Florida State at Notre Dame - 2024 Matchup Preview
Florida State logo (#7)Florida State Seminoles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#24)Notre Dame logo
Saturday, November 9th 2024 (7:30 PM EST)
Notre Dame -25.5 (44.5) (-5000)  Open: -26.0 | 42.5
Notre Dame 52 - Florida State: 3

 
Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
ND coming off BYE
FSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -31   (SP+ ND -27)

Projected Score: FSU: 8 - ND: 39 (46)
ND Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
FSU Travel: 785 miles
Fighting Irish (14 - 2) (13 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (34 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Florida State vs Georgia Tech-10.054.5L 21 - 24UN
Mon 9/2 Florida State vs Boston College-16.550.0L 13 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Florida State vs Memphis-7.052.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 9/21 Florida State vs California-3.044.0W 14 - 9UY
Sat 9/28 Florida State at SMU+6.046.0L 16 - 42ON
Sat 10/5 Florida State vs Clemson+16.547.0L 13 - 29UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Florida State at Duke+2.543.0L 16 - 23UN
Sat 10/26 Florida State at Miami+22.555.0L 14 - 36UY
Sat 11/2 Florida State vs North Carolina+2.550.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 11/9 Florida State at Notre Dame+25.544.5L 3 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Florida State vs Charleston Southern-33.044.5W 41 - 7OY
Sat 11/30 Florida State vs Florida+17.545.5L 11 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 4, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Notre Dame at Texas A&M+3.047.0W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/7 Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois-28.546.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/14 Notre Dame at Purdue-11.545.5W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/21 Notre Dame vs Miami (OH)-27.544.0W 28 - 3UN
Sat 9/28 Notre Dame vs Louisville-6.545.0W 31 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Notre Dame vs Stanford-22.545.5W 49 - 7OY
Sat 10/19 Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech-14.049.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-14.050.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Notre Dame vs Florida State-25.544.5W 52 - 3OY
Sat 11/16 Notre Dame vs Virginia-20.551.0W 35 - 14UY
Sat 11/23 Notre Dame vs Army-14.544.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 11/30 Notre Dame at USC-6.552.5W 49 - 35OY
Fri 12/20 Notre Dame vs Indiana-7.050.0W 27 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Notre Dame vs Georgia-1.546.5W 23 - 10UY
Thu 1/9 Notre Dame vs Penn State+1.545.5W 27 - 24OY
Mon 1/20 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+8.545.5L 23 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)15.440% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)2842% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)36.147% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)15.543% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense1215.412.335.4%2.881.815271911802.946%54%40%31%21%.06
ND Defense1615.51236.4%2.751.8 - - - - - 51%48%43%29%19%-.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122838.340.8%3.620.5 - - - - - 56%44%42%39%14%.25
ND Offense1636.133.747%4.80.8173411811606.353%47%47%47%11%.32

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1227:1115.229%63%5.647.91.80.55.82126.3
Notre Dame1624:3416.839%76%4.842.40.81.842.1533.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1246% (101)40% (103)31.490.82.98 (130).07 (101)2.9 (92)68% (103)15% (130)0.87 (118)
ND Defense1651% (78)43% (73) - - - - .1 (58)2.9 (49)67% (29)10% (57)0.85 (12)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1256% (119)42% (62) - - - - .2 (109)3.06 (81)80% (111)10% (77)1.1 (114)
ND Offense1653% (46)47% (26)28.6181.36.342 (3).36 (2)3.31 (24)73% (71)8% (26)1.3 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1254% (35)31% (130)14.929.6180.36.112.111 (122)13 (103).04 (130)1.8 (20)39% (133)26% (113).24 (102)6% (62)2.1 (28)
ND Defense1648% (59)29% (1) - - - - - - 18 (4)-.15 (1)1.6 (67)34% (29)27% (24).1 (2)8% (6)1.6 (2)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (15)39% (52) - - - - - - 4 (125).34 (110)1.8 (120)33% (45)34% (110).52 (127)5% (116)2.3 (121)
ND Offense1647% (89)47% (21)14.922.4159.97.210.820 (58)6 (10).29 (50)1.3 (133)28% (19)32% (58).45 (22)3% (6)2.1 (50)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -4.89   Notre Dame: 26.78

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -3.2   Notre Dame: 23.9




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 26.78 #5
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -1.27 #2
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Notre Dame's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9 #8
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #7

