Stanford at California - 2024 Matchup Preview

Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
California -15 (53.5) (-600) Open: -13.0
California 24 - Stanford: 21 (ACC)

Cardinal (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Troy Taylor (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 19 - 29 (13 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CAL 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: California -13 (SP+ CAL -12)
Projected Score: STAN: 19 - CAL: 32 (51)
CAL Win prob: 85% | Cover: 46%
STAN Travel: 31 miles

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
STAN Players
CAL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Stanford's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Stanford vs TCU	+8.0	58.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Stanford vs Cal Poly	-33.5	59.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/20	Stanford at Syracuse	+9.5	56.5	W 26 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Stanford at Clemson	+24.0	58.0	L 14 - 40	U	N
Sat 10/5	Stanford vs Virginia Tech	+9.5	50.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/12	Stanford at Notre Dame	+22.5	45.5	L 7 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/19	Stanford vs SMU	+16.5	52.5	L 10 - 40	U	N
Sat 10/26	Stanford vs Wake Forest	+3.0	53.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Stanford at NC State	+10.0	46.5	L 28 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Stanford vs Louisville	+21.0	57.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Stanford at California	+15.0	53.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Stanford at San José State	+2.5	54.5	L 31 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule

California's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	California vs UC Davis	-20.5	56.5	W 31 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/7	California at Auburn	+11.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	California vs San Diego State	-18.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/21	California at Florida State	+3.0	44.0	L 9 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	California vs Miami	+10.0	54.0	L 38 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	California at Pittsburgh	+3.5	57.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/19	California vs NC State	-9.5	46.0	L 23 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/26	California vs Oregon State	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	California at Wake Forest	-7.5	54.5	W 46 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/16	California vs Syracuse	-10.5	58.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/23	California vs Stanford	-15.0	53.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/30	California at SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/18	California vs UNLV	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
STAN	#114 (.1)	38% (114)	18.8	41% (95)	2.61 (130)	119	36% (114)	233	3.4 (101)	#133 (.35)	51% (133)	29.2	56% (133)	48% (129)	5.22 (133)	59.1	1.2	1
CAL	#61 (.21)	41% (88)	25.3	44% (59)	3.39 (13)	173	38% (103)	218	4.12 (46)	#87 (.21)	45% (112)	27.2	47% (103)	44% (108)	4.4 (118)	44.8	2.2	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
STAN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CAL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
STAN Offense	12	18.8	12.5	37.6%	3.4	1.2	20	352	119	233	3.4	42%	57%	41%	36%	21%	.1
CAL Defense	13	27.2	24.3	45%	4.4	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	47%	44%	16%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
STAN Defense	12	29.2	32.3	51.4%	5.22	1	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	56%	48%	11%	.35
CAL Offense	13	25.3	27.2	40.5%	4.12	2.2	21	391	173	218	4.5	50%	49%	44%	38%	18%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Stanford	12	31:16	19.5	36%	33%	6.3	59.1	1.2	1	4.3	1.9	0	27.2
California	13	28:40	21.4	39%	52%	5.5	44.8	2.2	2.2	4.5	1.9	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
STAN Offense	12	42% (114)	41% (95)	34.5	118.8	3.4	15 (100)	.06 (114)	2.61 (130)	71% (90)	13% (122)	0.99 (74)
CAL Defense	13	47% (32)	47% (103)	-	-	-	-	.14 (67)	3.1 (67)	73% (66)	9% (98)	0.98 (55)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
STAN Defense	12	45% (13)	56% (133)	-	-	-	-	.25 (120)	3.45 (124)	76% (87)	7% (129)	0.9 (25)
CAL Offense	13	50% (68)	44% (59)	38.2	173.1	4.5	26 (30)	.24 (23)	3.39 (13)	75% (60)	11% (86)	1.11 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
STAN Offense	12	57% (17)	36% (114)	19.4	35.6	233	6.6	12	11 (117)	10 (56)	.16 (106)	1.5 (84)	36% (120)	29% (77)	.28 (87)	8% (126)	2 (71)
CAL Defense	13	52% (103)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.3 (88)	1.5 (34)	27% (129)	35% (121)	.36 (91)	7% (40)	1.8 (10)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
STAN Defense	12	55% (124)	48% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.45 (130)	1.7 (89)	29% (125)	41% (133)	.66 (133)	4% (130)	2.1 (93)
CAL Offense	13	49% (64)	38% (103)	19.8	33.4	218.2	6.5	11	22 (61)	16 (121)	.21 (92)	1.6 (49)	33% (84)	27% (96)	.33 (70)	7% (97)	2 (67)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -4.38 #79
Stanford's Offense Rating: 18.63 #80
Stanford's Defense Rating: 15.49 #112
2024 Talent Rating: 410.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Stanford's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Stanford's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #112

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -4.38 California: 6.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -8.2 California: 4.0

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 6.885 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 386.00 #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.5
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

Stanford's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
California 32
Stanford 19

