California at Florida State - 2024 Matchup Preview

California Golden Bears at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Florida State -3 (44.0) (-142) Open: 0.0
Florida State 14 - California: 9 (ACC)

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FSU 3rd straight Home Game
CAL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: California -6 (SP+ CAL -7)
Projected Score: CAL: 28 - FSU: 22 (50)
FSU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
CAL Travel: 2214 miles, 3 hrs behind

Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CAL Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

California's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	California vs UC Davis	-20.5	56.5	W 31 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/7	California at Auburn	+11.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	California vs San Diego State	-18.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/21	California at Florida State	+3.0	44.0	L 9 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	California vs Miami	+10.0	54.0	L 38 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	California at Pittsburgh	+3.5	57.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/19	California vs NC State	-9.5	46.0	L 23 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/26	California vs Oregon State	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	California at Wake Forest	-7.5	54.5	W 46 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/16	California vs Syracuse	-10.5	58.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/23	California vs Stanford	-15.0	53.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/30	California at SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/18	California vs UNLV	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for California's Schedule

Florida State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Florida State vs Georgia Tech	-10.0	54.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Mon 9/2	Florida State vs Boston College	-16.5	50.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Florida State vs Memphis	-7.0	52.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/21	Florida State vs California	-3.0	44.0	W 14 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Florida State at SMU	+6.0	46.0	L 16 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/5	Florida State vs Clemson	+16.5	47.0	L 13 - 29	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Florida State at Duke	+2.5	43.0	L 16 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Florida State at Miami	+22.5	55.0	L 14 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Florida State vs North Carolina	+2.5	50.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/9	Florida State at Notre Dame	+25.5	44.5	L 3 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Florida State vs Charleston Southern	-33.0	44.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida State vs Florida	+17.5	45.5	L 11 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL	#61 (.21)	41% (88)	25.3	44% (59)	3.39 (13)	173	38% (103)	218	4.12 (46)	#87 (.21)	45% (112)	27.2	47% (103)	44% (108)	4.4 (118)	44.8	2.2	2.2
FSU	#60 (.21)	41% (79)	33	39% (113)	2.64 (128)	150	43% (54)	251	4.45 (25)	#13 (.09)	36% (9)	22	40% (38)	32% (1)	3.5 (47)	56.6	0.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CAL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Offense	13	25.3	23.7	40.5%	4.12	2.2	21	391	173	218	4.5	50%	49%	44%	38%	18%	.21
FSU Defense	14	22	16.1	35.5%	3.5	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	32%	21%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CAL Defense	13	27.2	29.6	45%	4.4	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	47%	44%	16%	.21
FSU Offense	14	33	43.3	41.3%	4.45	0.6	20	401	150	251	4.5	47%	53%	39%	43%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
California	13	28:40	21.4	39%	52%	5.5	44.8	2.2	2.2	4.5	1.9	1	31.2
Florida State	14	29:23	19.6	36%	48%	6.1	56.6	0.6	1.2	6.7	3.2	2	29.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Offense	13	50% (68)	44% (59)	38.2	173.1	4.5	26 (30)	.24 (23)	3.39 (13)	75% (60)	11% (86)	1.11 (20)
FSU Defense	14	49% (49)	40% (38)	-	-	-	-	.12 (51)	2.75 (19)	77% (96)	12% (20)	1.07 (102)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CAL Defense	13	47% (32)	47% (103)	-	-	-	-	.14 (67)	3.1 (67)	73% (66)	9% (98)	0.98 (55)
FSU Offense	14	47% (93)	39% (113)	33.1	150.1	4.5	32 (10)	.07 (111)	2.64 (128)	63% (123)	9% (52)	1.06 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Offense	13	49% (64)	38% (103)	19.8	33.4	218.2	6.5	11	22 (61)	16 (121)	.21 (92)	1.6 (49)	33% (84)	27% (96)	.33 (70)	7% (97)	2 (67)
FSU Defense	14	51% (90)	32% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.06 (4)	1.6 (65)	36% (16)	27% (28)	.22 (22)	9% (2)	1.9 (24)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CAL Defense	13	52% (103)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.3 (88)	1.5 (34)	27% (129)	35% (121)	.36 (91)	7% (40)	1.8 (10)
FSU Offense	14	53% (39)	43% (54)	18.6	30.9	250.6	8.1	13.5	25 (37)	4 (2)	.34 (46)	1.6 (48)	32% (78)	31% (66)	.36 (61)	6% (67)	2.2 (32)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 4.77 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 386.00 #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 4.77 Florida State: -1.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: 4.0 Florida State: -3.2

