Penn State at Minnesota - 2024 Matchup Preview

Penn State Nittany Lions at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Penn State -11 (45.0) (-425) Open: -10.0
Penn State 26 - Minnesota: 25 (Big Ten)

Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PSU 2nd straight Road Game
MINN coming off BYE
PSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -12 (SP+ PSU -14)
Projected Score: PSU: 30 - MINN: 18 (48)
PSU Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 828 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PSU Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Penn State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Penn State at West Virginia	-7.5	48.0	W 34 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Penn State vs Bowling Green	-35.5	51.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Penn State vs Kent State	-49.0	58.0	W 56 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Penn State vs Illinois	-19.5	48.0	W 21 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/5	Penn State vs UCLA	-30.0	48.0	W 27 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/12	Penn State at USC	-3.5	51.5	W 33 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Penn State at Wisconsin	-6.5	47.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Penn State vs Ohio State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	Penn State vs Washington	-13.5	48.0	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Penn State at Purdue	-30.0	51.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Penn State at Minnesota	-11.0	45.0	W 26 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/30	Penn State vs Maryland	-26.5	50.5	W 44 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Penn State vs Oregon	+3.5	51.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/21	Penn State vs SMU	-9.0	52.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Penn State vs Boise State	-11.5	54.5	W 31 - 14	U	Y
Thu 1/9	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-1.5	45.5	L 24 - 27	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Minnesota vs North Carolina	+2.0	52.5	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Minnesota vs Rhode Island	-27.5	47.5	W 48 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Minnesota vs Nevada	-17.5	44.5	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Minnesota vs Iowa	+3.0	34.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/28	Minnesota at Michigan	+10.5	34.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Minnesota vs USC	+8.5	45.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Minnesota at UCLA	-3.5	39.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Minnesota vs Maryland	-6.0	45.0	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Minnesota at Illinois	-2.5	47.0	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Minnesota at Rutgers	-6.5	44.5	L 19 - 26	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Minnesota vs Penn State	+11.0	45.0	L 25 - 26	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Minnesota at Wisconsin	-1.5	40.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Fri 1/3	Minnesota vs Virginia Tech	-10.0	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	#40 (.25)	46% (25)	31	49% (17)	3.38 (14)	185	43% (53)	215	4.96 (5)	#8 (.04)	33% (3)	20.5	31% (3)	36% (10)	3.09 (15)	43.3	0.6	1.8
MINN	#118 (.09)	41% (87)	23	44% (53)	3.15 (61)	158	36% (116)	143	3.85 (73)	#93 (.22)	43% (75)	22.9	45% (90)	41% (63)	4.67 (129)	27.1	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MINN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Offense	13	31	28.6	46.3%	4.96	0.6	23	400	185	215	4.7	50%	49%	49%	43%	11%	.25
MINN Defense	13	22.9	13	42.6%	4.67	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	45%	41%	11%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Defense	13	20.5	30.2	33.1%	3.09	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	31%	36%	23%	.04
MINN Offense	13	23	30.1	40.5%	3.85	1.3	18	301	158	143	4.1	59%	40%	44%	36%	13%	.09

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Penn State	13	32:30	22.5	41%	77%	5	43.3	0.6	1.8	7.8	3.8	3	33.8
Minnesota	13	31:49	18.2	35%	82%	3	27.1	1.3	1.5	3.2	1.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Offense	13	50% (65)	49% (17)	39.6	184.8	4.7	26 (30)	.19 (46)	3.38 (14)	73% (77)	7% (8)	0.85 (123)
MINN Defense	13	47% (34)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.2 (102)	3.15 (79)	80% (109)	7% (132)	0.99 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Defense	13	49% (52)	31% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (7)	2.23 (2)	76% (89)	18% (1)	0.96 (46)
MINN Offense	13	59% (12)	44% (53)	38.8	157.5	4.1	13 (108)	.11 (92)	3.15 (61)	75% (52)	7% (13)	0.83 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Offense	13	49% (63)	43% (53)	18.9	31.7	215	6.8	11.4	30 (16)	2 (1)	.3 (62)	1.5 (115)	27% (9)	35% (23)	.38 (50)	4% (7)	1.7 (129)
MINN Defense	13	51% (94)	41% (63)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (83)	1.6 (73)	30% (106)	30% (71)	.42 (112)	5% (116)	2.2 (105)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Defense	13	50% (77)	36% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (25)	1.7 (94)	39% (2)	26% (19)	.21 (21)	6% (86)	2.1 (74)
MINN Offense	13	40% (121)	36% (116)	12.6	24	143.4	6	11.4	16 (92)	11 (68)	.1 (123)	1.6 (53)	29% (26)	27% (99)	.16 (117)	6% (52)	1.9 (106)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 530.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.26 Minnesota: 12.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.6 Minnesota: 10.4

