Memphis at Florida State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Memphis Tigers at Florida State Seminoles(#10)

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Florida State -7 (52.0) (-258) Open: -5.0
Memphis 20 - Florida State: 12

Tigers (11 - 2) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (31 - 19)
Avg Score : 36 - 24 (34 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Heavy Rain Shower Predicted
FSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Memphis -10.5 (SP+ MEM -13)
Projected Score: MEM: 31 - FSU: 21 (52)
FSU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MEM Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs behind

Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MEM Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Memphis's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Memphis vs North Alabama	-38.5	62.5	W 40 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Memphis vs Troy	-18.5	57.5	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Memphis at Florida State	+7.0	52.0	W 20 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Memphis at Navy	-9.5	47.0	L 44 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/28	Memphis vs Middle Tennessee	-27.0	62.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Memphis vs South Florida	-10.0	61.0	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Memphis vs North Texas	-10.5	67.5	W 52 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/26	Memphis vs Charlotte	-17.0	56.5	W 33 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/2	Memphis at UTSA	-7.0	62.0	L 36 - 44	O	N
Fri 11/8	Memphis vs Rice	-7.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/16	Memphis vs UAB	-16.0	62.0	W 53 - 18	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/28	Memphis at Tulane	+12.5	54.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Tue 12/17	Memphis vs West Virginia	-5.0	60.0	W 42 - 37	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule

Florida State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Florida State vs Georgia Tech	-10.0	54.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Mon 9/2	Florida State vs Boston College	-16.5	50.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Florida State vs Memphis	-7.0	52.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/21	Florida State vs California	-3.0	44.0	W 14 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Florida State at SMU	+6.0	46.0	L 16 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/5	Florida State vs Clemson	+16.5	47.0	L 13 - 29	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Florida State at Duke	+2.5	43.0	L 16 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Florida State at Miami	+22.5	55.0	L 14 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Florida State vs North Carolina	+2.5	50.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/9	Florida State at Notre Dame	+25.5	44.5	L 3 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Florida State vs Charleston Southern	-33.0	44.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida State vs Florida	+17.5	45.5	L 11 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MEM	#23 (.27)	44% (57)	35.7	46% (40)	3.27 (31)	175	41% (71)	270	4.66 (14)	#87 (.19)	40% (47)	23.8	40% (45)	40% (62)	4.05 (96)	48	0.6	1.9
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)	15.4	40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)	28	42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MEM	#23 (.27)	44% (57)		46% (40)	3.27 (31)	175	41% (71)	270	4.66 (14)	#87 (.19)	40% (47)		40% (45)	40% (62)	4.05 (96)	48	0.6	1.9
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)		40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)		42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MEM Offense	13	35.7	33.5	43.7%	4.66	0.6	23	446	175	270	5.1	46%	54%	46%	41%	12%	.27
FSU Defense	12	28	22.7	40.8%	3.62	0.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	42%	39%	14%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MEM Defense	13	23.8	34	40%	4.05	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	40%	40%	20%	.19
FSU Offense	12	15.4	16.4	35.4%	2.88	1.8	15	271	91	180	2.9	46%	54%	40%	31%	21%	.06

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Memphis	13	33:14	23.1	46%	52%	5.3	48	0.6	1.9	5.8	1.9	0	32.3
Florida State	12	27:11	15.2	29%	63%	5.6	47.9	1.8	0.5	5.8	2	1	26.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MEM Offense	13	46% (99)	46% (40)	34.2	175.1	5.1	33 (12)	.22 (26)	3.27 (31)	69% (93)	7% (17)	1.06 (38)
FSU Defense	12	56% (119)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.2 (109)	3.06 (81)	80% (111)	10% (77)	1.1 (114)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MEM Defense	13	43% (5)	40% (45)	-	-	-	-	.09 (50)	2.64 (20)	64% (22)	12% (20)	1.13 (120)
FSU Offense	12	46% (101)	40% (103)	31.4	90.8	2.9	8 (130)	.07 (101)	2.9 (92)	68% (103)	15% (130)	0.87 (118)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MEM Offense	13	54% (33)	41% (71)	23.8	36.8	270.5	7.3	11.3	25 (31)	6 (10)	.31 (42)	1.6 (47)	30% (44)	34% (40)	.47 (16)	5% (32)	2.1 (61)
FSU Defense	12	44% (15)	39% (52)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.34 (110)	1.8 (120)	33% (45)	34% (110)	.52 (127)	5% (116)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MEM Defense	13	56% (130)	40% (62)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.28 (90)	1.7 (93)	34% (40)	30% (70)	.43 (112)	8% (13)	2.4 (134)
FSU Offense	12	54% (35)	31% (130)	14.9	29.6	180.3	6.1	12.1	11 (122)	13 (103)	.04 (130)	1.8 (20)	39% (133)	26% (113)	.24 (102)	6% (62)	2.1 (28)

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 7.92 #36
Memphis's Offense Rating: 23.90 #29
Memphis's Defense Rating: 8.77 #61
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Memphis's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
Memphis's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #12
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #80

