Boston College at Florida State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Boston College Eagles at Florida State Seminoles

Monday, September 2nd 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Florida State -16.5 (50.0) (-900) Open: -22.0 | 51.5
Boston College 28 - Florida State: 13 (ACC)

Eagles (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bill O'Brien (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 24 (22 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Boston College -3.5 (SP+ BC -4.5)
Projected Score: BC: 26 - FSU: 23 (49)
FSU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
BC Travel: 1097 miles

Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BC Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Boston College's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/2	Boston College at Florida State	+16.5	50.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Boston College vs Duquesne	-33.5	52.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Boston College at Missouri	+14.5	51.5	L 21 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Boston College vs Michigan State	-4.5	45.5	W 23 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/28	Boston College vs Western Kentucky	-7.5	48.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Boston College at Virginia	+2.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/17	Boston College at Virginia Tech	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 42	O	N
Fri 10/25	Boston College vs Louisville	+7.0	54.0	L 27 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Boston College vs Syracuse	-5.5	51.5	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Boston College at SMU	+19.0	54.5	L 28 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Boston College vs North Carolina	+2.0	50.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Boston College vs Pittsburgh	-3.5	50.5	W 34 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/28	Boston College vs Nebraska	+3.0	47.5	L 15 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boston College's Schedule

Florida State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Florida State vs Georgia Tech	-10.0	54.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Mon 9/2	Florida State vs Boston College	-16.5	50.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Florida State vs Memphis	-7.0	52.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/21	Florida State vs California	-3.0	44.0	W 14 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Florida State at SMU	+6.0	46.0	L 16 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/5	Florida State vs Clemson	+16.5	47.0	L 13 - 29	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Florida State at Duke	+2.5	43.0	L 16 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Florida State at Miami	+22.5	55.0	L 14 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Florida State vs North Carolina	+2.5	50.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/9	Florida State at Notre Dame	+25.5	44.5	L 3 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Florida State vs Charleston Southern	-33.0	44.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida State vs Florida	+17.5	45.5	L 11 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)	28.2	41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)	23.8	40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)	15.4	40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)	28	42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BC	#89 (.16)	41% (93)		41% (96)	2.87 (99)	164	41% (78)	176	4 (58)	#56 (.15)	42% (74)		40% (40)	44% (104)	3.64 (51)	40	1.2	1.8
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)		40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)		42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BC Offense	13	28.2	22.4	40.9%	4	1.2	18	340	164	176	4.3	56%	44%	41%	41%	13%	.16
FSU Defense	12	28	22.7	40.8%	3.62	0.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	42%	39%	14%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BC Defense	13	23.8	28.8	42.2%	3.64	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	40%	44%	16%	.15
FSU Offense	12	15.4	16.4	35.4%	2.88	1.8	15	271	91	180	2.9	46%	54%	40%	31%	21%	.06

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Boston College	13	29:25	17.8	43%	50%	4.2	40	1.2	1.8	4.7	2	3	30.3
Florida State	12	27:11	15.2	29%	63%	5.6	47.9	1.8	0.5	5.8	2	1	26.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BC Offense	13	56% (26)	41% (96)	38.2	164.2	4.3	22 (55)	.01 (120)	2.87 (99)	72% (79)	9% (53)	0.86 (120)
FSU Defense	12	56% (119)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.2 (109)	3.06 (81)	80% (111)	10% (77)	1.1 (114)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BC Defense	13	45% (12)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	.05 (33)	2.84 (43)	82% (120)	9% (96)	0.92 (40)
FSU Offense	12	46% (101)	40% (103)	31.4	90.8	2.9	8 (130)	.07 (101)	2.9 (92)	68% (103)	15% (130)	0.87 (118)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BC Offense	13	44% (108)	41% (78)	13.9	22.2	176.2	7.9	12.7	24 (38)	7 (26)	.34 (29)	1.9 (7)	30% (50)	32% (68)	.34 (68)	4% (12)	2.3 (11)
FSU Defense	12	44% (15)	39% (52)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.34 (110)	1.8 (120)	33% (45)	34% (110)	.52 (127)	5% (116)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BC Defense	13	55% (123)	44% (104)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.23 (67)	1.4 (12)	32% (71)	29% (43)	.2 (26)	7% (36)	1.8 (22)
FSU Offense	12	54% (35)	31% (130)	14.9	29.6	180.3	6.1	12.1	11 (122)	13 (103)	.04 (130)	1.8 (20)	39% (133)	26% (113)	.24 (102)	6% (62)	2.1 (28)

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: 2.59 #51
Boston College's Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Boston College's Defense Rating: 8.62 #58
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Boston College's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Boston College's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #70
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #62
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #56

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Boston College: 2.59 Florida State: -1.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boston College: 1.2 Florida State: -3.2

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -1.545 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Boston College Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.4
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Boston College's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Boston College 26
Florida State 23

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida State 31
Boston College 16

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Boston College 25
Florida State 21

