SMU at Nevada - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, August 24th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
SMU -28.0 (55.5) (-3500) Open: -25.5 | 57.5
SMU 29 - Nevada: 24

Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: SMU -28.5 (SP+ SMU -32.5)
Projected Score: SMU: 40 - NEV: 12 (52)
SMU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
SMU Travel: 1361 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SMU Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

SMU's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	SMU at Nevada	-28.0	55.5	W 29 - 24	U	N
Sat 8/31	SMU vs Houston Christian	-32.5
Fri 9/6	SMU vs BYU	-12.5	55.5	L 15 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	SMU vs TCU	+1.0	58.5	W 66 - 42	O	Y
Sat 9/28	SMU vs Florida State	-6.0	46.0	W 42 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/5	SMU at Louisville	+6.5	55.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	SMU at Stanford	-16.5	52.5	W 40 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/26	SMU at Duke	-11.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	SMU vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	55.5	W 48 - 25	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	SMU vs Boston College	-19.0	54.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/23	SMU at Virginia	-11.5	54.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/30	SMU vs California	-11.5	54.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/7	SMU vs Clemson	-2.5	56.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/21	SMU at Penn State	+9.0	52.5	L 10 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Nevada's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Nevada vs SMU	+28.0	55.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Sat 8/31	Nevada at Troy	+7.5	44.5	W 28 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Nevada vs Georgia Southern	-1.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Nevada at Minnesota	+17.5	44.5	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Nevada vs Eastern Washington	-13.5	54.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Nevada at San José State	+7.0	51.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Nevada vs Oregon State	+3.0	47.0	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Nevada vs Fresno State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Nevada at Hawai'i	+2.5	42.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	Nevada vs Colorado State	+2.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Nevada at Boise State	+23.5	60.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Nevada vs Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/30	Nevada at UNLV	+17.5	54.5	L 14 - 38	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU	#24 (.28)	44% (46)	32.2	47% (30)	3.21 (49)	177	42% (67)	278	4.51 (21)	#7 (.04)	36% (10)	20.5	37% (17)	35% (8)	3.59 (51)	40.8	0.9	1.2
NEV	#128 (.04)	35% (129)	17.6	39% (116)	2.67 (127)	125	32% (132)	175	2.54 (132)	#101 (.24)	46% (122)	27.5	47% (110)	47% (126)	3.83 (71)	58.5	1.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Offense	14	32.2	29.8	43.9%	4.51	0.9	24	455	177	278	4.5	50%	49%	47%	42%	12%	.28
NEV Defense	12	27.5	25.2	46.5%	3.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	47%	14%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SMU Defense	14	20.5	22.2	35.7%	3.59	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	37%	35%	19%	.04
NEV Offense	12	17.6	19.7	35.4%	2.54	1.7	17	300	125	175	3.4	55%	45%	39%	32%	22%	.04

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
SMU	14	30:21	23.5	43%	59%	4.6	40.8	0.9	1.2	6.6	3.1	5	30.4
Nevada	12	30:19	16.7	30%	43%	6.8	58.5	1.7	1.3	4	1.3	3	26.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Offense	14	50% (66)	47% (30)	39.7	176.6	4.5	29 (22)	.18 (52)	3.21 (49)	85% (2)	6% (4)	0.88 (122)
NEV Defense	12	51% (81)	47% (110)	-	-	-	-	.19 (97)	3.28 (107)	67% (30)	9% (99)	1.07 (104)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SMU Defense	14	47% (38)	37% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (19)	2.9 (35)	67% (30)	12% (23)	0.97 (50)
NEV Offense	12	55% (33)	39% (116)	36.9	124.8	3.4	14 (106)	.08 (107)	2.67 (127)	55% (132)	16% (133)	0.98 (78)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Offense	14	49% (71)	42% (67)	19.6	33.2	278.4	8.4	14.2	33 (11)	8 (30)	.45 (16)	2 (3)	31% (57)	33% (44)	.38 (53)	6% (58)	2.1 (46)
NEV Defense	12	48% (52)	47% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (99)	1.6 (83)	30% (102)	30% (68)	.28 (50)	5% (99)	2 (37)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SMU Defense	14	52% (97)	35% (8)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.09 (8)	1.7 (87)	36% (18)	22% (1)	.07 (2)	8% (19)	2.1 (70)
NEV Offense	12	45% (102)	32% (132)	15.9	28.8	175.2	6.1	11	6 (133)	12 (85)	.02 (132)	1.5 (88)	34% (107)	26% (109)	.06 (132)	6% (89)	1.7 (130)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.59 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 378.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 15.59 Nevada: -11.785

