San Diego State at California - 2024 Matchup Preview

San Diego State Aztecs at California Golden Bears

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
California -18.5 (48.5) (-900) Open: -17.5 | 50.5
California 31 - San Diego State: 10

Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (20 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: California -24.5 (SP+ CAL -19)
Projected Score: SDSU: 11 - CAL: 36 (47)
CAL Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
SDSU Travel: 455 miles

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SDSU Players
CAL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	San Diego State vs East Texas A&M	-16
Sat 9/7	San Diego State vs Oregon State	+5.5	54.5	L 0 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	San Diego State at California	+18.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	San Diego State at Central Michigan	+2.5	47.5	L 21 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/5	San Diego State vs Hawai'i	-1.5	47.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/12	San Diego State at Wyoming	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	San Diego State vs Washington State	+17.0	56.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Fri 11/1	San Diego State at Boise State	+24.5	55.5	L 24 - 56	O	N
Fri 11/8	San Diego State vs New Mexico	-1.5	65.5	L 16 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	San Diego State at UNLV	+22.0	55.5	L 20 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/23	San Diego State at Utah State	+5.0	60.0	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	San Diego State vs Air Force	+6.5	43.5	L 20 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

California's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	California vs UC Davis	-20.5	56.5	W 31 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/7	California at Auburn	+11.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	California vs San Diego State	-18.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/21	California at Florida State	+3.0	44.0	L 9 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	California vs Miami	+10.0	54.0	L 38 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	California at Pittsburgh	+3.5	57.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/19	California vs NC State	-9.5	46.0	L 23 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/26	California vs Oregon State	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	California at Wake Forest	-7.5	54.5	W 46 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/16	California vs Syracuse	-10.5	58.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/23	California vs Stanford	-15.0	53.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/30	California at SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/18	California vs UNLV	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)	21.3	37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)	29.6	49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)	25.1	40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)	22.3	41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)		37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)		49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)		40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)		41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Offense	12	21.3	20.3	37.4%	3.44	0.8	19	335	129	206	3.7	47%	52%	37%	38%	18%	.12
CAL Defense	13	22.3	21	40.4%	3.23	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	41%	40%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Defense	12	29.6	35.8	46.1%	4.28	1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	49%	43%	12%	.23
CAL Offense	13	25.1	30.9	41.5%	3.07	0.8	21	381	122	259	3.6	41%	58%	40%	43%	18%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San Diego State	12	27:08	18.5	36%	53%	9.1	81.8	0.8	1	5.4	2.6	2	31
California	13	30:36	20.7	37%	44%	7.4	59.7	0.8	1.7	5.4	2.5	2	29.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense	12	47% (87)	37% (124)	35.3	128.9	3.7	13 (105)	.1 (84)	3 (78)	69% (97)	12% (114)	1.06 (37)
CAL Defense	13	47% (28)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.08 (44)	2.99 (65)	86% (129)	10% (72)	0.91 (37)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense	12	55% (117)	49% (117)	-	-	-	-	.21 (113)	3.49 (130)	80% (109)	9% (98)	0.94 (47)
CAL Offense	13	41% (121)	40% (104)	33.7	122.2	3.6	17 (84)	.07 (99)	2.68 (120)	69% (98)	13% (126)	1.1 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense	12	52% (45)	38% (109)	19.5	31.3	205.7	6.6	10.6	15 (98)	8 (40)	.15 (107)	1.5 (99)	36% (125)	26% (114)	.29 (87)	6% (61)	2 (77)
CAL Defense	13	53% (103)	40% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.21 (52)	1.7 (92)	33% (44)	30% (59)	.39 (102)	8% (12)	2.2 (111)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense	12	44% (17)	43% (98)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.28 (96)	1.6 (75)	29% (112)	38% (126)	.52 (126)	3% (133)	2.1 (79)
CAL Offense	13	58% (14)	43% (57)	23.2	35.7	258.6	7.3	11.1	16 (87)	7 (26)	.25 (72)	1.4 (126)	36% (128)	30% (85)	.36 (58)	5% (23)	2.2 (23)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -20.06 #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -20.06 California: 6.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -15.4 California: 4.0

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 6.885 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
California 36
San Diego State 11

