Penn State at Minnesota - 2024 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo (#2)Penn State Nittany Lions at Minnesota Golden GophersMinnesota logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Penn State -11 (45.0) (-425)  Open: -10.0
Penn State 26 - Minnesota: 25  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
PSU 2nd straight Road Game
MINN coming off BYE
PSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -12   (SP+ PSU -14)

Projected Score: PSU: 29 - MINN: 17 (46)
PSU Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 828 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (29 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Penn State at West Virginia-7.548.0W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/7 Penn State vs Bowling Green-35.551.5W 34 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Penn State vs Kent State-49.058.0W 56 - 0UY
Sat 9/28 Penn State vs Illinois-19.548.0W 21 - 7UN
Sat 10/5 Penn State vs UCLA-30.048.0W 27 - 11UN
Sat 10/12 Penn State at USC-3.551.5W 33 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Penn State at Wisconsin-6.547.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 11/2 Penn State vs Ohio State+3.047.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 11/9 Penn State vs Washington-13.548.0W 35 - 6UY
Sat 11/16 Penn State at Purdue-30.051.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 11/23 Penn State at Minnesota-11.045.0W 26 - 25ON
Sat 11/30 Penn State vs Maryland-26.550.5W 44 - 7OY
Sat 12/7 Penn State vs Oregon+3.551.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 12/21 Penn State vs SMU-9.052.5W 38 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Penn State vs Boise State-11.554.5W 31 - 14UY
Thu 1/9 Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5L 24 - 27ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 3, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Minnesota vs North Carolina+2.052.5L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/7 Minnesota vs Rhode Island-27.547.5W 48 - 0OY
Sat 9/14 Minnesota vs Nevada-17.544.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Minnesota vs Iowa+3.034.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 9/28 Minnesota at Michigan+10.534.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/5 Minnesota vs USC+8.545.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 10/12 Minnesota at UCLA-3.539.0W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Minnesota vs Maryland-6.045.0W 48 - 23OY
Sat 11/2 Minnesota at Illinois-2.547.0W 25 - 17UY
Sat 11/9 Minnesota at Rutgers-6.544.5L 19 - 26ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Minnesota vs Penn State+11.045.0L 25 - 26OY
Fri 11/29 Minnesota at Wisconsin-1.540.5W 24 - 7UY
Fri 1/3 Minnesota vs Virginia Tech-10.043.5W 24 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)33.152% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)16.539% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)26.244% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)16.936% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)44% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)36% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense1633.13451.3%4.690.8203851762095.354%46%52%51%10%.32
MINN Defense1316.916.638.9%3.321.5 - - - - - 50%50%36%42%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1616.51837.9%3.221.3 - - - - - 48%52%39%37%18%.05
MINN Offense1326.22944.9%4.380.8193071032043.744%56%44%46%16%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1626:5120.448%70%4.441.40.81.35.52.3428.9
Minnesota1329:1318.545%90%4.535.60.81.54.41.8228.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1654% (38)52% (9)33.2176.25.331 (17).24 (20)3.42 (10)76% (51)7% (8)0.92 (90)
MINN Defense1350% (63)36% (8) - - - - .02 (19)2.71 (22)74% (69)9% (90)0.95 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1648% (43)39% (27) - - - - -.01 (12)2.37 (3)75% (75)12% (26)0.92 (42)
MINN Offense1344% (111)44% (65)28.2102.93.717 (84).11 (80)2.7 (119)73% (69)10% (80)0.88 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1646% (95)51% (4)16.724.3208.88.612.527 (20)9 (48).41 (11)1.5 (107)26% (3)35% (31).46 (20)3% (5)2 (85)
MINN Defense1350% (71)42% (80) - - - - - - 16 (10).15 (27)1.3 (6)33% (43)26% (16).15 (10)10% (1)1.8 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1652% (96)37% (25) - - - - - - 15 (18).1 (16)1.7 (91)36% (14)27% (25).2 (29)6% (57)2.1 (95)
MINN Offense1356% (25)46% (29)19.529.2204.1710.518 (68)5 (6).27 (58)1.4 (129)30% (46)31% (80).32 (76)6% (70)2 (75)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.26   Minnesota: 12.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.6   Minnesota: 10.4




Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 12.545 #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 29
Minnesota 17


Total Points: 46

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 16.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.6