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 12.545 #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
2024 Talent Rating: 417.00 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 30
Minnesota 18

Projected Total Points: 48

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Minnesota	25	Penn State	26	Penn State -11	Minnesota	45.0	Over
2022	10/22	Penn State	45	Minnesota	17	Penn State -5.5	Penn State	43.0	Over
2019	11/09	Minnesota	31	Penn State	26	Penn State -7.0	Minnesota	49.0	Over
2016	10/01	Penn State	29	Minnesota	26	Penn State -4	Minnesota	54.5	Over
2013	11/09	Minnesota	24	Penn State	10	Minnesota -2.5	Minnesota	47.5	Under
2010	10/23	Minnesota	21	Penn State	33
2009	10/17	Penn State	20	Minnesota	0
2006	10/07	Minnesota	27	Penn State	28
2005	10/01	Penn State	44	Minnesota	14
2004	10/02	Minnesota	16	Penn State	7
2003	09/27	Penn State	14	Minnesota	20
2000	10/06	Minnesota	25	Penn State	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	5	4	4 Overs
Penn State	7	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 4	4 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 8	1 - 4	0 - 2	1 - 2

(#6) PSU at (#32) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PSU	MINN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#6	#32
SP+SP+	#5	#27
Perf GradeGrade	#12	#24
OffenseOff	#15	#43
DefenseDef	#16	#25
Spec TeamsST	#62	#1
TalentTal	#11	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	#15	#48

Penn State Injury Report

Minnesota Notes(11/29) Killed Wisky. R Def all 24 car/36 yds. QB/RB good
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent
(7/30) OL returns 3/5, RB v good, Run game good LY
Minnesota Injury Report

Penn State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	MINN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#25
SuccessSuc	#25	#75
ExplosiveExp	#124	#75
PPAPPA	#40	#93
PowerPwr	#2	#14
SP+SP+	#9	#11
Pts POPPO	#5	#129
HavocHav	#4	#131

Penn State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#21	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	#17	#90
Run ExplRExp	#123	#63
PPAExp	#46	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#14	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#91
TackleTak	-	#89

Penn State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#43
Pass SuccessPSuc	#53	#63
Pass ExplPExl	#115	#73
PPAExp	#62	#83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#89	#68
F7 HavocF7	#8	#132
DB HavocDB	#7	#116

Minnesota on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	PSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#43	#16
SuccessSuc	#87	#3
ExplosiveExp	#128	#101
PPAPPA	#118	#8
PowerPwr	#37	#7
SP+SP+	#79	#4
Pts POPPO	#73	#15
HavocHav	#14	#2

Minnesota Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#74	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#3
Run ExplRExp	#127	#46
PPAExp	#92	#7
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#40	#3
TackleTak	-	#81

Minnesota Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#116	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#94
PPAExp	#123	#25
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#78	#10
F7 HavocF7	#13	#1
DB HavocDB	#52	#86

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Penn State 11.0 (45.0)
Penn State won at Minnesota this year (26-25)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Minnesota in 2024 (26-25)

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	262	394	67%	3327	24	8	8.4
Beau Pribula	26	35	74%	275	5	1	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	220	1108	8	5.0	32
Nicholas Singleton	172	1099	12	6.4	58
Drew Allar	96	302	6	3.1	22
Beau Pribula	38	242	4	6.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler Warren	104	1233	8	11.9	38
Harrison Wallace III	47	732	4	15.6	50
Omari Evans	20	403	5	20.2	59
Nicholas Singleton	41	375	5	9.1	27

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Tom Allen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1
Zakee Wheatley	86	3	1	0	4
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Dani Dennis-Sutton	40	13	9	9	3
Amin Vanover	21	5	4	3	1
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elliot Washington II	25	1	0	6
Cam Miller	23	3	2	5
A.J. Harris (Tr)	41	3	0	5

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)	268	403	67%	2829	18	6	7.0
Drake Lindsey	4	5	80%	50	1	0	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	205	986	10	4.8	80
Marcus Major (Tr)	78	352	3	4.5	40
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	19	123	0	6.5	18
Jordan Nubin	11	19	0	1.7	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	75	863	4	11.5	39
Elijah Spencer	52	685	6	13.2	29
Darius Taylor	54	350	2	6.5	22
Jameson Geers	27	286	4	10.6	23

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cody Lindenberg	94	5	1	3	6
Maverick Baranowski	65	5	1	1	2
Kerry Brown	63	3	0	0	4
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Smith	27	12	6	10	1
Jack Henderson	44	9	6	1	1
Danny Striggow	52	6	5	6	1
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Walley	42	2	1	1	10
Ethan Robinson (Tr)	42	3	0	0	9
Jah Joyner	32	6	5	9	7