Boston College at SMU - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
SMU -19 (54.5) (-1050) Open: -15.5
SMU 38 - Boston College: 28 (ACC)

Eagles (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bill O'Brien (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 24 (22 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.7 MPH
SMU coming off BYE
Our Line: SMU -17 (SP+ SMU -16)
Projected Score: BC: 20 - SMU: 37 (56)
SMU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
BC Travel: 1541 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (44 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BC Players
SMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boston College's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/2	Boston College at Florida State	+16.5	50.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Boston College vs Duquesne	-33.5	52.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Boston College at Missouri	+14.5	51.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Boston College vs Michigan State	-4.5	45.5	W 23 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/28	Boston College vs Western Kentucky	-7.5	48.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Boston College at Virginia	+2.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/17	Boston College at Virginia Tech	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 42	O	N
Fri 10/25	Boston College vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 27 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Boston College vs Syracuse	-5.5	51.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Boston College at SMU	+19.0	54.5	L 28 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boston College vs North Carolina	+2.0	50.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Boston College vs Pittsburgh	-3.5	50.5	W 34 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/28	Boston College vs Nebraska	+3.0	47.5	L 15 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boston College's Schedule

SMU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	SMU at Nevada	-28.0	55.5	W 29 - 24	U	N
Sat 8/31	SMU vs Houston Christian	-32.5
Fri 9/6	SMU vs BYU	-12.5	55.5	L 15 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	SMU vs TCU	+1.0	58.5	W 66 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/28	SMU vs Florida State	-6.0	46.0	W 42 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/5	SMU at Louisville	+6.5	55.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	SMU at Stanford	-16.5	52.5	W 40 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	SMU at Duke	-11.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	SMU vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	55.5	W 48 - 25	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	SMU vs Boston College	-19.0	54.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/23	SMU at Virginia	-11.5	54.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/30	SMU vs California	-11.5	54.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/7	SMU vs Clemson	-2.5	56.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/21	SMU at Penn State	+9.0	52.5	L 10 - 38	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)	28.2	41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)	23.8	40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)	36.5	44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)	22.1	39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)		41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)		40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)		44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)		39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BC Offense	13	28.2	22.4	40.9%	4	1.2	18	340	164	176	4.3	56%	44%	41%	41%	13%	.16
SMU Defense	14	22.1	20.3	36.7%	3.09	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	39%	35%	18%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BC Defense	13	23.8	28.8	42.2%	3.64	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	40%	44%	16%	.15
SMU Offense	14	36.5	43.7	44.1%	4.41	1.7	23	432	169	263	4.4	51%	49%	44%	44%	15%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boston College	13	29:25	17.8	43%	50%	4.2	40	1.2	1.8	4.7	2	3	30.3
SMU	14	28:28	22.6	44%	50%	8.1	77.7	1.7	1.6	6.6	3.1	3	31.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BC Offense	13	56% (26)	41% (96)	38.2	164.2	4.3	22 (55)	.01 (120)	2.87 (99)	72% (79)	9% (53)	0.86 (120)
SMU Defense	14	44% (9)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-.05 (2)	2.72 (25)	60% (10)	11% (36)	0.81 (6)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BC Defense	13	45% (12)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	.05 (33)	2.84 (43)	82% (120)	9% (96)	0.92 (40)
SMU Offense	14	51% (65)	44% (62)	38.3	168.9	4.4	29 (18)	.12 (77)	2.97 (83)	70% (90)	9% (49)	0.93 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BC Offense	13	44% (108)	41% (78)	13.9	22.2	176.2	7.9	12.7	24 (38)	7 (26)	.34 (29)	1.9 (7)	30% (50)	32% (68)	.34 (68)	4% (12)	2.3 (11)
SMU Defense	14	55% (124)	35% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.11 (17)	1.7 (107)	37% (7)	27% (21)	.16 (12)	7% (30)	2.1 (96)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BC Defense	13	55% (123)	44% (104)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.23 (67)	1.4 (12)	32% (71)	29% (43)	.2 (26)	7% (36)	1.8 (22)
SMU Offense	14	49% (70)	44% (45)	19.9	31.2	262.9	8.4	13.2	28 (15)	12 (85)	.37 (19)	1.8 (11)	33% (94)	34% (34)	.47 (17)	6% (69)	2.3 (13)

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: 2.59 #51
Boston College's Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Boston College's Defense Rating: 8.62 #58
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Boston College's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Boston College's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #70
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #62
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #56

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boston College: 2.59 SMU: 19.045

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boston College: 1.2 SMU: 17.5

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 19.045 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Boston College Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.4
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Boston College's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 37
Boston College 20