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Minnesota25Penn State26Penn StatePenn State -11Minnesota45.0Over
202210/22Penn State45Minnesota17Penn StatePenn State -5.5Penn State43.0Over
201911/09Minnesota31Penn State26MinnesotaPenn State -7.0Minnesota49.0Over
201610/01Penn State29Minnesota26Penn StatePenn State -4Minnesota54.5Over
201311/09Minnesota24Penn State10MinnesotaMinnesota -2.5Minnesota47.5Under
201010/23Minnesota21Penn State33Penn State
200910/17Penn State20Minnesota0Penn State
200610/07Minnesota27Penn State28Penn State
200510/01Penn State44Minnesota14Penn State
200410/02Minnesota16Penn State7Minnesota
200309/27Penn State14Minnesota20Minnesota
200010/06Minnesota25Penn State16Minnesota
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Minnesota544 Overs
Penn State711 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 44 - 12 - 12 - 0
Road Teams4 - 81 - 40 - 21 - 2

(#6) Penn State Info
Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Great Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.69 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.22 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Penn State has won 2 straight
Penn State has won 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 6 - 0 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Penn State Highlights
Penn State has Really Good Running Game (#38)
Penn State offense is efficent (#25)
Penn State has a top Offensive Line (#13)
Penn State offense is good in red zone (#42)
Penn State offense is good on 3rd downs
Penn State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#3)

Penn State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Penn State has a really good defense (#6)
Penn State defense is really good in red zone (#5)
Penn State has a good run defense (#42)
Penn State has a good pass defense (#2)
Penn State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#50)
Penn State Defensive Line is very good (#12)
Penn State Front 7 is disruptive (#28)
Penn State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Penn State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Penn State Deficiencies
Penn State offense is not Explosive (#114)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMINNPSU
OverallOver#18#10
OffenseOff#37#15
DefenseDef#19#12
Special TeamsST#1#52
PassingPass#11#6
RushingRush#53#15
Run BlockRBLK#29#46
Pass BlockPBLK#68#76
Route RunningWR Rt#53#16
TacklingTkl#77#70
Run DefenseR Def#18#20
Pass Rush DefPRush#60#10
Coverage DefCov#33#15

Rematch from Week 13
Penn State 11.0 (45.0)
Penn State won at Minnesota this year (26-25)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Minnesota last year (26-25)
Penn State beat Minnesota in 2022 (45-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PSU | MINN
Depth Chart: PSU | MINN
Rosters: PSU | MINN
(#32) Minnesota Info
Power Rating: 12.545 #32
Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.32 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Minnesota has lost 1 straight
Minnesota has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 3 (5 - 1 - 1 vs Spread)

Minnesota Notes
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent

Minnesota Highlights
Minnesota offense is good in red zone (#93)
Minnesota offense is good on 3rd downs
Minnesota defense does not give up big plays (#83)
Minnesota defense is really good in red zone (#77)
Minnesota has a good run defense (#6)
Minnesota Defensive Line is very good (#9)
Minnesota Secondary is very good (#76)
Minnesota has a great TO Margin (#82)
Minnesota commits very few Penalties (#38)
Minnesota defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Minnesota Deficiencies
Minnesota Can Not Run the Ball (#49)
Minnesota offense is not Explosive (#72)


  
Penn State's OC Andy Kotelnicki
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar26239467%33272488.4
Beau Pribula263574%275517.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen220110885.032
Nicholas Singleton1721099126.458
Drew Allar9630263.122
Beau Pribula3824246.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyler Warren1041233811.938
Harrison Wallace III47732415.650
Omari Evans20403520.259
Nicholas Singleton4137559.127

View Penn State's Full Roster
Penn State's DC Tom Allen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Reed957312
Kobe King878311
Zakee Wheatley863104
Abdul Carter62241294
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Abdul Carter62241294
Dani Dennis-Sutton4013993
Amin Vanover215431
Jaylen Reed957312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II251006
Cam Miller233025
A.J. Harris (Tr)413005

Minnesota's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)26840367%28291867.0
Drake Lindsey4580%501010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor205986104.880
Marcus Major (Tr)7835234.540
Jaren Mangham (Tr)1912306.518
Jordan Nubin111901.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Jackson75863411.539
Elijah Spencer52685613.229
Darius Taylor5435026.522
Jameson Geers27286410.623

View Minnesota's Full Roster
Minnesota's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Lindenberg945136
Maverick Baranowski655112
Kerry Brown633004
Danny Striggow526561
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith27126101
Jack Henderson449611
Danny Striggow526561
Jah Joyner326597
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Walley4221110
Ethan Robinson (Tr)423009
Jah Joyner326597