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 7.92 Florida State: -1.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 9.6 Florida State: -3.2

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -1.545 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.5
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Memphis's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Memphis 31
Florida State 21

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Memphis 33
Florida State 18

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Memphis 30
Florida State 23

Total Points: 53

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Florida State	12	Memphis	20	Florida State -7	Memphis	52.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	0	0	0 Overs
Memphis	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#36) MEM at (#83) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MEM	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#36	#83
SP+SP+	#31	#83
Perf GradeGrade	#37	#120
OffenseOff	#23	#124
DefenseDef	#67	#111
Spec TeamsST	#66	#19
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#13

Memphis Notes(12/18) Dumb, poorly coached football team
(12/17) DC Jordon Hankins makes zero adjustments
(11/28) Buried Tulane. Hennigan/Rgame good, R D great
(11/18) Off balanced and torched UAB. Still alive in AAC
(11/3) Def torched by UTSA, Henigan great/Rgame awful
(10/20) Def torched by N. Tex, Off was great esp Rgame
(10/13) Def stuff S Fla, 24 rush yds, 1.3 ypc. Off enough
(9/23) Huge L @ Navy. Had 660 yds in L, All. 361 Ryds
(9/15) Big W @ FSU. Henigan good, Run Def great
(8/13) Def should improve w/ P5 portals in (starters in P5)
(8/13) QB Henigan (10K yds), WR's are G5 best & freaks
(8/3) Fav'd in every game but FSU. USF/UTSA bigs
Memphis Injury Report

Florida State Notes(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
(9/30) DJ's hand inj may be long term
Florida State Injury Report

Memphis on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#23	#111
SuccessSuc	#57	#56
ExplosiveExp	#26	#114
PPAPPA	#23	#112
PowerPwr	#29	#87
SP+SP+	#12	#58
Pts POPPO	#14	#46
HavocHav	#18	#98

Memphis Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#29	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#62
Run ExplRExp	#38	#114
PPAExp	#26	#109
Run BlockR Blk	#11	-
OL YdsOLY	#31	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#49	#88
TackleTak	-	#47

Memphis Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	#71	#52
Pass ExplPExl	#47	#120
PPAExp	#42	#110
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#9	#93
F7 HavocF7	#17	#77
DB HavocDB	#32	#116

Florida State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	MEM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#124	#67
SuccessSuc	#128	#47
ExplosiveExp	#58	#123
PPAPPA	#125	#87
PowerPwr	#120	#61
SP+SP+	#114	#80
Pts POPPO	#131	#96
HavocHav	#129	#11

Florida State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#124	#31
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	#45
Run ExplRExp	#118	#120
PPAExp	#101	#50
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#92	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#14
TackleTak	-	#100

Florida State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#76
Pass SuccessPSuc	#130	#62
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#93
PPAExp	#130	#90
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#76	#119
F7 HavocF7	#130	#20
DB HavocDB	#62	#13

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

MEM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain Shower
Temp: 83° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Florida State -7.0 (52.0)
Memphis won at Florida State this year (20-12)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Florida State last year (20-12)

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Seth Henigan	309	477	65%	3502	25	6	7.3
Harris Boyd	1	1	100%	14	0	0	14.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mario Anderson (Tr)	236	1362	18	5.8	53
Brandon Thomas	57	335	9	5.9	57
Gregory DeRosiers	31	228	3	7.4	46
Seth Henigan	80	190	1	2.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roc Taylor	66	950	2	14.4	48
DeMeer Blankumsee	45	677	6	15.0	89
Kobe Drake	39	484	1	12.4	29
Anthony Landphere	33	379	4	11.5	31

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin	110	16	7	10	4
Gregory Rubin	74	6	0	3	8
Matt Hudson (Tr)	60	4	1	1	0
Elijah Herring (Tr)	59	8	4	3	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin	110	16	7	10	4
William Whitlow Jr.	24	8	5	3	1
Elijah Herring (Tr)	59	8	4	3	4
Kobee Minor (Tr)	37	7	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davion Ross	51	2	0	2	11
Gregory Rubin	74	6	0	3	8
Kobee Minor (Tr)	37	7	2	0	6

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8
Brock Glenn	51	114	45%	597	4	5	5.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lawrance Toafili	109	456	3	4.2	28
Kam Davis	52	173	0	3.3	16
Luke Kromenhoek	63	113	0	1.8	42
Brock Glenn	35	97	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Khi Douglas	32	519	4	16.2	71
Malik Benson (Tr)	25	311	1	12.4	67
Lawrance Toafili	25	215	0	8.6	32
Hykeem Williams	16	187	1	11.7	33

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shyheim Brown	62	1	0	0	2
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
K.J. Kirkland	45	1	0	0	2
Blake Nichelson	45	4	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick Payton	32	10	4	4	0
Joshua Farmer	28	8	4	6	0
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)	25	6	4	3	0
Darrell Jackson	28	4	4	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fentrell Cypress II	24	1	0	1	5
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4