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -1.545 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 529.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
California 28
Florida State 22

Projected Total Points: 50

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Florida State	14	California	9	Florida State -3	Florida State	44.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	1	1	0 Overs
California	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#44) CAL at (#83) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CAL	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#44	#83
SP+SP+	#55	#83
Perf GradeGrade	#72	#120
OffenseOff	#93	#124
DefenseDef	#32	#111
Spec TeamsST	#13	#19
TalentTal	#41	#12
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#13

California Notes(12/24) Signed QB D Brown (Ohio St)
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games
(9/8) Huge W @ Aub. Def held to 286yds & 5 TOs
California Injury Report

Florida State Notes(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
(9/30) DJ's hand inj may be long term
Florida State Injury Report

California on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#111
SuccessSuc	#88	#9
ExplosiveExp	#34	#79
PPAPPA	#61	#13
PowerPwr	#85	#87
SP+SP+	#65	#58
Pts POPPO	#46	#47
HavocHav	#93	#7

California Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#107	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	#59	#38
Run ExplRExp	#20	#102
PPAExp	#23	#51
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#13	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#19
TackleTak	-	#47

California Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	#103	#1
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#65
PPAExp	#92	#4
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#90	#93
F7 HavocF7	#86	#20
DB HavocDB	#97	#2

Florida State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	CAL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#124	#32
SuccessSuc	#79	#112
ExplosiveExp	#16	#47
PPAPPA	#60	#87
PowerPwr	#120	#39
SP+SP+	#114	#40
Pts POPPO	#25	#118
HavocHav	#57	#75

Florida State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#124	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#103
Run ExplRExp	#35	#55
PPAExp	#111	#67
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#128	#67
Stuff RateStuff	#111	#93
TackleTak	-	#28

Florida State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#34
PPAExp	#46	#88
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#76	#45
F7 HavocF7	#52	#98
DB HavocDB	#67	#40

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Florida State -3.0 (44.0)
Florida State won vs California this year (14-9)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat California in 2024 (14-9)

CAL's OC Mike Bloesch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	265	386	69%	3004	16	6	7.8
CJ Harris (Tr)	19	31	61%	184	0	1	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaivian Thomas	100	626	7	6.3	75
Jadyn Ott	116	385	4	3.3	53
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Fernando Mendoza	87	105	2	1.2	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Endries	56	623	2	11.1	57
Nyziah Hunter	40	578	5	14.5	60
Trond Grizzell	27	401	1	14.9	51
Jonathan Brady (Tr)	34	366	3	10.8	30

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
Craig Woodson	70	3	0	1	7
Cade Uluave	68	3	1	5	2
Nohl Williams	51	1	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Carlton	47	11	9	8	1
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
David Reese	22	8	5	1	2
Ryan McCulloch	18	5	3	8	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Nohl Williams	51	1	1	8
Craig Woodson	70	3	1	7
Lu-Magia Hearns III	12	0	0	5

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8
Brock Glenn	51	114	45%	597	4	5	5.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lawrance Toafili	109	456	3	4.2	28
Kam Davis	52	173	0	3.3	16
Luke Kromenhoek	63	113	0	1.8	42
Brock Glenn	35	97	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Khi Douglas	32	519	4	16.2	71
Malik Benson (Tr)	25	311	1	12.4	67
Lawrance Toafili	25	215	0	8.6	32
Hykeem Williams	16	187	1	11.7	33

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shyheim Brown	62	1	0	0	2
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
K.J. Kirkland	45	1	0	0	2
Blake Nichelson	45	4	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick Payton	32	10	4	4	0
Joshua Farmer	28	8	4	6	0
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)	25	6	4	3	0
Darrell Jackson	28	4	4	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fentrell Cypress II	24	1	0	1	5
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4