California at SMU - 2024 Matchup Preview

California Golden Bears at SMU Mustangs(#21)

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
SMU -11.5 (54.5) (-500) Open: -13.5 | 56.5
SMU 38 - California: 6 (ACC)

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (19 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CAL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: SMU -14.5 (SP+ SMU -14)
Projected Score: CAL: 21 - SMU: 36 (57)
SMU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
CAL Travel: 1472 miles, 2 hrs behind

Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (44 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CAL Players
SMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

California's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	California vs UC Davis	-20.5	56.5	W 31 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/7	California at Auburn	+11.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	California vs San Diego State	-18.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/21	California at Florida State	+3.0	44.0	L 9 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	California vs Miami	+10.0	54.0	L 38 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	California at Pittsburgh	+3.5	57.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/19	California vs NC State	-9.5	46.0	L 23 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/26	California vs Oregon State	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	California at Wake Forest	-7.5	54.5	W 46 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/16	California vs Syracuse	-10.5	58.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/23	California vs Stanford	-15.0	53.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/30	California at SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/18	California vs UNLV	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule

SMU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	SMU at Nevada	-28.0	55.5	W 29 - 24	U	N
Sat 8/31	SMU vs Houston Christian	-32.5
Fri 9/6	SMU vs BYU	-12.5	55.5	L 15 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	SMU vs TCU	+1.0	58.5	W 66 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/28	SMU vs Florida State	-6.0	46.0	W 42 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/5	SMU at Louisville	+6.5	55.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	SMU at Stanford	-16.5	52.5	W 40 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	SMU at Duke	-11.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	SMU vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	55.5	W 48 - 25	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	SMU vs Boston College	-19.0	54.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/23	SMU at Virginia	-11.5	54.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/30	SMU vs California	-11.5	54.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/7	SMU vs Clemson	-2.5	56.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/21	SMU at Penn State	+9.0	52.5	L 10 - 38	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)	25.1	40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)	22.3	41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)	36.5	44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)	22.1	39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)		40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)		41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)		44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)		39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Offense	13	25.1	19.4	41.5%	3.07	0.8	21	381	122	259	3.6	41%	58%	40%	43%	18%	.17
SMU Defense	14	22.1	20.3	36.7%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	39%	35%	18%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Defense	13	22.3	23.8	40.4%	3.23	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	41%	40%	18%	.14
SMU Offense	14	36.5	43.7	44.1%	4.41	1.7	23	432	169	263	4.4	51%	49%	44%	44%	15%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
California	13	30:36	20.7	37%	44%	7.4	59.7	0.8	1.7	5.4	2.5	2	29.6
SMU	14	28:28	22.6	44%	50%	8.1	77.7	1.7	1.6	6.6	3.1	3	31.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Offense	13	41% (121)	40% (104)	33.7	122.2	3.6	17 (84)	.07 (99)	2.68 (120)	69% (98)	13% (126)	1.1 (22)
SMU Defense	14	44% (9)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-.05 (2)	2.72 (25)	60% (10)	11% (36)	0.81 (6)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Defense	13	47% (28)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.08 (44)	2.99 (65)	86% (129)	10% (72)	0.91 (37)
SMU Offense	14	51% (65)	44% (62)	38.3	168.9	4.4	29 (18)	.12 (77)	2.97 (83)	70% (90)	9% (49)	0.93 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Offense	13	58% (14)	43% (57)	23.2	35.7	258.6	7.3	11.1	16 (87)	7 (26)	.25 (72)	1.4 (126)	36% (128)	30% (85)	.36 (58)	5% (23)	2.2 (23)
SMU Defense	14	55% (124)	35% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.11 (17)	1.7 (107)	37% (7)	27% (21)	.16 (12)	7% (30)	2.1 (96)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Defense	13	53% (103)	40% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.21 (52)	1.7 (92)	33% (44)	30% (59)	.39 (102)	8% (12)	2.2 (111)
SMU Offense	14	49% (70)	44% (45)	19.9	31.2	262.9	8.4	13.2	28 (15)	12 (85)	.37 (19)	1.8 (11)	33% (94)	34% (34)	.47 (17)	6% (69)	2.3 (13)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 4.77 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 4.77 SMU: 19.045

