SMU at Nevada - 2024 Matchup Preview
SMU logo (#16)SMU Mustangs at Nevada Wolf PackNevada logo
Saturday, August 24th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
SMU -28.0 (55.5) (-3500)  Open: -25.5 | 57.5
SMU 29 - Nevada: 24

 
Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: SMU -28.5   (SP+ SMU -32.5)
Projected Score: SMU: 42 - NEV: 13 (55)
SMU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
SMU Travel: 1361 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 SMU at Nevada-28.055.5W 29 - 24UN
Sat 8/31 SMU vs Houston Christian-32.5
Fri 9/6 SMU vs BYU-12.555.5L 15 - 18UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 SMU vs TCU+1.058.5W 66 - 42OY
Sat 9/28 SMU vs Florida State-6.046.0W 42 - 16OY
Sat 10/5 SMU at Louisville+6.555.0W 34 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 SMU at Stanford-16.552.5W 40 - 10UY
Sat 10/26 SMU at Duke-11.549.5W 28 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.055.5W 48 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 SMU vs Boston College-19.054.5W 38 - 28ON
Sat 11/23 SMU at Virginia-11.554.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 11/30 SMU vs California-11.554.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 12/7 SMU vs Clemson-2.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 12/21 SMU at Penn State+9.052.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Nevada's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Nevada vs SMU+28.055.5L 24 - 29UY
Sat 8/31 Nevada at Troy+7.544.5W 28 - 26OY
Sat 9/7 Nevada vs Georgia Southern-1.556.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 9/14 Nevada at Minnesota+17.544.5L 0 - 27UN
Sat 9/21 Nevada vs Eastern Washington-13.554.5W 49 - 16OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Nevada at San José State+7.051.5L 31 - 35OY
Sat 10/12 Nevada vs Oregon State+3.047.0W 42 - 37OY
Fri 10/18 Nevada vs Fresno State+3.050.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Nevada at Hawai'i+2.542.0L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/2 Nevada vs Colorado State+2.045.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Nevada at Boise State+23.560.5L 21 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Nevada vs Air Force-3.044.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 11/30 Nevada at UNLV+17.554.5L 14 - 38UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)36.544% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)22.139% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)23.147% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)28.849% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)47% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)49% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1436.52944.1%4.411.7234321692634.451%49%44%44%15%.24
NEV Defense1328.826.646.4%4.331 - - - - - 56%44%49%43%14%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1422.122.236.7%3.091.6 - - - - - 44%55%39%35%18%.03
NEV Offense1323.127.644.5%3.881.2193771642134.653%47%47%42%16%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1428:2822.644%50%8.177.71.71.66.63.1331.1
Nevada1331:0219.545%52%7.673.11.214.21.1126.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1451% (65)44% (62)38.3168.94.429 (18).12 (77)2.97 (83)70% (90)9% (49)0.93 (86)
NEV Defense1356% (126)49% (121) - - - - .27 (130)3.17 (91)80% (109)8% (119)1.08 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1444% (9)39% (35) - - - - -.05 (2)2.72 (25)60% (10)11% (36)0.81 (6)
NEV Offense1353% (47)47% (33)35.4164.24.621 (59).16 (51)3.06 (59)69% (93)10% (81)0.97 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1449% (70)44% (45)19.931.2262.98.413.228 (15)12 (85).37 (19)1.8 (11)33% (94)34% (34).47 (17)6% (69)2.3 (13)
NEV Defense1344% (11)43% (92) - - - - - - 11 (52).2 (50)1.5 (49)30% (103)39% (130).46 (119)7% (47)1.9 (42)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1455% (124)35% (10) - - - - - - 16 (10).11 (17)1.7 (107)37% (7)27% (21).16 (12)7% (30)2.1 (96)
NEV Offense1347% (87)42% (65)1928.2212.67.611.219 (65)8 (40).27 (57)1.6 (71)32% (69)32% (60).42 (29)6% (74)2.1 (59)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.59 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 15.59   Nevada: -11.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 17.5   Nevada: -15.2




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 42
Nevada 13


Total Points: 55

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.6

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202408/24Nevada24SMU29SMUSMU -28.0Nevada55.5Under
200912/24SMU45Nevada10SMU
200411/13SMU38Nevada20SMU
200309/27Nevada12SMU9Nevada
200211/02SMU6Nevada24Nevada
200111/03Nevada35SMU14Nevada
200010/27SMU21Nevada7SMU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada310 Overs
SMU401 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 21 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams2 - 50 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#13) SMU Info
Power Rating: 15.59 #13
Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.41 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Great in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Record on Road: 5 - 1 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

SMU Highlights
SMU offense is explosive (#37)
SMU offense is good in red zone (#80)
SMU Defense Sacks the QB a lot

SMU has a really good defense (#109)
SMU defense is really good in red zone (#28)
SMU has a good pass defense (#127)
SMU Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#28)
SMU Defensive Line is very good (#41)
SMU Secondary is very good (#8)
SMU defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

SMU Deficiencies
SMU has a bad TO Margin (#116)
SMU Fumbles a Lot (#113)
SMU Commits a Lot of Penalties (#127)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNEVSMU
OverallOver#67#11
OffenseOff#35#26
DefenseDef#98#10
Special TeamsST#110#70
PassingPass#20#10
RushingRush#50#53
Run BlockRBLK#40#37
Pass BlockPBLK#70#33
Route RunningWR Rt#30#16
TacklingTkl#115#39
Run DefenseR Def#107#9
Pass Rush DefPRush#52#15
Coverage DefCov#61#21

Rematch from Week 1
SMU 28.0 (55.5)
SMU won at Nevada this year (29-24)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Nevada last year (29-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SMU | NEV
Depth Chart: SMU | NEV
Rosters: SMU | NEV
(#109) Nevada Info
Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 5 (3 - 3 - 1 vs Spread)

Nevada Notes
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker

Nevada Highlights

Nevada Deficiencies
Nevada Commits a Lot of Penalties (#38)
Nevada does not Sack the QB (#31)
Nevada has a bad defense (#124)
Nevada has a bad red zone defense (#101)


  
SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Preston Stone305159%421518.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)2341330145.771
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
LJ Johnson Jr.7430354.135
Roderick Daniels4416033.613
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Roderick Daniels42601414.381
Keyshawn Smith33527516.045
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
Kelvontay Dixon21386118.487

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Wilson1026341
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmad Walker888143
Ahmaad Moses646003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)3013891
Isaiah Smith319761
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
Elijah Roberts32107101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonathan McGill522016
Brandon Crossley301016
Deuce Harmon (Tr)282006

Nevada's OC Matt Lubick
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brendon Lewis21131268%22901677.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)182572%239119.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brendon Lewis15777584.967
Savion Red (Tr)11968785.869
Pat Garwo III5524654.525
Sean Dollars4716503.526
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Smith62849713.762
Cortez Braham56724412.957
Marcus Bellon39522413.463
Caleb Ramseur8106113.344

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Drue Watts655103
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Stone Combs583100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Henry Ikahihifo438430
Kristopher Ross296332
Tongiaki Mateialona619202
Jonathan Maldonado173201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Coats Jr.4110010
Kitan Crawford (Tr)763016
Chad Brown475006