UCLA at Penn State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -30 (48.0) (-9000) Open: -27.5
Penn State 27 - UCLA: 11 (Big Ten)

Bruins (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach DeShaun Foster (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 33 (17 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PSU 4th straight Home Game
UCLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -27.5 (SP+ PSU -26)
Projected Score: UCLA: 11 - PSU: 39 (50)
PSU Win prob: 99% | Cover: 54%
UCLA Travel: 2237 miles, 3 hrs behind

Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCLA Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCLA's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UCLA at Hawai'i	-13.5	55.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	UCLA vs Indiana	+3.5	46.5	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/21	UCLA at LSU	+21.5	56.5	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/28	UCLA vs Oregon	+23.5	54.5	L 13 - 34	U	Y
Sat 10/5	UCLA at Penn State	+30.0	48.0	L 11 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/12	UCLA vs Minnesota	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCLA at Rutgers	+4.0	42.5	W 35 - 32	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	UCLA at Nebraska	+7.5	38.5	W 27 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/8	UCLA vs Iowa	+6.5	44.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/15	UCLA at Washington	+4.5	47.0	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/23	UCLA vs USC	+5.0	53.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/30	UCLA vs Fresno State	-7.5	46.5	W 20 - 13	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCLA's Schedule

Penn State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Penn State at West Virginia	-7.5	48.0	W 34 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Penn State vs Bowling Green	-35.5	51.5	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Penn State vs Kent State	-49.0	58.0	W 56 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Penn State vs Illinois	-19.5	48.0	W 21 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/5	Penn State vs UCLA	-30.0	48.0	W 27 - 11	U	N
Sat 10/12	Penn State at USC	-3.5	51.5	W 33 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Penn State at Wisconsin	-6.5	47.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Penn State vs Ohio State	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/9	Penn State vs Washington	-13.5	48.0	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Penn State at Purdue	-30.0	51.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Penn State at Minnesota	-11.0	45.0	W 26 - 25	O	N
Sat 11/30	Penn State vs Maryland	-26.5	50.5	W 44 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Penn State vs Oregon	+3.5	51.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/21	Penn State vs SMU	-9.0	52.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Penn State vs Boise State	-11.5	54.5	W 31 - 14	U	Y
Thu 1/9	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-1.5	45.5	L 24 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA	#73 (.18)	42% (71)	18.2	44% (55)	3.27 (37)	198	40% (88)	229	3.11 (120)	#11 (.08)	37% (18)	33.4	37% (24)	37% (18)	3.16 (19)	58.1	1.7	1.8
PSU	#40 (.25)	46% (25)	31	49% (17)	3.38 (14)	185	43% (53)	215	4.96 (5)	#8 (.04)	33% (3)	20.5	31% (3)	36% (10)	3.09 (15)	43.3	0.6	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Offense	13	18.2	16.8	41.8%	3.11	1.7	21	427	198	229	4.9	51%	49%	44%	40%	17%	.18
PSU Defense	13	20.5	15.1	33.1%	3.09	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	31%	36%	23%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCLA Defense	13	33.4	32.2	36.7%	3.16	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	37%	37%	21%	.08
PSU Offense	13	31	34	46.3%	4.96	0.6	23	400	185	215	4.7	50%	49%	49%	43%	11%	.25

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCLA	13	29:01	21.4	44%	47%	7.1	58.1	1.7	1.8	8.1	3.2	0	29.9
Penn State	13	32:30	22.5	41%	77%	5	43.3	0.6	1.8	7.8	3.8	3	33.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Offense	13	51% (63)	44% (55)	40.5	197.9	4.9	21 (54)	.21 (37)	3.27 (37)	70% (95)	10% (75)	1.07 (33)
PSU Defense	13	49% (52)	31% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (7)	2.23 (2)	76% (89)	18% (1)	0.96 (46)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCLA Defense	13	42% (7)	37% (24)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (6)	2.64 (10)	55% (4)	14% (5)	0.84 (9)
PSU Offense	13	50% (65)	49% (17)	39.6	184.8	4.7	26 (30)	.19 (46)	3.38 (14)	73% (77)	7% (8)	0.85 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Offense	13	49% (66)	40% (88)	18.3	31.5	229.2	7.3	12.5	24 (41)	14 (107)	.16 (107)	1.6 (58)	32% (73)	33% (54)	.28 (89)	7% (92)	1.9 (118)
PSU Defense	13	50% (77)	36% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (25)	1.7 (94)	39% (2)	26% (19)	.21 (21)	6% (86)	2.1 (74)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCLA Defense	13	57% (128)	37% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.2 (32)	1.6 (52)	37% (9)	28% (34)	.29 (54)	7% (51)	2.1 (86)
PSU Offense	13	49% (63)	43% (53)	18.9	31.7	215	6.8	11.4	30 (16)	2 (1)	.3 (62)	1.5 (115)	27% (9)	35% (23)	.38 (50)	4% (7)	1.7 (129)

UCLA's Power Ratings
UCLA's Power Rating: 0.54 #61
UCLA's Offense Rating: 16.06 #103
UCLA's Defense Rating: 12.38 #94
2024 Talent Rating: 368.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #31
UCLA's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCLA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #75
UCLA's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
UCLA's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3 #44

