Oregon State at California - 2024 Matchup Preview
Oregon State logo Oregon State Beavers at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
California -13.0 (51.0) (-400)  Open: -10.5 | 49.0
California 44 - Oregon State: 7

 
Beavers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (17 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
CAL 2nd straight Home Game
CAL is playing their 4th straight game
ORST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: California -17.5  (SP+ CAL -11)

Projected Score: ORST: 18 - CAL: 36 (54)
CAL Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
ORST Travel: 465 miles
Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Oregon State vs Idaho State-29.557.5W 38 - 15UN
Sat 9/7 Oregon State at San Diego State-5.554.5W 21 - 0UY
Sat 9/14 Oregon State vs Oregon+16.050.0L 14 - 49ON
Sat 9/21 Oregon State vs Purdue-1.551.0W 38 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Oregon State vs Colorado State-10.047.0W 39 - 31ON
Sat 10/12 Oregon State at Nevada-3.047.0L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/19 Oregon State vs UNLV+6.561.0L 25 - 33UN
Sat 10/26 Oregon State at California+13.051.0L 7 - 44UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Oregon State vs San José State-3.058.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 11/16 Oregon State at Air Force-3.044.5L 0 - 28UN
Sat 11/23 Oregon State vs Washington State+11.057.0W 41 - 38OY
Fri 11/29 Oregon State at Boise State+17.558.5L 18 - 34UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 California vs UC Davis-20.556.5W 31 - 13UN
Sat 9/7 California at Auburn+11.552.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/14 California vs San Diego State-18.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 9/21 California at Florida State+3.044.0L 9 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 California vs Miami+10.054.0L 38 - 39OY
Sat 10/12 California at Pittsburgh+3.557.5L 15 - 17UY
Sat 10/19 California vs NC State-9.546.0L 23 - 24ON
Sat 10/26 California vs Oregon State-13.051.0W 44 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8 California at Wake Forest-7.554.5W 46 - 36OY
Sat 11/16 California vs Syracuse-10.558.0L 25 - 33UN
Sat 11/23 California vs Stanford-15.053.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/30 California at SMU+11.554.5L 6 - 38UN
Wed 12/18 California vs UNLV+3.045.0L 13 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#87 (.16)44% (59)24.347% (25)3.34 (20)18939% (100)2013.87 (75)#117 (.27)48% (125)29.950% (126)45% (112)4.35 (117)45.71.31
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)25.140% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)22.341% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#87 (.16)44% (59)47% (25)3.34 (20)18939% (100)2013.87 (75)#117 (.27)48% (125)50% (126)45% (112)4.35 (117)45.71.31
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense1224.316.643.6%3.871.3223911892014.755%45%47%39%15%.16
CAL Defense1322.32140.4%3.231.7 - - - - - 47%53%41%40%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense1229.929.648%4.351 - - - - - 56%44%50%45%13%.27
CAL Offense1325.130.941.5%3.070.8213811222593.641%58%40%43%18%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State1233:0922.344%52%5.145.71.313.80.6124.9
California1330:3620.737%44%7.459.70.81.75.42.5229.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense1255% (33)47% (25)40.3189.24.729 (18).22 (25)3.34 (20)76% (46)9% (50)0.97 (65)
CAL Defense1347% (28)41% (53) - - - - .08 (44)2.99 (65)86% (129)10% (72)0.91 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense1256% (125)50% (126) - - - - .23 (120)3.39 (123)81% (114)8% (122)0.96 (55)
CAL Offense1341% (121)40% (104)33.7122.23.617 (84).07 (99)2.68 (120)69% (98)13% (126)1.1 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense1245% (101)39% (100)1830201.46.711.27 (130)11 (72).09 (125)1.4 (123)28% (20)31% (78).16 (123)6% (84)1.8 (124)
CAL Defense1353% (103)40% (67) - - - - - - 17 (5).21 (52)1.7 (92)33% (44)30% (59).39 (102)8% (12)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense1244% (13)45% (112) - - - - - - 5 (117).31 (104)1.5 (41)27% (126)33% (102).46 (121)6% (75)2.1 (70)
CAL Offense1358% (14)43% (57)23.235.7258.67.311.116 (87)7 (26).25 (72)1.4 (126)36% (128)30% (85).36 (58)5% (23)2.2 (23)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -14.99  #113
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 18.65  #79
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 20.78  #129
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #74
Oregon State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Oregon State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7  #97
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #73
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7  #107

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -14.99   California: 6.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -6.7   California: 4.0




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 6.885  #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12  #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35  #39
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0  #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9  #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

Oregon State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
California 36
Oregon State 18


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon State 32
California 31

Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
California 29
Oregon State 21

