Florida State at SMU - 2024 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
SMU -6 (46.0) (-205)  Open: -4.5
SMU 42 - Florida State: 16  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SMU 4th straight Home Game
Our Line: SMU -23   (SP+ SMU -21)

Projected Score: FSU: 14 - SMU: 37 (51)
SMU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
FSU Travel: 752 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (44 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Florida State vs Georgia Tech-10.054.5L 21 - 24UN
Mon 9/2 Florida State vs Boston College-16.550.0L 13 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Florida State vs Memphis-7.052.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 9/21 Florida State vs California-3.044.0W 14 - 9UY
Sat 9/28 Florida State at SMU+6.046.0L 16 - 42ON
Sat 10/5 Florida State vs Clemson+16.547.0L 13 - 29UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Florida State at Duke+2.543.0L 16 - 23UN
Sat 10/26 Florida State at Miami+22.555.0L 14 - 36UY
Sat 11/2 Florida State vs North Carolina+2.550.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 11/9 Florida State at Notre Dame+25.544.5L 3 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Florida State vs Charleston Southern-33.044.5W 41 - 7OY
Sat 11/30 Florida State vs Florida+17.545.5L 11 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 SMU at Nevada-28.055.5W 29 - 24UN
Sat 8/31 SMU vs Houston Christian-32.5
Fri 9/6 SMU vs BYU-12.555.5L 15 - 18UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 SMU vs TCU+1.058.5W 66 - 42OY
Sat 9/28 SMU vs Florida State-6.046.0W 42 - 16OY
Sat 10/5 SMU at Louisville+6.555.0W 34 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 SMU at Stanford-16.552.5W 40 - 10UY
Sat 10/26 SMU at Duke-11.549.5W 28 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.055.5W 48 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 SMU vs Boston College-19.054.5W 38 - 28ON
Sat 11/23 SMU at Virginia-11.554.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 11/30 SMU vs California-11.554.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 12/7 SMU vs Clemson-2.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 12/21 SMU at Penn State+9.052.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#60 (.21)41% (79)15.439% (113)2.64 (128)15043% (54)2514.45 (25)#13 (.09)36% (9)2840% (38)32% (1)3.5 (47)56.60.61.2
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)36.547% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)22.137% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense1415.412.341.3%4.450.6204011502514.547%53%39%43%15%.21
SMU Defense1422.120.335.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense142838.335.5%3.51.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%32%21%.09
SMU Offense1436.543.743.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1429:2319.636%48%6.156.60.61.26.73.2229.5
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1447% (93)39% (113)33.1150.14.532 (10).07 (111)2.64 (128)63% (123)9% (52)1.06 (35)
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1449% (49)40% (38) - - - - .12 (51)2.75 (19)77% (96)12% (20)1.07 (102)
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1453% (39)43% (54)18.630.9250.68.113.525 (37)4 (2).34 (46)1.6 (48)32% (78)31% (66).36 (61)6% (67)2.2 (32)
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1451% (90)32% (1) - - - - - - 10 (67).06 (4)1.6 (65)36% (16)27% (28).22 (22)9% (2)1.9 (24)
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 950.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -4.89   SMU: 19.045

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -3.2   SMU: 17.5




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 19.045 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.3
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.3

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 37
Florida State 14


Projected Total Points: 51
SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28SMU42Florida State16SMUSMU -6SMU46.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU111 Overs
Florida State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#83) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58
Talent Rating: 950.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.88 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.62 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Florida State Notes
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
Florida State     Ratings Matchup     SMU
Power #83
#13
Off #120
#28
Def #87
#5
Talent #9
#47
SP+ #83
#12
SP+ Off #114
#5
SP+ Def #58
#30

Rematch from Week 5
SMU -6.0 (46.0)
SMU won vs Florida State this year (42-16)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Florida State last year (42-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 82° - Wind: 6 mph


Team Information
Injuries: FSU | SMU
Depth Chart: FSU | SMU
Rosters: FSU | SMU
(#13) SMU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 19.045 #13
Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30
Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #47
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.41 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Great in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position



  
Florida State's OC Alex Atkins
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)8415654%1065466.8
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kam Davis5217303.316
Luke Kromenhoek6311301.842
Brock Glenn359702.817
Samuel Singleton219304.427
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Benson (Tr)25311112.467
Hykeem Williams16187111.733
Landen Thomas14173112.435
Jalen Brown (Tr)87509.421

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Adam Fuller
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
K.J. Kirkland451002
Blake Nichelson454100
Cam Riley (Tr)374101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)256430
Patrick Payton3210440
Darrell Jackson284441
Edwin Joseph134201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Omar Graham Jr.374113
Quindarrius Jones111003
Shyheim Brown621002

SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Preston Stone305159%421518.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)2341330145.771
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
LJ Johnson Jr.7430354.135
Derrick McFall2610624.117
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
Matthew Hibner (Tr)24368415.380
R.J. Maryland24359415.049
Brashard Smith (Tr)3932748.433

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmaad Moses646003
Alex Kilgore553103
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)3013891
Isaiah Smith319761
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
Cam Robertson296330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deuce Harmon (Tr)282006
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmaad Moses646003