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 17.5 Nevada: -15.2

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -11.785 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 214.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 40
Nevada 12

Projected Total Points: 52

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/24	Nevada	24	SMU	29	SMU -28.0	Nevada	55.5	Under
2009	12/24	SMU	45	Nevada	10
2004	11/13	SMU	38	Nevada	20
2003	09/27	Nevada	12	SMU	9
2002	11/02	SMU	6	Nevada	24
2001	11/03	Nevada	35	SMU	14
2000	10/27	SMU	21	Nevada	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	3	1	0 Overs
SMU	4	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 5	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#13) SMU at (#109) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SMU	NEV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#13	#109
SP+SP+	#12	#117
Perf GradeGrade	#14	#94
OffenseOff	#30	#39
DefenseDef	#13	#119
Spec TeamsST	#84	#133
TalentTal	#46	#111
Blue ChipsBC%	#47	#65

SMU Injury Report

Nevada Notes(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report

SMU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#119
SuccessSuc	#46	#122
ExplosiveExp	#15	#100
PPAPPA	#24	#101
PowerPwr	#28	#108
SP+SP+	#5	#113
Pts POPPO	#21	#71
HavocHav	#8	#112

SMU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#74	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#30	#110
Run ExplRExp	#122	#104
PPAExp	#52	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#47	-
OL YdsOLY	#49	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#38	#90
TackleTak	-	#131

SMU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#3	#83
PPAExp	#16	#99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#33	#58
F7 HavocF7	#4	#99
DB HavocDB	#58	#99

Nevada on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	SMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#13
SuccessSuc	#129	#10
ExplosiveExp	#110	#86
PPAPPA	#128	#7
PowerPwr	#46	#5
SP+SP+	#106	#30
Pts POPPO	#132	#51
HavocHav	#131	#14

Nevada Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#70	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#17
Run ExplRExp	#78	#50
PPAExp	#107	#19
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#127	#35
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#27
TackleTak	-	#43

Nevada Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#8
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#87
PPAExp	#132	#8
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#80	#15
F7 HavocF7	#133	#23
DB HavocDB	#89	#19

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
SMU 28.0 (55.5)
SMU won at Nevada this year (29-24)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Nevada in 2024 (29-24)

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	248	381	65%	3189	23	11	8.4
Preston Stone	30	51	59%	421	5	1	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)	234	1330	14	5.7	71
Kevin Jennings	101	354	5	3.5	59
LJ Johnson Jr.	74	303	5	4.1	35
Roderick Daniels	44	160	3	3.6	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roderick Daniels	42	601	4	14.3	81
Keyshawn Smith	33	527	5	16.0	45
Jordan Hudson	39	422	5	10.8	42
Kelvontay Dixon	21	386	1	18.4	87

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kobe Wilson	102	6	3	4	1
Isaiah Nwokobia	95	3	1	2	3
Ahmad Walker	88	8	1	4	3
Ahmaad Moses	64	6	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)	30	13	8	9	1
Isaiah Smith	31	9	7	6	1
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)	40	8	7	5	0
Elijah Roberts	32	10	7	10	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonathan McGill	52	2	1	6
Brandon Crossley	30	1	1	6
Deuce Harmon (Tr)	28	2	0	6

NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis	211	312	68%	2290	16	7	7.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brendon Lewis	157	775	8	4.9	67
Savion Red (Tr)	119	687	8	5.8	69
Pat Garwo III	55	246	5	4.5	25
Sean Dollars	47	165	0	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Smith	62	849	7	13.7	62
Cortez Braham	56	724	4	12.9	57
Marcus Bellon	39	522	4	13.4	63
Caleb Ramseur	8	106	1	13.3	44

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	0	1	6
Drue Watts	65	5	1	0	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Stone Combs	58	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Henry Ikahihifo	43	8	4	3	0
Kristopher Ross	29	6	3	3	2
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Jonathan Maldonado	17	3	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Coats Jr.	41	1	0	10
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	1	6
Chad Brown	47	5	0	6