Florida State at Notre Dame - 2024 Matchup Preview

Florida State Seminoles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (7:30 PM EST)
Notre Dame -25.5 (44.5) (-5000) Open: -26.0 | 42.5
Notre Dame 52 - Florida State: 3

Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ND coming off BYE
FSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -31 (SP+ ND -27)
Projected Score: FSU: 10 - ND: 41 (51)
ND Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
FSU Travel: 785 miles

Fighting Irish (14 - 2) (13 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (45 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FSU Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Florida State vs Georgia Tech	-10.0	54.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Mon 9/2	Florida State vs Boston College	-16.5	50.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Florida State vs Memphis	-7.0	52.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/21	Florida State vs California	-3.0	44.0	W 14 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Florida State at SMU	+6.0	46.0	L 16 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/5	Florida State vs Clemson	+16.5	47.0	L 13 - 29	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Florida State at Duke	+2.5	43.0	L 16 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Florida State at Miami	+22.5	55.0	L 14 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Florida State vs North Carolina	+2.5	50.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/9	Florida State at Notre Dame	+25.5	44.5	L 3 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Florida State vs Charleston Southern	-33.0	44.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida State vs Florida	+17.5	45.5	L 11 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Notre Dame at Texas A&M	+3.0	47.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois	-28.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/14	Notre Dame at Purdue	-11.5	45.5	W 66 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Notre Dame vs Miami (OH)	-27.5	44.0	W 28 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/28	Notre Dame vs Louisville	-6.5	45.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Notre Dame vs Stanford	-22.5	45.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech	-14.0	49.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Notre Dame vs Navy	-14.0	50.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Notre Dame vs Florida State	-25.5	44.5	W 52 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Notre Dame vs Virginia	-20.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Notre Dame vs Army	-14.5	44.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Notre Dame at USC	-6.5	52.5	W 49 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/20	Notre Dame vs Indiana	-7.0	50.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Notre Dame vs Georgia	-1.5	46.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Thu 1/9	Notre Dame vs Penn State	+1.5	45.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Mon 1/20	Notre Dame vs Ohio State	+8.5	45.5	L 23 - 34	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#60 (.21)	41% (79)	33	39% (113)	2.64 (128)	150	43% (54)	251	4.45 (25)	#13 (.09)	36% (9)	22	40% (38)	32% (1)	3.5 (47)	56.6	0.6	1.2
ND	#8 (.35)	49% (9)	42	51% (9)	3.37 (15)	186	48% (19)	247	4.87 (7)	#6 (.04)	35% (7)	17.6	37% (21)	33% (3)	2.97 (11)	48.2	1.3	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Offense	14	33	18.6	41.3%	4.45	0.6	20	401	150	251	4.5	47%	53%	39%	43%	15%	.21
ND Defense	13	17.6	18	34.6%	2.97	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	33%	18%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Defense	14	22	30.2	35.5%	3.5	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	32%	21%	.09
ND Offense	13	42	44.7	49.3%	4.87	1.3	21	433	186	247	5.3	52%	47%	51%	48%	11%	.35

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida State	14	29:23	19.6	36%	48%	6.1	56.6	0.6	1.2	6.7	3.2	2	29.5
Notre Dame	13	30:48	20.9	45%	59%	5.4	48.2	1.3	1.8	4.8	1.9	4	29.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Offense	14	47% (93)	39% (113)	33.1	150.1	4.5	32 (10)	.07 (111)	2.64 (128)	63% (123)	9% (52)	1.06 (35)
ND Defense	13	50% (61)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	.07 (29)	2.85 (26)	67% (34)	11% (50)	1.05 (92)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Defense	14	49% (49)	40% (38)	-	-	-	-	.12 (51)	2.75 (19)	77% (96)	12% (20)	1.07 (102)
ND Offense	13	52% (45)	51% (9)	35.2	186.3	5.3	28 (25)	.23 (27)	3.37 (15)	72% (83)	7% (10)	0.97 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Offense	14	53% (39)	43% (54)	18.6	30.9	250.6	8.1	13.5	25 (37)	4 (2)	.34 (46)	1.6 (48)	32% (78)	31% (66)	.36 (61)	6% (67)	2.2 (32)
ND Defense	13	49% (67)	33% (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.04 (2)	1.5 (40)	36% (14)	25% (14)	.23 (26)	7% (27)	1.9 (20)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Defense	14	51% (90)	32% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.06 (4)	1.6 (65)	36% (16)	27% (28)	.22 (22)	9% (2)	1.9 (24)
ND Offense	13	47% (85)	48% (19)	17.5	27	246.5	9.1	14.1	31 (14)	9 (40)	.51 (8)	1.8 (16)	28% (10)	37% (19)	.53 (14)	4% (11)	2.1 (60)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 529.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -4.89 Notre Dame: 26.78