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: 4.0 SMU: 17.5

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 19.045 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.4
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 36
California 21

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 35
California 32

Total Points: 67

Based on Entire Season
SMU 31
California 22

Total Points: 53

SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	California	38	SMU	35	SMU -13.5	California	53.5	Over
2024	11/30	SMU	38	California	6	SMU -11.5	SMU	54.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
SMU	1	1	1 Overs
California	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#44) CAL at (#13) SMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CAL	SMU
Power RatePwr	#44	#13
SP+SP+	#55	#12
Perf GradeGrade	#72	#14
OffenseOff	#93	#30
DefenseDef	#32	#13
Spec TeamsST	#13	#84
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#47

California Notes(12/24) Signed QB D Brown (Ohio St)
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games
(9/8) Huge W @ Aub. Def held to 286yds & 5 TOs
California Injury Report

SMU Injury Report

California on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	SMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#93	#13
SuccessSuc	#88	#9
ExplosiveExp	#52	#69
PPAPPA	#79	#5
PowerPwr	#85	#5
SP+SP+	#65	#30
Pts POPPO	#125	#13
HavocHav	#102	#29

California Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#107	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#104	#35
Run ExplRExp	#22	#6
PPAExp	#99	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#120	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#27
TackleTak	-	#43

California Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#126	#107
PPAExp	#72	#17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#90	#15
F7 HavocF7	#126	#36
DB HavocDB	#23	#30

SMU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	CAL Def
Perf GradePerf	#30	#32
SuccessSuc	#53	#52
ExplosiveExp	#21	#88
PPAPPA	#38	#48
PowerPwr	#28	#39
SP+SP+	#5	#40
Pts POPPO	#25	#20
HavocHav	#46	#42

SMU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#74	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#53
Run ExplRExp	#86	#37
PPAExp	#77	#44
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	#83	#65
Stuff RateStuff	#57	#71
TackleTak	-	#28

SMU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	#45	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#92
PPAExp	#19	#52
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#33	#45
F7 HavocF7	#49	#72
DB HavocDB	#69	#12

Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 59° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 14
SMU -11.5 (54.5)
SMU won vs California this year (38-6)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat California last year (38-6)

CAL's OC Mike Bloesch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	265	386	69%	3004	16	6	7.8
CJ Harris (Tr)	19	31	61%	184	0	1	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaivian Thomas	100	626	7	6.3	75
Jadyn Ott	116	385	4	3.3	53
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Fernando Mendoza	87	105	2	1.2	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Endries	56	623	2	11.1	57
Nyziah Hunter	40	578	5	14.5	60
Trond Grizzell	27	401	1	14.9	51
Jonathan Brady (Tr)	34	366	3	10.8	30

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
Craig Woodson	70	3	0	1	7
Cade Uluave	68	3	1	5	2
Nohl Williams	51	1	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Carlton	47	11	9	8	1
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
David Reese	22	8	5	1	2
Ryan McCulloch	18	5	3	8	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Nohl Williams	51	1	1	8
Craig Woodson	70	3	1	7
Lu-Magia Hearns III	12	0	0	5

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	248	381	65%	3189	23	11	8.4
Preston Stone	30	51	59%	421	5	1	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)	234	1330	14	5.7	71
Kevin Jennings	101	354	5	3.5	59
LJ Johnson Jr.	74	303	5	4.1	35
Roderick Daniels	44	160	3	3.6	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roderick Daniels	42	601	4	14.3	81
Keyshawn Smith	33	527	5	16.0	45
Jordan Hudson	39	422	5	10.8	42
Kelvontay Dixon	21	386	1	18.4	87

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson	102	6	3	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	95	3	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker	88	8	1	4	3
Ahmaad Moses	64	6	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)	30	13	8	9	1
Isaiah Smith	31	9	7	6	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)	40	8	7	5	0
Elijah Roberts	32	10	7	10	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonathan McGill	52	2	1	6
Brandon Crossley	30	1	1	6
Deuce Harmon (Tr)	28	2	0	6