Total Points: 46

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/02	Florida State	13	Boston College	28	Florida State -16.5	Boston College	50.0	Under
2023	09/16	Boston College	29	Florida State	31	Florida State -25.5	Boston College	48.0	Over
2022	09/24	Florida State	44	Boston College	14	Florida State -18.5	Florida State	48.5	Over
2021	11/20	Boston College	23	Florida State	26	Boston College -3	Florida State	55.5	Under
2019	11/09	Boston College	31	Florida State	38	Boston College -1	Florida State	64.5	Over
2018	11/17	Florida State	22	Boston College	21	Boston College -2.5	Florida State	47.5	Under
2017	10/27	Boston College	35	Florida State	3	Florida State -6	Boston College	46.5	Under
2016	11/11	Florida State	45	Boston College	7	Florida State -23	Florida State	47.0	Over
2015	09/18	Boston College	0	Florida State	14	Florida State -10.5	Florida State	47.5	Under
2014	11/22	Florida State	20	Boston College	17	Florida State -20.5	Boston College	0
2013	09/28	Boston College	34	Florida State	48	Florida State -23	Boston College	0
2012	10/13	Florida State	51	Boston College	7
2011	11/03	Boston College	7	Florida State	38
2010	10/16	Florida State	24	Boston College	19
2009	10/03	Boston College	28	Florida State	21
2008	11/15	Florida State	17	Boston College	27
2007	11/03	Boston College	17	Florida State	27
2006	10/21	Florida State	19	Boston College	24
2005	09/17	Boston College	17	Florida State	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	14	6	4 Overs
Boston College	5	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 11	6 - 5	2 - 4	4 - 1
Road Teams	11 - 8	5 - 6	1 - 4	4 - 2

(#51) BC at (#83) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BC	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#51	#83
SP+SP+	#70	#83
Perf GradeGrade	#56	#120
OffenseOff	#64	#124
DefenseDef	#33	#111
Spec TeamsST	#114	#19
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#13

Boston College Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled NC, James OK, Def great in W
(11/18) Good fight @ SMU, QB James/Rgame meh, Def OK
(11/14) QB Castellanos entering the portal
(11/13) Rgame 321 yds, 6.7 ypc, att only 13 pass in Cuse W
(11/12) QB Cast. benched, James to start vs SMU
(11/8) No Kicking game, att only 1 FG, missed XPs
(10/17) Run D mauled by VT 368 yds, 9.2 ypc. Rgame bad
(10/6) Off bad, Rgame awful, 3 TO's in L @ UVA
(9/28) OG by WKU, Off awful w/ QB James. 3 TOs to W
(9/27) QB Castellanos out vs WKU (und inj)
(9/23) QB Cast. much improved. 10 TDs, 2 Ints so far
(9/23) Outgained by MSU but 4 TOs in big W
Boston College Injury Report

Florida State Notes(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
(9/30) DJ's hand inj may be long term
Florida State Injury Report

Boston College on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#111
SuccessSuc	#93	#56
ExplosiveExp	#42	#114
PPAPPA	#89	#112
PowerPwr	#75	#87
SP+SP+	#62	#58
Pts POPPO	#58	#46
HavocHav	#24	#98

Boston College Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#104	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	#96	#62
Run ExplRExp	#120	#114
PPAExp	#120	#109
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#64	#88
TackleTak	-	#47

Boston College Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	BC Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#52
Pass ExplPExl	#7	#120
PPAExp	#29	#110
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#35	#93
F7 HavocF7	#53	#77
DB HavocDB	#12	#116

Florida State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	BC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#124	#33
SuccessSuc	#128	#74
ExplosiveExp	#58	#30
PPAPPA	#125	#56
PowerPwr	#120	#58
SP+SP+	#114	#56
Pts POPPO	#131	#51
HavocHav	#129	#72

Florida State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	BC Def
Run GameRun	#124	#30
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	#40
Run ExplRExp	#118	#40
PPAExp	#101	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#92	#43
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#67
TackleTak	-	#39

Florida State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	BC Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	#130	#104
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#12
PPAExp	#130	#67
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#76	#62
F7 HavocF7	#130	#96
DB HavocDB	#62	#36

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

BC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 80°( - Hum: 80%)
- Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Florida State -16.5 (50.0)
Boston College won at Florida State this year (28-13)

Previous Matchups
Boston College beat Florida State last year (28-13)
Florida State beat Boston College in 2023 (31-29)
Florida State beat Boston College in 2022 (44-14)

BC's OC Will Lawing (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Grayson James (Tr)	106	166	64%	1202	6	2	7.2
Thomas Castellanos	99	161	62%	1366	18	5	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kye Robichaux	175	744	10	4.3	41
Treshaun Ward (Tr)	77	406	2	5.3	36
Jordan Mcdonald (Tr)	53	361	3	6.8	41
Turbo Richard	55	278	2	5.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lewis Bond	67	689	3	10.3	49
Reed Harris	17	486	4	28.6	72
Kamari Morales (Tr)	28	325	6	11.6	54
Jeremiah Franklin	27	311	3	11.5	34

View Boston College's Full Roster

BC's DC Tim Lewis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3
Carter Davis	43	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan Ezeiruaku	76	19	14	14	1
Quintayvious Hutchins	29	6	4	8	0
Owen Stoudmire	29	4	3	2	0
Daveon Crouch	74	7	2	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KP Price	81	2	1	1	5
Ryan Turner (Tr)	13	2	1	0	4
Amari Jackson	18	0	0	0	4

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8
Brock Glenn	51	114	45%	597	4	5	5.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lawrance Toafili	109	456	3	4.2	28
Kam Davis	52	173	0	3.3	16
Luke Kromenhoek	63	113	0	1.8	42
Brock Glenn	35	97	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Khi Douglas	32	519	4	16.2	71
Malik Benson (Tr)	25	311	1	12.4	67
Lawrance Toafili	25	215	0	8.6	32
Hykeem Williams	16	187	1	11.7	33

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shyheim Brown	62	1	0	0	2
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
K.J. Kirkland	45	1	0	0	2
Blake Nichelson	45	4	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick Payton	32	10	4	4	0
Joshua Farmer	28	8	4	6	0
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)	25	6	4	3	0
Darrell Jackson	28	4	4	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fentrell Cypress II	24	1	0	1	5
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4