Minnesota at Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview
Minnesota logo Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Wolverines(#21)Michigan logo
Saturday, September 28th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan -10.5 (34.5) (-410)  Open: -11.0
Michigan 27 - Minnesota: 24  (Big Ten)

 
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (10 - 2 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (50 - 34)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (23 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MICH is playing their 5th straight game
MINN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -0.5   (SP+ MICH -0)

Projected Score: MINN: 19 - MICH: 20 (39)
MICH Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
MINN Travel: 509 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wolverines (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 20 (27 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Minnesota vs North Carolina+2.052.5L 17 - 19UY
Sat 9/7 Minnesota vs Rhode Island-27.547.5W 48 - 0OY
Sat 9/14 Minnesota vs Nevada-17.544.5W 27 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Minnesota vs Iowa+3.034.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 9/28 Minnesota at Michigan+10.534.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/5 Minnesota vs USC+8.545.5W 24 - 17UY
Sat 10/12 Minnesota at UCLA-3.539.0W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Minnesota vs Maryland-6.045.0W 48 - 23OY
Sat 11/2 Minnesota at Illinois-2.547.0W 25 - 17UY
Sat 11/9 Minnesota at Rutgers-6.544.5L 19 - 26ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Minnesota vs Penn State+11.045.0L 25 - 26OY
Fri 11/29 Minnesota at Wisconsin-1.540.5W 24 - 7UY
Fri 1/3 Minnesota vs Virginia Tech-10.043.5W 24 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Michigan vs Fresno State-21.048.0W 30 - 10UN
Sat 9/7 Michigan vs Texas+7.042.0L 12 - 31ON
Sat 9/14 Michigan vs Arkansas State-22.047.5W 28 - 18UN
Sat 9/21 Michigan vs USC+4.044.0W 27 - 24OY
Sat 9/28 Michigan vs Minnesota-10.534.5W 27 - 24ON
Sat 10/5 Michigan at Washington+1.539.5L 17 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Michigan at Illinois-6.044.0L 7 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Michigan vs Michigan State-3.539.0W 24 - 17OY
Sat 11/2 Michigan vs Oregon+14.545.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/9 Michigan at Indiana+14.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.535.5W 50 - 6OY
Sat 11/30 Michigan at Ohio State+20.541.5W 13 - 10UY
Tue 12/31 Michigan vs Alabama+16.545.5W 19 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)26.244% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)16.936% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)2241% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)19.938% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)44% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)36% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Offense1326.222.644.9%4.380.8193071032043.744%56%44%46%16%.2
MICH Defense1319.92138.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Defense1316.918.838.9%3.321.5 - - - - - 50%50%36%42%19%.08
MICH Offense132226.940.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Minnesota1329:1318.545%90%4.535.60.81.54.41.8228.6
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Offense1344% (111)44% (65)28.2102.93.717 (84).11 (80)2.7 (119)73% (69)10% (80)0.88 (113)
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Defense1350% (63)36% (8) - - - - .02 (19)2.71 (22)74% (69)9% (90)0.95 (50)
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Offense1356% (25)46% (29)19.529.2204.1710.518 (68)5 (6).27 (58)1.4 (129)30% (46)31% (80).32 (76)6% (70)2 (75)
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Defense1350% (71)42% (80) - - - - - - 16 (10).15 (27)1.3 (6)33% (43)26% (16).15 (10)10% (1)1.8 (20)
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 9.69 #32
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Minnesota's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Minnesota's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 9.69   Michigan: 10.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 10.4   Michigan: 10.6




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Michigan's Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.6
Defense: 16.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.8

Minnesota's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 2 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 20
Minnesota 19


Total Points: 39

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.9
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Michigan27Minnesota24MichiganMichigan -10.5Minnesota34.5Over
202310/07Minnesota10Michigan52MichiganMichigan -18.5Michigan46.0Over
202010/24Minnesota24Michigan49MichiganMichigan -3Michigan53.0Over
201711/04Michigan33Minnesota10MichiganMichigan -16Michigan39.5Over
201510/31Minnesota26Michigan29MichiganMichigan -10Minnesota39.5Over
201409/27Michigan14Minnesota30MinnesotaMichigan -9.5Minnesota0
201310/05Michigan42Minnesota13MichiganMichigan -21Michigan0
201211/03Minnesota13Michigan35Michigan
201110/01Michigan58Minnesota0Michigan
200811/08Minnesota6Michigan29Michigan
200710/27Michigan34Minnesota10Michigan
200609/30Minnesota14Michigan28Michigan
200510/08Michigan20Minnesota23Minnesota
200410/09Michigan27Minnesota24Michigan
200310/10Minnesota35Michigan38Michigan
200211/09Minnesota24Michigan41Michigan
200111/10Michigan31Minnesota10Michigan
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan1545 Overs
Minnesota230 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 103 - 42 - 21 - 2
Road Teams10 - 74 - 32 - 12 - 2

