California at SMU - 2024 Matchup Preview
California logo California Golden Bears at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
SMU -11.5 (54.5) (-500)  Open: -13.5 | 56.5
SMU 38 - California: 6  (ACC)

 
Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (19 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
CAL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: SMU -14.5   (SP+ SMU -14)

Projected Score: CAL: 20 - SMU: 34 (53)
SMU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
CAL Travel: 1472 miles, 2 hrs behind
Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (44 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
California's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 California vs UC Davis-20.556.5W 31 - 13UN
Sat 9/7 California at Auburn+11.552.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/14 California vs San Diego State-18.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 9/21 California at Florida State+3.044.0L 9 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 California vs Miami+10.054.0L 38 - 39OY
Sat 10/12 California at Pittsburgh+3.557.5L 15 - 17UY
Sat 10/19 California vs NC State-9.546.0L 23 - 24ON
Sat 10/26 California vs Oregon State-13.051.0W 44 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8 California at Wake Forest-7.554.5W 46 - 36OY
Sat 11/16 California vs Syracuse-10.558.0L 25 - 33UN
Sat 11/23 California vs Stanford-15.053.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/30 California at SMU+11.554.5L 6 - 38UN
Wed 12/18 California vs UNLV+3.045.0L 13 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 SMU at Nevada-28.055.5W 29 - 24UN
Sat 8/31 SMU vs Houston Christian-32.5
Fri 9/6 SMU vs BYU-12.555.5L 15 - 18UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 SMU vs TCU+1.058.5W 66 - 42OY
Sat 9/28 SMU vs Florida State-6.046.0W 42 - 16OY
Sat 10/5 SMU at Louisville+6.555.0W 34 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 SMU at Stanford-16.552.5W 40 - 10UY
Sat 10/26 SMU at Duke-11.549.5W 28 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.055.5W 48 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 SMU vs Boston College-19.054.5W 38 - 28ON
Sat 11/23 SMU at Virginia-11.554.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 11/30 SMU vs California-11.554.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 12/7 SMU vs Clemson-2.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 12/21 SMU at Penn State+9.052.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 5, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#61 (.21)41% (88)25.144% (59)3.39 (13)17338% (103)2184.12 (46)#87 (.21)45% (112)22.347% (103)44% (108)4.4 (118)44.82.22.2
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)36.547% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)22.137% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Offense1325.119.440.5%4.122.2213911732184.550%49%44%38%18%.21
SMU Defense1422.120.335.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Defense1322.323.845%4.42.2 - - - - - 47%52%47%44%16%.21
SMU Offense1436.543.743.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
California1328:4021.439%52%5.544.82.22.24.51.9131.2
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Offense1350% (68)44% (59)38.2173.14.526 (30).24 (23)3.39 (13)75% (60)11% (86)1.11 (20)
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Defense1347% (32)47% (103) - - - - .14 (67)3.1 (67)73% (66)9% (98)0.98 (55)
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Offense1349% (64)38% (103)19.833.4218.26.51122 (61)16 (121).21 (92)1.6 (49)33% (84)27% (96).33 (70)7% (97)2 (67)
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Defense1352% (103)44% (108) - - - - - - 12 (37).3 (88)1.5 (34)27% (129)35% (121).36 (91)7% (40)1.8 (10)
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 4.77 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 756.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 4.77   SMU: 19.045

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: 4.0   SMU: 17.5




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 19.045 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.4
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 34
California 20


Projected Total Points: 53
SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30SMU38California6SMUSMU -11.5SMU54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU110 Overs
California001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#44) California Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.77 #44
Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40
Talent Rating: 756.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.07 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Great in Scoring Position 3.23 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


California Notes
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games
California     Ratings Matchup     SMU
Power #44
#13
Off #85
#28
Def #39
#5
Talent #40
#47
SP+ #55
#12
SP+ Off #65
#5
SP+ Def #40
#30

Rematch from Week 14
SMU -11.5 (54.5)
SMU won vs California this year (38-6)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat California last year (38-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 59° - Wind: 6 mph


Team Information
Injuries: CAL | SMU
Depth Chart: CAL | SMU
Rosters: CAL | SMU
(#13) SMU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 19.045 #13
Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30
Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #47
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.41 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Great in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position



  
California's OC Mike Bloesch
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza26538669%30041667.8
CJ Harris (Tr)193161%184015.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaivian Thomas10062676.375
Jadyn Ott11638543.353
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)2612414.860
Fernando Mendoza8710521.250
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jack Endries56623211.157
Nyziah Hunter40578514.560
Trond Grizzell27401114.951
Jonathan Brady (Tr)34366310.830

View California's Full Roster
California's DC Peter Sirmon
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
Cade Uluave683152
Marcus Harris (Tr)443005
Aidan Keanaaina (Tr)433111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
David Reese228512
Ryan McCulloch185381
Nathan Burrell295311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Harris (Tr)443005
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
Cameron Sidney293113

SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Preston Stone305159%421518.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)2341330145.771
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
LJ Johnson Jr.7430354.135
Derrick McFall2610624.117
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
Matthew Hibner (Tr)24368415.380
R.J. Maryland24359415.049
Brashard Smith (Tr)3932748.433

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmaad Moses646003
Alex Kilgore553103
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)3013891
Isaiah Smith319761
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
Cam Robertson296330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deuce Harmon (Tr)282006
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmaad Moses646003