Total Points: 50
California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Oregon State15California34Oregon State -3California51.5Under
202410/26California44Oregon State7California -13.0California51.0Push
202310/07California40Oregon State52Oregon State -7.5Oregon State51.0Over
202211/12Oregon State38California10Oregon State -11.5Oregon State47.0Over
202110/30California39Oregon State25Oregon State -2.5California56.5Over
202011/21Oregon State31California27California -1.0Oregon State46.5Over
201910/19California17Oregon State21California -10Oregon State51.0Under
201810/20Oregon State7California49California -8.5California58.0Under
201711/04California37Oregon State23California -7California54.0Over
201610/08Oregon State47California44California -10Oregon State70.0Over
201511/14California54Oregon State24California -17.5California64.0Over
201411/01Oregon State31California45Oregon State -4.5California0
201310/19California17Oregon State49Oregon State -7.5Oregon State0
201211/17Oregon State62California14
201111/12California23Oregon State6
201010/30Oregon State35California7
200911/07California14Oregon State31
200811/15Oregon State34California21
200710/13California28Oregon State31
200609/30Oregon State13California41
200510/15California20Oregon State23
200410/02Oregon State7California49
200310/04California21Oregon State35
200210/26Oregon State24California13
200110/27Oregon State19California10
200011/03California32Oregon State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California1077 Overs
Oregon State1663 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 137 - 64 - 33 - 3
Road Teams13 - 136 - 73 - 33 - 4

(#113) ORST at (#44) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatORSTCAL
Power RatePwr #113 #44
SP+SP+ #97 #55
Perf GradeGrade #98 #72
OffenseOff #55 #93
DefenseDef #131 #32
Spec TeamsST #28 #13
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #74 #38
Oregon State Notes
(12/19) Signed QB Maalik Murphy (Duke)
(11/29) Def torched by Boise, Off meh, 3-13 on 3rd
(11/29) 1-6 finish in '24 to miss bowl. 25 goal is ?
(11/18) QB Johnson awful, Rgame worse, shutout by AFA?
(11/18) Complete identity crisis. No idea what they want
(10/31) QB McCoy may have lost job to Gulbranson
(10/27) Pass Def abused by Cal. 3 straight L's, going down
(10/12) Run Def abused by Nevada 353 yds, 8.4ypc in L
(10/11) RB Griffin likely out vs Nevada
(10/10) Rgame good vs CSU, 251yds (5.3 ypc), McCoy meh
(9/23) Killed Purdue, rushed for 341 (6 ypc), pass D good
(9/14) Outclassed by OU. Gave up 500 yds McCoy meh
Oregon State Injury Report
California Notes
(12/24) Signed QB D Brown (Ohio St)
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games
(9/8) Huge W @ Aub. Def held to 286yds & 5 TOs
California Injury Report
Oregon State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat
ORST OffCAL Def
Perf GradePerf #55 #32
SuccessSuc #59 #52
ExplosiveExp #124 #88
PPAPPA #87 #48
PowerPwr #79 #39
SP+SP+ #73 #40
Pts POPPO #75 #20
HavocHav #56 #42
Oregon State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat
ORST OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #50 #43
Run SuccessRSuc #25 #53
Run ExplRExp #65 #37
PPAExp #25 #44
Run BlockR Blk #40 -
OL YdsOLY #20 #65
Stuff RateStuff #11 #71
TackleTak -  #28
Oregon State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat
ORST OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #78 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #100 #67
Pass ExplPExl #123 #92
PPAExp #125 #52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #28 #45
F7 HavocF7 #50 #72
DB HavocDB #84 #12
California on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatCAL OffORST Def
Perf GradePerf #93 #131
SuccessSuc #88 #125
ExplosiveExp #52 #31
PPAPPA #79 #117
PowerPwr #85 #129
SP+SP+ #65 #107
Pts POPPO #125 #117
HavocHav #102 #115
California Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
CAL OffORST Def
Run GameRun #107 #130
Run SuccessRSuc #104 #126
Run ExplRExp #22 #55
PPAExp #99 #120
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #123
Stuff RateStuff #114 #108
TackleTak -  #84
California Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatCAL OffORST Def
Pass GamePass #57 #124
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #112
Pass ExplPExl #126 #41
PPAExp #72 #104
Pass Block/RushP Blk #90 #101
F7 HavocF7 #126 #122
DB HavocDB #23 #75
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 66°
Rematch from Week 9
California -13.0 (51.0)
California won vs Oregon State this year (44-7)

Previous Matchups
California beat Oregon State last year (44-7)
Oregon State beat California in 2023 (52-40)
Oregon State beat California in 2022 (38-10)

  
ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gevani McCoy (Tr)12320261%1300366.4
Ben Gulbranson7812861%943447.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Hankerson (Tr)2321082154.783
Jamious Griffin7345046.233
Gevani McCoy (Tr)5932855.671
Salahadin Allah5525814.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trent Walker81901211.143
Jermaine Terry II23375116.343
Darrius Clemons (Tr)25292211.744
Jeremiah Noga23266011.630

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Keith Heyward (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Skyler Thomas810009
Isaiah Chisom755020
Nikko Taylor468373
Melvin Jordan IV453001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nikko Taylor468373
Zakaih Saez243120
Dexter Foster432120
Semisi Saluni345132
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Skyler Thomas810009
Andre Jordan272004
Sailasa Vadrawale301004

CAL's OC Mike Bloesch (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza26538669%30041667.8
CJ Harris (Tr)193161%184015.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaivian Thomas10062676.375
Jadyn Ott11638543.353
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)2612414.860
Fernando Mendoza8710521.250
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jack Endries56623211.157
Nyziah Hunter40578514.560
Trond Grizzell27401114.951
Jonathan Brady (Tr)34366310.830

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
Craig Woodson703017
Cade Uluave683152
Nohl Williams511018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Carlton4711981
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
David Reese228512
Ryan McCulloch185381
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nohl Williams511018
Craig Woodson703017
Lu-Magia Hearns III120005