(#32) Minnesota Info
Power Rating: 9.69 #32
Offense Rating: 23.19 #37
Defense Rating: 3.27 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #11
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.32 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Minnesota has lost 1 straight
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (4 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Minnesota Notes
(11/23) Fight w/ PSU. Off awful, 2 TO's, coaching cost
(11/13) WTF gag vs Gers, Rgame 19 att/35 yds! Def bad
(11/2) Even w/ Ill, forced 2 TOs. Brosmer/Rgame enough
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 17 Def TO's, 2nd in CFB
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def great, clutch W @ UCLA
(10/4) Pass 60% = avg success. Rgame 3.4 ypc, 100 ypg
(9/28) Rgame is shockingly awful. Brosmer OK vs Mich
(9/1) Run game awful vs NC, Brosmer bad, have no WR
(8/28) Is RB Taylor healthy? Check warmups vs NC
(8/1) QB Brosmer (N Hampshire) looks fun, WR decent

Minnesota Highlights
Minnesota offense is good in red zone (#93)
Minnesota offense is good on 3rd downs
Minnesota defense does not give up big plays (#83)
Minnesota defense is really good in red zone (#77)
Minnesota has a good run defense (#6)
Minnesota Defensive Line is very good (#9)
Minnesota Secondary is very good (#76)
Minnesota has a great TO Margin (#82)
Minnesota commits very few Penalties (#38)
Minnesota defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Minnesota Deficiencies
Minnesota Can Not Run the Ball (#49)
Minnesota offense is not Explosive (#72)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMICHMINN
OverallOver#17#18
OffenseOff#80#37
DefenseDef#5#19
Special TeamsST#34#1
PassingPass#100#11
RushingRush#41#53
Run BlockRBLK#55#29
Pass BlockPBLK#77#68
Route RunningWR Rt#82#53
TacklingTkl#9#77
Run DefenseR Def#2#18
Pass Rush DefPRush#1#60
Coverage DefCov#57#33

Rematch from Week 5
Michigan -10.5 (34.5)
Michigan won vs Minnesota this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Minnesota last year (27-24)
Michigan beat Minnesota in 2023 (52-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MINN | MICH
Depth Chart: MINN | MICH
Rosters: MINN | MICH
(#43) Michigan Info
Power Rating: 10.355 #43
Offense Rating: 12.94 #116
Defense Rating: 7.69 #51
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.6 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #10
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.18 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Michigan has won 2 straight
Michigan has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 2 (3 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Michigan Notes
(12/11) Hired OC Chip Lindsey? (NC, UCF, Troy HC)
(12/3) Fired OC Kirk Campbell after the season
(12/1) Beat OSU again, Rgame tough, Def incredible
(11/13) Great 2nd H vs IU, nearly won. Off just sucks
(10/28) QB Tuttle retired after 5th concussion
(10/20) Star CB Johnson left Ill game (inj)
(10/19) Off gained yds but 3 TOs killed em. Bad team
(10/14) Replaced LT (worst PFF graded LT), shuffling OL
(10/10) Staff needs changing. DC Wink has to go
(10/6) QB Tuttle healthy, playing. Didn't matter vs UW

Michigan Highlights
Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#16)

Michigan has a really good defense (#65)
Michigan has a good run defense (#59)
Michigan Defensive Line is very good (#68)
Michigan Secondary is very good (#34)
Michigan commits very few Penalties (#49)

Michigan Deficiencies
Michigan offense is really bad (#99)
Michigan offense is not Explosive (#10)
Michigan run game is really bad (#103)


  
Minnesota's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Max Brosmer (Tr)26840367%28291867.0
Drake Lindsey4580%501010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor205986104.880
Marcus Major (Tr)7835234.540
Jaren Mangham (Tr)1912306.518
Jordan Nubin111901.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Jackson75863411.539
Elijah Spencer52685613.229
Darius Taylor5435026.522
Jameson Geers27286410.623

View Minnesota's Full Roster
Minnesota's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Lindenberg945136
Maverick Baranowski655112
Kerry Brown633004
Danny Striggow526561
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith27126101
Jack Henderson449611
Danny Striggow526561
Jah Joyner326597
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Walley4221110
Ethan Robinson (Tr)423009
Jah Joyner326597

Michigan's OC Kirk Campbell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Davis Warren13320764%1198795.8
Jack Tuttle305060%306126.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kalel Mullings185948125.163
Donovan Edwards12858944.641
Alex Orji5726914.729
Jordan Marshall3112003.924
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Colston Loveland56582510.436
Tyler Morris23248210.828
Semaj Morgan2713915.131
Fredrick Moore11128111.620

View Michigan's Full Roster
Michigan's DC Don Martindale
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ernest Hausmann897221
Jaishawn Barham (Tr)664152
Mason Graham467431
Makari Paige451004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josaiah Stewart3313970
TJ Guy327660
Derrick Moore236442
Mason Graham467431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry373029
Jyaire Hill356108
Quinten Johnson431005