Penn State at Purdue - 2024 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo   Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers  Purdue logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Penn State -30 (51.5) (-10000)  Open: -28.0
Penn State 49 - Purdue: 10  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -39  (SP+ PSU -41)
Projected Score: PSU: 46 - PUR: 7 (52)
PSU Win prob: 99% | Cover: 54%
PSU Travel: 476 miles
Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (21 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Penn State at West Virginia-7.548.0W 34 - 12UY
Sat 9/7 Penn State vs Bowling Green-35.551.5W 34 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Penn State vs Kent State-49.058.0W 56 - 0UY
Sat 9/28 Penn State vs Illinois-19.548.0W 21 - 7UN
Sat 10/5 Penn State vs UCLA-30.048.0W 27 - 11UN
Sat 10/12 Penn State at USC-3.551.5W 33 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Penn State at Wisconsin-6.547.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 11/2 Penn State vs Ohio State+3.047.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 11/9 Penn State vs Washington-13.548.0W 35 - 6UY
Sat 11/16 Penn State at Purdue-30.051.5W 49 - 10OY
Sat 11/23 Penn State at Minnesota-11.045.0W 26 - 25ON
Sat 11/30 Penn State vs Maryland-26.550.5W 44 - 7OY
Sat 12/7 Penn State vs Oregon+3.551.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 12/21 Penn State vs SMU-9.052.5W 38 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Penn State vs Boise State-11.554.5W 31 - 14UY
Thu 1/9 Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5L 24 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Purdue's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Purdue vs Indiana State-35.552.5W 49 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Purdue vs Notre Dame+11.545.5L 7 - 66ON
Sat 9/21 Purdue at Oregon State+1.551.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/28 Purdue vs Nebraska+10.047.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 10/5 Purdue at Wisconsin+12.044.5L 6 - 52ON
Sat 10/12 Purdue at Illinois+22.547.5L 49 - 50OY
Fri 10/18 Purdue vs Oregon+30.061.0L 0 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Purdue vs Northwestern-3.044.5L 20 - 26ON
Sat 11/9 Purdue at Ohio State+37.555.5L 0 - 45UN
Sat 11/16 Purdue vs Penn State+30.051.5L 10 - 49ON
Fri 11/22 Purdue at Michigan State+14.049.0L 17 - 24UY
Sat 11/30 Purdue at Indiana+28.556.5L 0 - 66ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#40 (.25)46% (25)3149% (17)3.38 (14)18543% (53)2154.96 (5)#8 (.04)33% (3)20.531% (3)36% (10)3.09 (15)43.30.61.8
PUR#86 (.16)42% (60)18.845% (51)3.16 (60)16941% (78)2113.21 (112)#74 (.19)40% (44)31.841% (45)40% (52)4.28 (112)57.61.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PUR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.646.3%4.960.6234001852154.750%49%49%43%11%.25
PUR Defense1231.83040.2%4.281.5 - - - - - 51%49%41%40%17%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.233.1%3.091.8 - - - - - 49%50%31%36%23%.04
PUR Offense1218.820.942.5%3.211.5203801692114.451%48%45%41%18%.16

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1332:3022.541%77%543.30.61.87.83.8333.8
Purdue1230:2520.436%39%657.61.51.55.82.8129.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1350% (65)49% (17)39.6184.84.726 (30).19 (46)3.38 (14)73% (77)7% (8)0.85 (123)
PUR Defense1251% (80)41% (45) - - - - .08 (31)3 (48)68% (41)11% (38)0.97 (53)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1349% (52)31% (3) - - - - -.04 (7)2.23 (2)76% (89)18% (1)0.96 (46)
PUR Offense1251% (55)45% (51)38.5168.84.420 (61).15 (69)3.16 (60)54% (133)12% (118)0.98 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349% (63)43% (53)18.931.72156.811.430 (16)2 (1).3 (62)1.5 (115)27% (9)35% (23).38 (50)4% (7)1.7 (129)
PUR Defense1249% (56)40% (52) - - - - - - 10 (67).33 (102)1.8 (121)33% (50)32% (93).38 (101)6% (73)2.2 (96)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1350% (77)36% (10) - - - - - - 12 (37).2 (25)1.7 (94)39% (2)26% (19).21 (21)6% (86)2.1 (74)
PUR Offense1248% (81)41% (78)19.532.7211.26.510.815 (96)10 (56).22 (89)1.5 (111)31% (56)30% (75).31 (75)6% (71)2.1 (58)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.26  #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70  #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50  #7
2024 Talent Rating: 530.00  #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42%  #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6  #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5  #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1  #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.26   Purdue: -14.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.6   Purdue: -16.2




