California at UNLV - 2024 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, December 18th 2024 (9:00 PM EST)
UNLV -3 (45.0) (-148) Open: 0.0
UNLV 24 - California: 13 (Art of Sport LA Bowl)

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: UNLV -2.5 (SP+ UNLV -5)
Projected Score: CAL: 25 - UNLV: 27 (52)
UNLV Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
CAL Travel: 347 miles

Rebels (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (9 - 5)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (37 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
CAL Players
UNLV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

California's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	California vs UC Davis	-20.5	56.5	W 31 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/7	California at Auburn	+11.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	California vs San Diego State	-18.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/21	California at Florida State	+3.0	44.0	L 9 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	California vs Miami	+10.0	54.0	L 38 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	California at Pittsburgh	+3.5	57.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/19	California vs NC State	-9.5	46.0	L 23 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/26	California vs Oregon State	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	California at Wake Forest	-7.5	54.5	W 46 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/16	California vs Syracuse	-10.5	58.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/23	California vs Stanford	-15.0	53.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/30	California at SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/18	California vs UNLV	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule

UNLV's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UNLV at Houston	+3.0	56.0	W 27 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/7	UNLV vs Utah Tech	-41.5	55.5	W 72 - 14	O	Y
Fri 9/13	UNLV vs Kansas	+7.0	57.0	W 23 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UNLV vs Fresno State	-2.5	51.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Fri 10/4	UNLV vs Syracuse	-5.5	55.5	L 41 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/11	UNLV at Utah State	-19.0	67.5	W 50 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/19	UNLV at Oregon State	-6.5	61.0	W 33 - 25	U	Y
Fri 10/25	UNLV vs Boise State	+4.0	64.0	L 24 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	UNLV at Hawai'i	-12.0	51.5	W 29 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/16	UNLV vs San Diego State	-22.0	55.5	W 41 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/22	UNLV at San José State	-7.5	59.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/30	UNLV vs Nevada	-17.5	54.5	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Fri 12/6	UNLV at Boise State	+3.5	57.5	L 7 - 21	U	N
Wed 12/18	UNLV vs California	-3.0	45.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#61 (.21)	41% (88)	25.3	44% (59)	3.39 (13)	173	38% (103)	218	4.12 (46)	#87 (.21)	45% (112)	27.2	47% (103)	44% (108)	4.4 (118)	44.8	2.2	2.2
UNLV	#38 (.27)	43% (58)	34.1	40% (101)	3.17 (58)	174	46% (28)	239	4.19 (40)	#115 (.26)	42% (65)	28	41% (52)	43% (93)	4.08 (94)	61.8	1.4	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNLV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Offense	13	25.3	23.7	40.5%	4.12	2.2	21	391	173	218	4.5	50%	49%	44%	38%	18%	.21
UNLV Defense	14	28	29.7	41.7%	4.08	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	43%	13%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Defense	13	27.2	29.6	45%	4.4	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	47%	44%	16%	.21
UNLV Offense	14	34.1	36.8	42.5%	4.19	1.4	20	413	174	239	4.5	54%	45%	40%	46%	13%	.27

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
California	13	28:40	21.4	39%	52%	5.5	44.8	2.2	2.2	4.5	1.9	1	31.2
UNLV	14	28:06	20.3	49%	45%	6.9	61.8	1.4	1.9	4	1.4	1	33.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Offense	13	50% (68)	44% (59)	38.2	173.1	4.5	26 (30)	.24 (23)	3.39 (13)	75% (60)	11% (86)	1.11 (20)
UNLV Defense	14	53% (109)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.11 (50)	3.1 (69)	78% (101)	8% (113)	0.95 (42)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Defense	13	47% (32)	47% (103)	-	-	-	-	.14 (67)	3.1 (67)	73% (66)	9% (98)	0.98 (55)
UNLV Offense	14	54% (36)	40% (101)	38.4	173.5	4.5	39 (2)	.2 (40)	3.17 (58)	76% (43)	8% (29)	1.18 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Offense	13	49% (64)	38% (103)	19.8	33.4	218.2	6.5	11	22 (61)	16 (121)	.21 (92)	1.6 (49)	33% (84)	27% (96)	.33 (70)	7% (97)	2 (67)
UNLV Defense	14	46% (24)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.48 (133)	1.9 (133)	33% (52)	29% (55)	.32 (72)	4% (128)	2.1 (69)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Defense	13	52% (103)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.3 (88)	1.5 (34)	27% (129)	35% (121)	.36 (91)	7% (40)	1.8 (10)
UNLV Offense	14	45% (96)	46% (28)	17.9	28.9	239.2	8.3	13.3	17 (85)	12 (85)	.37 (30)	1.6 (56)	32% (81)	33% (43)	.4 (44)	5% (42)	2.1 (59)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 4.77 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 386.00 #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 4.77 UNLV: 6.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: 4.0 UNLV: 9.3

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 6.72 #46
UNLV's Offense Rating: 18.48 #81
UNLV's Defense Rating: 5.05 #27
2024 Talent Rating: 250.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
UNLV's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
UNLV's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #36
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #31
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #55