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.3
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.3

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 39
Florida State 8


Total Points: 46

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.7
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 12

Notre Dame's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 13 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Notre Dame52Florida State3Notre DameNotre Dame -25.5Notre Dame44.5Over
202109/05Florida State38Notre Dame41Notre DameNotre Dame -7Florida State53.5Over
202010/10Notre Dame42Florida State26Notre DameNotre Dame -21.0Florida State54.0Over
201811/10Notre Dame42Florida State13Notre DameNotre Dame -16.5Notre Dame49.5Over
201410/18Florida State31Notre Dame27Florida StateFlorida State -13.5Notre Dame0
201112/29Notre Dame14Florida State18Florida State
200311/01Notre Dame0Florida State37Florida State
200210/26Florida State24Notre Dame34Notre Dame
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame534 Overs
Florida State320 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 43 - 22 - 21 - 0
Road Teams4 - 42 - 30 - 12 - 2

(#83) Florida State Info
Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.88 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.62 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Florida State has lost 5 straight
Florida State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 4 (1 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Florida State Notes
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad

Florida State Highlights

Florida State Deficiencies
Florida State has a really bad Offense
Florida State has a bad TO Margin (#28)
Florida State Fumbles a Lot (#89)
Florida State Can Not Run the Ball (#35)
Florida State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#1)
Florida State offense is really bad (#76)
Florida State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#13)
Florida State run game is really bad (#63)
Florida State pass game is really bad (#109)
Florida State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Florida State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#79)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNDFSU
OverallOver#8#87
OffenseOff#11#100
DefenseDef#8#91
Special TeamsST#5#17
PassingPass#30#88
RushingRush#4#92
Run BlockRBLK#12#93
Pass BlockPBLK#54#67
Route RunningWR Rt#53#97
TacklingTkl#8#42
Run DefenseR Def#28#83
Pass Rush DefPRush#15#79
Coverage DefCov#2#87

Rematch from Week 11
Notre Dame -25.5 (44.5)
Notre Dame won vs Florida State this year (52-3)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Florida State last year (52-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FSU | ND
Depth Chart: FSU | ND
Rosters: FSU | ND
(#5) Notre Dame Info
Power Rating: 26.78 #5
Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Defense Rating: -1.27 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9 #8
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #4
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #7
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.8 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Great Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Great Pass Def Success 29%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Notre Dame has won 6 straight
Notre Dame has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Notre Dame Highlights
Notre Dame has Really Good Running Game (#126)
Notre Dame offense is efficent (#75)
Notre Dame has a top Offensive Line (#115)
Notre Dame offense is good in red zone (#22)
Notre Dame Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Notre Dame has a really good defense (#104)
Notre Dame defense does not give up big plays (#63)
Notre Dame defense is really good in red zone (#113)
Notre Dame has a good pass defense (#110)
Notre Dame Secondary is very good (#113)
Notre Dame has a great TO Margin (#54)
Notre Dame defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Notre Dame Deficiencies


  
Florida State's OC Alex Atkins
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)8415654%1065466.8
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lawrance Toafili10945634.228
Kam Davis5217303.316
Luke Kromenhoek6311301.842
Brock Glenn359702.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Khi Douglas32519416.271
Malik Benson (Tr)25311112.467
Lawrance Toafili2521508.632
Hykeem Williams16187111.733

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Adam Fuller
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
Azareye'h Thomas512024
K.J. Kirkland451002
Blake Nichelson454100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick Payton3210440
Joshua Farmer288460
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)256430
Darrell Jackson284441
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fentrell Cypress II241015
Azareye'h Thomas512024
Kevin Knowles II311114

Notre Dame's OC Mike Denbrock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Riley Leonard (Tr)26940367%28612187.1
Steven Angeli243667%268307.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love1631124176.998
Riley Leonard (Tr)184906174.950
Jadarian Price12074676.270
Aneyas Williams3421926.458
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Greathouse42592414.154
Beaux Collins (Tr)41490312.053
Mitchell Evans4342139.833
Jordan Faison30356111.944

View Notre Dame's Full Roster
Notre Dame's DC Al Golden
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kiser905231
Xavier Watts834049
Drayk Bowen784122
Adon Shuler593025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rylie Mills379840
Howard Cross III275431
Donovan Hinish344441
Junior Tuihalamaka326331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leonard Moore4820111
Xavier Watts834049
Christian Gray353009