Projected Total Points: 51

California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Stanford	31	California	10	California -4.5	Stanford	47.5	Under
2024	11/23	California	24	Stanford	21	California -15	Stanford	53.5	Under
2023	11/18	Stanford	15	California	27	California -6.5	California	52.5	Under
2022	11/19	California	27	Stanford	20	California -5	California	46.0	Over
2021	11/20	Stanford	11	California	41	California -2.5	California	46.0	Over
2020	11/27	California	23	Stanford	24	Stanford -2	California	51.0	Under
2019	11/23	Stanford	20	California	24	California -1	California	41.5	Over
2018	12/01	California	13	Stanford	23	Stanford -3	Stanford	46.5	Under
2017	11/18	Stanford	17	California	14	Stanford -14	California	56.5	Under
2016	11/19	California	31	Stanford	45	Stanford -11	Stanford	60.5	Over
2015	11/21	Stanford	35	California	22	Stanford -12.5	Stanford	63.0	Under
2014	11/22	California	17	Stanford	38	Stanford -6.5	Stanford	0
2013	11/23	Stanford	63	California	13	Stanford -28.5	Stanford	0
2012	10/20	California	3	Stanford	21
2011	11/19	Stanford	31	California	28
2010	11/20	California	14	Stanford	48
2009	11/21	Stanford	28	California	34
2008	11/22	California	37	Stanford	16
2007	12/01	Stanford	20	California	13
2006	12/02	California	26	Stanford	17
2005	11/19	Stanford	3	California	27
2004	11/20	California	41	Stanford	6
2003	11/22	Stanford	16	California	28
2001	11/17	Stanford	35	California	28
2000	11/17	California	30	Stanford	36

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
California	11	6	4 Overs
Stanford	14	7	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	5 - 8	3 - 2	2 - 6
Road Teams	13 - 12	8 - 5	6 - 2	2 - 3

(#79) STAN at (#44) CAL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	STAN	CAL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#79	#44
SP+SP+	#101	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#112	#72
OffenseOff	#121	#93
DefenseDef	#106	#32
Spec TeamsST	#6	#13
TalentTal	#31	#41
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#38

Stanford Notes(11/29) Def torched by SJSU, Daniels 3 Int, Rgame meh
(11/29) Taylor 6-18 in 2 years, but is Stan serious?
(11/23) Daniels awful vs Cal, Rgame bad. Rough L
(11/18) At this pt why is 4 star QB Brown not playing?
(11/18) QB Daniels torched L'ville, Rgame awful, D held on
(11/18) Mosley V emerging top WR. 13/168/3 TD vs L'ville
(10/21) QB Daniels inj in SMU game, looks out for Wake
(10/20) Lost 11 straight at home vs FBS into Wake game
(10/12) 3 straight routs, Off v limited, Def wilts eventually
(9/23) QB Daniels limited but mobile QB. Rgame better?
(8/31) Def looked improved vs TCU, opportunistic
(8/19) WR Ayomanor who abused T. Hunter back (1K yds)
Stanford Injury Report

California Notes(12/24) Signed QB D Brown (Ohio St)
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games
(9/8) Huge W @ Aub. Def held to 286yds & 5 TOs
California Injury Report

Stanford on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	STAN Off	CAL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#121	#32
SuccessSuc	#114	#112
ExplosiveExp	#68	#47
PPAPPA	#114	#87
PowerPwr	#80	#39
SP+SP+	#90	#40
Pts POPPO	#101	#118
HavocHav	#128	#75

Stanford Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	STAN Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#127	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#95	#103
Run ExplRExp	#74	#55
PPAExp	#114	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	#130	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#93
TackleTak	-	#28

Stanford Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	STAN Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#119	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	#114	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#84	#34
PPAExp	#106	#88
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#94	#45
F7 HavocF7	#122	#98
DB HavocDB	#126	#40

California on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	STAN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#106
SuccessSuc	#88	#133
ExplosiveExp	#34	#63
PPAPPA	#61	#133
PowerPwr	#85	#112
SP+SP+	#65	#112
Pts POPPO	#46	#133
HavocHav	#93	#133

California Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	STAN Def
Run GameRun	#107	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	#59	#133
Run ExplRExp	#20	#25
PPAExp	#23	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#13	#124
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#98
TackleTak	-	#98

California Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	STAN Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#117
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#89
PPAExp	#92	#130
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#90	#53
F7 HavocF7	#86	#129
DB HavocDB	#97	#130

Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
California -15.0 (53.5)
California won vs Stanford this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Stanford beat California last year (31-10)
California beat Stanford in 2024 (24-21)
California beat Stanford in 2023 (27-15)

STAN's OC Troy Taylor (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ashton Daniels	170	271	63%	1700	10	12	6.3
Elijah Brown	28	48	58%	274	2	3	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ashton Daniels	148	669	3	4.5	67
Micah Ford	76	309	0	4.1	26
Chris Davis Jr.	54	288	0	5.3	47
Cole Tabb	27	130	0	4.8	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elic Ayomanor	63	831	6	13.2	60
Emmett Mosley V	48	525	6	10.9	62
Sam Roush	40	334	2	8.4	28
Ismael Cisse	26	241	2	9.3	25

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April III (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gaethan Bernadel	86	6	1	2	1
Scotty Edwards	80	2	0	0	2
Tristan Sinclair	77	7	2	5	1
Mitch Leigber	54	4	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Bailey	31	8	6	8	0
Tevarua Tafiti	41	7	4	3	0
Tobin Phillips	16	5	4	1	0
Zach Buckey	11	6	3	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Collin Wright	45	3	5
Aaron Morris	32	0	4
Zahran Manley	12	0	3

CAL's OC Mike Bloesch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	265	386	69%	3004	16	6	7.8
CJ Harris (Tr)	19	31	61%	184	0	1	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaivian Thomas	100	626	7	6.3	75
Jadyn Ott	116	385	4	3.3	53
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Fernando Mendoza	87	105	2	1.2	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Endries	56	623	2	11.1	57
Nyziah Hunter	40	578	5	14.5	60
Trond Grizzell	27	401	1	14.9	51
Jonathan Brady (Tr)	34	366	3	10.8	30

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
Craig Woodson	70	3	0	1	7
Cade Uluave	68	3	1	5	2
Nohl Williams	51	1	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Carlton	47	11	9	8	1
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
David Reese	22	8	5	1	2
Ryan McCulloch	18	5	3	8	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Nohl Williams	51	1	1	8
Craig Woodson	70	3	1	7
Lu-Magia Hearns III	12	0	0	5