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 27
California 25

Projected Total Points: 52

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

UNLV's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/18	UNLV	24	California	13	UNLV -3	UNLV	45.0	Under
2022	09/10	California	20	UNLV	14	California -12	UNLV	49.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UNLV	1	2	0 Overs
California	1	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

California Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	La Bowl	California vs UNLV	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 24
2023	Independence Bowl	California vs Texas Tech	+3.5	54.5	L 14 - 34
2019	Redbox Bowl	California vs Illinois	-6.0	47.5	W 35 - 20
2018	It Bowl	California vs TCU	-1.5	38.5	L 7 - 10

UNLV Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	La Bowl	UNLV vs California	-3.0	45.0	W 24 - 13
2023	Rate Bowl	UNLV vs Kansas	+8.0	64.5	L 36 - 49

(#44) CAL at (#46) UNLV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CAL	UNLV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#44	#46
SP+SP+	#55	#36
Perf GradeGrade	#72	#16
OffenseOff	#93	#20
DefenseDef	#32	#28
Spec TeamsST	#13	#47
TalentTal	#41	#96
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#102

California Notes(12/24) Signed QB D Brown (Ohio St)
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games
(9/8) Huge W @ Aub. Def held to 286yds & 5 TOs
California Injury Report

UNLV Notes(12/30) Hired DC Z Arnett (MSU HC)
(12/12) Hired HC Dan Mullen? Feels like a lazy hire
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat Nevada = MWC title gm vs Boise
(11/18) Beat Haw,SDSU. Rgame/QB great, Def good
(10/26) Even w/ Boise, Run D good, TO and late D cost
(10/23) WR R White gets 44% of targets, #1 in CFB
(9/28) Killed Fresno, Rgame great, QB Williams eff
(9/25) QB Sluka no longer with team (redshirt/portal)
(9/13) 2-0 vs B12, great W at Kan. Outgained but TOs won
(9/1) Great W @ Houston, bullied lines, 195 (4.1) vs 38 (1.5)
(7/31) New QBs Sluka/Williams (FCS/mobiles) will be great
(7/31) Team is really good, sched is really rough
UNLV Injury Report

California on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	UNLV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#28
SuccessSuc	#88	#65
ExplosiveExp	#34	#119
PPAPPA	#61	#115
PowerPwr	#85	#27
SP+SP+	#65	#55
Pts POPPO	#46	#94
HavocHav	#93	#125

California Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#107	#46
Run SuccessRSuc	#59	#52
Run ExplRExp	#20	#42
PPAExp	#23	#50
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#13	#69
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#115
TackleTak	-	#79

California Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#133
PPAExp	#92	#133
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#90	#56
F7 HavocF7	#86	#113
DB HavocDB	#97	#128

UNLV on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	CAL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#20	#32
SuccessSuc	#58	#112
ExplosiveExp	#10	#47
PPAPPA	#38	#87
PowerPwr	#81	#39
SP+SP+	#31	#40
Pts POPPO	#40	#118
HavocHav	#25	#75

UNLV Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#19	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#101	#103
Run ExplRExp	#3	#55
PPAExp	#40	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#58	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#26	#93
TackleTak	-	#28

UNLV Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	#28	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#34
PPAExp	#30	#88
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#7	#45
F7 HavocF7	#29	#98
DB HavocDB	#42	#40

Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in SoFi Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
UNLV -3.0 (45.0)
UNLV won vs California this year (24-13)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat California in 2024 (24-13)

CAL's OC Mike Bloesch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	265	386	69%	3004	16	6	7.8
CJ Harris (Tr)	19	31	61%	184	0	1	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaivian Thomas	100	626	7	6.3	75
Jadyn Ott	116	385	4	3.3	53
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Fernando Mendoza	87	105	2	1.2	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Endries	56	623	2	11.1	57
Nyziah Hunter	40	578	5	14.5	60
Trond Grizzell	27	401	1	14.9	51
Jonathan Brady (Tr)	34	366	3	10.8	30

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
Craig Woodson	70	3	0	1	7
Cade Uluave	68	3	1	5	2
Nohl Williams	51	1	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Carlton	47	11	9	8	1
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
David Reese	22	8	5	1	2
Ryan McCulloch	18	5	3	8	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Nohl Williams	51	1	1	8
Craig Woodson	70	3	1	7
Lu-Magia Hearns III	12	0	0	5

UNLV's OC Brennan Marion (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	150	252	60%	1941	19	5	7.7
Matthew Sluka (Tr)	21	48	44%	318	6	1	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	161	915	7	5.7	54
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	161	851	9	5.3	71
Kylin James (Tr)	89	653	5	7.3	86
Greg Burrell	66	370	3	5.6	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky White	79	1041	11	13.2	55
Jacob De Jesus	36	512	3	14.2	43
Jaden Bradley (Tr)	9	173	1	19.2	42
Kaleo Ballungay	17	152	6	8.9	29

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Michael Scherer (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Jett Elad	84	5	1	2	6
Jalen Catalon (Tr)	77	5	2	1	3
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fisher Camac	46	15	8	1	5
Antonio Doyle Jr. (Tr)	56	8	7	4	3
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10
Cameron Oliver	33	1	1	0	10