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -14.71  #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91  #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82  #134
2024 Talent Rating: 382.00  #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 12  #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2  #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2  #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6  #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 46
Purdue 7

Projected Total Points: 52
Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Purdue10Penn State49Penn State -30Penn State51.5Over
202209/01Purdue31Penn State35Penn State -3.5Penn State53.5Over
201910/05Penn State35Purdue7Penn State -28.5Purdue55.5Under
201610/29Purdue24Penn State62Penn State -10.5Penn State58.5Over
201311/16Penn State45Purdue21Penn State -20.5Penn State0
201211/03Purdue9Penn State34
201110/15Penn State23Purdue18
200810/04Purdue6Penn State20
200711/03Penn State26Purdue19
200610/28Purdue0Penn State12
200510/29Penn State33Purdue15
200410/09Penn State13Purdue20
200310/11Purdue28Penn State14
200009/29Penn State22Purdue20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue213 Overs
Penn State1241 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 71 - 41 - 10 - 3
Road Teams7 - 74 - 13 - 01 - 1

(#6) PSU at (#120) PUR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUPUR
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #6 #120
SP+SP+ #5 #121
Perf GradeGrade #12 #123
OffenseOff #15 #91
DefenseDef #16 #132
Spec TeamsST #62 #66
TalentTal #11 #44
Blue ChipsBC% #15 #35
Purdue Notes
(12/8) Hired HC Barry Odom (UNLV)
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful
(9/15) Run Def awful, 364 (8.5 ypc), Off 25/38 (1.5) vs ND
Purdue Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffPUR Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #15 #132
SuccessSuc #25 #44
ExplosiveExp #124 #103
PPAPPA #40 #74
PowerPwr #2 #134
SP+SP+ #9 #110
Pts POPPO #5 #112
HavocHav #4 #48
Penn State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #21 #112
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #45
Run ExplRExp #123 #53
PPAExp #46 #31
Run BlockR Blk #57 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #48
Stuff RateStuff #2 #50
TackleTak -  #111
Penn State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #6 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #52
Pass ExplPExl #115 #121
PPAExp #62 #102
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #89 #97
F7 HavocF7 #8 #38
DB HavocDB #7 #73
Purdue on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatPUR OffPSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #91 #16
SuccessSuc #60 #3
ExplosiveExp #109 #101
PPAPPA #86 #8
PowerPwr #94 #7
SP+SP+ #116 #4
Pts POPPO #112 #15
HavocHav #106 #2
Purdue Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
PUR OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #84 #27
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #3
Run ExplRExp #76 #46
PPAExp #69 #7
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #2
Stuff RateStuff #107 #3
TackleTak -  #81
Purdue Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatPUR OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #72 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #10
Pass ExplPExl #111 #94
PPAExp #89 #25
Pass Block/RushP Blk #99 #10
F7 HavocF7 #118 #1
DB HavocDB #71 #86
Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Penn State 30.0 (51.5)
Penn State won at Purdue this year (49-10)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Purdue in 2024 (49-10)

  
PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar26239467%33272488.4
Beau Pribula263574%275517.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen220110885.032
Nicholas Singleton1721099126.458
Drew Allar9630263.122
Beau Pribula3824246.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyler Warren1041233811.938
Harrison Wallace III47732415.650
Omari Evans20403520.259
Nicholas Singleton4137559.127

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Tom Allen (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Reed957312
Kobe King878311
Zakee Wheatley863104
Abdul Carter62241294
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Abdul Carter62241294
Dani Dennis-Sutton4013993
Amin Vanover215431
Jaylen Reed957312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II251006
Cam Miller233025
A.J. Harris (Tr)413005

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hudson Card14424858%1641976.6
Ryan Browne437657%532427.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee13868745.063
Reggie Love III (Tr)8337224.522
Ryan Browne5015503.123
Elijah Jackson697116.269
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Max Klare51685413.462
Jahmal Edrine23365215.953
Jaron Tibbs25305212.238
Devin Mockobee17170110.021

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1045106
Kydran Jenkins8313751
Yanni Karlaftis572121
Will Heldt5610550
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kydran Jenkins8313751
Will Heldt5610550
Nyland Green (Tr)232205
Cole Brevard196200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1045106
Nyland Green (Tr)232205
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)402014