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
California 25
San Diego State 16

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
California 30
San Diego State 21

Total Points: 51

California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	San Diego State	34	California	0	California -14	San Diego State	47.5	Under
2024	09/14	California	31	San Diego State	10	California -18.5	California	48.5	Under
2016	09/10	San Diego State	45	California	40	San Diego State -7	California	59.5	Over
2015	09/12	California	35	San Diego State	7	California -9	California	59.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
California	2	3	1 Overs
San Diego State	2	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	3 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	1 - 3	0 - 1	1 - 2

(#122) SDSU at (#44) CAL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SDSU	CAL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#122	#44
SP+SP+	#119	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#108	#72
OffenseOff	#91	#93
DefenseDef	#116	#32
Spec TeamsST	#24	#13
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#38

San Diego State Notes(11/18) Rgame only 2 guys, one the QB O'Neil? L to Rebs
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Injury Report

California Notes(12/24) Signed QB D Brown (Ohio St)
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games
(9/8) Huge W @ Aub. Def held to 286yds & 5 TOs
California Injury Report

San Diego State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	CAL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#32
SuccessSuc	#120	#52
ExplosiveExp	#51	#88
PPAPPA	#108	#48
PowerPwr	#117	#39
SP+SP+	#122	#40
Pts POPPO	#107	#20
HavocHav	#99	#42

San Diego State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#118	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#53
Run ExplRExp	#37	#37
PPAExp	#84	#44
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#65
Stuff RateStuff	#35	#71
TackleTak	-	#28

San Diego State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	#109	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#99	#92
PPAExp	#107	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#45
F7 HavocF7	#114	#72
DB HavocDB	#61	#12

California on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	SDSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#116
SuccessSuc	#88	#113
ExplosiveExp	#52	#44
PPAPPA	#79	#103
PowerPwr	#85	#109
SP+SP+	#65	#104
Pts POPPO	#125	#111
HavocHav	#102	#131

California Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#107	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	#104	#117
Run ExplRExp	#22	#47
PPAExp	#99	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#120	#130
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#132
TackleTak	-	#125

California Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#98
Pass ExplPExl	#126	#75
PPAExp	#72	#96
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#90	#87
F7 HavocF7	#126	#98
DB HavocDB	#23	#133

Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 59° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 3
California -18.5 (48.5)
California won vs San Diego State this year (31-10)

Previous Matchups
California beat San Diego State last year (31-10)

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Danny O'Neil	209	330	63%	2181	12	6	6.6
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson	20	39	51%	222	2	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	292	1274	12	4.4	47
Danny O'Neil	74	89	1	1.2	34
Cam Davis	14	76	0	5.4	38
Jaylon Armstead	13	42	0	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Louis Brown	38	620	3	16.3	44
Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr)	50	459	1	9.2	46
Jordan Napier	43	440	4	10.2	53
Nate Bennett (Tr)	22	314	1	14.3	48

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Eric Schmidt (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tano Letuli (Tr)	67	4	2	2	0
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Kyle Moretti (Tr)	58	3	1	0	0
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1
Tupu Alualu	21	5	4	0	0
Marlem Louis (Tr)	10	4	4	0	0
Ryan Henderson	12	3	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshawn McCuin	26	2	1	1	5
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Eric Butler	44	3	0	0	3

CAL's OC Mike Bloesch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	265	386	69%	3004	16	6	7.8
CJ Harris (Tr)	19	31	61%	184	0	1	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaivian Thomas	100	626	7	6.3	75
Jadyn Ott	116	385	4	3.3	53
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Fernando Mendoza	87	105	2	1.2	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Endries	56	623	2	11.1	57
Nyziah Hunter	40	578	5	14.5	60
Trond Grizzell	27	401	1	14.9	51
Jonathan Brady (Tr)	34	366	3	10.8	30

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
Craig Woodson	70	3	0	1	7
Cade Uluave	68	3	1	5	2
Nohl Williams	51	1	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Carlton	47	11	9	8	1
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
David Reese	22	8	5	1	2
Ryan McCulloch	18	5	3	8	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Nohl Williams	51	1	1	8
Craig Woodson	70	3	1	7
Lu-Magia Hearns III	12	0	0	5