	#53
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#33	#41

Texas Tech Notes(12/5) Hired Tex St OC Mack Leftwich
(11/23) Morton torched bad Pokes. Pass Def was awful
(11/13) 10-0 lead gone vs CU, Rgame bad, Morton OK
(11/2) Big W @ ISU, still had 10 flags, 2 TOs, outgained
(10/30) QB Morton to start vs Iowa State
(10/30) Gagged 31-14 lead vs TCU, backup QB TOs cost
(10/27) QB Morton inj, Fr Hammond took over vs TCU
(10/19) Typical Tech, killed by Baylor. Shit coach/team
(10/7) 3 big W's. Morton is hot, Pass & Run game decent
(9/23) QB Morton meh, Def better in W vs ASU
(9/8) D allowed 301 yds rushing vs Wazzu. 4 TOs. Woof
(9/1) Def Awful, Abl Chris 506 yds passing, 51 pts in OT W,
Texas Tech Injury Report

Arizona Notes(12/13) Hired OC Seth Doege (Marsh/Purdue/USC)
(12/13) OC Babers lost playcalling in Nov/not renewed
(12/1) 1-7 finish, killed by ASU, Off was awful, Def worse
(11/25) Killed by TCU, Rgame/Def abysmal, Fifita meh
(11/18) Off the mat W vs Hou, stats even but forced 3 TOs
(11/2) 5 Straight L's, Off awful, Def awful. Sinking
(10/28) -6.25 pgg via TOs, bottom 10 in CFB thru 8 gms
(10/27) Four straight L's, Rgame awful, D bad vs WVU
(10/19) Unserious FB team. Just 245 yds vs Colorado?
(10/12) 4 TOs and bad defense = killed by BYU
(10/7) Scoring Opp Off/Def awful. 6 FG att @ TT (L)
(10/1) Great W (Utah), Rgame was good, Run D was great
Arizona Injury Report

Texas Tech on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	TTU Off	ARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#40	#118
SuccessSuc	#50	#100
ExplosiveExp	#40	#96
PPAPPA	#33	#109
PowerPwr	#49	#104
SP+SP+	#25	#84
Pts POPPO	#7	#125
HavocHav	#36	#99

Texas Tech Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	TTU Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#46	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#49	#90
Run ExplRExp	#42	#109
PPAExp	#46	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#102
TackleTak	-	#127

Texas Tech Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	TTU Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#51	#109
Pass ExplPExl	#77	#66
PPAExp	#44	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#24	#75
F7 HavocF7	#38	#94
DB HavocDB	#66	#93

Arizona on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	TTU Def
Perf GradePerf	#82	#122
SuccessSuc	#117	#93
ExplosiveExp	#3	#120
PPAPPA	#93	#104
PowerPwr	#87	#99
SP+SP+	#90	#95
Pts POPPO	#101	#83
HavocHav	#65	#123

Arizona Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	TTU Def
Run GameRun	#92	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	#126	#76
Run ExplRExp	#6	#111
PPAExp	#112	#69
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	#123	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#35
TackleTak	-	#133

Arizona Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 61%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	TTU Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#91	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#106
PPAExp	#88	#108
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#16	#108
F7 HavocF7	#59	#108
DB HavocDB	#88	#124

Program Comparison
ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 89°

Rematch from Week 6
Arizona -6.0 (64.0)
Texas Tech won at Arizona this year (28-22)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat Arizona last year (28-22)

TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Behren Morton	293	463	63%	3300	27	8	7.1
Will Hammond	15	23	65%	191	1	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Brooks	286	1505	17	5.3	40
Cameron Dickey	25	150	1	6.0	37
J'Koby Williams	26	113	1	4.3	13
Cameran Brown (Tr)	8	83	0	10.4	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Kelly (Tr)	89	1023	5	11.5	41
Caleb Douglas (Tr)	55	765	6	13.9	57
Coy Eakin	45	605	6	13.4	70
Jalin Conyers (Tr)	25	271	5	10.8	36

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
Ben Roberts	74	5	0	4	0
C.J. Baskerville	60	3	0	0	3
Maurion Horn	46	2	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
Terrell Tilmon	8	4	4	0	0
Isaac Smith	31	4	3	1	0
Harvey Dyson III	10	3	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurion Horn	46	2	0	1	4
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
C.J. Baskerville	60	3	0	0	3

ARIZ's OC Dino Babers (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	260	430	61%	2958	18	12	6.9
Cole Tannenbaum	1	5	20%	3	0	1	0.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quali Conley (Tr)	150	745	8	5.0	58
Kedrick Reescano (Tr)	78	359	1	4.6	56
Jacory Merritt	13	106	1	8.2	36
Kayden Luke	5	20	0	4.0	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tetairoa Mcmillan	84	1319	8	15.7	78
Chris Hunter	35	323	3	9.2	45
Quali Conley (Tr)	39	245	1	6.3	16
Keyan Burnett	18	217	1	12.1	35

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Duane Akina (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dalton Johnson	78	5	0	0	2
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	0	6
Owen Goss (Tr)	49	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Smith (Tr)	48	7	5	2	0
Taye Brown	64	4	3	1	2
Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei	33	7	3	3	1
Chase Kennedy (Tr)	17	4	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Genesis Smith	60	4	0	6
Tacario Davis	39	2	1	6
Emmanuel Karnley	14	0	0	5