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
UCLA: 0.54 Penn State: 26.93

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCLA: -1.3 Penn State: 24.6

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 26.93 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 530.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

UCLA Scoring
Offense: 18.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.8
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

UCLA's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 39
UCLA 11

Projected Total Points: 50

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	UCLA	42	Penn State	37	Penn State -24.5	UCLA	48.5	Over
2024	10/05	Penn State	27	UCLA	11	Penn State -30	UCLA	48.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	1	0	1 Overs
UCLA	1	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#61) UCLA at (#6) PSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCLA	PSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#61	#6
SP+SP+	#75	#5
Perf GradeGrade	#110	#12
OffenseOff	#115	#15
DefenseDef	#91	#16
Spec TeamsST	#88	#62
TalentTal	#50	#11
Blue ChipsBC%	#31	#15

UCLA Notes(12/29) Signed QB Aguilar (Gr, App St)
(12/5) Fired OC Bieniemy after one season
(12/5) Hired IU Co-OC Tino Sunseri
(11/24) Off 3-11 on 3rd, 0-3 4th, 13 pts in L (USC)
(11/18) Garbers bad, Rgame abysmal in Wash L, Def good
(11/13) 3 W's w/ Iowa, Garbers good, Rgame good in W
(11/2) 2 straight Road W's, fighting hard. Garbers good
(10/28) -5.7 ppg via TOs, near last in CFB thru 7 games
(10/22) Def stop rate 47% (#124) into week 9
(10/19) Hung 35, torched Gers, Garbers great, Rgame bad
(10/18) Has not scored < 17 pts in any game to date
(10/13) Rgame awful, Run Def good. Hard L to Minn
UCLA Injury Report

Penn State Injury Report

UCLA on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	PSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#115	#16
SuccessSuc	#71	#3
ExplosiveExp	#47	#101
PPAPPA	#73	#8
PowerPwr	#103	#7
SP+SP+	#103	#4
Pts POPPO	#120	#15
HavocHav	#83	#2

UCLA Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#132	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	#55	#3
Run ExplRExp	#33	#46
PPAExp	#37	#7
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#37	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#3
TackleTak	-	#81

UCLA Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	UCLA Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#81	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	#88	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#58	#94
PPAExp	#107	#25
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#122	#10
F7 HavocF7	#75	#1
DB HavocDB	#92	#86

Penn State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	UCLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#91
SuccessSuc	#25	#18
ExplosiveExp	#124	#45
PPAPPA	#40	#11
PowerPwr	#2	#94
SP+SP+	#9	#44
Pts POPPO	#5	#19
HavocHav	#4	#8

Penn State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	UCLA Def
Run GameRun	#21	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#17	#24
Run ExplRExp	#123	#9
PPAExp	#46	#6
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	#14	#10
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#4
TackleTak	-	#53

Penn State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	PSU Off	UCLA Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#53	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#115	#52
PPAExp	#62	#32
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#89	#117
F7 HavocF7	#8	#5
DB HavocDB	#7	#51

Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

UCLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Penn State -30.0 (48.0)
Penn State won vs UCLA this year (27-11)

Previous Matchups
UCLA beat Penn State last year (42-37)
Penn State beat UCLA in 2024 (27-11)

UCLA's OC Eric Bieniemy (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Garbers	235	363	65%	2727	16	11	7.5
Justyn Martin	24	35	69%	179	1	0	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Harden	124	505	2	4.1	40
Keegan Jones	47	179	1	3.8	22
Jalen Berger	48	178	0	3.7	18
Ethan Garbers	83	137	1	1.7	57

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Moliki Matavao	41	506	2	12.3	35
TJ Harden	40	368	1	9.2	53
Logan Loya	29	348	4	12.0	29
Kwazi Gilmer	31	345	2	11.1	48

View UCLA's Full Roster

UCLA's DC Ikaika Malloe (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Carson Schwesinger	136	9	4	3	3
Kain Medrano	72	11	2	4	4
Oluwafemi Oladejo	57	14	5	6	2
KJ Wallace	49	9	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Oluwafemi Oladejo	57	14	5	6	2
Carson Schwesinger	136	9	4	3	3
Devin Aupiu	15	5	2	1	1
Kain Medrano	72	11	2	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KJ Wallace	49	9	1	1	10
Kaylin Moore (Tr)	37	2	0	1	9
Bryan Addison (Tr)	43	1	0	0	5

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	262	394	67%	3327	24	8	8.4
Beau Pribula	26	35	74%	275	5	1	7.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	220	1108	8	5.0	32
Nicholas Singleton	172	1099	12	6.4	58
Drew Allar	96	302	6	3.1	22
Beau Pribula	38	242	4	6.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler Warren	104	1233	8	11.9	38
Harrison Wallace III	47	732	4	15.6	50
Omari Evans	20	403	5	20.2	59
Nicholas Singleton	41	375	5	9.1	27

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Tom Allen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1
Zakee Wheatley	86	3	1	0	4
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Dani Dennis-Sutton	40	13	9	9	3
Amin Vanover	21	5	4	3	1
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elliot Washington II	25	1	0	6
Cam Miller	23	3	2	5
A.J. Harris (Tr)	41	3	0	5