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 38
Boston College 22

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
SMU 33
Boston College 23

Total Points: 56

SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Boston College	13	SMU	45	SMU -10.5	SMU	54.5	Over
2024	11/16	SMU	38	Boston College	28	SMU -19	Boston College	54.5	Over
2023	12/28	Boston College	23	SMU	14	SMU -13.5	Boston College	49.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
SMU	2	1	2 Overs
Boston College	1	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#51) BC at (#13) SMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BC	SMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#51	#13
SP+SP+	#70	#12
Perf GradeGrade	#56	#14
OffenseOff	#64	#30
DefenseDef	#33	#13
Spec TeamsST	#114	#84
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#47

Boston College Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled NC, James OK, Def great in W
(11/18) Good fight @ SMU, QB James/Rgame meh, Def OK
(11/14) QB Castellanos entering the portal
(11/13) Rgame 321 yds, 6.7 ypc, att only 13 pass in Cuse W
(11/12) QB Cast. benched, James to start vs SMU
(11/8) No Kicking game, att only 1 FG, missed XPs
(10/17) Run D mauled by VT 368 yds, 9.2 ypc. Rgame bad
(10/6) Off bad, Rgame awful, 3 TO's in L @ UVA
(9/28) OG by WKU, Off awful w/ QB James. 3 TOs to W
(9/27) QB Castellanos out vs WKU (und inj)
(9/23) QB Cast. much improved. 10 TDs, 2 Ints so far
(9/23) Outgained by MSU but 4 TOs in big W
Boston College Injury Report

SMU Injury Report

Boston College on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	SMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#13
SuccessSuc	#93	#9
ExplosiveExp	#42	#69
PPAPPA	#89	#5
PowerPwr	#75	#5
SP+SP+	#62	#30
Pts POPPO	#58	#13
HavocHav	#24	#29

Boston College Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#104	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#96	#35
Run ExplRExp	#120	#6
PPAExp	#120	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#25
Stuff RateStuff	#64	#27
TackleTak	-	#43

Boston College Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#7	#107
PPAExp	#29	#17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#35	#15
F7 HavocF7	#53	#36
DB HavocDB	#12	#30

SMU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	BC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#33
SuccessSuc	#53	#74
ExplosiveExp	#21	#30
PPAPPA	#38	#56
PowerPwr	#28	#58
SP+SP+	#5	#56
Pts POPPO	#25	#51
HavocHav	#46	#72

SMU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	BC Def
Run GameRun	#74	#30
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#40
Run ExplRExp	#86	#40
PPAExp	#77	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	#83	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#57	#67
TackleTak	-	#39

SMU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	BC Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	#45	#104
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#12
PPAExp	#19	#67
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#33	#62
F7 HavocF7	#49	#96
DB HavocDB	#69	#36

Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

BC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 74° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 12
SMU -19.0 (54.5)
SMU won vs Boston College this year (38-28)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Boston College last year (38-28)
Boston College beat SMU in 2023 (23-14)

BC's OC Will Lawing (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Grayson James (Tr)	106	166	64%	1202	6	2	7.2
Thomas Castellanos	99	161	62%	1366	18	5	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kye Robichaux	175	744	10	4.3	41
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	77	406	2	5.3	36
Jordan Mcdonald (Tr)	53	361	3	6.8	41
Turbo Richard	55	278	2	5.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lewis Bond	67	689	3	10.3	49
Reed Harris	17	486	4	28.6	72
Kamari Morales (Tr)	28	325	6	11.6	54
Jeremiah Franklin	27	311	3	11.5	34

View Boston College's Full Roster

BC's DC Tim Lewis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3
Carter Davis	43	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Quintayvious Hutchins	29	6	4	8	0
Owen Stoudmire	29	4	3	2	0
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Ryan Turner (Tr)	13	2	1	0	4
Amari Jackson	18	0	0	0	4

SMU's OC Rob Likens (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	248	381	65%	3189	23	11	8.4
Preston Stone	30	51	59%	421	5	1	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)	234	1330	14	5.7	71
Kevin Jennings	101	354	5	3.5	59
LJ Johnson Jr.	74	303	5	4.1	35
Roderick Daniels	44	160	3	3.6	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roderick Daniels	42	601	4	14.3	81
Keyshawn Smith	33	527	5	16.0	45
Jordan Hudson	39	422	5	10.8	42
Kelvontay Dixon	21	386	1	18.4	87

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson	102	6	3	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	95	3	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker	88	8	1	4	3
Ahmaad Moses	64	6	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)	30	13	8	9	1
Isaiah Smith	31	9	7	6	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)	40	8	7	5	0
Elijah Roberts	32	10	7	10	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonathan McGill	52	2	1	6
Brandon Crossley	30	1	1	6
Deuce Harmon (Tr)	28	2	0	6