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -3.2 Notre Dame: 23.9

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 26.78 #5
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -1.27 #2
2024 Talent Rating: 554.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Notre Dame's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9 #8
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #7

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 392
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 41
Florida State 10

Projected Total Points: 51

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.7
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Notre Dame's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 13 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	Notre Dame	52	Florida State	3	Notre Dame -25.5	Notre Dame	44.5	Over
2021	09/05	Florida State	38	Notre Dame	41	Notre Dame -7	Florida State	53.5	Over
2020	10/10	Notre Dame	42	Florida State	26	Notre Dame -21.0	Florida State	54.0	Over
2018	11/10	Notre Dame	42	Florida State	13	Notre Dame -16.5	Notre Dame	49.5	Over
2014	10/18	Florida State	31	Notre Dame	27	Florida State -13.5	Notre Dame	0
2011	12/29	Notre Dame	14	Florida State	18
2003	11/01	Notre Dame	0	Florida State	37
2002	10/26	Florida State	24	Notre Dame	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	5	3	4 Overs
Florida State	3	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 4	3 - 2	2 - 2	1 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 4	2 - 3	0 - 1	2 - 2

(#83) FSU at (#5) ND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FSU	ND
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#83	#5
SP+SP+	#83	#8
Perf GradeGrade	#120	#10
OffenseOff	#124	#11
DefenseDef	#111	#10
Spec TeamsST	#19	#5
TalentTal	#12	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	#13	#8

Florida State Notes(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
(9/30) DJ's hand inj may be long term
Florida State Injury Report

Notre Dame Injury Report

Florida State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	ND Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#124	#10
SuccessSuc	#79	#7
ExplosiveExp	#16	#57
PPAPPA	#60	#6
PowerPwr	#120	#2
SP+SP+	#114	#7
Pts POPPO	#25	#11
HavocHav	#57	#32

Florida State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#124	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#113	#21
Run ExplRExp	#35	#92
PPAExp	#111	#29
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#128	#26
Stuff RateStuff	#111	#18
TackleTak	-	#9

Florida State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#3
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#40
PPAExp	#46	#2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#76	#15
F7 HavocF7	#52	#50
DB HavocDB	#67	#27

Notre Dame on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	FSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#11	#111
SuccessSuc	#9	#9
ExplosiveExp	#44	#79
PPAPPA	#8	#13
PowerPwr	#24	#87
SP+SP+	#4	#58
Pts POPPO	#7	#47
HavocHav	#7	#7

Notre Dame Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#4	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	#9	#38
Run ExplRExp	#86	#102
PPAExp	#27	#51
Run BlockR Blk	#13	-
OL YdsOLY	#15	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#19
TackleTak	-	#47

Notre Dame Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#37	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	#19	#1
Pass ExplPExl	#16	#65
PPAExp	#8	#4
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#93
F7 HavocF7	#10	#20
DB HavocDB	#11	#2

Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

FSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Notre Dame -25.5 (44.5)
Notre Dame won vs Florida State this year (52-3)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Florida State in 2024 (52-3)

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8
Brock Glenn	51	114	45%	597	4	5	5.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lawrance Toafili	109	456	3	4.2	28
Kam Davis	52	173	0	3.3	16
Luke Kromenhoek	63	113	0	1.8	42
Brock Glenn	35	97	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Khi Douglas	32	519	4	16.2	71
Malik Benson (Tr)	25	311	1	12.4	67
Lawrance Toafili	25	215	0	8.6	32
Hykeem Williams	16	187	1	11.7	33

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shyheim Brown	62	1	0	0	2
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
K.J. Kirkland	45	1	0	0	2
Blake Nichelson	45	4	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick Payton	32	10	4	4	0
Joshua Farmer	28	8	4	6	0
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)	25	6	4	3	0
Darrell Jackson	28	4	4	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fentrell Cypress II	24	1	0	1	5
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard (Tr)	269	403	67%	2861	21	8	7.1
Steven Angeli	24	36	67%	268	3	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiyah Love	163	1124	17	6.9	98
Riley Leonard (Tr)	184	906	17	4.9	50
Jadarian Price	120	746	7	6.2	70
Aneyas Williams	34	219	2	6.4	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Greathouse	42	592	4	14.1	54
Beaux Collins (Tr)	41	490	3	12.0	53
Mitchell Evans	43	421	3	9.8	33
Jordan Faison	30	356	1	11.9	44

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Kiser	90	5	2	3	1
Xavier Watts	83	4	0	4	9
Drayk Bowen	78	4	1	2	2
Adon Shuler	59	3	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rylie Mills	37	9	8	4	0
Howard Cross III	27	5	4	3	1
Donovan Hinish	34	4	4	4	1
Junior Tuihalamaka	32	6	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Leonard Moore	48	2	1	11
Xavier Watts	83	4	4	9
Christian Gray	35	3	0	9